The Recession the Unemployment Rate Can't See | Eric Pachman on the Data Beneath the Jobs Report

Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful.
Eric Pachman on X
x.com/EricPachman
Data 4 The People
data4thepeople.com
Main topics covered
• Why the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market stories

• Why unemployment may miss weakening labor force participation and disappearing working-age Americans

• The decline in participation among older workers and men

• How healthcare and Medicaid-funded care have become the engine of U.S. job growth

• Why Medicaid cuts could create a major employment and consumer spending risk

• What occupational wage data reveals about the quality of new jobs and home healthcare pay

• The differences between CPI, PCE and core inflation and why the standard measures can be misleading

• How crude oil grades, refinery design and 3-2-1 crack spreads shape energy prices

• Why falling diesel inventories could spread inflation through transportation, food and retail

• What the single-income stress test reveals about household fragility, poverty and multiple-job holders

• How Data 4 The People is using AI to build public-interest data research tools

Timestamps
00:00 Intro
04:41 Why the unemployment rate can miss a labor crisis
11:24 Healthcare jobs, aging America and the Medicaid care economy
18:44 The Wage Ledger and the hidden quality of U.S. job growth
24:18 Why inflation is moving higher
30:48 Why every equity investor needs to understand oil
36:00 Crack spreads and the refinery mismatch problem
44:05 Why diesel is the inflation risk that matters most
48:34 The single-income stress test and consumer fragility
54:42 Data 4 The People's nonprofit mission
59:00 Building an AI research assistant for public data
01:03:37 Where to follow Eric and Data 4 The People
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No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.