The Signal Before the Spike | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Tell Us About What Comes Next

This episode explores the growing signs of a shift beneath the surface of the market, as technical indicators point to weakening momentum in equities and a potential change in leadership. Katie Stockton joins the show to break down what recent signals in the S&P 500, oil, gold, and sector rotation are telling us about where markets may be headed next.
We cover the implications of a new monthly MACD sell signal, the importance of market breadth and leadership, and how investors can interpret shifting trends across asset classes using a disciplined technical framework.

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Topics Covered:
• Why a new monthly MACD sell signal may signal a longer, choppier market phase

• The difference between fast corrections and slow grind bear phases

• Key S&P 500 support levels and what a breakdown could mean for downside risk

• How technical indicators help filter noise in headline-driven markets

• The breakout in crude oil and what it signals about a potential new cycle

• Whether sharp price moves are sustainable or likely to reverse

• Understanding overbought and oversold conditions across different timeframes

• Why mega-cap weakness is critical to overall market direction

• The shift from growth to value and what it means for investors

• Sector rotation trends and where leadership is emerging in 2025

• What gold’s recent run and emerging weakness signal for safe haven assets

• How a systematic, technical approach can help manage drawdowns and re-entry timing

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
04:18 S&P 500 momentum deterioration and MACD sell signal
08:09 Key support levels and downside scenarios for equities
12:53 Crude oil breakout and implications for a new cycle
16:01 What overbought and oversold really mean in practice
20:04 Mega-cap weakness and shifting market leadership
24:41 Concentration risk in investor portfolios
27:52 Value vs growth rotation and cycle dynamics
32:13 Market breadth and confirmation signals
36:19 Moving averages, death cross, and trend interpretation
39:56 Inside the TAC ETF and sector rotation strategy
44:04 Gold trends and why consolidation may be next
47:00 Key signals to watch going forward