The Three Cracks in the AI Trade | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail the Market's Biggest Bet

In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index mechanics are saying about where markets could go next.
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Topics Covered:
• Why markets are looking through war, oil shocks and valuation concerns

• How earnings estimates are driving sector performance in the AI trade

• Aahan Menon on growth, inflation, oil prices and macro regime signals

• Why demand destruction from higher energy prices can take longer than investors expect

• What a rising growth and rising inflation regime can mean for stocks, commodities and bonds

• Ben Hunt on World War AI and the collision between AI market optimism and political backlash

• Why opposition to AI data centers could become a major market and election issue

• Brent Kochuba on call buying, implied volatility and signs of options market froth

• Why CORE 1M and skew signals may be warning of a downside spasm

• How the SpaceX IPO could affect index flows, active managers and mega-cap stocks

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro: AI, inflation and options risk in one market
05:40 Earnings estimates, AI optimism and why fundamentals still matter
10:31 Aahan Menon on a difficult macro backdrop
15:29 Why energy shocks and demand destruction take time
20:24 Why inflation can persist even if the oil shock eases
24:47 Ben Hunt on World War AI and the AI resource build-out
30:00 AI CapEx as the pillar holding up market optimism
34:00 The political backlash against AI data centers
38:00 Why data center opposition matters for markets
42:09 Why price action can distort the AI narrative
47:48 CORE 1M, stretched call prices and downside spasm risk
52:00 Why Nasdaq options are priced for upside crashes
56:11 Index rules, human judgment and the SpaceX IPO
01:00:34 The free float problem and rebalancing pressure
01:05:22 Space data centers, valuation and the size of the AI opportunity