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Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
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Califoreboding
Many client questions I received last week in California were laden with a sense of foreboding: third rail questions about the US Federal debt as ten year yields blow through the Bessent Maginot line, the elevated share of US market returns
Rear Window
Over the last year, the Eye on the Market included views on sectors, rates and currencies. For this back-to-school piece, I prepared a rear window post-mortem on each. Watch the video (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institut
The Year of the Trojan Fire Horse
The Year of the Trojan Fire Horse: China’s imbalanced economy and unrelenting mercantilism While there’s plenty of evidence to support Stephen Roach’s thesis of unsustainable imbalances in China’s economy, China is living up to anthropomorp
The Summer I Turned Pretty
I mean pretty as an adverb, as in pretty cautious on cyber risks, open and closed weight challenges to the frontier labs seeking to go public and some market technicals related to AI. Watch the video (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man
Semiquincententacles
Semiquincententacles: The US grip on markets on the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence Behold the Aquilaceph, half-bald eagle and half-octopus. On the semiquincentennial 250th anniversary of the US Declaration of Independe
Home Alone: inflation and the new Fed chair; investing in China’s AI ecosystem; Prediction markets
The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McCallister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The latest on inflation, rising Treasury yields, shrinking equity risk premia and pressure from the White Ho
Abandon Ship!
Abandon Ship! Topics: midterm elections, Spring thaw in US economic data, Strait of Hormuz oil rationing timeline, AI and data center update, Gulf State pipe dream, Congressional redistricting and Mythos update Summary: Despite improving US
Salem’s Lot: Gulf War update; the Purge of senior US military officers; a US fossil fuel reliance fever dream
Salem’s Lot: an update on the Gulf War. Topics include international commodity price pass-throughs to the US, the limits of energy independence, Gulf temperatures and their relevance to US military options, the proposed Iranian toll on the
Fighting Words: The Energy Transition in 2026
Fighting Words. This year we look at energy arguments, battles and debates: the impact of data centers on power prices, the cost of solar plus storage as baseload power, the “primary energy fallacy” that ignores waste heat, the true cost of
Supply and The Mam
New York City now has one of the tightest housing markets since 1960. Watch the video (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/market-insights/eye-on-the-market/supply-and-the-mam#eotm_video)
Eye on the Market Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights
In this year’s EOTM Outlook by Michael Cembalest, we focus on four risks: US power generation constraints, China on its own, Taiwan and hyperscaler profits. View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insig
The Deep End: 2025 Alternative Investments Review
On the surface not much has changed since our last review two years ago. View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/market-insights/eye-on-the-market/the-deep-end/)
The winter of our discontent: generative AI disrupts the entertainment industry content moat
While the prior decade was defined by disruption in content distribution, the next decade will be defined by disruption in content creation, augmented by generative AI. This month’s Eye on the Market looks at the rapidly shifting fortunes i
Mad Libs: just fill in the blanks
Mad Libs. This piece is not about how mad liberals are at the administration, although the latest polling data indicates that it could be. Instead, it’s a fill-in-the-blank exercise regarding the impact of tariffs and immigration policy on
The Blob: Capital, China, Chips, Chicago and Chilliwack
In this piece, we look at the AI and data center takeover, and the OpenAI-Oracle deal; the US government equity investment in Intel, the origins of TSMC and how many countries support national champions via industrial policy; efforts in Chi
Fair Shakes
Assessing US earnings and economic trends during one of the broadest policy shifts since FDR; partisan redistricting, the Supreme Court, the Census and the balance in the US House of Representatives. View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com
Summer mailbag
Every summer, I answer questions from the Eye on the Market client mailbag. View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/market-insights/eye-on-the-market/summer-mailbag/)
Time Flies: Twenty Years of Eye on the Market
Take a look back at 30 standout insights which are just as relevant for the future as they were for the past. Explore our insights (https://www.jpmeyeonthemarket.com/)
"OK Boomer" on stablecoins, profits, tax cuts vs tariffs and presidential break-ups
Throughout history, non-FDIC insured short-term dollar denominated debt redeemable at par on demand has been prone to runs, whether in money market funds, repos or uninsured deposits. Why would lightly regulated stablecoins be any different
Chicken Hawks: a quick note on the US budget reconciliation bill
A brief note on the debt and deficit impacts of the House budget reconciliation bill, Henery Hawk and Foghorn Leghorn. View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/market-insights/eye-on-the-market/
Back to our Regularly Scheduled Programming
With some kind of tariff equilibrium possibly within reach, we return to some regularly scheduled programming: artificial intelligence and language models which were the primary drivers of equity markets before the trade wars began. View vi
Dogespierre Has Left The Building: DOGE’s impact on US government spending; Spanish Power outage; Trump Tracker
Like his predecessor Robespierre, Dogespierre (Elon Musk) also brought down the proverbial guillotine with indiscriminate cuts to Federal employment, contracts, leases and grants. With Dogespierre now stepping back to spend more time on his
Redacted
Straight talk from the CEO front lines on Liberation Day. Almost all the news on tariffs and declining CEO business confidence that’s fit to print, with only a few minor redactions. View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-manag
Fifty Days of Grey
Here’s the interesting thing about the stock market: it cannot be indicted, arrested or deported; it cannot be intimidated, threatened or bullied; it has no gender, ethnicity or religion; it cannot be fired, furloughed or defunded; it canno
Heliocentrism: Objects may be further away than they appear
Solar capacity is booming around the world, both utility scale and residential applications, and is often accompanied by energy storage whose costs are declining as well. Yet after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, so
From Here to Eternity
From Here to Eternity: tracking Trump’s economic, market and constitutional milestones Whether you’re elated or despondent about the blizzard of changes taking place in Washington, let me remind you of something: two years is an eternity in
Inauguruption: the flurry of Trump 2.0 executive orders
Trump 2.0 is a hodgepodge of distinctly American political strains: the bare-knuckled nationalism and anti-elitism of Andrew Jackson, the tariff-loving protectionism of William McKinley, the small-government/pro-business policies of Calvin
Eye on the Market Outlook 2025: The Alchemists
Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong? Sections include the AI Golden Goose, the invisible nuclear renaissance, DOGE Quixote, the two
The Year of Living Dangerously
I was visited by six ghosts recently warning me of dangers related to predictions, allocations, apparitions, legalizations, expurgations and ablations. Here’s what they said. View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/i
"Kamilton": the 2024 election and who tells your story
A reflection on the 2024 election and who tells your story. On Trump’s victory: market implications of a supply side boost from deregulation clashing against inflationary impulses of tariffs and deportations. The ten year Treasury will be t
