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The Thucydides cap on the China equity rebound trade
For participants in the China equity rebound trade: once you hit your return targets, take the money and run. Click here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/market-insights/eye-on-the-market/the-thucydides
Mind the Gap: a historically polarized US election
Candidate policy comparisons in a historically polarized US Election; China stimulus package The US is about to conduct its most polarized Presidential election in 100 years. Today’s note looks at candidate policy differences and implicatio
A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market
NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending. View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/ins
There’s no place like home
A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial r
The Lion in Winter
From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperformi
The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State
The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations
A Piece of the Action
Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, t
Animal Farm
With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity
Cicadian Rhythms
Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open sour
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election. View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/market-insights/eye-on-the-market/the-g
Electravision
This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asse
Five Easy Pieces
Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities. View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/i
Medical Complications
This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradict
Outlook 2024 - Episode 3: Deep Dive—Top Ten Surprises
A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/market-insights/eye-on-the-market/outlook-2024/outlook-top-t
Outlook 2024 - Episode 2: Deep Dive—The Fats Dominoes
The impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets. View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/market-insights/eye-on-the-market/outlook-2024/outlook-fats-dominoes/)
Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk - Episode 1: Outlook Overview
Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and te
It’s Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review
A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit View video here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/market-insights/e
Not That 70’s Show
Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets View transcript (https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/not-that-70s-show-transcript.pdf) View
New York, Just Like I Pictured It
Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, ind
What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World
I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the
The Rasputin Effect
Global resilience to higher rates View transcript (https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-rasputin-effect-transcript.pdf) View video and charts here (https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-manag
Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride
The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs View transcript with chart references (https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/mr-toads-wild-ride-amv.pdf)
Letters to the Editor
Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.
Too Long at the Fair
Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while View transcript with chart references (https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/too-long-at-the-fair-transcript-with-charts.pdf)
The Places We Could Go
Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that directi
Frankenstein’s Monster
Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities;
Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence
Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to. This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil
Winter Heating
The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans. View transcript with chart refe
American Gothic
The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it View transcript with the chart references (https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/american-gothic-transcript.
The End of the Affair
The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins View transcript with chart references (https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/2023-outlook-t
