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Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck
Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule
A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving
In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM
Reruns
Reruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and the clash of empires; and other press article extolling the renewable energy virtues of a c
Arrested Development
Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor force
On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS
Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for
Independence Days
Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe leads to another rescue program for Italy; the high cost of pariah status for the oil refining industry
The Elephants in the Room: Part Four, Whydrogen
Hydrogen use cases may be much narrower than advertised, and the timeline is a very long one
The Elephants in the Room: Part Three, Electrification of home heating
Fossil fuel bans, heat pumps and electrification of winter heating: What will happen to transmission grids at times of peak loads if no backup heating systems are in place? And what about the pace of change if bans on fossil fuels only appl
Bear Market Barometers
The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but the price paid for high earnings growth is still elevated.
The Elephants in the Room: Part Two, Transmission and electric vehicles
We continue with two topics on electrification, which is the foundation of many deep decarbonization plans: electric vehicle adoption by gasoline super-users and the transmission quagmire
The Elephants in the Room
We start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on industrial electrification and carbon sequestration
Surveying the Damage
Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price surge/recession outlook in Europe, the impact of rising metals prices on EV battery costs, th
China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The bulk of this note is on China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the surge in natural gas, oil, coal, electricity, wheat, copper, palladium and other prices which will probably drag Europe into recession, and impose a heavy growth drag o
Webcast replay: Russia, Ukraine and implications for investors
Listen to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Monica Dicenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities Group, and Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor, North America Institutional, discuss the current situation in Ru
Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine
Topics: Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body Snatchers
Middle Ages
On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron.
The Thing
Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.
Help Wanted
“Help Wanted”. We expect semiconductor, vehicle and other goods bottlenecks to resolve themselves in the months ahead, and interpret declining business surveys as the result of a temporary supply shock and not a sign of inadequate demand. A
Dude, Where’s My Stuff
The global supply chain mess will require increased global vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. We expect all three to occur over the next few mo
Spaccine hesitancy
Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity. An update on our SPAC analysis from last February, and a look at the strange mathematical paradox that ends up u
Red Med Redemption
Politics, vaccination resistance and the Delta variant; US economic recovery update; big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth
Thy Brother’s Keeper
COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).
Food Fight: 2021 Private Equity Update
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equ
Future Shock
Absent decarbonization shock treatment, humans will be wedded to petroleum and other fossil fuels for longer than they would like. Wind and solar power reach new heights every year but still represent just 5% of global primary energy consum
Absolute Value
Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it goes from here; COVID herd immunity, the path to normalcy and rising concerns about thrombosis risks from vector va
Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate
If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t… it’s amazing to see the pretzels that people contort into to convince themselves that rising rates are not a problem for equities. Al
Very short stories
Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable energy, the Texas power outage and the battle for the Republican Party.
Hydraulic Spacking
In this month’s note, we look first at the SPAC capital raising boom. Our main focus: returns to date for SPAC sponsors and investors, and the large wealth transfers taking place among SPAC participants. Second topic: Biden’s early stage en
Fear of Flying
Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.
Outlook 2021: The Hazmat Recovery
Michael Cembalest’s views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’t solve.
