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Eye On The Market

von Michael Cembalest

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  1. Holiday Eye on the Market: The Winter of Our Discontent

    The belief in election illegitimacy is spreading faster than COVID. With field reporting from Alexander Fleming, Rutherford B Hayes, Richard III, Bob Newhart and the Attorney General of Ohio.

  2. The Armageddonists, Revisited

    The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at all-time highs again with prospects for further gains in 2021. However, I can think of something that could rescue them, at least temporarily:

  3. Quiet Flows the Don

    For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds. However, the election delivered a clearer referendum on the President himself than on policy issues dividing De

  4. Buckle Up

    The problem with states that do not allow pre-election processing of absentee ballots; a COVID Rorschach test; Trump and Biden deficit explosions, equity market impacts and trends that are being priced in as Democratic Sweep odds rise; Vacc

  5. Election 2020 - Praying for Time

    The election as referendum on America: how well does the “system” work, and for whom?

  6. The Needle and the Damage Done

    The cost of engineering a US recovery as the world waits for a vaccine; Biden agenda on taxes/spending; Tech stocks (2020 vs 1999); COVID and The Fountainhead; US election rules, dates and process in light of derogatory comments on mail-in

  7. COVID Research: Charts of the Week (August 17)

    US virus decline plateaus; UK is a long way from herd immunity; A post-COVID US housing shift to less dense locations with cheaper land; Lost in Translation: T-cell knowns and unknowns, and financial industry co-conspirators in the war on s

  8. COVID Research: Charts of the Week

    US infection plateau; Liz Cheney; Hong Kong’s reaction to a mini second wave; Phase I Oxford vaccine antibody response; US spending and hospitalization trends; an update on infections in US hotspots and Latin America; Government march-in ri

  9. Blinded by Science: the US recovery, virus surge and scientific trust gap

    US recovery marches on; why deaths are diverging from sharply rising infections; the American scientific trust gap vs the rest of the world; energy paper client Q&A.

  10. Stargazing: Tenth Annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper

    While COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels, a faster and broader renewable energy transition will be needed to result in more permanent reductions. This year’s topics include decarbonization of steel; the amount of

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