Eagles In TROUBLE, 49ers Elite & Packers Finished? NFL Week 4 Reactions (Ep. 2244)

0:00 Hello, everybody. Welcome into the tailgate. I'm Ryan Wormley, joined by Andrew Erickson and Derek Brown. We are reacting to week four of the NFL season. That's right, folks. We are a month in so far. Like every other week, guys, we're going to start things off with some news and notes talking about all of the injuries that happened because that has not slowed down whatsoever. As I've been doing, I'll sort of quickly run through the list here and then we can kind of pick and choose where we want to highlight these because there's Quite simply, not enough time to go through all of them. Lamar Jackson, ankle injury that happened in the final play of the first half in their game against the Titans. He looked awesome

0:38 against them before that injury. He was seen leaving the stadium in a boot. Rappaport said they were thinking day-to-day. Florio said more like week-to-week. Jesse Minter said that there was discussions about bringing him back into the game yesterday. I think that was sort of misinterpreted by some people online as they considered doing it. I think having a good discussion could be as simple as like, Is he capable of coming back or not? So I'm not putting too much stock in that. I'm kind of operating as if he's going to miss a week here, but we'll see.

1:04 That's obviously the biggest name in terms of quarterbacks. Jamar Chase, concussion. We know with those, that often means missing at least one game, but we'll see what happens there. Saquon Barkley, hamstring, left the game for the Eagles. DJ Moore re-aggravated that AC joint shoulder issue he had for the Bills. Rasheed Rice left his game with the hamstring. Tee Higgins, another one with the Bengals receivers, had the groin issue. Taequann Thornton, obviously a very, very, very bad ankle injury that was tough to watch. You know, we're thinking about him, hoping for the best there. Ladd McConkie re-aggravating a foot injury that he had during the week. And then Kyle Medungai had an awesome game, but he did have a thumb

1:41 injury in there as well. And then as Debro added to our sheet, also DeAndre Swift, parentheses, butterfingers. So that's the other one to be thinking about here. Debra, I'll start with you. What I mean, obviously, these are some of the biggest names in fantasy and in the NFL. The first three names I listed were Lamar, Jamar Chase and Saquon Barkley. Where do you want to start with the injuries this week?

2:02 What do the Cincinnati Bengals do in week five when they don't have their star receivers and they do not have the ability to run the ball and they don't even care about trying to run the ball? because last week's game was close. You'd swear from the box score and Joe Burrow throwing the ball over 50 freaking times that they were getting blasted. Like they were losing like 23 to two or three or it's 30 to six or something insane. And yet it's 13 to three at halftime.

2:35 Chase Brown doesn't ever get the ball. They don't even attempt to run the ball.

2:38 Well, guess what boys better get familiar with running the ball this week. I don't think Joe Burrow's going to throw it 50 freaking times to Mitchell Tinsley.

2:47 Do you know who they're playing this week?

2:48 I know exactly who they're playing this week.

2:51 They might not need Chase and Higgins to do just fine against the Dolphins. I don't know, man.

2:55 The Dolphins have been quite competitive the last two weeks. I mean, Chris Bell's long touchdown doesn't get called back.

3:03 I don't know. I don't know. I think that says more about the Vikings offense, honestly. Erickson, what do you think about the Bengals? Let's say they have to go into this game in week five without Chase and Higgins.

3:12 I think it just means that there's value on the Bengals because I think that Joe Burrow without Jamar Chase, without Tee Higgins, is still eons better than whatever we saw from Kyler Murray in this past game.

3:22 Yeah, yeah.

3:23 So that's why I'm not overly concerned. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a pass funnel defense. I don't think that the Bengals were game planning to, OK, we're going to run the ball over Jacksonville. I mean, that's why I bet the under on Chase Brown rushing attempts, which wasn't he had more catches than rushing attempts in this game. He had 11 catches out of the backfield. So Chase Brown's still a three down or in terms of his three down skill set. So he's still going to be involved.

3:46 He's still explosive and can rip off big plays. And it's just next man up for the Bengals, right? We'll see if they get Kobe Young back. He missed this past game. It's possible he comes back and returns after missing one week. And you have tight ends. Mike Gusecki, like he steps up a lot of time when these receivers miss time. So it probably won't be pretty. But I mean, the Miami Dolphins secondary is so bad. guys are running wide open against them. And I think the Bengals could take advantage of it.

4:12 The other team that has, you know, not only is a contender, but had multiple receiver injuries was the Chiefs. Obviously, Thornton is going to be out for the season with the ankle. Rasheed Rice, the hamstring, not sure how much time he's going to miss yet, unless you guys have seen an update there. But I mean, they can't start giving more carries to Kenneth Walker Erickson. They're already giving him as many as he can possibly handle. So what do you think the Chiefs are going to do if they're down two receivers going into... Actually, you know what?

4:37 Never mind. I just totally forgot. They have the bye next week. So they do get a week on the Rasheed Rice side to see how he heals and is back in a couple of weeks. But if two weeks from now, he's not back yet, what do you think about the Chiefs offense?

4:48 Well, they do have rookie Cyrus Allen, who flashed a lot during training camp. So it's possible that he gets a little bit more run as one of these starting receivers. Jalen Royals got the biggest bump in this past week with Rasheed Rice injured after six snaps. played due to that hamstring injury. And all the rumblings are that Terry Kale is going to sign with the team in the next coming days. And is it not obviously the Chiefs?

5:09 Like what other team would he sign with? Unless he's trying to like, I'm, I'm the cheetah. I'm going to become a Bengal. That's exactly what I want to do. Reunited with Mike McDaniel for the Chargers. I mean, they can't get any worse, right? So I think it's pretty clear that he'll be signing with the Chiefs at some point.

5:25 And that's obviously going to be another, uh, Receiver added to that room, he obviously knows Mahomes, knows the system. Don't know what kind of shape Terry Kill is in, but I'm kind of sick of betting against guys coming back from these season-ending injuries when it seems like more often than not, guys are coming back quicker, faster, stronger.

5:41 And the fact that he's free across the league in terms of fantasy, it's worth just kind of picking up to kind of see, hey, how does the things kind of shake out here, especially with Tyquan Thornton's injury looking like, I mean, he's going to be out indefinitely.

5:51 For sure. By the way, the Bengals' bye is in week six, so I would imagine they are going to err on the side of caution with both Chase and Higgins because they have a bye the following week, and they're playing the Dolphins this week, so they basically have two byes. D-Bro, any thoughts on the Chiefs' offense with these guys going down?

6:07 I mean, it's a mess, but also, I mean, we're going to see an obvious target bump for Travis Kelsey, but to Erickson's point, they got guys on the roster that could possibly step up. Like, I think Jim and Royals can play the Rasheed Rice role. I fully believe that, so... If he's putting that low ADOT role, I'm not going to say that he's going to get 30% target share, but I think you're going to see them lean more on Travis Kelsey. Maybe we see more of Emma Johnson.

6:31 I agree with that, especially because he got zero carries this last game. But I think Chiefs loaded up Ken Walker to start the year because they knew they had a week five bye week. I think that really does matter in terms of, They knew Mahomes was coming off of his ACL injury. They knew Ken Walker was going to be at his peak to start the year, and they had an early bye week. Well, they've already backed off.

6:50 The workload a little bit.

6:51 Like, he only got 22 touches last night, so it's not like he was, like, at 30 or anything like that.

6:56 You know what I mean? Just saying.

6:58 With Saquon, do you guys have any interest in trying to approach this backfield on the fantasy side in waivers this week? I mean, because Bigsby got banged up too, didn't he?

7:07 Adding Will Shipley.

7:09 Yeah, like... Take on the Jags. I mean, this team is just struggling so much.

7:12 They gave up 10 rushing yards to Chase Brown last week.

7:15 No.

7:15 I mean, he could catch a bunch of dump-off passes from Jalen Hurts because that's kind of what the Eagles' offense is maybe going to become. Who knows? Because who knows who's even going to be out there for the Eagles' catching passes? It's going to be Lemon, Wicks, Will Shipley against the Jags in London. Good Lord.

7:30 Yeah.

7:30 Woof. yeah i don't think we need to spend time on like dj moore that offense is still going to be good lad mcconkey that offense is still going to be bad like.

7:38 Oh we'll talk about the charges later same with the eagle.

7:42 They're back in the stock down section of the show.

7:45 Yeah i do want to take uh take a second on lamar's ankle though because obviously just in terms of like impact on the league this is probably the actual biggest injury of the week if there is any time missed because how important he is an mvp quarterback um And also how important he is for your beloved and my beloved now too, Zay Flowers. You know, he went from another utterly dominant first half to not doing anything because of an injury in the second half. This time it was Lamar's injury. He actually did leave the game for a couple of plays when his foot got stepped on, Zay.

8:14 He came back in though, so that's not a long-term concern. The numbers for Zay Flowers, if you only include the quarters in which he and Lamar Jackson have both been on the field this season... not even accounting for the fact that he was running limited plays in the Rio game, like just pretending that was a normal full workload from him, which of course wasn't. He's averaging 178 yards a game this season. If you just take a play out the time he's been on the field with Lamar Jackson, it is unbelievable how much he is breaking defenses and breaking fantasy and breaking, you know, records in terms of efficiency when he has been on the field, D bro.

8:52 Say flowers is good. Who knew?

8:55 Who knew, Worm?

8:56 Who knew?

8:57 Listen, I knew it was good. I didn't know he was this. This is like, he's not as good a player as JSN, but this is like very similar to me of last year where it's like, oh, the new play caller came in and just unlocked everything and changed the way we view this guy. Again, JSN is the better receiver, but it is very reminiscent. Like Declan Doyle just comes in the way Clint Kubiak did last year.

9:14 And it's just like, oh, this is how you could have been using him the whole time. This guy's a stud.

9:19 So the only thing I'll push back about all of that is right after he signed the contract, I tweeted it out and I looked at every, basically every single per route metric versus every single coverage that you could pull up. And Zay Flowers is elite or has been elite versus all of it. Like man coverage zone route, win rate downfield short. Like he's been amazing. So my only pushback was been like, he's kind of been that guy for the last few years and, and the Ravens just did not lean on him as being that guy, but he's been that guy.

9:55 Statistically, yes. You don't feel like watching him, it looks different. I feel like it just looks like he's playing on easy mode right.

10:00 Now I just look like the they finally lean into running their passing attack through him like fully through him is where I'm at.

10:09 But Erickson are you gonna be knocking down Zay at all in your rankings for week five if Lamar's out I.

10:15 Mean if Lamar doesn't play I think that you have to adjust your expectations for what Zay Flowers is going to do. But from like a season long perspective, I still am very high on Zay Flowers. We talk about this all the time, right? Process always says when an elite wide receiver loses quarterback, you go out and trade for them in fantasy because more often than not, it works out. Sometimes it doesn't like Jefferson last year, but a lot of times it works out like Jamar Chase last year when he lost Joe Burrow and he ended up just being an absolute monster because he got 20 targets a game. So Zay Flowers still will be the focal point of the Ravens passing attack. He is so elite after the catch that kind of mitigates any type

10:49 of quality in terms of the targets to him from Tyler Huntley. And it's not like Tyler Huntley is a bad backboard.

10:55 Back because he's fully functional.

10:58 It's a new offense too. So we'll see. Maybe Declan Doyle can help unlock a little bit more of Tyler Huntley. I mean, right now when we're looking at the line, it's Ravens laying three points, playing at the Atlanta Falcons. That line to me suggests that Lamar Jackson's not playing because we would probably all agree that if Lamar Jackson was playing, it would be more than three points.

11:16 That line was six before the games on Sunday. So this has obviously been halved by the idea of Lamar not being there. And obviously the total's gone way down. The thing with Huntley too, I'll say is like, I know they didn't score in the second half yesterday with him playing. That was, like, he came in cold. He said he didn't even know he was going to be starting the second half until, like, a minute or two before kickoff of the second half. Like, they kind of threw it on him. And he also, like, the task was simple. It was don't lose to the Titans. Like, you're up by, like, three scores. You're playing the Titans.

11:49 It was kind of a weather-filled game, too. It was rainy and misty. Like, just don't make the big mistake. And he did. And I'm not saying he's going to be Lamar Jackson. Of course he's not. But he can be better than he showed in the second half. with a week of practice and them knowing they need to score more. He's, he's a perfectly capable backup.

12:06 My projection for Derrick Henry's line was almost spot on too.

12:09 Worm. I wasn't. Yeah. Yes.

12:14 Nice.

12:14 Well done. Yeah. He just, you know, he's going to get you that touchdown every week.

12:19 It's just going to happen. Inevitable.

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12:55 you turn on notifications so you don't miss your chance to claim this epic prize. All right, guys, let's get into our conclusion segment, sort of what we learned this week. Erickson, we'll start with you.

13:05 Houston, we have a problem. Sitting at 0-4, can this team rally and get back into the postseason? Well, according to NextGenStats, Teams that are 0-4, we have one team that has gone to the playoffs since 1992, the 1992 San Diego Chargers. Now, we talked about this, I think, last week when the Texans fell to 0-3 that, OK, well, they did this before and they were able to bounce back and make it to the playoffs. I think the big difference between this Texans team compared to last year is the defense is not nearly as good. And it's a very hard bar to meet because of how elite and suffocating they were. And we tend to see this from year to year where elite defenses are more likely to aggress to the mean than elite offenses are. So

13:51 despite the fact that we got a amazing outing from CJ Stroud last week, 126.7 pass rating, that was the sixth highest of his career, 0.45 EPA per dropback, that was the fifth highest he's ever had in his career. So getting Nico Collins back was so clearly a major boost that this team was missing and obviously contributed to the fact that they are an 0-14. They have not won a game yet. And I don't think it's a scenario where This Texas team being 0-4 is reflective of how talented they are on both sides of the football, especially when Neuquen Collins is healthy. I think they are better than an 0-4 team, but they are still 0-4.

14:26 And digging out of this type of hole can be really, really tough and really challenging. You have two road divisional matchups coming up, playing at the Titans, should be a W, but then you're playing at Jacksonville in London. Then you get the New York Giants at home, and then you get your week eight bye week.

14:41 So.

14:42 If they can upset the Jaguars, maybe go on a 3-0, enter their bye week at 3-4. Maybe that's a case where their defense can play a little bit better and they can kind of get a complete game going. Because right now the Texans don't feel like a complete team. They feel like either their defense plays really well and their offense lets them down or their offense plays really well and their defense lets them down. Like they haven't had this full cohesive unit. And when I look at the team that's in first place in that division, the Jacksonville Jaguars to me are a complete team. where they're finding ways to win, whether it's on offense, whether it's on defense. The Texans are the opposite, where I feel

15:13 like one side of their ball or one of their units is letting them down more often than not. I think there's a lot of injuries on the defense that have kind of been flying under the radar. Aziz Alshier didn't play last week. They have Henry To'o To'o. He did not play. He's also on injured reserve. Mario Edwards was placed on injured reserve. So I think you're starting to see some holes there. in their defense. And despite the fact how good Will Anderson is rushing the passer, like he's a favorite probably for defensive player of the year, this team is still 0-4. So they can't run the ball.

15:43 That's another big issue. Fifth highest in pass rate this season. And although it was nice to see Jalen Noel finally get like 60% of the snaps, and you see what he can do when he just plays more. They did this in week two, and they put him back in the box in week three. And it's super, super frustrating that they're not unleashing their best players. So That's kind of how I feel about the Texans, where I don't think that they are an 0-4 team, but they are an 0-4 team. And I don't know if they're going to have the schedule work in their favor and have the run out that they had last year to really dig out of this hole.

16:16 I mean, the schedule lightens up outside of the Jags games and then the game against the Ravens. Those are the three toughest games remaining on the schedule. The rest of it is much easier than what their run out has been to start the season. I was just looking at the schedule as you were talking, Erickson. Like, just think about the defense. Like, I would say, again, besides Jacksonville, clearly the three toughest– and again, the Ravens– clearly the three toughest offenses to face this season were Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Dallas, and that was three of their four first games.

16:44 I expect the defense to look better.

16:46 And the Colts say hi. They also beat them.

16:48 Well, I know the Colts– I didn't say that every single team has three of the four great offenses. And also, that Colts game was without Nico. Like, the Texans are winning that game with Nico Collins, in my opinion.

16:57 But he's also, like, a player that– he misses time, though. Like this is like nothing new for Nico. Like he has his hand, like the fact that the team is so dependent on. And again, like, is this really a reflective of Houston's offense being, because dude, the Colts defense is also bad. And the Houston Texans offense looked like crap against them, even though they didn't have Nico. I think it's kind of like we had the compounding effect where it's like you get Nico back and you get the Dallas Cowboys. So now your offense looks amazing, but then your defense looks like crap. So yeah, I go back to my point where like, just, Not a complete team.

17:30 Well, again, I'm not saying it's been a perfect start, obviously. Like, they are 0-4, and Colts' loss was bad. But my point is that three of their toughest games of the season, I would argue, going into the season in terms of what the defense is facing, have already happened. So I'm not surprised that overall the defense doesn't look statistically as amazing.

17:48 The rest of their schedule, again, setting aside the Jacksonville games, which Jags are better, It's Tennessee. It's the Giants with a backup quarterback. It's the Chargers that look broken. It's the Browns, which eventually are going to fall back to earth. It's the Colts again. It's the Steelers with an old quarterback.

18:02 It's Washington on the third string quarterback. It's Philly, which looks broken. It's Green Bay, which looks broken. And then Tennessee again. Like the schedule does lighten up immensely compared to the four games they've had to start the season. Again, outside of those three that I highlighted, which every team is going to have a couple of tough games in there.

18:17 It's a math problem though, D bro. Like they're 0-4. It doesn't matter if they play like a playoff level team from here on out. The margin for error is just– it's not even gone. It's in the negatives. Like it's so difficult mathematically to come back from this.

18:28 Oh, yeah.

18:29 I don't disagree with anything. And then you get to the– I mean their problems that they have are glaring problems. The only thing they're doing well right now is stopping the runs. They're passing in it like their bottom five and explosive pass rate.

18:44 Yeah, sure.

18:45 They're they're pressuring the quarterback and stuff. Doesn't matter when their secondary is a frickin mess. They cannot run the ball. So they're a one dimensional offense. And at any given moment, C.J. Stroud can C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins isn't out there.

18:58 Good Lord.

18:59 I mean, you know, Nick Cayley might go back to running out Xavier Hutchinson and throw Jalen all back into a 30 percent snap rate.

19:06 And then cut the routes of Dalton Schultz. Who knows? And none of this is crazy because we've already seen it all happen earlier this season. So it's not like I'm prognosticating things that just sound insane and could never happen. No, we've seen all of this.

19:22 So I think we're looking at a team that is, I'm not saying they're broken because they have a lot of talent on this roster, but on the offensive side of the ball, it's not being utilized properly. On the defensive side of the ball, it's not playing up to the talent level. So while we look at the rest of their schedule and we say, man, you know, their schedule lightens up a whole lot. Again, the only pushback I'll give is we are at week four or the conclusion of week four. So a lot of it, we still don't know who some of these teams are, who they can be. And if the Texans are playing this bad, we need to lower our expectations to some of these teams that are playing above their heads could beat them

20:05 like the Browns.

20:07 Maybe.

20:08 I'll believe that when I see it. I just can't– I can't get over the fact– The Colts freaking beat them.

20:12 The Colts are one of the worst teams in the damn NFL right now.

20:15 Okay, but they didn't beat– the Colts didn't beat them with their offense. They beat them because the Texans' offense was terrible. I'm talking about the Texans' defense. Outside of Nico Collins, they can't do anything well.

20:24 Like, they cannot run the ball.

20:25 I know. I'm not arguing that the offense is a problem when Nico's off the field. It's obviously terrible, and he wasn't on the field in that game. I'm saying defensively, if you were ranking the most– like, you're talking about the explosive pass rate they're giving up. The most explosive passing offenses in the NFL, I think the top three I would list are Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Dallas. And those are the three games that are affecting those numbers so strongly.

20:48 The Titans are not going to have explosive pass plays against this defense. I don't think the Chargers are going to with what we've seen this year. I don't think Deshaun Watson is going to. The offense is a problem. I have zero disagreement with you there, Debra, at all. The Houston offense is bad. Nick Cayley has done a poor job. It is a problem. I don't think the defense is as bad as the stats say because of these offense.

21:05 And then they play the Ravens at the back half. They play the commanders who it looks like they're going to get Jane Daniels back. They play the Jaguars again. If the Eagles can somehow find their way, if the Packers can somehow find their way, because the Packers biggest problem is their offensive line. And so if their offensive line can somewhere get to a semblance of at least in the area code of league average, again, the, I'm big time worried about the Texans because I don't lean on anything outside of rushing the passer and stopping the run that this entire team is doing well.

21:41 They should get Braden Smith back at some point because he's been on inter-reserve since the start of the season, but it was the short term. So they should be able to upgrade tackle. And one thing about Stroud that he actually has been good, he hasn't really turned the ball over, which you can't say for a lot of these imploding offenses that we've seen, like the Colts, like the Chargers. he doesn't have a turnover since week one.

22:03 So that is working in the favor of the Texans. I just don't see, and may I shouldn't say this because we see divisional upsets all the time. Like they have to win that game in Jacksonville or in London, excuse me.

22:14 Or I split at least one of these, one of these, if they enter.

22:18 The bi-week at two and five, I think that's totally different than if they go in on a three game win streak into their bi-week. And then I could see, okay, could they maybe sneak into the wild card? If, things start to get together. Nico Collins stays healthy and the defense just gets back to top 10 and not giving up explosive plays. I could see that to all the kinds of things we talked about, because again, I don't think they are an own for team in terms of like, you look at on paper, how many guards they give up, how many points they're scoring, especially with Nico in the lineup.

22:46 But to the overarching point, eventually it is a numbers game and you have to win a certain amount of games and not lose a certain amount of games. And that's what really puts the behind the eight ball.

22:54 Like if you can't run the ball versus the freaking Cowboys, you got some serious freaking.

22:59 Issues, dude.

23:01 I mean, the Ravens didn't run the ball that well against the Cowboys. They ran it, they got touchdowns, but I think Cowboys run defense is, has improved from the first two weeks of the season. I, I'm not, I'm not trying to say, I think the Texans are going to make the playoffs to be clear. I'm saying, I think that the opponents have had a real hand in, the statistical defensive profile that the Texans have put out there so far. And I think they are better than an 0-4 team. Again, but I do think there's a problem in terms of like, A, they had these clear flaws, and B, I don't think they're going to make the playoffs.

23:31 I think they've dug too big. D-Bro, let's go to your what we learned this week. You've got another team that's in big trouble.

23:38 The Eagles are an absolute and total mess right now.

23:41 And like, I mean, let's just go through the injuries. Saquon's hurt. Dallas Goddard's hurt. Devontae Smith's hurt. Uh, Lane Johnson's got personal things. The offensive line can't play well. Um, they can't rush the passer and outside of their cornerbacks.

23:57 Oh yes.

23:57 And by the way, Quinn Young Mitchell is now hurt too outside of their outside cornerbacks.

24:02 What part of the.

24:03 Defense has been playing extremely well? Cooper to Jean looks like he's fallen off a cliff this year to begin the season. The Eagles are in big time trouble again. I I'm having a hard time. coming up with a list of what is this team do well at all versus all the other things that they are not doing well.

24:22 And another team going back to the volatility of defenses.

24:26 Yeah.

24:26 Texans were supposed to be one of the best defenses in the NFL. What are they doing? Okay. So were the Eagles. They were supposed to be one of the best teams in the NFL is for, in terms of defense, how he does, how he things Vic Fangio. Ah, they signed Tariq Woolen. They'll just be awesome. They got Jonathan Grenard in the offseason, their pass rush, no worries. And yet, here we are. Do they make the playoffs?

24:54 I'm looking at their schedule now. It's a tough schedule going forward. It's not like an all-time difficult schedule, but it's not easy. I mean, they got the Jags in London this week.

25:01 They got the Panthers.

25:02 They have Dallas. Panthers who look, Bryce Young looks awesome. They have Dallas. They have at the Commanders if Jane Daniels is back for that. They have a Giants team that, you know, has been played well and is coached well. They have Seattle and Houston and San Francisco back-to-back-to-back late in the season. I mean, they're not going to go 2-15, right? But, like, there's a lot of losable games on the slate. And they do– it is not just that they don't look as good as I expected. They look quite bad, Erickson.

25:35 Yep.

25:35 It's a new offense that they still have not clearly gotten all the concepts of. And it's hard to do when you're shuffling offensive personnel every single week. They're losing more guys. The offensive line is continuing to get injured, older, and that's problematic. So the one thing that Eagles are doing well is three and outs. They have 15 three and out drives this season. That is the most in the NFL. It's not a list you need to be at the top of. 11 of their last 15 three and out drives come in the second half, three more than any other team in the NFL. Think about it.

26:04 They couldn't beat the Rams because they just couldn't sustain any drives. And then once the Rams offense finally got out of their own way and Matthew Stafford stopped throwing interceptions, I honestly could not believe because I've been on the Rams because I was like, once Lane Johnson was ruled out, like auto bet, fade the Eagles offense, bury them in every type of ranking. And I'm watching that scoreboard ticker on my TV and I'm thinking, man, what are the Rams doing? Why can't they score against the Eagles? And I'm like, all right, well, I guess I was wrong.

26:31 And I look up, Rams win 24-20. I'm like, wait, what happened? So yeah, this offense just looks so broken. It looks a lot like last year where it's just tail of two halves. Eagles don't do anything in one half of football. They need a big run from Saquon. They need a big play from Devontae Smith. And now those guys are all banged up. I could not agree more with Debro as just like the Eagles being in trouble here. And right now, like, Are the Cowboys going to win this division? Who's actually the best bet to win this division now?

27:00 Cowboys. I'll pull up the odds, actually. I'm not sure what the odds are showing. It's kind of interesting because you can say like- Cowboys are my pick. Should be the Cowboys. Right.

27:07 Cowboys should be minus money.

27:09 But the Giants are in first. We kind of feel like they'll probably fall off because you can only go for so long. But who's the best quarterback? Like, Jane Daniels? Like, if he's healthy, can he last? I mean, what's- It's kind of interesting to look at this division.

27:21 Consensus odds on bettingpros.com. Have the Cowboys at plus 140.

27:26 I would take that.

27:28 That feels like a great bet. And you know who's plus 125 is Philly. Cowboys have longer odds than the Eagles right now. And that is consensus odds on bettingpros.com.

27:36 The other thing about it is what happens when Joey Porter Jr. is a full-time player and stuff. Maybe we get a better version of this defense as we move through the season.

27:44 I would go bet on the Cowboys right now.

27:46 That shouldn't be a plus odds right now.

27:49 I strongly, strongly prefer the Cowboys moving forward here. Yeah, I think that's a good call. You guys both went kind of negative, so I want to go a little more positive with the conclusion this week. Bears defense is maybe decent. I mean, they obviously did not do– I'm not saying it with my chest, which I recognize. But this was a defense that we thought– I mean, I can't think of how many shows I did with Fitz where he said this was the circus team this year where they're going to have a great offense and the defense is going to be so bad that they're going to throw a ton and every game take the over and all that fun stuff. And that played out in week one. Carolina looks pretty good this season in multiple

28:25 other games. So maybe that was more about the Panthers. And then, I mean, I know it was terrible weather conditions, but they gave up fewer than 10 points to the Vikings. They then gave up just seven points to the Eagles team we just talked about. Then they gave up 12 points to a bagged up, but decent offense in the Jets, or at least what has looked like a competent offense this season. I'm not saying that the Bears defense is elite.

28:47 I'm not saying that it's, a defense to be maybe feared, but maybe it is not a defense to be attacked in fantasy the way we thought it was coming into the season and after week one where it was, oh, you have anybody facing them, go ahead and start them. I mean, maybe you guys disagree, but I have been more impressed than I expected to with the Bears defense.

29:06 They were talking after this game about how this was like one of the easiest games they've ever played defensively because there was just so few snaps. I think the Jets ran like 32 plays in this game and the Bears had 34 first down. It was like some insane defense disparity where the defense just didn't have to be on the field because dennis allen did a great job dialing up third down play calls and getting them off the field so i'm not saying it's super talented again i'm not saying it's the best defensive football or anything close to it but if they're merely decent that's actually a pretty big deal both for facing them in fantasy and for the nfc north and the nfc in general once caleb williams gets back they've.

29:38 Been surprisingly as far as a pass defense. Their run defense has still got awful. I think what they've succeeded at and the Dennis Allen of all of it is being very aggressive as a defensive unit and that playing in their strengths because of how these games and how their offense has allowed these games to play out. in the sense of, again, going back to the jets of it all too, like teams can run on the freaking bears, but when the offense puts up points quickly or puts teams in a hole and makes them one dimensional, it's making the game plan a lot easier for the bears defense.

30:14 Now to their credit, they are playing well, their, their past defense is playing well and they're opportunistic and they're aggressive. So if those things can manifest and hit, yes, but, They look like a much better defense than I think they actually are. But some of what is helping them is their offense, putting up points and making other offenses one dimensional. And that really kind of carrying the day, because if a team just decides like, look one, we can get a lead on the bears and put them behind the eight ball too. We are going to run the ball and impose our will. You're going to see more cracks in the pavement from the bears defense, but to your point, Worm, The game scripts, the opponents, how

30:55 things have kind of played out have kind of helped them, but they've kind of answered the call on the past defense side.

31:01 Erickson, what do you think?

31:02 Yeah, I think that the teams that they've played have definitely influenced the improvements by them because look at the Vikings, you look at the Eagles, you look at the Jets. Yes, an offense that we were excited about coming off a monster game against the Lions defense is so bad, right? It's like the total opposite. And I think that part of the reason we set up, and you mentioned this, where it's complimentary football where Ben Johnson is helping out his defense because he's playing bully ball and because he's controlling the time of possession. So what's the best defense is off the field, right? You can't score as long as we have the ball. So that's how we're going to run our games. And I think that was really

31:39 helping the defense look better on paper. And yeah, it's like if the only opposing team only runs 32 plays, then yeah, it's going to be an easy day at the office for that specific defense. And I like to say this week against the Packers. Oh, well, This is where they can get exposed. This is the best offense they've faced since week one. But the Packers offensive line is horrible. So really, is it a best offense they have faced? That remains to be seen. So I do think that the Bears definitely deserve credit for playing much better over the last couple of weeks. However, when they do run into a legitimate top 10 offense, which I don't think they have faced since week one, when they gave up over 30 points to the Carolina Panthers, who

32:16 may or may not be top 10 offense. They are at least right now through the first month of the season based on who they have played. I do think that It may be a slap in the reality for the Bears defense. But when it comes to the Packers, like I'm not ready to say the Packers are a top 10 offense, even though I think Jordan Love is one of the better quarterbacks that they faced. The offensive line in Green Bay is just it's so, so shaky and it's just unreliable.

32:37 Erickson, that's a really good point, man. Like you bring it up.

32:40 I just looked at the time of possession of each one of these games and the Bears have had it 32, 34, 36 minutes. I wasn't aware how much the Jets just didn't have.

32:50 Dude, the Jets barely played. They had the ball 17 minutes. Yeah.

32:54 17 minutes.

32:55 You can't do anything when you have the ball that little.

32:58 They ran 32 plays to the Bears 89. That's insane.

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33:37 That's FPPOD to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Let's go to our reality check, guys. This is where we sort of present a conclusion versus an overreaction, try to work through together. Is this a legitimate reaction or an overreaction? Erickson, what's your reality check of the week?

33:54 Can the Packers be fixed? So dovetails right from the conversation we just had about the Bears and the Packers. That's the matchup that they have this week where the Packers are catching two and a half points at home against, it was just announced, Tyson Bajent. who is going to be starting in this game on the road in Green Bay.

34:10 We talked about this on the Look Ahead show, Worm, and we both like the Packers getting points at home as home underdogs in a divisional matchup, but it does not feel great because of how bad the Packers have been straight up and against the spread. They barely go to Tampa Bay against Jalen Daniels, making his first NFL start and win that game now. Upon rewatch, they definitely had opportunities to put that away. Caleb Johnson, of course, had a fumble at the three yard line to get the ball to the Buccaneers. And then Jordan Love threw another interception in the red zone. So they had opportunities to kind of close out the game. So I don't think that the three point line is necessarily super indicative

34:50 of how the game script was, but they still let the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hang around. And when you are facing a quarterback, an undrafted rookie for agent, and you barely squeak out with a win, Like that just goes to show that this team is not one that you can trust in any way, shape or form. Basically not the same type of team since they lost Micah Parsons last year. And I looked at more in terms of his timetable. The latest from Tom Palacero was that November is likely the most time he would be actually returning for the Green Bay Packers. So can they tread water this long enough to get him back? They also just put Edrin Cooper, who looks like he has a torn Achilles. So, He's not going to be helping out that defense anymore.

35:29 One of their starting linebackers. Offensive line is horrendous. They had four penalties just on the offensive line against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The one saving grace, though, if their offense with Jordan Love can just give him enough time, besides the Bears this week at home, they get Dallas, Detroit, Carolina.

35:50 So can Jordan Love play well enough with the really talented group of skill players he has. Tucker Kraft, we saw have his best game of the season this week against the Bucs. Golden is cooking. Christian Watson is cooking. Can the offense keep them afloat long enough for them to get Micah Parsons back and keep them in contention?

36:08 I pose that question to you guys.

36:11 That line, by the way, for this week's game has moved from one and a half to two and a half that the Packers are getting.

36:17 People hate the Packers.

36:17 Yeah, and that is Tyson Bajan has already been announced as he's starting this week for the Bears.

36:21 I think the Bears are going to win that game.

36:22 That's with the back of the quarterback.

36:24 Yeah.

36:25 Dude, if they're able to keep the boat from capsizing, it's going to have to be because of Jordan Love and the passing attack. Because that's the only.

36:35 And I'm going to use this term lightly. The only superpower that they have. That's it.

36:39 Like, they can't run the ball. They can't stop the run. Their pass defense is woeful. They can't pressure the quarterback. Although they did start out with a top-10 pressure rate in the first few weeks. It's kind of fallen off a little bit.

36:50 But, like... So.

36:52 If they can keep the boat afloat, it's going to have to be on the back of Jordan Love. He's going to have to carry this team. He will have to do that.

36:58 Those next few opponents, maybe. It just depends on what version of Jordan Love. The version we've gotten so far this season, I say no. But we also know that he does have the.

37:09 Ability to go on these pronounced hot streaks. But again, as a pressure-sensitive quarterback and some honestly god-awful pressure versus clean pocket splits.

37:20 Maybe not.

37:20 Mm-hmm. We got to get him to Toyotathon. If we can get Jordan Love to Toyotathon, then he can step up like he usually does that time of year. I feel like Jordan Love is a good enough quarterback that I think he can right the ship and carry them. I don't know that he's a good enough quarterback that I am, like, confident that he will. I think it is on the table. He is that good, but he is not so good that it's like, oh, well, if he's there, he can solve everything. Like, it could happen.

37:48 I don't know that it will, Debro, to your point.

37:50 Mm-hmm.

37:50 I'm going to pull up here just to make the playoff odds. What do you think it is for the Packers right now?

37:54 Geez.

37:56 They're 2-2.

37:57 Probably much more generous than it should be. I would say they're probably like plus 150.

38:03 I was going to say the same thing. Probably like plus 150.

38:07 Consensus odds on bettingpros.com right now. And this is consensus updated as of like five minutes ago.

38:13 You're going to tell me a minus number, aren't you?

38:15 Just to make the playoffs. Plus 220. Oh, okay.

38:17 Okay. I mean, I agree with that number. I didn't think that it was going to be that high, but I agree.

38:23 The market is very, very low in the Packers. And I get it, right? When you are the team that breaks the Buccaneers 0-12 against the spread streak, you're that team. The Marcus is going to absolutely bury you.

38:34 Do you think Todd Bowles should bring him a free basket for doing that for him?

38:38 They're there. I mean, they're facing a backup quarterback, which Jordan loves their starter and they're catching points. Like that just tells you exactly how the market feels about the backers.

38:47 Yeah. And again, I mean, we, we kind of alluded to this, but like bears, Cowboys, lions, Panthers, Patriots, Vikings, Rams, saints, bills, dolphins, bears, Texans, lions. That's not an easy schedule. The rest of the way outside of the one game against Miami. Those are a lot of teams that, that could hand this team a loss. So, um, Yeah, that's on the Packers. Yeah, I lean towards they can be fixed, but I don't know that I'm betting that they will be, but it's on the table. Debro, what's your reality check?

39:17 I'm going to frame this, and I'm just going to start this off with there is a team out there that is 2-2, but yet they are bottom 10 in EPA per play. They are bottom three in EPA per dropback. They are seventh worst in EPA per, or excuse me, passing success rate. They're also on the defensive side, seventh worst in EPA per play. They're also on the defensive side, ninth worst in EPA per dropback. They're also on the defensive side, bottom 10 in almost every single metric.

39:49 So with saying all of.

39:51 This, I'm going to tell you that I do not care that the Indianapolis Colts are two and two. I think that they were a broken operation and the head coach and GM must be fired because I don't care that they've won two games. I don't care that in two of those games, they have put up 30 points. If you look at the box scores, there is no way outside of Jonathan Taylor doing Jonathan Taylor things that And he's the only reason this team is 2-2 because that man by himself willed him to two victories. Outside of that, this team is broken. They have made bad and buffoon moves after buffoon moves. You look at Shane Steichen.

40:30 Can't get good quarterback play. Does get good quarterback play. Starts to fall off. Quarterback gets hurt. What do him and Chris Bauer do in the offseason? Let's invest in the quarterback coming off the Achilles tear. And whoa, we're so surprised that Daniel Jones looks like 2025 Kirk Cousins trying to move around and he's limited in this entire offense.

40:48 We're so surprised that we spend two first round picks and go and trade for Sauce Gardner, who's getting burnt on the defensive side of the ball. This organization has lost its way. they have last year was an entire fluke head coach and GM should be fired.

41:08 When we were arguing about the Texans earlier, Debra, I had forgotten that this was your reality check. And then when we got here, I was like, Oh yeah, that's why he kept bringing up the Colts loss. Because they suck.

41:18 They suck.

41:18 Dude, he was so bad.

41:21 Commander's like, I couldn't believe I laid the points at the Colts watching Daniel Jones play. And then, Marcus Marietta goes down and they put in Ethan Kalikamanis.

41:33 Kalikamanis. Kalikamanis. We looked it up last night on the show, T-Pro.

41:40 I mean, a seventh round rookie quarterback coming in, if they had been facing any other quarterback, and he made some plays, right? Especially downfield again.

41:47 Marietta was carving him up before he got hurt too.

41:50 Sauce Gardner getting absolutely cooked. The last couple of weeks, he's been cooked by Traylon Burks, Diami Brown, and Xavier Hutchinson. for massive gains. Sauce Gardner. So, 58 snaps played in Week 4 against the Commanders. 95% snap share. He allowed 4 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown on 5 targets in coverage. That was the most yards allowed in a game by Sauce Gardner. And this was not Terry McLaurin.

42:11 This was not Stephon Dick. Like, this was bad wide receivers who were making plays on Sauce Gardner, who they traded multiple first-round picks to acquire. And Gale Jones, third worst in EPA per dropback this season. So... Yeah, this is a team that I was very hesitant to buy in on. It was like the team I probably liked the least in the AFC South. And there's nothing I've seen through four weeks where I'm like, man, they really exceeded expectations.

42:38 Do you want some sauce stats right now? It's bad.

42:41 It's really bad. 75 qualifying corners. Sauce Gardner, fifth highest EPA per target. Sauce Gardner, 10th highest passer rating allowed. It's not good.

42:52 And you traded... The other thing that makes this so, so terrible.

42:57 You look at the Chris Ballard of this. He traded two first-round picks. Did everybody see what Joey Porter Jr.

43:03 Went for? Did you?

43:05 Did you? So, okay.

43:07 So, to me, if you're looking at the pie chart of assessing blame of this situation, I do think it's like 80%. Oh, 100%. Yeah, yeah.

43:16 Also, building a wide receiver room that is dependent upon one player that is not healthy the entirety of the offseason, and oh my gosh, he's already out with an injury?

43:24 It's a dereliction of duty by Chris Ballard. I think Shane Steichen is still a competent and maybe even good head coach. Having said that, when you fire a GM, I am a believer that the GM should be able to pick their head coach. So it probably makes sense to just clean house entirely. But if I was a team that needed a head coach next year, I would happily hire Shane Steichen.

43:41 Just don't let him develop a quarterback, but I agree with you on that.

43:44 Is he Ben Johnson? No, but I think he's a good offensive head coach. This is to me a GM issue through and through. The roster is bad and the way they've gotten to this roster trading away picks and overpaying injured players and overpaying Daniel Jones coming off an Achilles, right? Like if Patrick Mahomes tears his Achilles, you say, you know what? He's so great. You have to just trust he's coming. This is Daniel Jones we're talking about. Like, like to me, this is almost entirely on the GM.

44:09 We got to get Shane Steichen to be the office coordinator for the Texans. That's what we need.

44:13 I'd be on board with that.

44:14 Send him back to Philly.

44:16 It's fine.

44:16 Or that too, yeah.

44:18 I mean, I'm thinking like with Shane, I'm like, if Zach Taylor gets fired this year in Cincinnati, I think that's.

44:24 An interesting fit.

44:25 If Dan Quinn gets fired, he goes to pair with Jane Daniels.

44:28 I mean, the only thing I'll lay at the, at the feet of Shane Stockton is the ability. They picked their quarterback and they did not develop him. And I understand there's a lot of Anthony Richardson and a long conversation to be had with that. But also when you're at, like it is laid at your feet to select your quarterback and to develop them. And you fail miserably at that.

44:48 That also, you know, He's got to take some moments.

44:50 I mean, I mean, it worked before Dan Jones got hurt.

44:53 Like it was, it was also one of the proof of concept was there, but cracks in the pavement before the.

44:58 Fact that they, they doubled down on like, okay, we'll just run it back. It's like, there's no way this is going to work. Like, there's like no way this is going to work again. They were like, it's our only option.

45:08 He legit cannot move. Like everybody saw.

45:11 And if you haven't seen that, that horrible play versus the commanders is last week. where Daniel Jones looks like a statue and then he gets knocked over like he's some kind of plastic mannequin.

45:20 He can't move. But again, why are you bringing him back to direct this offense versus like, I said for the entirety of the offseason, what would this offense and this team look like if they had assigned Malik Willis instead of bringing Daniel Jones back?

45:38 So bad. Let's get to my reality check. And again, this isn't me saying I definitively believe it. It's asking you guys if it's an overreaction or not. I'm saying that 49ers are the best team in football. I was impressed. The Broncos have not been some great team that it's super impressive to beat. I was impressed by the Niners are banged up, right? No Nick Bosa, no a lot of players. I didn't feel like they brought their A game.

46:01 And I still never felt like that game was ever going a different direction other than like a 7 to 10 point win for them. They ended up winning by double digits, 10 points, 24 to 14. against the Broncos and and while the Broncos haven't looked great this year this is still a team that was a Bo Nix injury away from being in the Super Bowl a year ago that does have lots of talent I know Sertan got hurt in this game but like there is a lot of talent on that defense and I mean the Niners haven't allowed a sack this season the broadcast was talking about that a lot during this game they've yet to allow a sack Brock Purdy has looked like an MVP which I talked about on the show last week and like their schedule it has not been a murderer's

46:36 row But they did destroy the Rams. Again, we've talked a lot about the travel stuff there. They did what they should have done against the Dolphins, which is beat them down. They beat a Cardinals team that has looked pretty frisky and easily could have beaten the Giants this week and has taken out some other teams. And then the Broncos, again, they win handedly. If you look at point differential, this is the best team in football, which is a simplistic stat. But just to point it out, they're the only team in the NFL that is top three in both points scored and top three in fewest points allowed. They've just looked really, really good. Substation issues be damned. And this is despite having a ton of

47:11 injuries and, you know, Kyle Shanahan dealing with the concussion stuff and the car accident, the offseason, just everything that felt like it could have been going against them this summer and early into September. They've just looked really, really awesome. And I actually expect them to lose this week against the Seahawks because Mike McDonald does an amazing job. His defense is against Kyle Shanahan offenses. So I'm not saying they're going undefeated or anything like that. I just think that they are the best team in football right now.

47:36 And I'm curious what you guys think. Is that a conclusion or an overreaction, D-Bro?

47:42 I was prepared to come in here and kind of push back a little bit. But, I mean, I'm looking at just around the NFL. If they're not the best team in football, then who are we making the case for?

47:52 Who is?

47:53 Dude, Vikings. No.

47:56 But to your point, though. The only other 4-0 team, and I think we could even, like, sum.

48:01 Up the Chiefs.

48:02 The Chiefs, you can make a case for sure.

48:04 But the Bills don't have the defensive side.

48:06 I wouldn't make a case for the Bills. I think they're too reliant on the offense. You know who I was thinking about this morning, actually? I was trying to think, who are the teams that I would put against the Niners? Because it's a great question by you, D-Bro. And so it's the Niners as one. I went to the Chiefs as two. I still think the Seahawks. And then the Jags were my fourth. Yeah. So Chiefs, Jags, and Seahawks were the three teams where I'm like, I have a lot of belief in them in certain ways on both sides of the ball. Not in every way, but they are more well-rounded, very good teams. There's two losses combined across those three teams. The teams are going to take losses.

48:40 It's fine. Those, to me, are the contenders here.

48:42 I'm with you on that, and I'll also throw into the foray the Ravens if they can get the defensive side of the ball shored.

48:48 Up and stuff like that. Oh, I think the Ravens could be– I think the Bills could be there by the end of the season, the Rams. But right now, yeah, I think.

48:57 It's– The Rams are definitely not in that conversation. Like, they're not even on my short list right now.

49:02 No, I'm saying, like, you might think– Yeah, yeah, yeah. No, no, no. Not right now, certainly.

49:06 But again, like, I was prepared to push back on this. I'm like, oh, the 49ers, really? Like, and you start looking around, and you're like, well, no, actually, that's.

49:16 He's right.

49:17 And I think it's interesting, too, because I almost went on to this thinking well we'll see what they do against seattle like if they beat seattle then you'll be proved right but the most likely outcome is whether they win or lose they're probably gonna split with the sea exactly way yeah right so it almost doesn't really matter who wins this particular game especially because 49ers have to go on the road to play Seattle. If they lose in a close game, I don't think anyone's going to look at the 49ers and be like, well, I can't believe we thought this team was the best team in the NFL. If it's a, it goes down to the fourth quarter, last possession, Brock Brady gets intercepted or he throws a touchdown. So I like this one a lot too,

49:52 where I'm similar to Debra. I was like, Oh, I can't wait to be like, this is so wrong. Cold takes exposed. They're going to get smashed this week at Seattle. It's like, Well, actually, like, I don't know.

50:04 I do really feel like looking at their schedule, I'm like, I wouldn't be surprised if they got swept by Seattle. Again, Mike McDonald even dating back to being the defensive coordinator in Baltimore.

50:12 Did they split last year?

50:14 No, didn't they? Because the Seahawks won.

50:17 I honestly don't remember.

50:18 No, no.

50:19 Right.

50:19 They did lose in week. But that was like a week one game where teams are very different in week one. Right. But then they beat them in week 18 and in the divisional round.

50:29 Three times. They lost three times.

50:31 No no the niners won week one against seattle lost week and then seattle won week 18 and the division around.

50:38 Yes the games that matter.

50:42 But again like like mike mcdonald is has always been very good against shanahan offenses so like even if they get swept by them to me that's more of a head coach matchup thing than it is like like oh that means they're not actually a good team and uh And then the only other game I'm like, oh, well, the guys could lose that as the Chiefs. Like, the rest of their schedule, I'm like, this could be a 14-3 team this season.

51:01 I'm sorry.

51:01 It wouldn't sum me up. I think they're really good.

51:02 That got me. When Erickson's like, oh, so they lost every game that really mattered.

51:06 Okay, cool. Yes, yes, you're right. You're right, Erickson. I would say, too, the 49ers have to take advantage of when they have their healthiest players available, which I don't even know if that's really even the case right now with the current roster. I mean, the fact that Mike Evans, like, gutted.

51:24 Out that performance last week.

51:26 Where still super productive, but dude, every time he catches the ball, he's like grimacing.

51:29 Did you watch that game? Like every single catch that he had, he got up off the ground and you're just like, Oh man, I could tell he's feeling it.

51:36 Like he's playing extremely banged up, but I mean, still, I thought he led the team in receiving army still had five catches. I believe over 70 yards.

51:43 And I think the Buccaneers would love to have that kind of leadership in their locker room right now.

51:46 Oh, that was something we shouldn't. That was one thing that we have not talked about with the Buccaneers, but losing Mike Evans, losing Levante, David.

51:53 A lot of leadership at the door, man.

51:56 By the way, Eric, the only thing I can think of when you said, like, oh, so all the games that matters, it's very reminiscent of Shooter McGavin and Happy Gilmore. How'd he finish? Dead last? Like, that was the exact vibes you were giving off.

52:07 Fair enough.

52:09 All right, let's wrap up with Stock Watch. We each have brought to the table a stock up and a stock down. Now, this can be teams. It can be narratives. It can be players. It can be coaches. You guys went very team heavy with your picks this week. Erickson, start us off. Who's your stock up?

52:24 The Patriots, baby. We're back. Drake May is back, baby. Patriots posted 49% success rate, highest game in an NFL this season. They're back. Drake May looked significantly better than he did the first three weeks of the season. And although he still did some of his turnover things, he had a fumble interception. Not great. He was much more efficient, looking a lot like his old self. 22-37 passing, 269 yards, and three touchdowns. And he's making plays with his legs again, which I was really, really happy to see. So he's not just sitting back like a sitting duck taking hits.

53:00 He's escaping, using his legs. He had 54 rushing yards on the ground. This doesn't mean the Patriots don't have problems still, because they do. They still can't really run the football. And I kind of wish they would just kind of commit to one guy, because I don't think that they can get in any type of rhythm when they're always... exchanging running backs at different times so that's one thing that I'm looking to see how they do rest of season the schedule does get a little bit easier as we've talked about some of the fantasy shows with the Patriots now the Raiders is going to be a tough test because the Raiders defense is like I think pretty legit especially given how they played last weekend's

53:33 Chiefs I know they gave up 30 points in the end but a lot of that came in the fourth quarter with some of those big Ken Walker plays and then they had the kickoff return that immediately gave the Chiefs a possession deep in the Raiders territory so I'm very interested in this particular matchup but all in all the Patriots were down so bad after the first three weeks of the season Drake may look like he had never played quarterback before and seeing them go up to Buffalo and upset the bills yet again was obviously great to see so you.

53:59 Want to know the biggest one of the biggest reasons outside of Drake may playing really well that changed things for the Patriots Erickson.

54:05 Does have to do with using motion has.

54:07 To do with use emotion and using play action Last week, Josh McDaniels dialed up motion at 75.3% of their plays, 33.7% play action rates.

54:17 Those were both top 12 clips.

54:20 You look at the first three weeks of the season, 53.9% motion, 21.7% play action.

54:28 It made a world of difference.

54:30 And walking into this week, so like I actually sat down on Saturday and I was like, man, I haven't gotten to Drake Mays all 22. I haven't actually watched all of his games and stuff. I sat down and watched all the games up to week four, and I was like, he still looks like the same guy, but he's pressing. There's a lot to be had where he's going for the big play. He's not taking the smart plays underneath. What I took away from that is the offense didn't look broken in design. He was pressing, and he was missing a lot of plays. I do think in all of this, though, and I want to say this very quickly is that I think the shoulder thing is a real concern for Drake may, because when you turn on the film for him, his throws at certain

55:16 points where he's throwing off platform, it's all arm. He doesn't have his base under him. The zip is lacking a little bit. So I do think that the shoulder thing is real. Now, how real is it? We'll see how it goes through as more hits pile up more throws and stuff. Like as we go through the season, I do think that the shoulder concerns that have kind of come out in the ether are, more legitimate than they are false.

55:40 This is a stock up clearly compared to the first three weeks of the season. It's not like a stock up compared to obviously preseason. It's just sort of like starting to get back close to his level. But obviously we expected it. I don't think any of us expected Drake May to look like he didn't know how to play quarterback the entire year. So at some point we thought this was coming. Erickson, you were all over this matchup for him last week. Just like this is what happens in the NFL is, you know, the Patriots look as terrible as they can. They go to Buffalo, a place they played well before, and they upset the Bills.

56:06 And that's exactly what happened. Debra, who's your stock up?

56:10 The Vegas Raiders, baby.

56:12 Dude, they're 3-1. They go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs. Kirko Chains is making a few plays out of structure.

56:20 Like, who is this man? Who is this?

56:23 I was not told of this man. Right now, they are 9th best in points per drive. Their defense, Max Crosby does not look like a player that is on his last leg. This defense is playing very, very well. Like, they've got a functional offense. Now I'm very curious, like as teams get more film on them, what does the offense look? Cause they still have definitive, like they are having issues with the offensive line still and issues trying to run the ball. Brock Bowers is basically playing wide receiver, running a lot of hitch routes. He's excelling versus zone, but you know, when they play a team that can man up and try to take him out of the game, What's that going to look like? Like, I mean, they get the Patriots this week, a lot of man coverage.

57:06 Does that look a lot different than, you know, you have a lot of these other teams they've played to this point. Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, Chiefs, a lot of too high defense, not a lot of man coverage that you're going to see. So, you know, what do they look like for the entirety of the season? But right now, like.

57:23 Could the Raiders make it into the playoffs as a wildcard team? It's possible, man. Not a statement that anybody, any one of us would have made. And I was very big on Fernando Mendoza not starting and Kirko looking good enough to keep him off the field. I didn't see this version of the Raiders coming. Sure didn't. So hats off.

57:42 Yeah. I mean, they they're they like the seventh best point differential in football. And I know I keep going back to that stat, but I'm like, they have a better point differential than the Bills, the Ravens, the Bengals. the rams i'm like.

57:54 Crazy like at the at the core of all of the things playing football score more points than the other team and don't give up a lot of points so.

58:03 Now you know it is worth noting that of the top seven teams in point differential this year four of them are the four opponents who have played the dolphins so i just i it is worth noting that that has been helpful to some of these teams and now not that the vikings blew them out but You know, I just want to point that out when I mentioned, like, oh, the Niners have this great differential. The Raiders have this great differential. They have taken advantage of the Dolphins. But that is what good teams do. I'm totally with you, D-Bro.

58:30 And in fact, before you picked them, this was going to be my stock up of the day, was just them looking like they belonged with the Chiefs. It's not even like, yes, they lost. Yes, the Chiefs, I do think, are the better team and the deserving winner in that game. They belonged in the same field. That was not the case last year. It hasn't been the case in a lot of years in the Mahomes era. I was really impressed.

58:48 I totally agree with you as a playoff contender. I think we talked about a little bit last week in our conclusion segment that this team looked pretty good. And then to go out and sort of live up to that with a close game against the Chiefs, I was super impressed, Erickson. Yeah.

59:00 I mean, you look at toe-to-toe with Kansas City, did not look overmatched whatsoever. They look like just as good, if not the better team on Sunday night. it did not work out in their favor, but still not overmatched. And that was a big litmus test, right? I wanted to see what the Raiders did when they were going up a class in terms of opponent. And for all intents and purposes, they met the demand of the Kansas City Chiefs. So I don't think that again, nobody wants like a moral victory, but I do think, or a moral loss, but I do think the Raiders did look really good. And that's why I'm not super confident, you know, picking my Patriots against them this week. I think it's a really intriguing matchup with the Raiders going on the

59:37 road to face the Patriots. Both teams kind of struggle to run the football. I'm actually curious what you guys think. So Ashton Gentry right now is fifth worst in EPA per rush this season. I think this team, if they actually want to make a playoff push, they have to get another wide receiver on this roster. Like, I think when you look at what is threatening defense's downfield, literally nothing.

1:00:00 Trey Tucker, like that's not happening. So for me, the perfect guy, and I think I talked about this in one of the offseason shows, is get Brian Thomas Jr. to the Las Vegas Raiders. We've already seen Jacksonville and the Raiders make a trade. Jacksonville traded for Jacoby Myers last season. And if you're the Jaguars, who did you lose to this year? The Denver Broncos. So you lose a tiebreaker to Denver. You want the Raiders to beat the Denver Broncos. Who do you want the Raiders to also beat? The Kansas City Chiefs at some point. Like, I think that makes way more sense than Jacksonville just keeping Brian Thomas Jr. in a limited time role when, hey, let's go help out our Raiders folk, help them beat

1:00:37 the teams that beat us in the Denver Broncos and get a draft pick or something back in return. So that's what I think they need to do, whether it's Brian Thomas Jr., whether it's Marvin Harrison Jr., whether it's somebody, they need to add another wide receiver that can tape the top off the football and just give a vertical threat.

1:00:52 Cause I think that'll actually help the run game a little bit with Ashton. You see this too, with like a player like Jonathan Taylor, his splits are significantly worse when you don't have a player like Al Pierce. And instead that guy is like one Treadwell teams are not afraid of the client Treadwell. So it makes it easier to stop and key in on a running back like Jonathan Taylor. I think that's also part of the issue with the Raiders run game is they're not afraid of anybody taking the top off the defense.

1:01:16 If you look at the playoff picture in the AFC, let's assume Bills win their division, Ravens win their division, Jags win their division, Chiefs win their division. So you're looking at three wildcard spots, those teams off the board. The teams that the Raiders are competing with are the Patriots, who are 2-2 and are coming off a good game, but that makes this game really important for them. None of the AFC South teams, I don't think, because Texas are 0-4 and we don't like the Colts. The Broncos are 2-2 and haven't looked good. So it's like the Patriots, the Broncos, and then whatever's going on in the AFC North. Bengals, Steelers, and Browns obviously are all two and two or better.

1:01:48 Just to throw it out there. We don't really believe in the Browns. I don't really believe in the Steelers long-term. So again, it's like, there's basically like four teams for three spots. That could obviously change. The Lansing game is going to look a lot different by the end of the season. But I'm like, the Raiders are plus 165 consensus odds in bettingpros.com to make the playoffs right now.

1:02:04 I'm like, that's their competition. They just have to beat out one of those teams as of right now. And they're a playoff team. And by the way, they have a game up on all of those teams I just mentioned besides the Browns. Like, I don't see why they shouldn't be considered a team that can make the playoffs.

1:02:17 I think you're totally spot on here.

1:02:18 I don't disagree at all.

1:02:19 And what I think, one of the very fascinating things that I wanted to get y'all's take on this.

1:02:25 All right. The next three games are the litmus test.

1:02:29 Give me the record of the next three weeks. Patriots, Bills, Rams. What is the record over the next three weeks? Did they go 3-0?

1:02:37 Did they go 0-3?

1:02:38 Erickson, where are they at the next three weeks?

1:02:43 Yeah, because you could see them very much going 0-3 and then being like, it was a Fugazi.

1:02:49 Let's see them going 3-0.

1:02:51 Well, because they're not going to be favored in any of those games. No matter what. They could go out and kill the Patriots and they'll still be underdogs against the Bills and they're still going to be underdogs against the Rams unless Matthew Stafford's hurt.

1:03:02 I'm going to say 1-2.

1:03:05 That was my initial lean to it.

1:03:07 I think they sneak one of them. I don't know which. Patriots, obviously the best chance probably, other than the Rams have them. been playing that well lately i think they get one of those three and so then that puts them at four and.

1:03:16 I feel like i'm i also feel like i'm describing.

1:03:18 I'll get i'm actually gonna lean the positive side i'm gonna make them two and one i think.

1:03:22 One you think they lose against i think they lose one of these.

1:03:25 Games if they go they sneak out if they go two and one those playoff odds are going to turn minus real quickly.

1:03:30 So especially if they beat i mean the patriots we just had a long conversation of oh drake may is back but they had the volatility of that The Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen's had some stinker games too. It's not like he hasn't. That defense can be had. The Rams, we just talked about they almost lost to the freaking Eagles.

1:03:47 So I'm not saying they go 3-0. I think they can get two wins here, boys.

1:03:52 I think they can.

1:03:53 Dude, black hole's back, baby.

1:03:55 That'd be fun. The NFL's better when the Raiders are good, just flat out is.

1:03:58 Oh, absolutely.

1:04:00 Cosign.

1:04:01 Yeah. All right, my stock up. You guys went with teams, so I wanted to go actually with a coach. I'm just saying Liam Cullen. We talked a bit about the Jaguars earlier in the show, how we think they're one of the top four teams in football. I feel like this offseason, obviously, it's always who are the top ten coaches in football, right? Everybody does their rankings and their lists and has all the fun with it. And I feel like everybody looked at last year and said, we knew Ben Johnson was a great offensive coordinator. He looked really good in year one. He's automatically a top five coach already. We're just giving him that mantle right away.

1:04:33 And I think it's deserved. Ben Johnson's amazing. Liam Cohen has also had great offenses everywhere he's been, designs a great run game, had an awesome first year as a head coach as an offensive play caller, revitalized a former number one quarterback like Ben Johnson. And yet everybody was like, he's really good, but like, we need to see it another year. He's more in that like eight, nine range of the rankings. Whereas Ben Johnson was like number four in a lot of people's lists. I think Liam Cohen deserves to be in that. There's a lot of really good coaches, but I think he deserves to be in that conversation as a top five or six head coach. Like, I don't know how much more we need to see.

1:05:07 He checks every box we look for out of the up and coming offensive head coach masterminds. He's worked with Sean McVay. So he comes from that tree. He, again, has done it at both the college level at Kentucky. He did it with Tampa Bay. He didn't just call out a great offense last year. He won a lot of games. He won 13 games. He totally changed Trevor Lawrence's career. He's made good defensive coordinator hire with Campanile. Like, I just don't know what more we need to see to say this guy is one of the– is he Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay? No, we do need to see more to get there. But I don't understand the disparity between him and Ben Johnson other than Ben Johnson is a better quote in front of the press conferences.

1:05:45 Because to me, they both have very similar resumes to what they've done in the NFL so far. And the Jags look awesome. I think they are one of the two best teams in the AFC right now. Again, that could change if the Bills defense pulls it together or Lamar is healthy. But them and the Chiefs feel like the top two four weeks into the season. And I think Cohen deserves credit. And his stock is up for me in terms of his ranking amongst all NFL quarterbacks, Erickson.

1:06:07 Yeah, I could not agree more. I think that they're legit Super Bowl contenders. They find different ways to win, whether it's on offense, whether it's in defense, whether it's a low scoring game or high scoring game. I think that there's one of the most complete teams in the NFL. And I think Liam Cohen's record, what you said, he won 13 games last year, right? Yeah. So he is 16 and five since the beginning of last year.

1:06:26 It's pretty good.

1:06:28 It's pretty good. And I think, too, the reason he doesn't get as much hype is because he plays in.

1:06:33 A small market.

1:06:34 That's one of the reasons.

1:06:35 Yes. I was just about to say the same thing. The same exact spiel of Trevor Lawrence and all these Jacksonville receivers. They were all cheaper than the bears because it's just the Jaguars were the, the bears of the Florida and they just have not as good as a publicist as Ben Johnson in the Chicago bears does. And that's why Jacksonville was flying under the radar. It seemed like all off season. And I think that Liam Cohen even mentioned that he's like, yeah, We don't get as much hype or as press as the Bears do, but we don't care. All we do is go out and win games. And I think you're going to continue to see that. I think that they're just going to continue to go on a streak. I know they dropped that

1:07:09 game in Denver, but I know when we were previewing that game where we talked about how Denver.

1:07:12 Early season at Denver is tough for players.

1:07:16 And it's not like they went out there and got absolutely blown up, blown out. Like it was a game where they had a chance and they just couldn't finish it out in the fourth quarter. So, Besides that, I mean, they've been looked really, really good on both sides of the football. Again, you talk about teams that brought back a lot of the same guys they had last year.

1:07:32 No team had like less turnover than the Jacksonville Jaguars. And people looked at that as like, man, like you didn't do anything to improve your roster. It's like, well, our roster was really good last year. So we didn't really need to shake things up too significantly. I know that their draft wasn't exactly the greatest, but in terms of what they have in their starting lineup and the pieces they have in place and Trevor Lawrence and Liam Cohen's offense for another year.

1:07:51 Yeah.

1:07:52 I think this is a great stock up to call out for him.

1:07:55 You hit one of the two reasons why I felt like he doesn't get, it's the market size, why he doesn't get the respect by national media and the national attention like Ben Johnson does. You throw Liam Cohen in Chicago and he's beloved by everybody.

1:08:10 Exactly.

1:08:10 Throw him in a major media market and he's plastered everywhere. The other part about it is, I think that people look at him as being a goofball because of his opening press conference, the fact that he's more mild mannered and he's got, you know, nerd in the spreadsheets kind of vibes. But that's why people don't respect him enough, man.

1:08:29 But again, like that can be why the Jacksonville Jaguars sneak up on teams like like, OK, I don't think we're good enough and we're going to put all the bulletin board stuff up.

1:08:36 OK, fine.

1:08:37 We'll show you the end of the day. We're going to have more points than you.

1:08:41 Just because I brought it up a lot. They're second in the NFL in point differential right now. Second fewest points allowed. And that's not even the strength of the head coach, which is the offense where they're something like six or seven.

1:09:00 Can hang with you. If you want to play grimy, we can do that. You want to run the ball and try to stop us. We can do that, but that's teams that make long playoff runs that deep into the playoffs, because you are presented with all different types of opponents.

1:09:14 And some are going to try to take this away, this way, this way. It's going to be cold. It's going to be rainy. It's going to be indoors.

1:09:21 If you can be multiple and play in a lot of different game environments, that's how you make a deep playoff run. When you are stuck, like, if we can't pass the ball, we're kind of screwed. If we can't stop the run, we're kind of screwed.

1:09:33 Parker Washington, this superstar we all love, had one catch for seven yards yesterday, and it didn't matter. They were up 22 to 10 late in that game.

1:09:41 He's like, all right, fine.

1:09:45 We'll throw to Brenton Strange and Josh Cameron, and we'll not dominate, but win pretty handily against the Bengals.

1:09:50 And two, when you talk about, look at who Jacksonville's played. They haven't played anybody with a losing record. They destroyed the Browns. They're the only team that beat the Browns.

1:10:00 And they destroyed them.

1:10:01 They lost to Denver, but they still played them tough on the road. They beat the Bengals on the road and they destroyed the Patriots.

1:10:06 Like three of those four teams we.

1:10:08 Looked at as playoff teams entering this season. And now they're going to be taking on, again, another team that we looked at as a playoff team. That was one thing that people pushed back with Jacksonville in the preseason was, well, look at their opening schedule. It's really tough. And I remember looking at that as well. But then I was thinking, what if they come out on top of the schedule?

1:10:26 This team is going to be able to make a run because they're showing against teams that we've viewed as playoff teams. They're dominating.

1:10:33 They have the fourth lowest odds to win the AFC right now. That, to me, is a mistake. They should have shorter odds than that.

1:10:40 Yeah, they should. They should. And by the way.

1:10:41 Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs are all shorter odds. I think that's a mistake.

1:10:44 Parker Washington bounce back game versus Cooper Dejean this week. Calling it now.

1:10:49 All right. We've gone way too long here. So let's just give our stock downs and get out of here without much back and forth. Erickson, who's your stock down?

1:10:56 Los Angeles Chargers again. Office of injuries, turnovers continue to destroy this team. The schedule remains absolutely brutal. Rashawn Slater, Joe Alt, Vlad McConkie, all added with injuries this past week. Justin Herbert has become a turnover machine. And who did it get to play this week? Guys, who is it?

1:11:17 By the way, just quickly, Slater is high ankle sprain. The MRI showed officially this morning.

1:11:23 It's so over.

1:11:26 I actually looked at my off-season bet for the charge to win over 11 and a half games. Guess how much I can get for my cash out. I was just happy that they let me cash out at all.

1:11:37 By the way, when you asked, they're playing the Broncos this week.

1:11:39 Yeah, so another tough, tough spot for LA.

1:11:42 You're lucky if you can get a sandwich for that cash out, bud.

1:11:46 Prank.

1:11:47 Debro, what's your stock down?

1:11:48 Broncos, man. Super Bowl contender, they are not. Bo Nix looks terrible.

1:11:55 I'll just say it while you're saying yours to save time. Bo Nix was my stock down.

1:11:58 Dude, he looks terrible.

1:12:00 He looks like he's regressed so much.

1:12:02 People talk about, what is the problem with Jalen Waddell? The problem with Jalen Waddell is Bo Nix. The problem with Jalen Waddell is definitely Bo Nix. And the problem with Bo Nix is Bo Nix.

1:12:11 Also, we can add a little Davis Webb conversation into all this.

1:12:15 But Yeah, Bo Nix is third worst in yards per attempt, 6.2 air yards per attempt, which is second lowest in the NFL, behind only... Doesn't have a clue.

1:12:26 The Bo Nix of all of this is, it doesn't matter the play design when he bails the pocket or can't throw an accurate pass. Does not matter what the play is called if he can't run it. And it's, again, talking about a team where... Erickson, you brought it up earlier. Defensive volatility... This defense doesn't look Super Bowl caliber. And then when you get to like now they have certain is hurt that they're rushing the passer.

1:12:49 But outside of that, what are they doing?

1:12:50 Well, they can't tackle. They have one of the highest missed tackle rates. They're they're got awful defense. They can't throw the ball and they can't run the ball. So what does this team do?

1:13:01 Well. Nothing.

1:13:03 Yeah, I totally agree. Obviously, like I said. Bo Nix was my stock down. Chargers, Broncos. Bo Nix was fantasy QB 7 each of his first two seasons in the NFL. He has had one game this season better than QB 18 finish. I mean, it just looks like it. Not that I thought he was great. I wasn't totally bought into him being some superstar quarterback or anything. But, man, he looks worse.

1:13:24 Any chance Bo Nix gets a Bryce Young type of benching at some point this season if he continues to look like this?

1:13:29 I don't think so.

1:13:30 I don't think so.

1:13:31 I'm just asking the question because he's looked that bad.

1:13:34 They're not going to do that before they put Sean Payton back in charge.

1:13:37 Of playing college. I'm just asking the question because he's looked that bad.

1:13:42 I mean, I think that there's a common theme with, if you look at a lot of these teams that are stocked down, it's new offensive coordinator, new offensive coordinator, new offensive play caller, chargers. You look at the Denver Broncos, you look at the Philadelphia Eagles.

1:13:54 I was just going to say, who's been the worst first year play caller, Sean Mannion or Davis Webb? I mean, Daniel, he's pretty bad, but he's, he's done it before, but yeah.

1:14:03 I would say Davis.

1:14:04 A lot of them have struggled. Like, like Declan Doyle. We've talked to, we've heaped a lot of praises on a lot of the other first timers have not been good in, in there.

1:14:13 We also give praise on the other side of this for Brad Itzig and Carolina.

1:14:16 With how good he's done. But he, but again, again, he is the outlier in this entire conversation.

1:14:22 Yeah. All right. We'll go and wrap things up there. We went a little long today. Hope everybody enjoyed the conversation. reacting to week four. For D-Bro and Erickson, I'm Ryan Wormley. We'll see you again next time.