NFL Week 5 Props to Bet: Top 10 Picks, TD Longshots & Best Bets (Ep. 2254)

0:02 Welcome back. It's the BP Top 10 Prop Picks. I'm your host for the day, Scott Bogdan, joined by Joe Madden. We know that you guys are used to Welsh and Erickson here. They're both on vacation. Who gets a vacation in the middle of the season, Joe?

0:14 Not us.

0:15 We're here.

0:15 Yeah, I don't know anyone who takes a vacation during football. Maybe they've got some unlucky weddings to go to.

0:22 Yeah, I know Welsh is going to a concert. He's taking his son to a concert. It's like his birthday present. So I know that one. Don't know what Erickson is doing. Probably a wedding. Like you said, it is wedding season. Our boy Seth Wolcock, I know, going to a wedding this weekend as well. I'm like, man, you're getting a lot of free drinks. You were a couple of weeks ago as well. Yeah, that's the benefit. If you have to go and miss your games, at least you get an open bar. We hope they enjoy it. But you get us four prop picks. I've been hot. I'm not guaranteeing any hotness in this one. But Joe, it feels weird.

0:56 We're usually pigeonholed to Monday Night Football props only.

1:00 Yeah.

1:01 Or I am, I do the Monday and the Sunday night and then the Thursday night, but we got to pick from the whole weekend. It was kind of hard to narrow it down. How was it for you?

1:09 Yeah. Exciting to narrow it down, right? There's so many opportunities for us to jump in on some of these players and I'm excited for it, especially the, you know, those first touchdown props. I don't do a lot of those, but always exciting to put a sprinkle.

1:22 Absolutely. Absolutely. So we will hit your 10 props. We'll give you anytime touchdowns and we'll give you some first touchdowns as well. But before we dive in, Let's take a look at what the boys did last week. Looks like a three and two week for Andrew Erickson. Didn't get his Josh Downs call. Did get Chase Brown under 16 and a half rush attempts. He also got Brent Strange over 33 and a half. That one cleared real quick.

1:49 Jalen Wright under 29 and a half. He was absolutely on that one and missed his Jared Goff under 34 and a half pass attempts because he had 52. Lots of pass attempts. attempts for Detroit. That secondary just cannot keep anything contained. So they're going to have to probably play point for point a lot this season until, uh, those safeties come back. Uh, you know, Brian branch of Kirby Joseph get back. That's not going to help him a corner though. They're still bad out there. Uh, I know they were in on, uh, my guy, Joey Porter jr, but the Cowboys ended up with him. Uh, we have Welsh with a, uh, two and three week bringing him to 10 and 10 on the season. Miss that Parker Washington one, man, did he run cold? Malik Willis also

2:30 didn't get over the 29 and a half. And Mac Hollins got injured in this game. He was at three and a half receptions. He went out after three, of course, just the way it goes. But Welsh nailed the Colson Loveland receiving yards over. He had 57 yards. Andy Jordan love passing touchdowns over one and a half was an easy get as well. One 97, two and one. So let's dive in here for week number five, Joe. You are going to be up first. And sorry, guys, I don't have ROI for these guys. They can tell you next week. And by the way, we need some. They do those sexy pics for those guys. You know, they're like like Welsh is doing blue steel. Andrew Erickson is from the side on his. We need to get some.

3:14 We need to get some of these or something going for our record next week. So to join on the graphics team here, let's dive in. What is your first bet? We have the whole weekend to pick from. It feels wild. What's your first bet you want to take?

3:30 Up nice and early with Jalen Hurts. I'm looking at him to go under six and a half rushing attempts. as the Eagles travel late here to London to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Now, this is one that is supported by the Betting Pros app, projected for 5.7 rushing attempts in this game. He stayed under in seven of his last 10, you guys, including the last three. And I'm looking here at Hertz, and I just think, even though we know he's so explosive, he could go for a run of 15 yards. I don't think that's going to be the game plan here. We know so many changes with the Eagles on the offensive side of the ball and the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed only 19 rushing attempts to opposing quarterbacks thus far this season across four games.

4:12 That's an average of 4.75 rushing attempts. Now, I think it's going to come right down to the wire. I think he's right on that number of six, but six and a half is just too high for me.

4:21 Yeah, I like this one as well. Like if he is going to run, they've had so many injuries, it would be kind of foolish to design a bunch of runs. for him and have your quarterback get hurt too with three offensive linemen down and no Devante Smith and Saquon Barkley hurt. Like let's keep this guy upright. Let's get some quick passes. Let's run with Will Shipley and let's do everything we can to keep this guy on his feet.

4:45 I think if he does run, it's probably goal line stuff or fourth and one tush push type thing. So I'm with you on this one for sure. I think that the number one priority for Philly is keeping your one star offensive player. That's healthy, healthy coming out of this game. So I'm absolutely with you on the Jalen hurts call. My first one here is going to be Brock pretty under 32 and a half pass attempts. Uh, this one is at minus one 20. Now look, no Andrew Erickson here. So I didn't want to go over on everything. We know the undertaker is a big part of the show. So I wanted to hit a couple of unders here before I go to my, uh, overs, but a BP projection is, have him at 30.9 pass attempts, so under 32.5. He's only hit this one time in

5:30 week one this season. That was the Australia game. Seven career starts against Seattle, and he's only gone over 32 pass attempts once. Seattle is 24th in pass attempts against as well. So I just think that Brock Purdy probably doesn't need to throw it 32.5 times in this game. What are your thoughts on Brock Purdy playing against the Seahawks in his past attempts here.

5:54 Yeah.

5:54 I think you're going to have a balanced attack out of the San Francisco 49ers. He's not going to need to throw it up that many times. My only concern is if the Seattle Seahawks do get up, but I'm expecting it to be a tighter game between these two and him not to go over that number. And you know, that defense, they're going to be all over him. They're going to put that pressure on him and they're going to find a way to get to him in this game if he holds the ball too long.

6:16 So I love where you're going with that one.

6:19 I think the thing that pushed me over when I've doing, you know, looking up things was the fact that they played seven times. He's only gone over once. So, uh, I think this could, you know, almost an AFC North-ish type of game between these two, you know, uh, grimy, dirty, big hits, that type of stuff. So I think it's probably best to keep Brock Purdy upright as well. Um, before we move on, let me tell you guys, you can find the NFL player prop bets with the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet, quickly compare lines from leading sports books against baseball. Our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value. You can make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props.

7:02 All right, Joe, what is number two for you?

7:04 Well, I'm going to roll with another under and another quarterback here. I'm looking at Daniel Jones. I'm looking at his past attempts. And this number is just too high coming in at 31 and a half. The Colts are facing the Steelers and we know how solid the Steelers defense is and they're going to put that pressure on Daniel Jones in this one. You got Daniel Jones and the Colts returning from overseas as well. And the Steelers, they've allowed 114 passing attempts. So an average of 28.5 passing attempts per game to opposing quarterbacks. And I think this is going to be a hard one here. for Daniel Jones to be able to put those passing attempts on the board. I'm looking for them to really rely on a heavy run game here with Jonathan Taylor and

7:44 not have to utilize his arm because utilizing his arm against the secondary here, the Steelers is going to be a hard thing to do. Plus his center didn't practice on Wednesday here.

7:55 He was in a brace in a boot.

7:58 So he's not going to be in the lineup if I had to say anything about it.

8:02 So I think Daniel Jones stays under the number.

8:05 This is where he tore his Achilles last year as well, was in Pittsburgh. So weird kind of return here. I don't know. The Steelers are so weird. That's my team. So I watch them every single week, but the defense has been solid. So I think if you're smart, you run Jonathan Taylor way more than you let Daniel Jones put the ball in the air and get hit by TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith. So I'm with you on that one, and guess what? We're going to go with another under. I swear I have overs here. We're going to play more overs than unders, but I'm going to go with another under, and it's Jordan Love under 33.5 pass attempts at minus 109. 32.4 is his total here, but he's gone over this twice, but Chicago has been

8:47 hogging the ball. Chicago is first in time of possession right now. 36-35 is their average. Green Bay, 31st. in time of possession, 26-14 is their average time of possession in games. And it's just a beat up Green Bay team right now. The offensive line, obviously, really, really shot. I don't know if you want Jordan Love standing back there passing this many times against Chicago. And Chicago's defense has been good enough and their offense has been strong enough to not give the ball up. So six starts against the Bears in his career, and he has never had more than 32 pass attempts in a game against them.

9:27 Another under here, we're channeling our Andrew Erickson Love and Jordan Love, under 32.5. So what are your thoughts on this one, Jo? Brilliant.

9:36 Jordan Love can't even make those passes anyway, so I don't think he's going to get those attempts out there. We know the Green Bay Packers are absolutely struggling, and I had so many hopes for the offense, but with Josh Jacobs out, unable to establish that run, they can't get those pass attempts even. So I think it's a really solid way to go.

9:55 Thank you. All right. What's next for you?

9:57 I've gotten over a free guys.

9:59 I'm looking at JSN for Seattle and I'm taking him over 94 and a half or receiving yards at home versus the 49ers. And I look at the 49ers and I look at the injuries.

10:10 On this team. And I think, JSN will absolutely feast.

10:14 Now, I know last week versus the Chargers, he wasn't able to go over this number, which I was kind of shocked by with only 76 receiving yards in that on five receptions. But looking at all three of the other games this season, he's cleared 100 receiving yards. He had 128 at Washington, 155 at Arizona, and 122 versus New England. I'm looking for him to absolutely feast here as Sam Darnold feeds him the ball.

10:40 Yeah, I know that large totals can be a little bit intimidating. I'm also on the Pukunukuwa over for Monday Night Football. I think his is 92 and a half. It's these big totals, but you give the big guys the big totals, right? And that's exactly what JSN has been. And even our resident Niners fan, the Welsh, has said, look, they still can't cover, right? Things are getting better for San Francisco. They've looked really good, but they still are kind of weak on the back end. So I think JSN does say on this game, it's a high total, but one you don't need to be intimidated by because it is JSN. You give the big guys these big totals and they clear them routinely. I'm going to go with another big guy that is healthy right now, or

11:26 at least we think so. Nico Collins, over five and a half receptions. It's minus 122 at the Titans. He's passed this in both of the games that he's played. Eight targets, seven catches, 115 and two scores against Dallas. Before that, it was a seven for 75 and a score in the, the first game of the season, but wide receivers versus Tennessee. I mean, three of the big dogs have cleared this in the four games that they played today. Flowers had eight for one 18 and a score.

11:50 Devante Smith had 13 targets, 10 catches, 117 and a score and care. Wilson had seven targets, six catches and 79 yards. So everyone has gone over this five and a half fairly easy. We saw how much better this offense moved with Nico Collins in there. Hopefully we can get something just a little bit from David Montgomery. My gosh, has he been just a ghost the last three weeks?

12:16 It's been terrible. So, uh, but everything in this offense moves better. And we saw CJ Stroud, even though they lost last week, it was one of CJ Stroud's best games in the regular season that he's ever played. So hopefully we're getting more of that moving forward for the Texans. They're depressing H town. That's where I live. So They have not been liking this start for the Texans. My fault, by the way, I did pick them to go to the Superbowl. So this is on me.

12:39 It's totally on you.

12:41 Why did you do that? I'm stupid. I just, I watched him beat my sealers into the dirt in the playoffs. And I go, okay, you get CJ Stroud coming back. He played better down the stretch. You improve your offensive line. You have this killer defense and the defense has been the problem and they haven't made many changes. That's kind of crazy. So, Yep. Houston, you can blame me. This is completely my fault, 100%, that the Texans have been bad.

13:08 But what are your thoughts on Nico Collins here against Tennessee? There might be a little weather here as well coming off that hurricane.

13:15 Yeah, against Tennessee here, he definitely should be able to put those receptions up on the board. The Houston Texans need to find a way to dig deep and get a win. I still can't believe they're sitting in the position they are, because I was like you. I believed in that defense, and I'm not sure what really happened to this defense that we saw last season, because I expected them to come out so much stronger, and I kind of doubted C.J.

13:36 Strout out there.

13:37 I didn't expect him to be able to make those clutch plays when needed as much as he has so far this season. So, I think this is the game where you want to go in on Houston. That's the Tennessee. It's the Titans here. Then the Titans are going to struggle, right? They're going to struggle to stop them. And hopefully this defense comes to play. So I'd totally roll with Nico Collins over.

13:59 The Titans offense might be the biggest issue. Like I think the players on defense are okay, but the offense holds the ball. So little, uh, lots of three and outs. Cam award has not been putting it together. They haven't been putting pressure to score. So teams run in the second half against them. But I think you go to Nico early, you go to Nico often when he's healthy.

14:20 And I think we're going to see a continuation of that for sure here. Before we move on to the next bet, let me tell you guys, I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's a stock exchange for sports buying in and selling out on your terms when your team goes down to 20%.

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15:11 Okay. I'm rolling with Tyson Badgett.

15:13 Of the Chicago Bears in Lambeau versus the Packers, I'm taking him over 10 and a half rushing yards. Now, I'm not asking him to be Caleb Williams and then to design schemes out here for him to run the ball. But you're looking at a Packers defense that has allowed 78 rushing yards so far on 22 attempts to opposing quarterbacks.

15:32 And they're going to put that pressure on Tyson Badgley. And as they put that pressure on him, I do think he Should be able to scramble enough to go over 10 and a half. It's not asking a lot. We've seen quarterbacks that are completely unmovable, like Matt Stafford, be able to go over this number. So I think Tyson Badgett could easily go over this. And when we look here at what the Packers have allowed, you know, you look at Daniels last week, the undrafted rookie coming out, eight rushing attempts for 55 rushing yards.

16:01 Tyson Badgett can get there.

16:03 Yeah.

16:04 And we mentioned before too, right? The time of possession. it's just so heavy in favor of Chicago against everybody. And the Packers almost dead last 31st in time of possession. So you talk about a guy that's going to have extra opportunities to get you these rushing yards. It should be Beijing and the bears this, uh, this week against the Packers. I think, you know, I still think the Packers are one of the better teams, but when you're missing a bunch of parts of your offensive line, your star running back pieces on defense too, like, You're going to get Josh Jacobs and Micah Parsons back at some point, right?

16:39 I do think things are going to look better for the Packers moving forward. But right now, it's just a really tough spot that they're in. And Chicago looks strong. And Chicago doing this all with backup quarterbacks is also weird. But we know Ben Johnson really wants to beat the Packers. He hates the Packers. I like that he embraced that, too.

17:00 Like if you're going to be a bears guy, you should hate the Packers. If you're going to be a Packers guy, you should hate the bears.

17:05 Right.

17:05 So, uh, we love that type of rivalry stuff, especially, you know, uh, being an AFC North man. I love to hate my rivals for sure. I think this one's my favorite pick of the week and it's one that, uh, BP did not agree with me on. So maybe take it with a grain of salt, but Michael Wilson over five and a half receptions for Detroit was plus money.

17:25 When I looked at it, plus one 15, he's seventh in receptions in the league so far. He's cleared this easy two weeks in a row. 17 targets, 11 catches, 89 yards, and a score against the Niners. 13 targets, 7 catches, 95 yards at the Giants. Detroit has allowed the most receptions to wide receivers. 61 receptions for 829 yards and 5 touchdowns. We talked about it earlier. Man, is Detroit's secondary rough. It is almost historically bad at this point. It looks terrible. and the Cardinals, their defense is going to give up points, right? This is why this is, I believe the highest point total of the week of 54 and a half are tied for it.

18:09 So Vegas expects a lot of points. I expect a lot of points. You know, Brissette has been targeting Michael Wilson. You know, Marvin Harrison caught that touchdown in the first quarter last week and then saw three other targets and didn't catch a single one of them. It's been all Trey McBride. It's been all Michael Wilson here. So this is why I said I'm big on this one. And the dude has had 30 targets in the last two games. Yeah, I think five and a half is definitely doable for Michael Wilson against the Lions here.

18:40 Well, especially when you're going to get plus money.

18:41 How can you say no if you're getting plus money for the over five and a half? And yeah, he should hit around eight out there. You said it about Detroit. We watched them in that last game and it was. depressing watching what they were giving up out there. I was pulling out my hair cause I was rolling with Detroit in that one and they just weren't able to get it done.

18:59 So I would look there as well.

19:01 I think the Cardinals might win that game. And I know a Welsh Welsh did not like that take, but I think the Cardinals have a chance. And when they're at home and the lions have been playing some bad football right now. So sorry, Detroit fans. I don't mean to, uh, to rain on anyone's parade here, but, uh, I, I think it'll get better for them too. They're going to get their safeties back, but it's rough on the perimeter for them for sure. And I think it's going to be a big Michael Wilson day. What's your last prop that you have here, Jo?

19:28 I'm turning back to that Texans game at Tennessee, and I'm looking at Woody Marks here for his rushing and receiving over 39.5. You said it earlier, David Montgomery is just not getting going, and we're seeing more workload coming in here for Woody Marks, and I'm looking for the Texans to get up in this one and them having to rely on that run game. With them having to rely on the run game, we're going to see Woody Marks in there, but I want to be cautious with that, because if all of a sudden Cam Ward and the offense of the Titans somehow get stuff going, and it's a competitive game, you know CJ Stroud's going to be put in the position where he has to throw that ball as well. And so the rushing and receiving for

20:07 Woody Marks, 39 and a half is such a doable number. He's only averaging 21.8 rushing yards, but 7.8 receiving. I think he gets, you know, 10 receiving, but 30 rushing yards. So we'll get there.

20:20 This is surprising to me. I guess it shouldn't be because of what we've seen, but I just went and looked at the snap counts for the Texans, right? 268 total. How do you think that split between Montgomery and Woody Marks?

20:33 I think Woody Marks has the majority.

20:35 He doesn't, but it's 146 to 122. It is within 24 snaps over four games. That's six snaps a game. That's barely any difference at all. And we all thought Monty was going to come in here and be, or at least I did. I shouldn't speak for you, but I thought Monty was going to come in here and be the bell cow for this team.

20:55 I thought so too.

20:56 Yeah, he's a three down back. And it seemed like last season, when they spoke about Woody Marks, they were consistently speaking about how Woody Marks was a very good receiving back, right? And that's kind of how they viewed him was as a third down back. Well, they're not using him like that this year at all. He's a three down guy and that is how they've been using him.

21:18 And I think that is going to continue moving forward here. So my last pick that I have here, This was a hard one, but I just saw this low number and plus money. And again, I had to go after it. It's RJ Harvey over five and a half rush attempts at the Chargers plus 106. This just seems way too low to me, even with his low production and them passing him the ball last week. He still had seven carries for 25 yards. The Chargers, I mean, teams have been beating the Chargers into the dirt. So they have allowed the fourth most rush attempts in the league this season at 105. I know J.K. Dobbins is still the main guy in terms of running the ball here. The script flipped. It was more R.J. Harvey in the second

22:04 half catching the ball. I think he had 10 catches last week. So very solid week for R.J. Harvey last week. I also think that he's just still the better back between him and Dobbins. So I think 5.5 is way too low. This is a plus 106. So we'll see how it changes going into the weekend. But I think just 5.5 rush attempts for R.J. Harvey is a bit too low for me. What do you think?

22:25 Well, did you hear the news?

22:26 The big news on Denver here? It just dropped right before we started recording. Sean Payton's taken back over the play calling. Oh, yes, yes.

22:33 I did see that.

22:34 Yeah, right.

22:35 I love that. Right.

22:36 Sean Payton is going to turn to that run game and turn to that run game heavy. I'm not sure why they ever tried anything else. Sean Payton is an offensive mastermind out there and he is going.

22:46 To have him just click. And so I love where you're going with that. I can't say no.

22:52 Yeah.

22:52 Yeah. That's, it's just too low of a total plus money, you know.

22:55 Plus the Chargers are terrible. They're my team.

22:58 I can say that Chargers fans, you can hate me, but I'm sure y'all agree with me.

23:02 Our team's terrible.

23:04 Yeah. Joe has been, uh, you know, we talk before and after the Monday night football live stream, you've been complaining about your team the whole year and who can blame you? They look miserable. What do you think about the Justin Herbert and Madison beer memes that we've seen? Those are, those are pretty good. I also saw one that said, um, It was an action figure. And it says Justin Herbert in his post game is his post NFL career. And he's in a subway outfit. So, you know, trade him.

23:30 The Chargers need to trade him. And I'm going to say that he can go somewhere else and have more success. Right.

23:35 The Chargers.

23:35 Look what they did to Philip Rivers. Look what they always do to their playmakers out there. We had LT and this team still couldn't get to the Super Bowl.

23:44 Like, come on.

23:45 It's Tom Brady, right? And Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning in the AFC. So I'm not going to– you can't blame all of it on them. All of it. That was a bad era that Phillip Rivers was in, but you'd think he'd get the one.

23:57 Come on. Yeah, you're right.

23:58 Come on. It's our coaching choices, right, out there?

24:02 That's what I was going to say. Do you think you'd rather have them fire Harbaugh than trade Harbaugh?

24:06 Harbaugh and McDaniel, let them both go. But the Chargers are always playing. There's always something happening with the Chargers ever since. I've been a fan of them.

24:14 Maybe it's my fault.

24:14 Maybe it's your defeatist. You got the defeatist attitude for sure. They're going to they're going to get better, I think. And I think, you know, four weeks. I saw people saying Caleb Downs is a bust after four weeks. I'm like, it's four weeks, guys. Like, let's relax. Let's take a beat here. I don't want to be like Aaron Rodgers, but maybe you do need to relax a little bit.

24:35 That's that's a bit much.

24:37 The only team that's ever gone 0-4 in the playoffs was the San Diego Chargers in, what, 92? So there's still hope. Chargers fans want to hear that.

24:46 The Superchargers, as Berman used to call them. But yeah, I mean, I feel like I just quit calling them San Diego like last year. So, you know, been better about it, but never perfect. All right. So we're going to go to our anytime touchdowns and first touchdown calls. But let me tell you guys, if you're looking for an edge in touchdown bats, our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats, the prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime touchdown bets. Head to bettingpros.com slash touchdown. for the latest touchdown prop analysis today. All right, Joe, anytime touchdowns, what do you got for us?

25:25 Okay.

25:26 I've got Garrett Wilson, the wide receiver of the jets for his anytime touchdown. It's coming in at plus one 40. He's got two touchdowns on the season. Definitely looking for his third here versus the Cleveland Browns. Now, one of the biggest issues with the Cleveland Browns is their ability to limit that passing attack out there. They've allowed the second most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers and through the first two weeks and Garrett Wilson will be targeted there in the end zone. So I know it's not as much value as you want it plus one 40, but I still think it's doable.

25:57 I like it. Who's number two for you.

25:59 Number two, I'm rolling with Stefan Diggs for the anytime paddy coming in at plus 170. Now, he's got three touchdowns on the season. He's looking for number four. Washington is at home in this one versus the Giants. Now, this is a big question mark if Stefan Diggs is playing. I do think he's going to play in this one.

26:18 I'm with Jaden Daniels back in the lineup because Stefan Diggs is dealing with a hamstring injury. But if he's good to go, he's going to get those targets. He's already seen four targets there in the red zone and the uh, giants defense has allowed the seventh most touchdowns to wide receivers.

26:34 I like it. And what's the, I think these guys, by the way, do two for you. We're going to do three. So what do you have for your third?

26:41 Oh, third, we're getting a great plus money here with Bo Nix for the anytime Teddy versus my charger was coming in at plus four 10. I think it's a sneaky play here. We've seen him with one rushing touchdown on the season. That was versus the Rams in week three in that 30 to 26 win. And the chargers have already given up Two rushing touchdowns thus far on the season to opposing quarterbacks. That was Josh Allen in both of those. And I know Bo Nix is no Josh Allen, but Bo Nix has the mobility. And in that tight situation in the end zone, he's able to make those calls on himself. So I like Bo Nix, especially with Sean Payton back calling the plays.

27:18 Yeah, I like these calls. These are definitely some strong ones. Bo Nix, I feel like I missed that one. like six times last year. I called Bo Nix for a rushing touchdown so many times and I feel like I was the cooler. So hopefully you're the heater on Bo Nix because I can't go back to it. I missed it too many times last year. This week for my touchdown calls, I'm going to go Nico Collins. We already talked about the receptions against Tennessee plus five and a half or five and a half or more. We're on that and it's plus 140 here for him to score a touchdown. Scored a couple last week as well. I just think that he is At this point, when you don't have much of a run game, who is more likely to score a touchdown on the Texans than Nico Collins?

28:04 And they have a really good matchup here this week against Tennessee. So hopefully the rain and wind doesn't impact this. And it looks, the weather report that we had was not terrible. It was a 47% chance of rain when I looked today. So that doesn't guarantee us rain. But if we do get a nasty storm, of course, come off of those. But I think this is going to be a clear enough game for Nico to score at least one. My next one, this one's in a dome, so no excuses here. Trey McBride, plus 120 versus Detroit.

28:36 I mean, they're going to go to him early and often. It's every single week. I don't know that there is a pass catcher that is more likely to score a touchdown on a week-to-week basis than Trey McBride. So when I see it at plus money, it's almost an auto-take. So Trey McBride, plus 120 against a miserable... uh, Detroit lions secondary right now at home, no referees cursing at him.

29:01 I think he's going to be much better, uh, this week. So plus one 20, we're going there. And then I'll, I'll throw a dart on a deeper one. Uh, we just heard that Michael Pittman is going to miss this game and multiple other games. I'm going to go to Roman Wilson because his number was sitting at plus two 50 against the Colts. Aaron Rogers loves this dude. We saw him get the pop pass on Thursday night football and score on that one. He's had a couple of chunk gainers as well. Uh, Colt secondary, uh, been playing well.

29:30 If you're not sauce Gardner, man, sauce Gardner is getting torched out there. They traded two first round picks for this dude too. So a little bit surprising, but, uh, so mine are going to be a Nico Collins, Trey McBride and Roman Wilson as my anytime touchdown calls, uh, Joe, these are impossible. First touchdown calls. Uh, I, they're not my favorite. We'll give you a couple here because the boys have been doing it. But what are your thoughts on first touchdown scores? What do you have for us?

29:59 Yeah, they're a little bit fun and they're a lot fun for the bank account when they do cash. So my first one is going to go with St. Brown's for the Lions coming in at plus 700 versus the Arizona Cardinals. He's already racked up five touchdowns through the first four games, and Arizona's past defense has struggled, giving up 11 passing touchdowns. So we need Detroit to have the ball first because otherwise I think the Cardinals are going to score. You've already talked about your touchdowns there with McBride, and he has every ability to get the first touchdown if the Cardinals have.

30:31 The ball first. So Lions, St. Brown, plus 700. Let's take a shot.

30:35 Yeah, look, uh, I'm more than willing to have Trey McBride score the second touchdown of this game. So as long as he gets in the end zone at some point, that's all we care about.

30:43 Yeah. And then I'm going to look at Justin Jefferson for the first touchdowns for the Vikings at the saints. That's coming in at plus 800. Now this is another one. If he plays because of that ankle sprain, but everything is pointing to him playing here. Why? Well, because this is his home state of Louisiana. And the first time he's going to be able to play here is in front of his home state, and he is so eager to get out there. This is a storyline bet, right?

31:09 Justin Jefferson, if we get the Vikings getting the ball first, he's going to want to be that first star. He's going to make sure he gets open out there for Kyler Murray. So I'm going to roll with that one. Good luck on these first touchdowns here.

31:22 Yeah, we'll see. These are hard to hit. And we're fighting, too, because my first touchdown call is going to be Aaron Jones. Not nearly the payout of Justin Jefferson, though. It's half. at plus 400, but geez, are they giving the ball to Aaron Jones? So many times they do not trust DJ Dallas. They do not trust them in Claiborne. I kind of like Claiborne coming out of Wake Forest. Uh, you know, I think he fits this system real well, but obviously not everything working perfectly for the Vikings, uh, quite yet on offense for him to get the ball anyway.

31:54 But Aaron Jones has been touching the ball 20 plus times, I think two weeks in a row. So Uh, that's why I have him at plus 400. If you get four to one and a guy touching the ball that many times, I'm going to be all over it. And then my other one, just because the number is huge and I love this guy, Isaiah likely plus 1300 at Washington.

32:13 Who knows who is going to score first in this game? Very strange one, but a division rivalry game and Winston has been going to likely. So I was kind of afraid that when Jackson dart went down, I don't know what's going to happen here. Obviously neighbors is your main guy in New York, but Isaiah likely has continued to be the number two target here. So plus 1300, 13 to one, we really like those odds. So let's recap, Joe, you are going with, if I could scroll back up to it here, Daniel Jones, that's your second one. Um, the first one is Jalen hurts under six and a half rush attempts. You're going Daniel Jones under 31 and a half pass attempts. You are going JSN over 94.5 receiving yards. You are going Tyson Bajent over 10.5 rushing yards.

33:06 And then Woody Marks over 39.5. Is that rushing and receiving yards?

33:11 Rushing and receiving, yeah.

33:13 That's a great number. I thought you said rushing. That's a great number for rushing and receiving. That's a really good one. For me, I'm going Brock Purdy under 32.5 pass attempts. We are going to go with Jordan Love under... 33.5 pass attempts. That's it for my unders. We're going Nico Collins over 5.5 receptions against Tennessee. We're going Michael Wilson over 5.5 receptions against Detroit. And R.J. Harvey over 5.5 rush attempts at the Chargers. And then for our touchdown calls, Joe, you have Garrett Wilson, Stephon Diggs, Bo Nix scoring for any time touchdowns. I've got Nico Collins, Trey McBride, and Roman Wilson. And then first touchdowns, You've got Amandra and Justin Jefferson, and I have got Aaron

33:58 Jones and Isaiah Likely. Any other props that we missed here, Joe, that we didn't hit on the sheet that you want to throw out there? I know you like some defensive calls, but I don't know if they come out this early. Would you have anything there, anything extra to offer us?

34:13 Well, yeah, I'd look at the Denver Broncos in every single way. I'd look for that defensive touchdown. Look at what the Chargers did. are up against the only player on that offensive line. Basically that isn't a no name that no one knows is the backup center out there for the chargers.

34:29 The whole offensive line is decimated.

34:31 If you look at the Denver Broncos, Nick Benito, Zach Allen, for those anytime sacks, you look.

34:37 At the interception, the pick six, I'll be all over that on Sunday.

34:41 I love it. The self-deprecating chargers fan picking against her team. Hey, look, if they're not going to win for you, they can make you some money.

34:48 Exactly. And that's exactly how I feel on it.

34:50 Yeah, that's exactly how you should feel on it. But that is going to wrap things up for us today. Before we head out, make sure to like the video if you're watching on YouTube and make sure you're subscribed to the betting pros YouTube channel and podcast. So you don't miss out on any of the betting content across all the sports and betting pros tools as well for Joe Maddon. I am Scott Bogman. We will see you guys next time. Welsh and Erickson back next week. Take it easy, everybody. Thanks for listening to the betting pros podcast.

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