NFL Week 6 Preview: Bold Predictions, Upset Picks & Best Games to Watch! (Ep. 2269)

0:00 Game on. What's up, everybody? And welcome into the tailgate. I'm Chris Welsh. We've got Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice. Most importantly, we got week six of the NFL. We're breaking down some of the latest news. We are going to be making some predictions. We're going to be talking about some of the big games, a little bit of everything all around the tailgate. Hang with you guys. Thank you so much for hanging out with us as you do. Make sure you guys are subscribed to the YouTube channel. You don't want to miss any of the action. It's been a fantastic season. And it's great seeing you guys because I was not here last week. Most importantly, though, the superstar of this episode is our dear friend Pat Fitzmaurice,

0:36 whom just is coming off of a Smashing Pumpkins concert, which you're rocking. Can we see the shirt? Can you bring up the.

0:43 This is.

0:44 So, yeah, this is not a new shirt. I did not buy any merch because last night... Believe it or not, about half of the available merch was co-branded with Chicago Cubs logos because.

0:58 Billy Corgan is a giant Cubs fan.

1:01 Disgusting.

1:01 And as you know, I would get my.

1:04 Pinky toe cut off before I would wear a Cubs logo on anything.

1:07 And that leads to the second piece of gear. rocking this incredible Milwaukee Brewers hat who are one game away from going to the World Series. You're living your best life, Fitzy. Right now, you're living your best life. Smashing Pumpkins, Brewers are out there. I mean, Packers game this weekend. What more could you ask for?

1:25 A friend and I pre-gamed at a bar near the United Center before that show last night, and we had time to see one at-bat in that game before we headed over to the United Center, and it was a Jackson Churrio.

1:38 Solo home run to lead off the game. So that was a good omen, I think, for the rest of the night.

1:45 Erickson, you got to get up early in the morning to pregame with Fitzy. We've been on our trips before. I've tried to pregame with Fitzy, but Fitzy's already in the game. He's already in the second quarter. I can't do too much of the pregame. Erickson also is quite the gamer as well. What's up, buddy?

2:01 I'm happy to be back on the tailgate. I also was not here last week. It was Fitz Holden with, I believe, our friend Alfredo Brown. So I'm sure that they smashed their predictions. But yeah, I'm looking forward to week six jam packed matchups across the board.

2:15 Let's go.

2:17 Let's go. Speaking of let's go, I know you're going to get excited about this. We're going to jump into the news before we start talking about some of the games that matter most this weekend. And one of the biggest pieces of news that's floating out there, though, you know, some of the analysts want to go back and forth about it, but Erickson, your boy, A.J. Brown, designated to return from the IR, would be a huge piece for the Patriots. It's huge in that they found their ability to turn their game around, specifically Drake May. Drake May was becoming for many, not me, you know this, Erickson, every week I was calling for the bounce back, even though I was wrong like three weeks, but then, you know,

2:51 squirrel finds a nut at some point. Drake May... has kind of been able to right this ship, and then perfect timing, you're going to get A.J. Brown coming back in. The designated to return is a little bit dicey, though, because there was a lot of celebration, as I think there should be, but then there's a lot of cold water.

3:08 People want to be like, well, hey, listen, it doesn't necessarily mean he's back. What's your take on it? He was practicing on Wednesday. I thought he looked good. I feel like this is lining up, but there is the do we hold him back? Does he have some type of a snapshot? What's your take on the designate to return and what this is going to mean and what A.J.

3:26 Brown is going to be able to provide for the Patriots on this return?

3:29 My gut feeling is that he's not going to play this week. Just. If you had to ask me, that's what I would think. I think they want to be as cautious as they can be with a player that is not a spring chicken.

3:40 A.J.

3:40 Brown is an older wide receiver when the other guys have been stepping up around him. It'd be, I think, a bigger difference in need if the Patriots offense had looked like the first three weeks of the Patriots offense, the last two games. And it was, OK, no, we need A.J. Brown like now ASAP. I don't really feel that way, especially when they're facing the New York Jets.

3:59 So they're at home. They should take care of business. I think that the A.J. Brown boost could be useful more if he plays on that Thursday night game against the Chicago Bears. So on a short week, now you have A.J. Brown, who's a little bit more fresh, again, not having played on Sunday, getting a fresh body in there.

4:15 So I think that's how I would view it. Now, I'm not the doctor that's evaluating A.J.

4:20 Brown.

4:20 If they said, yeah, the ankle's good, you're good to go, then let's launch him. And I don't think we'd probably see him in a full time role. I think it would just be out there. Hey, get your feet wet because They obviously have a lot of guys that they can rotate in and the matchup against the Jets is not one to be feared. So obviously you don't want to take any divisional opponent lightly. I think that's how you get into trap games. And maybe this is kind of a trap game against the Jets. So that's one thing to note. But at the same time, it is Mike Vrabel. And I think that he is one of the better coaches on making sure that his team is locked and loaded in.

4:50 So I'm expecting them to roll here. We either if A.J. Brown doesn't suit up.

4:55 Yeah, that's kind of where I'm at a little bit. It feels a little trappy. They've already had their down spots. They're finding some momentum. The short week, though, is probably the most critical piece to why they could not play him fits. But I'm leaning that he's out there in some limited space because if you could get him comfortable, get him in a little bit of action, then you could maybe go full go on the Thursday game. But where are you at with A.J.

5:20 Brown?

5:20 And do you think this is going to be good for Drake May, even if they're only– putting a limited A.J. Brown out there.

5:28 I think I tend to agree with Erickson that they hold him out one more week. When we saw that injury, it was kind of the classic high ankle sprain. And by classic, I mean that as a euphemism for bad. And a high ankle sprain is basically a knee injury too. And four weeks, missing four games, four weeks is pretty much the bare minimum on those injuries. And it can go out to like six. And it's been four missed games.

5:56 And I feel like A.J. Brown is so important to that offense that why chance it when things are going well?

6:04 And I don't think they're going to.

6:05 Take a divisional foe lightly, but agreed with Erickson, they could probably use him more for that road game in Chicago next Thursday night. Hold him back a little bit rather than ask him to play two games in five days and have him fresh to go in week seven. So It would be great to see him out there again this week, maybe on a limited snap count, but I think they're going to probably hold him back. I'm anxious to get him back and see what the Drake May to A.J.

6:34 Brown connection can.

6:35 Look like because we got that taken away from us pretty early in the season, and hopefully we get still a long run out of made a Brown pitch and catch connections coming up here soon.

6:49 Especially that he's right. You know, that's my big thing. Like Drake may found his rhythm and that's what I'm looking for. And that's why I'd like to see AJ Brown, new team, new country. Marvin Harrison is we're told is going to be making his debut in London. Not sure. That's the greatest spot here.

7:06 Fitzy.

7:07 What do you think about Marvin Harrison with this new destination? C.J. Stroud, his buddy at quarterback in London. They say they're going to get him in featured. What are your expectations with seeing the debut of new Houston Texans, Marvin Harrison?

7:22 Low.

7:23 Guessing it's not a giant snap count because he's trying to process a new offense. But he has not played well this season. He hasn't separated. He's had trouble with contested catches. Nothing has looked good so far. If he's going to go somewhere and get a new ecosystem, I'm glad he gets to reunite with C.J.

7:43 Stroud.

7:44 Maybe that helps out. But things have just looked so bad, I do not expect a dramatic turnaround to his season.

7:51 Erickson, have you had any positive vibes around this move and him going to the Texans? I feel like the team is trying to be positive about it, but there's so many cooks in the kitchen. I think Stroud is going to force some stuff, but Stroud's not going to make him a better coach. route runner. He's not going to create better separation for him. Expectations to me are still low, but could London, could Marvin Harrison have his best game of the year, not in the US?

8:16 I don't think he would have his best game of the year because he did catch a touchdown already this season. And I think that's honestly what his best case scenario would be. They put him in the red zone, runs a fade route, Stroud gives him a 50-50 ball, and we'll see if he comes down with it. We know the Jaguars are a pass funnel defense, so the Texans are going to have to throw. So I think it makes sense that Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to be up and active in this game. I mean, anything to get Xavier Hutchinson off the field, like, please, I would rather have Marvin Harrison Jr. out there than Xavier Hutchinson, who just does a bunch of cardio and is not adding a ton of value. I do think it's interesting, though,

8:50 when Marvin Harrison Jr. first landed in Houston, he first talked about, yeah, so happy to be part of a great organization. I just thought that was really funny because it's like, Oh, really? So you didn't like the other team that you were drafted by as a great organization? And it's like, obviously, he'd say that about any team that we went to, but I just thought that was very interesting how he used those exact words. Like, yeah, it's nice to be part of a great organization with a quarterback that, trust me, like.

9:17 I think there's a bigger thing with Arizona, just to throw this out. Obviously, everybody knows about, like, I think it's the Juggs machine, you know, that they didn't get or whatever he wanted. But what's funny enough, there's actually a thing going on here in Arizona. There's this, like, content creator out here in Arizona that started a campaign with locals and they've got a bunch of money and they got a deal with the digital sign guys and they've got a sell the team campaign going on and they're trying to get it viral right now. And it's like, you know, bid wells, get rid of the team. Like they've completely turned on the Cardinals. It's actually one of those things where like Marvin Harrison doesn't necessarily leave Arizona

9:55 hated because he is lightly saying, Oh, great to be part of a great Oregon, Everybody else is looking around and they're like, this is an embarrassing organization. And you'll probably see something about it this week as it starts to pick up. I believe the signs are going active today as we're recording this, but. Sell the team and the bid wells and there's like 12 digital boards that are going up in Phoenix and we'll see if more is with it. You just made me think of that when you were talking about Marvin just being like, hey, good organization, like everything is turning in the wrong direction for the Cardinals. And can I just point out how freaking mad I am? With my amazing prediction, the Cardinals

10:29 had to win the first game of the year, and now they.

10:32 Look like an embarrassment. They're going to go 1-16?

10:35 Yeah, they're going to go 1-16. They're going to be so embarrassing, and I'm going to hold no cards to anybody because they won the first stupid game. And I was on here being like, they're going to not win a game. Could they have just won the last game of the season and let me have this for the year, dude?

10:50 Do you think they give Carson back an audition soon?

10:54 They said locally– again, I'm not an Arizona Cardinal fan, clearly, but I live here in Arizona. They said they're not going to consider it until the end of November. That's the word locally out here, that they are going to go– I think that means a little bit more November, probably closer to trade deadline. But they said mid to late November is– and that's from local media– is the first time they'll consider it. So yes, Beck will, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen for, I would say, at least three more weeks.

11:22 Last– Things I want to note about Marv before we go to the next topic. When you look at his body of work through two plus years in the NFL, a lot of his numbers look exactly on par with Roman Dunzay for the most part. Like just aggregate in terms of yards per route run, yards per target, touchdowns, et cetera. And obviously he's looked at as a much worse NFL producer than Roman Dunzay, I think. Not that I'd say Roman Dunzay has necessarily lit the world on fire.

11:50 I think that he's probably been disappointing too. I mean, of those top 10 picks, Malik neighbors is the only one that has lived up to his draft capital. In my opinion, I think that you guys would probably agree with that. I just think with Harrison, it really is just the expectations versus the reality. I think the reality is like, he actually hasn't been like this, like terrible wide receiver.

12:08 For two years.

12:09 But the fact that he was drafted top five and that he's Marvin Harrison Jr. son, and that he's put this like ungodly expectations on a rookie receiver going in the first round of fantasy drafts. Like that's why he feels like such a failure. When you just look at the numbers, it's like, well, like, I mean, he hasn't really been like so bad. I mean, does he have like, he almost caught what? Eight touchdowns as a rookie. Like, So that's why I'm leaving the light on him for him with Stroud. I mean, Stroud made Nico Collins, a guy who didn't do much for the first two years in his career. What happened to Nico Collins in year three?

12:41 Frigging exploded. So at least that's my kind.

12:44 Of final thoughts.

12:45 Erickson is setting the bar at better than Xavier Hutchinson, which is like setting the high jump bar at like.

12:51 Two feet, four inches.

12:51 Well, now I feel like the expectations have totally flipped.

12:54 Where now it's like, dude, if we got like, if he could just be better than Kayshaun Booty, it's a win.

13:00 Like, I mean, yeah.

13:02 But what's a real, like, okay, give me an example of a receiver that he becomes realistically that we're like, oh, this, like the Cardinals screwed up. This actually was a really good guy.

13:13 Amari Cooper. If he could become Amari Cooper, I think that would be.

13:18 That's interesting.

13:18 Because again, like, do we look back at Amari Cooper and think, oh, this guy was like elite? It's like, no, but he had a couple of good years and yeah.

13:26 Can he be T. Higgins to Jamar Chase for Nico Collins?

13:30 Is that a possibility?

13:32 I think T.

13:32 Higgins would put up even better numbers if he wasn't on the Bengals.

13:37 Let me ask you guys this. Who do you think has the better long-term outlook, Marvin Harrison Jr. or Jaden Higgins?

13:45 That's good.

13:46 Oh, man.

13:47 They love Higgins. I think it might be Higgins to what I think you're kind of alluding to.

13:53 Can I take Jalen Knoll?

13:54 I mean— Can I take the third door?

13:56 Tank Dell. I love Tank Dell. Also, Tank Dell's floating around there.

14:00 In August, Nico Collins was talking about Jaden Higgins having face-of-the-league type potential. So, I mean, I've got to think Higgins is the better outlook. Higgins has not failed yet. Marvin Harrison Jr.

14:15 Has basically failed.

14:17 So, is this the perfect time to buy Jaden Higgins in Dynasty? Is that what you're saying?

14:20 Ooh, this is a great time.

14:22 It might be, yeah.

14:23 Dynasty. We got a dynasty thing in there. All right, we'll see. Let's see what happens. Maybe we'll have a different tune. Maybe, you know, Houston will, he'll have maybe the humidity. Well, I guess he's in London. I would say the humidity would help him learn to cut routes, not the dry heat in Arizona, but dynasty.

14:36 Would you rather have Michael Wilson or Jaden Higgins?

14:41 I'm a Michael Wilson guy.

14:42 I'm just saying that's a trade you can get done. You can, you can flip Michael Wilson selling high and get Jaden Higgins. I'm asking because I have a team that's tanking right now, and I have Michael Wilson on the straight block.

14:53 I don't want to do that, but what about, yeah, Fitz, he's our dynasty guy.

14:57 I got to say Wilson just because, you know, a guy has an ACL tear.

15:02 I mean, got to hold that as a little bit of a strike against him.

15:05 A little bit. One last piece before we get into the games. According to Jordan Ronan over at ESPN, Giants head coach John Harbaugh hinted that the Giants have, quote, More in store for J.J. McCarthy packages. So here is my question, Fitzy, to this. Why? Why? Who who who's asking for this? Why would anybody want what are we talking about? J.J. McCarthy packages. What what is that going to do for anybody for him? I see that and I go gross. What about you, Fitzy?

15:41 You know they're going to play him at some point because you know there are three and four Jameis Winston interception games coming. That's just inevitable, and those kinds of games irritate coaches to no end. So I think McCarthy's going to play at some point, but maybe that's why they feel... compelled to start working him into games, knowing that they're probably eventually going to feel obligated to start him.

16:08 Isn't it very college-like? It's like the junior quarterback, and then they got the freshman in and like, we're going to give you a drive. Like, like it felt like this past week, Jameis threw a really bad, as he does, a really bad pick. And then I was like, oh God, here we go. And then they actually did the package, like they brought McCarthy on, I think for a play or whatever. And then, you know, Winston ended up going off, but I'm just not sure I understand outside of like from a college perspective, you're trying to make him happy. Like, is he going to learn on the job to create special?

16:37 To me, when I hear the special quarterback packages, like they're probably just run with him. Like, I just don't know where this is going to help the development outside of them just trying to be creative. I don't get it.

16:48 Yeah, neither do I.

16:49 I think Alfredo brought up a good point last on the tailgate that we did yesterday, the live stream. that they probably had a set of RPO run plays designed for Jackson Dart. And they tried using Winston in them in practice. And they're like, oh, this is not going to work. We don't want to throw all these great plays away. Like we spent so much time installing these. Like, let's come to JJ McCarthy, who kind of, you know, you're like, is that Jackson Dart? Kind of looks like because I remember rewatching that game being like, wait, which who's a quarterback right now? And like, what are these plays?

17:22 Because all he did was just get smashed on his two rushing attempts. That's the other thing that I'll get, right? You have a quarterback that's been hurt for multiple seasons, and he's running RPOs on design run plays. Like, that's his role.

17:33 Great idea.

17:35 I never really thought James McCarthy was like a Taysom Hill-esque type of player. Now, again, he can make some plays with his legs, but I don't know. Like, it seems kind of like a net negative to me, so I don't really get it either. But I think to Fitz's point, it's just, yeah, inevitably he is going to get there at some point. I mean, it just depends on how many games the Giants keep winning. So we'll see.

17:54 Who's starting games first, J.J. McCarthy or Carson Beck?

17:59 I would say I will go with Carson Beck.

18:02 I'll go with Beck also.

18:04 There's another rookie quarterback, but we'll talk about him just a little bit later. So those are some news to chew on here. Before we get into the big games and the games that matter the most, I want to tell you guys about Polymarket. It's a stock exchange for sports, buying in and selling out on your terms. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys who are giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10.

18:33 And now they've launched this cool new feature called Squads. It's a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. So go and download the Polymarket app today and use code FPPOD when you sign up. That's FPPOD to get $ 25 free after you deposit Just $ 10. Gentlemen, let's talk about a few of the games for this big weekend. First up, how about a nice little division game?

18:58 Baltimore and Cleveland. This definitely could be a game that would have maybe no eyes on it, but Cleveland has been sufficient. Lamar Jackson, maybe if he plays, maybe this makes this more of a route. If he doesn't, maybe this makes this an upset possibility. Baltimore is a five-point favorite. This actually moved. Almost two points on the line, over-unders 42.

19:20 Per Schefter, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, a realistic chance to play on Sunday. This is per league sources. Baltimore and Cleveland in this, like I said, surprisingly competitive matchup. Erickson, let's start with you. What are the keys for this game? What are you looking at, Baltimore versus Cleveland?

19:39 I think that the Browns are kind of being slept on a little bit here as the lone divisional underdog on this slate.

19:46 That matters a lot.

19:47 Like you cannot undervalue these types of spots especially when you either have a backup quarterback starting on the road in a hostile environment or a potentially compromised Lamar Jackson off this ankle injury we saw what happened last year when Lamar Jackson came back from his injury too quickly and it was a disaster so if I'm Jesse Minter I'm like this guy better be 150% ready to go because I am not risking going through what happened and cost basically John Harbaugh his job last year because of how bad Lamar was when he came back and never returned to form. The Ravens know that they can beat literally anybody if they have a fully healthy Lamar Jackson, and that's the most important thing here. So I think

20:25 this game is going to be a rock fight no matter what. These AFC North games, it seems like every single time these divisional underdogs always come out on top. I pulled this from the betting pro show, but Seven of the last eight games between AFC North teams have been won outright by the underdogs. The Browns 6-0 against the spread versus the AFC North at home. The Browns as an underdog at home, their last eight games, 7-1 against the spread. Like I get when you look at the X's and O's, you're thinking, okay, like the Browns like don't have a shot here. It does not matter when you just look at how these teams play each other.

20:58 So I know Deshaun Watson looked horrible last week, took eight sacks against the New York Jets. They're banged up all over the place. It's just a different environment when you go to the dog pound.

21:09 And also, if you've watched the Browns as a whole and not just singular games, you would know it is a competitive team. Concepcion and Boston, if Concepcion is going to be active on the concussion, brings this team in. Fannin wasn't involved. He would get back involved. They actually, if Deshaun Watson can avoid, you know, those fall over sacks, they've got kind of this complete offense and they've got a serviceable defense. So, Fitzy, I ask you, can the Browns win this game outright?

21:35 I think they can. Deshaun Watson has to be better than he was last week. And if not, the, the should do or Sanders watch is on because, uh, you.

21:46 Know, Watson had been playing.

21:48 I don't want to say well, but, uh, functionally for the Browns and make, making the offense go, making the pass catchers work, like letting people see how good Denzel Boston and Casey Concepcion are going to be.

22:03 And, making Harold Fannin work.

22:05 But last week, it just was bad against the Jets and didn't help that they botched a punt. The one thing I kind of agree with Erickson, I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens exercise caution with Derrick Henry. And one thing that might allow them to do, or excuse me, with Lamar Jackson, not Derrick Henry, I think they would use Derrick Henry a lot Because another key injury in this game, Browns linebacker Carson Schwessinger, a tackling machine, questionable with an ankle injury. I don't believe he was practicing as of Wednesday. If he is out, boy, stopping Derrick Henry is going to be a challenge for the Browns.

22:46 And you would imagine that if Lamar Jackson doesn't play, it's going to be a big dose of Derrick Henry. It's going to be a big dose of Derrick Henry either way in Cleveland. But I do give the Browns a chance because they are... A much scrappier team when they're at home. It just seems like offense goes to die in Cleveland and they can turn this game into a rock fight. And in a low scoring game, the underdog always has a better chance than if it's a shootout.

23:15 We'll also have to watch, though, Judkins banged up, Dylan Sampson designated to return, but him, Raheem Sampson, there's a lot of banged up guys in the backfield that could lead them to passing the ball a little bit more.

23:26 Well, Welsh, then they could just bust out the all-time leading college rusher, Julio McLaughlin.

23:32 Oh, baby.

23:33 As you do.

23:34 One of the many X factors in this game, Julio McLaughlin and Todd Munkin, right? That guy knows this Ravens personnel pretty, pretty well. Now, maybe that's more of like a revenge game for Derrick Henry because he didn't give Derrick Henry the ball enough times in the second half of the game. So Derrick Henry is going to make Todd Munkin pay potentially. But I do think that there is actual advantage with Munkin knowing about all these Ravens offensive players that he was the coach for the last two seasons.

24:03 And by the way, just in case anyone questions the all-time leading rusher thing for Julio McLaughlin, this is across all college divisions. Julian McLaughlin, of course, played at Notre Dame College of Ohio and Youngstown State and piled up more than 8000 rushing yards at those two places. I think he was over 2000 yards in both of his seasons at Notre Dame.

24:25 College of Ohio.

24:26 It's like those high school stats you see where you're like, did you know that he rushed for 5,000 yards and 34 touchdowns in eight games as a high school senior?

24:33 And you're like, what?

24:34 I can't wait to see that flashed up on the game broadcast. It's going to be Derrick Henry College yards versus Jaleel McLaughlin. You'd be like, you rushed for more yards.

24:41 It was Jaleel McLaughlin.

24:44 I love that.

24:44 All right.

24:45 Next game up, this is a potential battle of the undefeated to the defeated, where the Chargers- really, and I'm going to talk about this later, so I'm going to abstain from it, but the Chargers have an opportunity to be winless going into their bye week. Kansas City coming off of a bye. This line had actually opened up, by the way, just to point this out. It was like two and a half on an open line, and then it jetted up to eight. Kansas City's an eight-point favorite.

25:09 Not a lot of points necessarily projected here, and I think that ends up being about the Chargers and their deficient offense. So, Fitzy, what I'd ask you, Do the Chargers stand a chance? Is there any way we see signs of life? Because I think this is it. The Chiefs are probably going to be about Rishi Rice. They should probably run Ken Walker 30 times. So that's fine.

25:33 Do the Chargers show any signs of life that they can salvage this season? Or is this season going to be over and encapsulated from this game?

25:45 I think it's going to be over and encapsulated from this game. I just don't think the Chargers offense can work with the state of their offensive line. It doesn't sound like Joe Alt is going to play this week. They're talking about maybe him needing to see a neck specialist. The interior of the offensive line is bad. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is hurt again. And it just seems like, I don't know, Mike McDaniel is maybe.

26:11 The good coach's choice.

26:13 Can tailor players, or they tailor their scheme to the players. And I don't feel like Mike McDaniel has sort of done that. I feel like he's trying to fit square pegs into round holes in his scheme, and it's not working. And I kind of expect that this is going to be Mike McDaniel's last game. And that if things go poorly, and I expect them to against Steve Spagnuolo's defense with the Chiefs coming off a bye, an extra couple of days to prepare for one of the worst offenses in the league. I think, you know, I don't see Jim Harbaugh as the kind of guy who wouldn't hesitate to make someone else walk the plank for his team's terrible start.

27:00 So I kind of think this is it for Mike McDaniel. His swan song is the Chargers offensive coordinator.

27:06 Eric Erickson, he's going to pull McDaniel in the office. He's pull up his slacks, put a glass of milk down. Would you like a glass of milk and then just say, sorry, buddy, we're gonna have to move on and then just leave. That's that sounds like how that's going to go. Any signs of life, any chance, anything you've seen that this Chargers team can rebound? It looks like they'll have Vlad McConkie.

27:25 They don't know what they're doing. They're running game. Looks like a disaster. Will this be one more undefeated team and a winless team going into week seven, Erickson?

27:35 I think so.

27:36 I think that the spread kind of suggests that again, this isn't just a tough matchup for the chart.

27:41 I mean, it's the chiefs, right?

27:42 Like these are the top docs coming off a bi-week against a team that has been beaten through first five weeks of the season, dealing with more injuries. I think that you can draw some parallels between the chargers and Eagles this year and how dysfunctional and broken they looked on offense because under new offensive coordinators, installing new offenses, it's hard to do it when every single week you have less to work with, right? Like every single week you lose another office.

28:04 I'm using a receiver. Like, Dude, when Marquez Valdez scaling is your number one wide receiver.

28:10 Oh, and leading in snaps and stuff.

28:12 You got no shot.

28:12 What are we doing?

28:13 You got no shot.

28:13 So again, like obviously Mike McDaniel is largely to blame here, but Herbert has not played well. Losing all these guys to their injuries, like that's not going to help anybody. So I think offensively, Mike McDaniel, if he's reading the newspaper clippings about like, this is going to be your last game, then you got to go yellow here, dude.

28:31 like you got to pull out everything you got. So the thing, the plays that you say for the second half of the season, now you got to pull everything out. Now, if Ladd is out there, you got to pepper him with as many targets as humanly possible, because he is the only thing that has worked in this offense to this point. And it's been a very limited sample size because Lama Kong has obviously been banged up, but I would expect at least with Ladd, that's how they're going to at least move the football a little bit against the Chiefs. But I'm expecting more of an underwhelming game across the board. I think this is actually a pretty strong under Lama. If you look at Andy Reid, so I know that this is a really popular topic. We

29:05 talk about like the Chiefs off the bye week, Andy Reid. Oh my God, this guy is so good after the bye week 22 and four after a regular season bye week. So, I mean, the guy basically never loses. They did lose last year though. Interesting against the Denver Broncos after their bye week, but the actual better bet is three and 10 towards the over. after their bi-week. So it's not really the offense that really comes out firing. It's actually their defense actually plays pretty well. So I do think the charge can actually keep this a little bit closer because it's a divisional game. It's the last stand for a lot of these chargers pieces. And the one thing that has worked well for the chargers, the last couple

29:40 of weeks, the defense has actually played a lot better. Like everything is about their offense and how bad their offense is. And that's obviously putting the defense in tough spots, but they're right now 10th in pressure rate. If you look at what they've done against opposing offenses, Seattle went three for 12 on third downs, Denver, One for 12 on third downs against the Chargers defense the last two weeks.

30:00 So if their defense can play.

30:03 Is this going to be a circus survivor buster for you? Is this what you're trying to tell us?

30:08 I think it could be tight. I think this can be sweaty for those back in the Chiefs. But I mean, they're going to pull it out the end. Andy Reid after by always wins, doesn't always cover. But I think that this might actually be because I think right now the Chargers are. I mean, what's closer than backs against the wall? Like they are the wall.

30:24 At this point.

30:25 Like I, so again, it's a divisional game that these things are always played tighter than the X's and O's would always suggest. And again, I don't think the Chargers are going to win because it's going to be some offensive debacle that kills them in the fourth quarter, which has basically been what's hurt them the most. It's like these turnovers have been absolutely brutal. And I think that's ultimately what, uh, cost Mike McDaniel job here.

30:49 Points, points, and points. The next two games are built around points. Buffalo and the Raiders. It's got a line of 52.5. Buffalo, pretty heavy favorite, as they should.

31:01 Mr.

31:01 Fitzy, I ask you, where are you going with this game? Raiders have played up a little bit. As of recent, it's been kind of squirrely. Jenty looks like he is going to be good to go. Buffalo has been on a tear. Is this line correct? Is this a sneaky game, or is Buffalo going to run away with this? Almost a touchdown favorite on the road.

31:21 I think the line is correct. I do kind of expect Buffalo to take care of business. It just seems like things are coming together for them. Eventually, the defense has to catch up. Jim Leonard's defense has to play better if the Bills are going to go to the promised land. The one thing that maybe would have given me some hope for the Raiders in this game was that I know Spencer Brown, the right tackle for the bills has been dealing with, I think a back issue and, you know, right tackle going up against the Raiders. That's the person responsible for Max Crosby primarily. And a big problem if you don't have your starting right tackle going against Crosby, but it sounds like Spencer Brown is going

32:04 to be okay. He, he said it's a minor thing he expects to play and, So, yeah, I think the Bills handle the Raiders in this one.

32:14 And also, this is like one of those opportunities. I think the Raiders have just been competitive enough to just be seen not in a disastrous light. This does feel like a game that could maybe turn the tides.

32:25 I know.

32:26 Fitz, he's got a take on the quarterback situation that could be moving forward. This seems kind of like a pressure built game where maybe the season starts to turn in the opposite direction for the Raiders if they can't make this competitive.

32:38 Yeah, I know that we talked about the Raiders as a team that started out 3-0, obviously lost to the Chiefs, lost to the Patriots. And now it's like, OK, do they lose again? Right. And then like this hot start from the.

32:50 What a stretch, by the way.

32:51 Yeah.

32:52 The Raiders with this, oh, they're a contender. Like they're going to make a run, maybe make the playoffs. But then it's like, even though they played the Chiefs really tight, went toe to toe, they still lost. They did not look good against the Patriots playing on the road. Now back at home, it's another really tough draw. So how are the Raiders vibes feeling after starting out 3-0 and then dropping three straight games potentially? So I do think that this is going to be a fun matchup from an offensive explosion standpoint. I think that the Raiders secondary could potentially get eviscerated. I mean, there's no way we're going to get as bad of a passing performance two weeks in a row from Josh. I just can't see

33:25 that happening, especially if they get DJ Moore back, if they decide to remember that Dalton Kincaid actually does play for the team and maybe.

33:32 Actually feature him a little bit more.

33:34 It just blows my mind that like the passing game is struggling and then they just don't throw the ball, Dalton Kincaid.

33:40 Isn't it like, aren't those things kind of like correlated? Is it just, yeah, there's a correlate.

33:43 So to me, it's, it's pretty simple of like getting these players involved. And I will always get my popcorn ready for Josh Allen in a dome, right? We got that treat last week against the Rams, just an absolutely epic game. And we get it again. So I know that the bills are excited about their new stadium. It's not a dome, but I mean, if we got eight plus games of Josh Allen in a dome, like, it would be so much fun.

34:04 So dreams, what dreams are made of two more games here. And we're going to Fitzy's great weekend where the green Bay Packers are going to be hosting the Dallas Cowboys. And this line, I think it moved around a little bit. Green Bay is a one point home favorite. It's probably getting even toe around maybe an even marker, but I think it's one of the higher numbers of the week.

34:23 The totals at 53. So Fitzy, the question is, is what does this game look like for you? There's a ton of power offense, uh, Is there a defensive play in here? How do you think this Green Bay matchup against the Dallas Cowboys is going to play out?

34:39 Track meets, shootout at the OK Corral, really entertaining Sunday night game, lots of points. We just saw Jordan Love completely set the Chicago Bears defense ablaze last week, and now he gets the Dallas Cowboys... who rank dead last in DVOA against the past, dead last in EPA per play against the past. Their opponent passer rating is 120, which, to put that into perspective, the career Aaron Rodgers passer rating is 102. So, yeah, teams are just torching Dallas, and I would expect Jordan Love and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft to put on a show– against Dallas this week, but Dak Prescott has thrown 40 or more passes in three straight games. They are willing to go toe-to-toe and pass with anyone, and they're bringing

35:38 CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens to the party, and I thought I saw that Packers' best outside cornerback, Keyshawn Nixon, not practicing. Not a good thing when you're about to face George Pickens, so yeah, there are going to be points in this one. I would not be surprised if we saw a total like over 60, 65.

35:53 But is Christian Watson may be the best receiver we should be talking about in this. I know there's two, Erickson. There might be three first touchdowns this season. He is Mr. First Touchdown, Christian Watson. I'm betting it this week, and I'm putting it on the prop show. Christian Watson might be one of the biggest X factors because he has been so consistent. So I'm stoked about this game from the wide receiver matchup. But any takeaways for Dallas and Green Bay?

36:22 Yeah, this is one of the most... coolest matchups when you go to the wide receiver duos, right? I think that combined receiving yards, the two Packers receivers and the two Dallas receivers have the highest yardage totals among receivers on the same teams. So it's like these two dynamic duos going back and forth, track meet style. The Cowboys are obviously coming off that terrible Thursday night loss to rookie backup quarterback Jalen Daniels on Thursday night when they were eight and a half point favorites. And they just like frigging turd because that's just what the Dallas Cowboys do.

36:58 So I think this is a bounce back spot for them. But ultimately, it's going to come down to who has the ball last. Right. Because Dak Prescott knows he's got to put up 40. The last time we saw these teams play on Sunday night football last year, they scored 80 points in total. And we were robbed because it was a tie at 40 to 40, which just sucks.

37:18 But there's no way we can have two ties in back to back weeks.

37:20 Right.

37:21 That's that's impossible.

37:23 Of course not. Of course not. This is all overs, overs, overs, baby. Love it. Final game. We get to the hat here. San Francisco 49ers. My 49ers are hosting the Washington Commanders. The 49ers are without everybody, at least if you're a pass catcher. They'll have good old great matchup from a rating standpoint. Mike Evans really had that great established game last week. They don't have a lot of depth, but the players that they have out there, they get the work done. The commanders, to Jayden Daniels' credit, I really was kind of like a fade away. I just didn't know what this was going to look like. He was running for his life, and it was relatively successful. Are the commander, I mean, I'm biased. I'm a 49ers fan.

38:08 Sometimes I pick on them, though. I try to be a realist. Their defense, I still put questions on. I think people are giving a lot more credit to the defense than I do. But the 49ers look like one of the best teams in the NFL right now. Erickson, do you think the commanders can make this a competitive game?

38:24 Because I got to be honest with you, I'm not really sure that they're going to be able to do that. I mean, Stefan Diggs is active. I think that helps a little bit. Slot corner coverage is a tiny bit tougher, but... I just don't know if the Commanders are going to be able to make this that competitive of a game.

38:38 Seven and a half points. There's a hook on it. What do you think? What's your breakdown of the Commanders and the Niners?

38:42 It feels really easy to feel like Jay Daniels getting more than a touchdown. He's an elite quarterback. Oh yeah, this is an easy bet. Like they'll keep it close. But schematically speaking, this Fred Warner impact on this 49ers defense makes all the difference in the world. And we talked about this. I don't remember which week it was.

39:01 It was the Dolphins 49ers game. And you pointed out, Welsh, very astutely, dude, Fred Warner can erase quarterbacks in the run game.

39:09 Absolutely.

39:10 So the fact that Jayden Daniels has been so reliant on his legs because the offensive line is terrible. Both of his top receivers are dealing with hamstring injuries. I just think that we're not going to see a repeat performance from Jayden Daniels as a rusher because they're going to spy him with Fred Warner. And that's going to be what changes this game and makes the commander's offense inoperable.

39:30 and make it a really tough challenge for Dane Daniels on the road after that overtime tie against the New York Giants, when they totally flubbed the last play, when they just could have kicked the field, but they would have won the game. And look, I never want to be, you know, calling for cheering for guys to lose their jobs and things like that with Dan Quinn. I know that I've talked about that a lot of tailgate shows like, He was one of the guys I thought, hey, when we're looking at coaches who could potentially get fired, so I want to make sure that I'm being cognizant that I never want anyone to lose their job. Dan Quinn is a really good football coach, but he has not changed the defense the way that he should have, the

40:04 way that this roster has been built. Again, blaming Adam Peters a little bit. A lot of Band-Aid fixes, right? Not a lot of established players, young players that Jaden Daniels can rely on. So for me, I think that this is... A curb stomp waiting to happen. And I feel bad because I think this could be it for Dan Quinn just because of the optics of what happened last week. The defense has been terrible. Mike Sanders still is still one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL and teams know it. And they just keep continuing to target him again and again and again. So for me, I think, look, I usually don't like laying these massive numbers too with like heavy home favorites. But to me, if Jay Daniels isn't running or they're able to stop that,

40:43 I don't think this office is going to have any answers.

40:46 It's the biggest problem. The Niners are getting their pass rushers back, perceivably, and then the corners have been playing great. The defense is going to be stopping them whatsoever, and you can't get McLaurin. McLaurin deep, I actually think, is the scariest thing about this. It's going to be a rough day for Washington. Fitzy, what did you take 49ers on Monday Night Football?

41:05 Yeah, I mean, as much as I would like to concoct some horror story for you, Welsh, it's a letdown game for the 49ers after the big win over Seattle and everything. It's just Can the commanders, you would have to imagine morale in that locker room is pretty low after the fiasco at the end of the Giants game last week. And now you've got to go cross country to play the undefeated 49ers. It just seems like a, it does seem like a beat down spot.

41:36 Yeah.

41:37 I think I mentioned this on the live stream or maybe it was the, no, I think it was actually the waiver show we did, but AFL, all these major league minor league baseball players and this Royals player saw my 49er hat on and he just walked by on the field and he went bang, bang. And then we, you know, we were out there like the nine to the, the, the, the Niner gang is ready and rolling. And those are the big games to be watching for this weekend. We're going to make some calls and we're going to give you guys a thing to watch coming out. But if you want a chance to win one of the most unique pieces of NFL fan gear out there, the large NFL PA wall smack courtesy of our friends over at trophy smack.com. the number one destination for epic fantasy football hardware,

42:15 then this is your shot. Their oversized, officially licensed NFLPA wall smack are bold statement pieces that are perfect for your fan cave, office, or living room wall. It's not just decor. It's a way to rep your favorite players in style. To enter, all you've got to do is subscribe to the Tailgate YouTube channel. Do that right now.

42:32 Drop a comment below on any of our videos this month. And that's it. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel, so make sure to turn on notifications so you don't miss a chance to claim this epic prize. It's time to make a big call, my friends. Fitzy, you are going to kick it off here. And this is one that I alluded to a little bit earlier.

42:51 Your big week six call maybe has a big change in store around the NFL.

42:58 Yeah, Kirk Cousins is going to make his final start of the 2026 season on Sunday. And after the Buffalo Bills hand the Las Vegas Raiders their third straight loss, the Raiders are going to make the switch to number one overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza at quarterback.

43:15 That is a big, that's a big one. And it actually kills me too. Cause then a super Felix league, we had picked up Mendoza a couple of weeks ago and then had to drop him because it's like, well, they're not gonna make any change any time soon with cousins. And now you're on this potential Oh, and three run where you could see Mendoza. So that would be the big rookie or young quarterback that we'd be excited about.

43:35 Erickson week six draft. Big call. What do you got?

43:40 Browns beat the Ravens. I don't care if it's Tyler Huntley. I don't care if it's Lamar Jackson. Give me the divisional home underdog to win outright in the dog pound.

43:51 Do the dog.

43:51 What did they do? Like a dog thing?

43:53 They're like, I think my wife actually, when the Browns were playing the other night, she asked me, what is up with their uniforms? Like, what is a Brown? And I was like, I think it's named after the owner of Of the team. And then they just kind of embrace like dogs.

44:08 My favorite thing. I'm not going to go on a tangent because we're going to be quick here. But one of my favorite things in sports is just absolutely nonsensical connections like the Phoenix Suns. And then there's a gorilla for a mascot.

44:20 You know what I mean?

44:20 Like makes absolutely no sense. There's no connection to it whatsoever. And they're just like, hey, here's a color. And then we like dogs. I love non-connecting NFL mascots and stuff.

44:31 It's funny when the teams move and they don't change it, right? So like the Los Angeles Lakers, right? No, it doesn't make any sense because they were in a place that had lakes. They moved to LA and they just be like, well, this sounds cool. Let's just keep it. And then the other one was the Utah Jazz. Like- Makes literally no sense.

44:49 Yeah, I mean, New Orleans jazz.

44:51 Would have made more sense.

44:52 Right, well, that's where they were before.

44:53 That's what they were.

44:54 Yeah, and then they moved to Utah.

44:55 Oh, yeah. And it's like, let's just keep it.

44:57 I'm so smart, I didn't even realize that. So there you go. Yeah, it was. Utah, they're like, we like that. We don't have a culture through too much of it. Sorry, Utah. You probably were great. Beautiful.

45:05 I hear it's beautiful out there. Go Utes, baby.

45:07 Go Utes. The Utah mountains or whatever. But yeah, I love the weird connecty things. Mine, by the way, I'm going to go in. I'm not really sure that there's that many Panthers in Carolina for that connection, but- I am going to be rocking the Carolina Panthers as an upset over the Eagles. Eagles' offensive line is a disaster. Now, this is going to look stupid if Saquon Barkley and Devonta Smith are both going to be playing in this game.

45:30 But regardless, the Eagles are kind of a mess right now. Panthers are coming off of a bye. Tedaro McMillan, Jalen Coker, Bryce Young has been playing well. I think this is an opportunity for the Panthers to make a real big statement. So I am going to play out the Panthers upset over the Eagles. And boy, we're going to have something to talk about next week about the Eagles and their coaching and everything going on offensively.

45:54 All right.

45:54 One big thing now to watch for the week. Fitzy, what are you watching for week six?

45:59 How do the Bears respond to getting completely decked in Green Bay last week? Like, That was a tough loss for this franchise with Ben Johnson having talked a lot about the Green Bay Packers and how he feels about them and their rivalry and Matt LaFleur. And then he went up to Green Bay and got completely smoked. And that right after the death of Mike Ditka, too, you know, to have him die right before a Packers Bears rivalry game and have the Bears go out and perform like that.

46:30 And now they're getting a Falcons team that's been playing really well lately. Lost a tough one to Baltimore last week, but Atlanta, both offensively and defensively, has looked almost playoff caliber the last three weeks. And, you know, if Caleb comes back or if he doesn't, how do they respond to that egg they laid in Green Bay last week?

46:53 Erickson, what are you watching for Week 6?

46:57 Saints Giants, because anytime James Winston starts games, it's kind of must see TV. I think the funnest stat about last week's game was he attempted 54 passes and didn't throw an interception. It was the first time he ever had that many pass attempts. So clearly the chickens are going to come to roost here next week. So I think this could be a wild back and forth type of shootout game. And we might get James Winston not playing the rain for the first time in a month because the last three Giants games have all had weather play a role. So I did check the forecast. It's like 10% chance of rain. Please rain. Don't ruin this.

47:30 We want to see a shootout with Tyler shock and Jameis Winston, just like chucking the ball all over the field. So I think this game could be pretty fun.

47:38 The one I had, we already kind of talked about, I was going to say it's the, can Mike, can Mike McDaniel survive a go, you know, a completely winless run going into the bi-weekend. I don't think so. I'm going to kind of turn it because the charges are important to this, but mine is the losers are losers.

47:55 The losers keep losing. And this is going to open the floodgates. I think this is the week for the trade market. There's been a lot of talk. I think Schefter's talked about it, that there's a lot of trade chatter. The trade markets in the NFL are way bigger than they were in the past. There are teams, there are players like Josh Schwett has requested a trade kind of behind the scenes with the with the Cardinals. And, you know, there's a few situations like that happening. I think the losers continue to lose this weekend. And this will be the week that is going to make those changes happen.

48:25 Maybe the Bucks are going to make some trades. The Cardinals are clearly looking at some more trades. The Chargers could be looking at making some moves. I think the losing culture of week six is going to open the floodgates of trades into week seven. That's going to be my big call.

48:41 Any specific comment?

48:43 Oh, yeah.

48:44 Good.

48:45 Any specific player, Welsh, that you think will get dealt.

48:47 I mean, I think Sweat is guaranteed to be traded, but that's not like super exciting and super fun.

48:53 What about Khalil Mack for the Chargers?

48:55 Yeah, I think Khalil Mack is one. I think Jacoby Brissett. I think Jacoby Brissett is going to be one. A team that maybe is a fringy quarterback. I mean, if the Raiders didn't have Mendoza and they felt they could still be competitive, maybe that would have been one. But I think Jacoby Brissett would be one of those. Actually, you know what? Drop the comments below. Who are some players you guys think are going to get traded? What surprise player? I mean, Brian Thomas isn't in the loser category. range, but who could be traded? We want to hear from you guys. We also want to make sure that you guys are rocking with us. So if you're watching on YouTube, leave your favorite call, your favorite trades in the comments below.

49:29 Hit the like button and subscribe to Tailgate. You can win great stuff when you do so. If you're listening on the podcast, follow the show, leave a comment, and then give us a rate and review. We'd appreciate that. It helps More NFL fans find the show and lets the channel grow bigger. Find us YouTube, searching Tailgate NFL.

49:45 That is it, friends.

49:45 That's everything. If you guys are looking for more, by the way, Betting Pros podcast for the NFL bets, best bets of the week is going to be posted out there and the NFL prop show with Erickson and I.

49:55 We are back.

49:56 We were gone last week, but we'll have props for you. So make sure you check out everything we got going at Betting Pros.

50:01 Friends, that is it.

50:02 Hope you guys enjoy week six. We had a great tailgate with you and we'll do it again next week for Pat Fitzmaurice and Andrew Erickson. I'm Welsh. Go enjoy some games and we'll talk to you next time right here on the tailgate.

50:11 Peace.

50:21 Thank you.