Week 6 Fantasy Football Key Questions: Must-Start Sleepers, Injury Replacements & Tough Lineup Decisions (Ep. 2270)

0:00 Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmly, joined by Derek Brown and by Pat Fitzmaurice. We are here answering some week six key questions previewing the slate. Tough start to the slate, guys. Broncos 17, Seahawks 14 on Thursday Night Football in overtime. A really ugly looking game. I was busy and unable to watch the game. Fitz was busy and unable to watch the game. D-Bro, you did watch the game and you were talking a little before we started recording and It's basically lived up to our low expectations from the box score, it sounds like.

0:33 This was painful to watch, guys. And arguably, I'll just go ahead and toss this out there. This was collectively the worst quarterbacking play I've seen the entirety of the season from Sam Darnold and Bo Nix. Bo Nix is capsizing the entire Denver offense. Yes, I know J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey. got touchdowns to save their day. RJ Harvey has three targets on the first drive and then is a poof, not non-existent for the rest of the game.

0:58 And I guess my bigger overarching thing about this game is what in the heck is Flory the OC for Seattle doing? You'd swear looking at the box score of this game, Seattle was trailing like three to 30 for most of the game. Sam Darnold looks like crap. He's dancing around in the pocket. He's chucking interceptions. He cannot complete a pass. And yet, they throw the ball 51 freaking times in a game where they are down by 11 points for the entirety of it. I don't understand it.

1:31 I don't get it. But, I mean, really, this entire game, unless you got Jackson Smith and Jigba... Who are you happy with for their stat line? Nobody. Emmanuel Wilson doesn't do anything. They involve Bayless Jones Jr. I don't get it, man. I don't get it.

1:46 I mean, honestly, like just the Broncos running back Dobbins and Harvey both falling into the end zone feels like, okay, you'll just take that in a game like this. Fitz, is there a better encapsulation of how different the NFL is year to year than two of the final four teams from last year, including the defending Super Bowl champ being in a game like this just in week six the following year?

2:06 That's what I was thinking, too, that these are two of the teams that we thought were going to be on the short list for Super Bowl contention again this year.

2:15 And I still think Seattle is.

2:18 I still think Seattle is one of the four or five best teams in the league, and they'll probably right the ship offensively. But, yes, I did watch some of the game last night, probably saw about half the plays. I was obviously very engrossed by the game four of the National League Championship Series. flipped over enough to see what I was missing and wasn't sad that I was missing it.

2:42 No, you shouldn't have been.

2:43 It was god-awful, Fitz.

2:45 Were you having a good time watching that game? What happened there, Fitz, by the way? I didn't catch that either.

2:49 I was having a pretty good time.

2:52 Every time the Dodgers felt like every time they got a lead, it just evaporated quickly.

2:58 It was a fun time.

3:00 First World Series trip for the Brewers in 44 years. It's been, I think, approximately 7,000 regular season games for the Brewers between World Series trips. And I probably watched or listened to at least half of those games.

3:15 So, yeah, it's been a while.

3:19 Who knew you can't buy a World Series title?

3:23 Well, the Dodgers have maybe bought a few. That's awesome, though, Fitz. Congratulations on that, by the way. You know, you're your biggest Brewers fan, I know. um you're what like your early 40s the last time they made the world series that's absolutely no that's awesome i i was rooting for the brewers obviously in this series i will be rooting for them against either american league team so like you have my support here so also to sweep the dodgers like not just to win the series but to sweep them like pretty incredible so unexpected team of destiny stuff for sure We are all the brew crew here this morning.

3:55 Let's jump into the key questions for the week. Reminder for everybody, all of our weekly consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com slash rankings. Teams on by this week, we have four of them, the Lions, the Bengals, the Vikings, and the Dolphins. So a 5-0 team, two of the most fun offenses in football, and then also the Dolphins are not playing on the slate this week.

4:16 We have another London game, guys. The Jags are there for the second week in a row. They are hosting the Texans in an AFC South battle. Woody Marks is the new starting running back for the Texans with David Montgomery injured. Are you guys willing to start him in London against an excellent Jaguars run defense, Fitz?

4:33 Yes, because it's a 14-by week.

4:37 And I don't know who else is going to get backfield snaps for the Texans. Maybe Dare Agumbawale. Maybe they bring up Jawar Jordan from the practice squad. I'm not sure if that's happened yet. But it is a really tough matchup. Jaguars are number one in DVOA against the run. They're giving up 42 rushing yards per game to running backs, 2.5 yards per carry to running backs.

5:02 But I did find it interesting.

5:05 Jake Seeley dropped this note on a show we were doing earlier in the week that since the start of the 2025 season, Um, Woody Marks has the third best rushing day against the Jaguars with 63 yards last week and, or last year. And that was week 10. He did it on only 13 carries. And, uh, the, the guy with the best two rushing games against the Jaguars the last two years, Jonathan Taylor, 74 yards, 70 rushing yards, and he needed 21 carries in both of those games to get there.

5:38 So this is a really tough run defense and.

5:42 But Woody Marks does catch passes, and he is going to get probably 90% plus of the backfield touches for the Texans.

5:50 Debro, it's almost like the same question we asked in this slot a week ago with Will Shipley, different player, right? Will Shipley and Woody Marks, different experience that we've seen them getting starting opportunities, different offenses. But it is the second straight week that the key question for this game is essentially, hey, there is an injury, so there's a new starter in a backfield. They have to fly across the ocean and go face this Jags run defense. Last week, obviously, Shipley gets hurt himself, so it doesn't end up working out so well. Do you see it going better for Woody Marks here this week?

6:18 I see it going better for Woody Marks only because exactly what Fitzy kind of laid out there. Woody Marks is going to be the bell cow for the Houston Texans. He's going to play almost every freaking snap. And just based off of volume, I think we're going to be looking at, if everybody goes in the wayback machine, of a very Ramondre Stevenson-esque kind of week one stat line.

6:39 where he gets somewhere in the realm of like 15 to 18 opportunities, somewhere around like probably 70 total yards combined. And if he gets a touchdown based off the volume and the catches and what have you, he's probably still like a top 15 running back just based off of volume and being a bell cow. And the other thing that I'll throw out there, too, is that the difference between Shipley and Marks in this matchup, Marks on a per-touch basis has quietly been really freaking good, man. 12th in explosive run rate, 7th in missed tackle rate. Now, I'm not telling you that the Houston Texans offensive line, which is bottom five on almost every metric you look at, is going to open up a lot of holes. But

7:16 I think for Woody Marks, volume and just touchdown equity, because while the Jags are an elite run defense... they can be had through the air. They are, like, hemorrhaging a ton of yards. So I think Houston will be able to move the ball. So if Marks gets, like, two short, like, goal-line touchdowns or something like that, he could still, like, suck out a really good fantasy day here.

7:38 Where is he actually ranked? Sorry, I don't think I actually asked specifically.

7:42 I've got him at RB19, but somewhere in that mid-RB2 range. Like, I think you can make the case as high as, like, RB 15 ish somewhere on there, Patty.

7:52 When we got, yeah, we talked about this a little bit yesterday, Fitz, I think you were close to consensus, which is RB 20.

7:57 Yeah, I've got him RB 21, but I still have Jeremiah love in the rankings and it's increasingly looking like he might not play, which would bump up what he marks a spot.

8:07 So yeah, I'm pretty much right on line.

8:09 I just, Yeah, I agree with Debro's assessment, like probably a good 18 touches. And it's just a matter of like whether he gets that touchdown to make him a high end RB2 or doesn't.

8:19 And he's probably more of a low end RB2, high end RB3.

8:24 Agreed.

8:24 Let's get to the rest of the Sunday slate. Bears at Falcons. The Falcons had the NFL's best statistical rushing defense heading into week five. But the Ravens ran all over them, sort of exposing that rush defense a bit. In comes a Bears offense that has been one of the NFL's best at rushing the ball at times, certainly, but they are now dealing with some injuries in the running back room and likely to get Caleb Williams back in terms of the passing game. What do you expect from Chicago's ground game this week, D-Bro?

8:52 Not a ton of efficiency, but high volume. I think trying to ease Caleb back into this. Atlanta's pass rush is formidable, so trying to keep him in clean pockets and stuff. The I guess the other low-key thing is can Chicago kind of run through the air in this game? The Falcons have been very tough against running backs on the ground, but through the air, giving up the six most receiving fantasy points per game, the fifth most receptions to running backs. So DeAndre Swift not looking for a lot of efficiency on the ground, but if he catches four or five balls in this game, I also wouldn't be surprised either. So you can still get it done in fantasy. Fitz?

9:27 I don't know if it's the Falcons' run defense being really good. I think it's more about the Falcons' defense just being a pass funnel. Opponents are throwing on the Falcons on 67.6% of their offensive plays. That's the highest pass rate in the league that a defense has faced. And the Falcons are only seeing an average of 18 running back carries a game against them.

9:50 Third fewest in the league.

9:52 Only the Jaguars and Buccaneers are seeing fewer on a per game basis. Falcons run defense 11th in DVOA, 11th in EPA added per run, giving up 4.1 yards per carry to running backs. That's in line with the league average of 4.1. The Bears running game just hasn't really been as good as it was last year. They've actually got the eighth fewest rushing yards from running backs per game, but I still have a lot of faith in Ben Johnson's ability as a running game architect. So, yeah, I still have DeAndre Swift ranked RB12. That's right around consensus.

10:27 Should have the backfield to himself with Kyle Manonga. I expected to miss another game with Turf Toe, but Swift himself dealing with knee and hip issues.

10:35 That's not ideal.

10:36 I know Ben Johnson doesn't want to lean on one guy too hard, so we'll see some of Roshan Johnson, too, but I don't. think he's playable even in deep leagues i just don't think i agree very good.

10:49 Under 60 rushing yards in three of his last four games for deandre swift i mean 50 did mention that he's you know dealing with his own sort of uh banged up stuff right now um one of.

11:00 Those games also was when he fumbled away his opportunity yeah he got benched so that that also needs to.

11:05 Get thrown in there for context for sure um who do you guys think wins this game by the way bears falcons oh i i I don't think it was a tough question.

11:17 It is a tough question because I see, I see two paths to, can Caleb, does he knock off the rust? Does he play well? Does he fare well versus the pass rush? And does Bijan Robinson take over this game or not? Those are the two factors for this game. And we've seen Bijan take over games. So I really kind of struggle with this game. I, I, I will lean slightly in the direction of the bears, but this game is a fricking toss up for me.

11:45 The spread, I'm trying to pull it up here.

11:47 I think it's Bears by two and a half or three.

11:51 Right now, consensus on bettingpros.com is Bears minus one and a half.

11:54 Oh, it's dropped a little bit.

11:56 I think it got shorter here.

11:58 It's been flip-flopping with the quarterback news all week.

12:02 It feels like it should be a pick-em. I agree with that.

12:07 The Falcons very easily could be coming in on a three-game winning streak. They lost that game to the Ravens that they easily could have won.

12:15 They've been playing some good ball.

12:17 And I don't know where the Bears' morale is after getting thumped in Lane Bay. And, you know, I'm just going to say, like, Ben Johnson brought that on. And, I mean, Mark Schlereth, the former Broncos offensive lineman, was talking about this week, like, Ben Johnson doesn't have to block or tackle anyone. And, like, he kind of set his team up for, like, some physical punishment last week.

12:43 Like that was an angry Packers team. And where are they now? Like morale.

12:47 I think Caleb Williams coming back is going to help with morale, but it will be interesting to see how they respond after that game.

12:54 They had no Montez sweat too. So Michael Pennix, I know the ribs are a concern, but maybe he sees cleaner pockets.

13:00 So yeah.

13:01 Austin Booker is really good though. That's, that's one legit dude. The bears have on defense. Like he's their best defender right now.

13:07 Gervon Dexter, revenge narrative game here for it.

13:11 Here for it let's go to Ravens at Browns Zay Flowers once again got a ton of targets despite Lamar Jackson being out against the Falcons but his yards per reception was more than cut in half with Tyler Huntley on her center he's still a good start but if Lamar is out again which I'm expecting right now he hasn't practiced this week as of the time we're recording this and I think it's like it's been trending that way also I pointed this out on an earlier show but like The next three games for the Ravens after this are Bengals, Bills, Jags. So I would imagine they are hoping that they can maybe get through this Browns game without him and then have him fully ready for that gauntlet. Again, Flowers is still a good start, even

13:47 with Tyler Huntley, because of the volume he's going to get. But are you lowering expectations at all for Flowers if Lamar is out again after seeing how it played out in Week 5? The other note I want to throw out here, Fitz, is that Tyler Huntley has not had a completion of at least 25 air yards since the 2022 divisional round against Cincinnati. It has been a long time.

14:05 If you watch the games, this seems obvious, actually. He does not throw the ball deep. He does not push the ball at all. And, you know, by the way, he's thrown like almost 300 passes in that time frame. It's not like that's, you know, he's a backup and has barely done that.

14:18 That's a wild freaking set, by the way.

14:20 So, like, yeah, that's just not his game. He's really good at pretty much everything else, but he can't push the ball down the field or doesn't for whatever reason. So, Fitz, knowing that, is that, you know, shaping how you're ranking Zay Flowers this week, who in consensus is wide receiver 10th?

14:35 Wide receiver 10 is exactly where I will have him if it's Tyler Huntley. Right now, I've got him ranked as if Lamar is playing, and I've got him at wide receiver 4. He'll still be targeted heavily if it's Tyler Huntley, but there's less big play potential, much lower average depth of targets. Just the receptions won't be as impactful.

14:56 Debra?

14:58 So I have met wide receiver 8 right now, assuming Lamar plays. Lamar's out. I'll drop him to wide receiver 12. considering the scoring opportunity, the matchups and stuff, like I'll have like neighbors, Evans, Parker, Washington, probably Devante ahead of him. But I mean, this is all saying like, yes, Tyler Huntley lowers the ceiling and the floor for Zay Flowers.

15:18 It's a tough matchup. Like Cleveland's given up the 11th few shards per target and fantasy points per opportunity perimeter wide receivers. The other side of this coin that I have to throw in here for Zay Flowers is He is absolutely unequivocally amazing versus man coverage, and Cleveland's running it at the highest rate in the NFL at 48.7%.

15:38 Zay Flowers against man, sixth in yards per route run, fourth in yards per target per route run rate. He's top two in both separation and route win rate. Route win rate, he's only behind JSN. So can he overcome a tough matchup? Yes, but to your point, he's going to have to get a bevy of targets from Tyler Huntley to do so.

15:58 I'm curious to see. I mean, I would imagine that the Browns defense is going to be coached up pretty well by Todd Munkin, who's obviously the offensive guy, but who will come in and say, hey, I just coached these guys for the last few years. This is what Tyler Huntley can do and can't do. This is how we want to go up against Dave Flowers. So I'm curious to see how that pans out. It's obviously not a coach on the staff in Declan Doyle that Munkin went up against, worked with in Baltimore. So maybe some uncertainty there, but just as the players go, he will be very keenly aware of these guys limitations, particularly Tyler Huntley.

16:30 So I wonder if we see like a ton of pressing and just like the Browns refusing to let them get anything underneath.

16:36 So the other side of this game is too, is I think we're going to see one heaping dose of Derrick Henry because the Browns run defense is God awful. So to that point, can that, and I'm not saying Tyler Huntley is going to throw the ball deep, but if, if I were Declan Doyle, I would say we are going to run Derrick Henry into their defense consistently and set up play action, deep, deep shots down the field.

16:59 for zay flowers versus man coverage now whether that happens especially considering your stat worm remains to be seen but that's the way they should attack this like a massive dose of derrick henry get huntley on the move and some play action here and can they get zay flowers free especially considering how good he is versus man coverage it's possible.

17:18 Browns are also not going to have carson sweshen schwester it looks like probably their best run defender.

17:25 The other thing I will quickly say, not just Matthew Hibner, who has been like this.

17:31 Himner, by the way.

17:32 Himner, yeah.

17:34 He's not practicing on Friday. Rashad Bateman is wearing the red non-contact jersey on a Friday practice, too.

17:40 Oh, Jacoby Lane. Jacoby Lane.

17:41 I was going to say.

17:42 I'm excited about Lane.

17:43 Jacoby Lane routes, baby.

17:44 I'm actually pumped for Lane coming back. That'll be a fun one. I can't wait to see him with Lamar in the full game. Before we get to the next game, I need to tell you about this new prediction market called PolyMarket. It's a stock exchange for sports buying in and selling out on your terms. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money.

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18:17 That's FPPOD to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Next game up, guys, Titans at Colts. In this game, Carnell Tate and Josh Downs are ranked back-to-back in ECR. Which player do you guys like better? Debra, I'll start with you.

18:34 Both of these quarterbacks are so freaking bad. Jeez, I'm going to go with Josh Downs on this one, only because I buy a sliver, a sliver, Believe in Daniel Jones more than I do Cam Ward just considering. Downs has a really good matchup. Tennessee's given up the second most yards per target and fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers. So I'll lean on the matchup. Indy's been tougher against perimeter wide receivers. So I'll slightly lean in the direction of Josh Downs. But Lord, man, Daniel Jones is playing God awful. Cam Ward needs to be benched and hit the reset button. So I don't feel great about either of these guys, but I'll take Downs.

19:13 Where are they ranked for you, D-Bro?

19:14 Both of them.

19:17 They're the 23 and 24 in ECU.

19:21 Josh Downs, wide receiver 24, Cornell Tate, wide receiver 25.

19:25 Okay.

19:26 So similar spot, even though you don't really like them.

19:29 I mean, right now it's just bi-weeks and injuries. Totally.

19:33 What about you? Who do you like better out of these two?

19:36 So I'm basically with Debro and ECR on downs at wide receiver 24. I've got Cornell Tate wide receiver 33.

19:42 Yeah.

19:44 Cam Ward.

19:45 Cam Ward.

19:46 That's a problem. And just that the.

19:49 Colts are one of the biggest slot funnel defenses in the league. They're just getting destroyed by slot receivers. And we talked about this on the start sit show worm. When your outside cornerbacks are Sauce Gardner and Charverius Ward, and your slot corner is second year man Justin Wally, Like you're going at the slot guy. And according to our buddies at Fantasy Points Data, 64.6% of wide receiver production against the Colts has come from slot receivers. They are giving up 118 receiving yards per game to slot guys.

20:25 So I think it's a Wandale Robinson week more than a Carnell Tate week.

20:30 It's a good call.

20:31 And I know Downs hasn't been great the last couple of weeks, just three catches each of his last two games, 16 yards against the Commanders, 47 against the Steelers. But he did have 149 yards and 12 catches in weeks two and three. And his average depth of target is 11.1 yards, which is well above the norm for his career.

20:54 He's got close to a 30% air yard share, running a lot of routes, like an 85% route participation rate. I think Downs will get back on track soon. And the Titans have been giving it up to slot receivers a little bit. 17.4 PPR points per game to slot receivers. 12th most in the league. So yeah, I like Downs way more than Tate.

21:17 I like the Wando call too, because he's quietly been... I mean, for fantasy purposes, getting it done because he's gotten touchdowns and he's getting, like, the volume. But, yes, the Cam Ward of all of this kind of just stinks up this game. So does Daniel Jones.

21:31 D-Bro, you missed a good line yesterday on the show. My dog is named Wally, where Fitz said that, you know, my dog named Wally going up against Justin Wally. Like, my dog would win some of those routes the way Justin Wally has been playing.

21:42 Yeah, it would.

21:43 My mom enjoyed that dig for you as well, Fitz. It was a good one. Uh, let's go to jets at Patriots. How high are you guys ranking Ramondre Stevenson with Travion Henderson? Now we've, you know, obviously always talked about this as the split backfield that it is, but now that Henderson is going to miss some time in this particular week, how aggressively are you getting with Ramondre Stevenson?

22:04 Uh, I've got, and I was pulling up the practice reports cause I was surprised to see, uh, Travion Henderson had got in a limited practice. Now, again, I'm projecting him to be out this week. Uh, I've got Ramondre at RB 13, uh, If anybody wants to say they've got him higher, like RB11, RB12, I'm not really going to push back against that. The Jets' run defense has got awful. They've given him the 13th highest explosive run rate, ninth most yards before contact per attempt, and the sixth highest missed tackle rate. So I think we're going to get workhorse Ramondre in this game. Probably a little Corey Kiner, just spelling him every now and then on early downs.

22:43 But I like Ramondre a ton this week. And as I pull up the Patriots practice report, Henderson, two limited practices. So I'm guessing he's going to be out this week or very limited, but we'll see.

22:56 It's a good point. I have been operating as if he's going to be out because earlier in the week, I think it looked a little bit worse, but it is worth keeping an eye on for sure.

23:02 He's a quick healer worm per the social media streets. Quick healer. Wolverine, they say.

23:07 Fitz, where's Ramondre ranked for you?

23:10 That's the thing, though.

23:10 The limited practice can mean he's riding an exercise bike on the sideline during practice.

23:17 I mean, you don't have to tinfoil hat me with practice reports. I'm there with you on it. I saw Michael Pittman Jr. get a limited in on a scooter earlier this season. So, you know, it is what it is.

23:29 Yeah, I've got Ramondre running back 14.

23:31 I know I'm a little behind consensus, but of course, I'm like the one ranker who's got Bucky Irving ahead of him this week. It's just for me, the thing with Ramondre is that like you're not getting.

23:43 Any breakaway runs from him.

23:45 So you are counting on volume and he's probably going to get that volume this week. But he has been dealing with a knee issue. So maybe if there's any chance for the Patriots to take the foot off the gas. If they've got a lead late in the game, maybe we do see a little more Corey Kiner. But, I mean, I think there's a pretty good bet. Ramondre gets 15 to 20 touches and gives us something close to RB1 value.

24:10 I forget if I'm having a brain fart or not and actually said this. He's RB10 in ECR, in case I didn't say it. So that's where he's at in consensus.

24:17 Is he like above Chuba or Swift?

24:19 Yes, both. So the next two names after him are Swift and then Chuba, and then it's Ash and Jenty, then Bucky Irving, Braylon Allen, Emmanuel Wilson, who's just listed there, obviously already played. So those are the names immediately following Romandre.

24:32 I've got Swift, Chuba, and Jenty above Romandre this week, but I get it.

24:36 Yeah, the four guys you have named are all directly in front of Romandre for me. Okay.

24:41 Yeah, because you said you have them at 14, so just literally those four, dropping them. They're dropping Ramondre down past them. Let's go to Saints at Giants. Tyler Shuck was terrible in week five, but it was really only his first bad game since week 12 of last season. Are you guys expecting a bounce back against the Giants now that there's a face that Vikings pass rush fits?

25:03 Not necessarily.

25:04 I'm pretty worried about the loss of Kelvin Banks for him, the left tackle, who is out with a severe high ankle sprain, not coming back anytime soon. And Banks got hurt in the second half of the Saints' Week 2 win over the Ravens. Over the first two weeks of the season, Shuck was averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt.

25:24 Over the last three weeks with no Banks, 5.5 yards per pass attempt. But it was kind of hard to notice the drop-off in Weeks 3 and 4 because Shuck threw more than 40 passes in those two games, had 255 yards and four touchdowns against the.

25:37 Raiders, 286 and a touchdown against the Falcons.

25:43 But again, he threw a ton of passes in those games and then played the Vikings last week, and it was a complete disaster. But it's a big drop-off from Kelvin Banks, one of the best young tackles in the league, to Asim Richards, a former fifth-round draft pick of the Cowboys, who started something like four games in three NFL seasons before this year. And the Saints can't really run the ball, so defenses don't have to honor the Saints' running game and can pretty much live and nickel and dime all game.

26:14 So I've got Chuck ranked QB 14 and it's just really the prospect of heavy pass volume leading me to even have him ranked that high.

26:23 Debra.

26:24 I've got him higher at low end QB one, uh, QB 11 right now, only because of the passing volume. And to Fitzy's point, I'm not scared of the Giants' pass defense. The Banks stuff in the callout is absolutely real. The only way where I feel better about Tyler Shuck in this game, though, is also because the Giants had the fifth lowest pressure rate. So I think despite Banks, their pass rush hasn't lived up to, I guess, as good as the depth chart looks to this point this season. Now, maybe that happens this week versus the Saints' offensive line, but I think we're going to get, like Fitzy pointed out, the Saints can't run the ball. So if the pass rush, the pass rush doesn't get home, we know we're going

27:04 to get volume out of Tyler Shuck. And the defensive matchup is a lot easier than going against the freaking Vikings. So I think Tyler Shuck at low end QB one is probably right. Just based off the volume. But do I see the risk?

27:18 Absolutely. This game has the same spread as the Bears Falcons that we talked about earlier. It's minus one and a half for the Saints.

27:25 This game is a low key shootout, dude. That's what that, Both these defenses are god-awful.

27:30 Are you expecting a shootout, too, Fitz?

27:35 I don't know.

27:35 I don't know.

27:36 I'm not....

27:38 Give me the over.

27:41 But I don't really trust either offense in this game, either. Either quarterback.

27:46 Big game, Jameis, baby! Revenge there.

27:48 Right.

27:48 Winston could have a.

27:49 He could light the Saints' defense on fire, or he could throw four interceptions.

27:54 He could.

27:55 You just never know with him. The weird thing with the Saints.

27:59 Their pressure rate without Banks, Shuck has seen a lower pressure rate since the Banks injury, which is weird. But I think it's also kind of a function. I was going to.

28:10 Say, what is the top of the pro?

28:12 Yeah.

28:13 So, right.

28:14 The pressure rate doesn't really tell the tale. I didn't check the time to throw in the last couple of games. But I think it's just that the Saints running game has just completely fallen apart. And that's maybe why the Shuck efficiency has fallen off.

28:26 Yeah, I fully agree. I'm pulling up his time to throw. Wow. Actually, his time to throw is pretty high unless I'm missing. Oh, wow. Yeah. He's actually got 2.78, so he's holding on to the ball. Okay. Well, interesting.

28:46 Before we get to the next game, I want to take a moment to talk to everybody about quints. Every guy who doesn't think that much about fashion knows what it's like to find a great outfit that you can keep coming back to on repeat. For me this fall, that outfit includes my new quarter zip sweater from quints.

29:01 The quality you get with quints is so good. It's immediately noticeable just how comfortable and durable the material is. And of course it helps that it actually looks good too. Just this week, we finally got hit with some cold weather out here in Denver and Well, that's never fun. I was sneaky excited knowing it would be time to break out my favorite sweater again. In fact, I would be wearing the sweater right now on the show to show it off. If not for the fact that, true story, I wore it literally just last night on a date.

29:24 It looks good. It fits great. It goes with plenty of different types of pants. And frankly, it makes it easy for me to decide what to wear to impress my date. And she genuinely went out of her way to compliment the sweater without me even bringing it up. That's a very much a true story. It's a great sweater.

29:38 So Quinn's clothing, which by the way is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands, gets a big stamp of approval, not just from me, but also from my date last night. Find your next fall favorites at Quinn's. Download the Quinn's app for app exclusive offers or go to quinn's.com. Get free shipping on your order and 365 day returns now available in Canada and the UK too.

29:57 And when Quinn's asks where you heard about them, let them know it was fantasy pros. It's the best way to support the show. All right. Next game here. Panthers at Eagles guys. We have to talk about the quarterback situation here. Jalen hurts is going to miss this game, possibly more time with the superficial blood clot that he is dealing with. That was reported yesterday. So I'll kind of keep it simple here. D bro. What are your expectations for the Eagles offense with Tanner McKee starting a quarterback?

30:24 I think they're still going to be able to move the ball. And I'm not telling you that's going to be the same as Jalen hurts, but, I think that considering this matchup, like I'm not scared of the Panthers defense, like losing J.C. Horn and Michael Jackson has been massive since losing those two over the last two games. Seventh most yards per attempt, 14th highest passing success rate, eighth most EPA per dropback allowed. So I'm not expecting like a banner like performance from Tanner McKee, but we have seen performance. competence from him in two nfl starts of the last two seasons i think that he's a mid-range qb2 and could actually surprise people considering how bad the panthers past defense has been.

31:01 Long term if hertz misses more time like so you're somewhat optimistic about where would you kind of fall in for you season if hertz is out for a while we just don't know I.

31:13 Mean, I'm treating this– so my medical background, I'm treating this as like Jalen Hurts is out for the rest of the season, and if he comes back at any point, then I will be surprised. I've got Tanner McKee. I would put him in at QB 24, like somewhere in that like Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett, Aaron Rodgers kind of tier.

31:38 So low-end QB 2 with the ability, if the matchup is right, to– be a high end QB to maybe, you know, suck out a few touchdowns and some QB one weeks. So I'm, I'm fine with him. Like if you pick them up in super flex leagues and stuff like that, like, I think he's probably going to be the starting quarterback maybe for the rest of the season.

31:54 We'll see.

31:55 Fitz, what do you think about both Tanner McKee, but then also the other options in this Eagles offense, Devante Smith, I think is practicing today. I just saw a tweet about it and, you know, need more info there, obviously.

32:04 Yeah.

32:05 It's just what it's looked like recently, but yeah. What do you, what do you expect out of this offense?

32:11 Way less than Debro does.

32:13 I mean, I think it's going to be a post-apocalyptic wasteland. How do you really feel? I know the Panthers' defense isn't a world-beater, but the Eagles had 232 yards against the Jaguars last week with Jalen Hurts. The offensive line is just... the old Philly offensive line is just gone. This has gone from being maybe the best offensive line in the league to one of the worst.

32:45 And, um, you know, hopefully.

32:47 They get Devante Smith back because they're so short on explosive weapons right now.

32:53 And they got Goddard back last week. And I agree.

32:56 Tanner McKee isn't terrible, but man, the offensive line is bad. And then there's no running game. I mean, it's, it's journeyman Damien Pierce at running back.

33:05 So it's, they don't have.

33:07 A credible threat to keep the Panthers defense honest in this game. I think it's going to be really bad. And I think they're going to get booed by their home crowd.

33:18 It hasn't looked good this season. Then, you know, you go to the backup quarterback. So I totally can understand the pessimism fits.

33:26 I mean, I know Eagles fans are not quick to boo anyone.

33:30 No, no, no.

33:32 Why would that? No, no. Not like they booed their own Super Bowl MVP quarterback at times, many times.

33:38 Is there anybody that you are ranking as a starter this week? Like Dallas Goddard at tight end?

33:47 Not really. Not really.

33:48 No.

33:48 Okay. All right.

33:51 So very pessimistic. I believe his phrase was apocalyptic wasteland. Post-apocalyptic wasteland. Oh, yeah. It's after the apocalypse has happened. Wow.

34:00 Okay.

34:01 Uh, one more game in the early slate guys, Steelers at Buccaneers. Jalen Warren has been terrific lately. And Debro said on a show earlier this week with myself and Erickson that he thinks Jalen Warren is the most underrated running back in the NFL. And I struggled to disagree with him. I thought it was a great, great shout by Debro. How will he do against the Buccaneers this week? Debro, I'll let you start here first since you love Warren.

34:23 I think he'll be fine. Um, because if, if you, if you just look at the surface stats for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, uh, it looks like a God awful matchup, but when you pop over in the hood and you look at actually how the Pittsburgh Steelers run game operates, they're 57.1% zone. Jalen Warren has been absolutely just mind blowing, like on zone runs, 5.67 yards per carry, 57.5% Russian success rate. Tampa Bay is elite versus gap runs. They're allowing 2.8 yards per carry and a 34% Russian success rate.

34:57 That's second best in the league versus zone runs. They are only league average. They're 17th in zone yards per carry, 19th in Russian success rate. So I think on paper, the matchup looks horrible for Jalen Warren. When you look at the deeper analytics, I think it's totally fine. I look at it as a little bit below league average type of matchup for Jalen Warren this week. So considering volume, I think he keeps maybe not a true bell cow workload, but I think he's going to play like 70% of the snaps this week. And with that type of volume, as good as he is, he's still a locked in RB1 for me.

35:33 He's inside the top 10. Obviously, anybody with him is starting him. Fitz, where are your expectations at, generally speaking, for Warren this week?

35:39 Pretty good.

35:40 I've got him ranked right on consensus RB1 range, and I agree with Debro. Warren is wildly underrated among running backs with at least 20 carries. Warren is third in rushing success rate, fifth in rushing yards over expected per carry, seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt, tenth in yards after contact per.

35:59 Attempt, according to Fantasy Points data. And then In the.

36:03 Passing game, he's averaging 8.8 yards per target, which is good even for a wide receiver. That's a freakishly high number for a running back. So he's been awesome. The Steelers offensive line has been doing some good work. So, yeah, Buccaneers have a good run, D, but it's strength against strength. And go ahead.

36:21 No, I was going to ask, Warren, can I give the spiel that I gave on the tailgate? Of course. Speaking of which, because I want Fitzy to hear all these stats because they blew my mind when I looked them up per Fantasy Points data. This is the case for Jalen Warren is the runaway, runaway, most underrated running back in the NFL. So since 2022, amongst 76 qualifying rushers with at least 200 carries, Jalen Warren, 15th in explosive run rate, right ahead of Kenneth Walker, 11th in yards of contact per attempt, right ahead of Derrick Henry and Bajon Robinson, 6th in missed tackles forced, right ahead of freaking Nick Chubb. You look at him as a receiver, Fitzy, amongst 78 qualifying running backs, eighth in yards per route

37:06 run ahead of Gibbs, Austin Eckler, and Alvin Kamara, and fifth in first downs per route run right ahead of Devon Achan. That is some rarefied air, man.

37:16 Yeah, I'm not.

37:19 I'm not trying to victory lap, but I did think it was nuts that some people liked Rico Dowdle more than Jalen Warren.

37:25 Before the draft. And now Mike McCarthy.

37:29 So Rico could come back this week from his double toe dislocation, which sounds really painful. But Mike McCarthy has basically said, yeah, Jalen Warren's the man.

37:39 Yeah. Do you, Fitz, agree with Debra's stance of most underrated running back in the NFL? I couldn't think of a lot of good other options, honestly. All the other running backs that I think are better, I think everybody just knows and agrees are studs. I was trying to think of anybody that I thought was.

37:52 Truly more underrated.

37:53 He's also outside the top 25 in average contract value. Outside the top 25. Like, he's living in the same area code as Rico Dowdle and Kenny Gainwell, just to put people out there.

38:03 You know, I'll call it a tie between Jalen Warren and Bucky Irving.

38:09 Oh, Bucky guy.

38:10 It's a pull. It's a pull.

38:12 Let's go to the late afternoon slate here. Cardinals at Rams. Biggest spread of the week. I think it's at 12 and a half. That's what it was the last time I checked. Tyler Higby has been tight in 12 or better in three straight games since Terrence Ferguson was hurt. Yet he's only ranked as tight in 15 this week.

38:26 I'll double check to see if that's moved at all. Again, that's where he was the last time I looked. He is tight in 16. He's gone down.

38:33 Oh, my goodness.

38:33 That's ridiculous.

38:35 So I'll ask you guys. Is that too high, too low, or just right, D-Bro?

38:39 I don't know. That that's absolutely Tyler Higbee is a tight end one this week. I've got to be tight in nine. I just, you look at the Ram scoring potential. You look at the massive spread. You look at the implied team total. You look at what Tyler Higbee has been doing over the last few weeks. He's been a tight end one in each of the last three games.

38:57 If you just want to take out like the Kai Bosch, Terrace Ferguson game, like Tyler Higbee over the last two weeks, tight end 12, tight end 10, again, Arizona has been one of the best matchups for fantasy tight ends of the last few seasons. This year, they're giving up the most yards per target at the position and the third most fantasy points per opportunity. Yeah, Tyler Higby's a tight end one this week. Great play.

39:20 Fitz, tight end 16, too high, too low, just right.

39:24 I've got him tight end 12, but I might be moving him up.

39:28 So I was too low on Higby last week.

39:30 Because Colby Parkinson came back after missing week four with a shoulder injury. I thought Higby and Parkinson might chop up the tight end targets for the Rams. Well, Higby had five catches for 83 yards on six targets. Parkinson, one catch for seven yards on two targets. They both played about the same number of snaps, but now parkinson is questionable for week six apparently the shoulder is still bothering him so yeah higby's a great play this week and i'll be up at like around tight end nine where debro is if parkinson is scratched.

40:00 Some of the names ahead of him mark andrews is ahead of him there's no chance hell no colson loveland who's done nothing this year no quarterback back but pat fryer muth like you know those are the three names directly ahead of him i think he should be ahead of all three and then ahead of that you're getting like strange fan and juan johnson territory i mean Fitz, you're not very high on Dallas Goddard this week. Like, there's just a lot of names that I feel like you could easily make the case for Higby ahead of.

40:23 And just to balance out my little victory lap on Jalen Warren over Rico Dowdle, I was kind of high on Mark Andrews this year, and he looks like a corpse this year.

40:32 I was kind of high on him as well, thinking.

40:35 You know.

40:36 Say flowers, Pitt.

40:37 Say flowers, Pitt.

40:39 What does Zay Flowers actually add on touchdowns right now? We should update that bet sometime soon on the tailgate. Maybe we'll do that next week and kind of see where we're at there. It's not going well for me, regardless of how many touchdowns Zay has, given the Mark Andrews side of that. Quick note for everybody. Fantasy Pros users can now get 30 days of Betting Pros Premium absolutely free. Unlock powerful NFL betting tools, including the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, Prize Picks Optimizer, and the brand new Parlay Wizard. You can even sync your sportsbooks to track all your bets live in one place. Start your exclusive three-day free trial in the betting pros app or at bettingpros.com slash apps with code FP one month. That's bettingpros.com

41:18 slash apps and promo code FP one month.

41:22 All right.

41:23 Chargers at chiefs with her. She rice banged up and you know, I want to kind of check the update on the injury stuff. I don't know if you guys had seen anything here about his status, but Has been banged up, obviously. Where should Xavier Worthy be ranked, Fitz?

41:37 Well, I don't think Rasheed Rice is going to play because when you come off a bye and are not practicing on a Wednesday or a Thursday, like there's just no chance that you're playing when you're not ready to practice after a week off. So I have Worthy wide receiver 27, and that feels too high because Worthy has been bad this year. Six yards per target, 1.16 yards per route run.

42:00 That's an awful number.

42:03 But Worthy has had at least six targets in three of the Chiefs' first four games. And with no Rasheed Rice, no Tyquan Thornton, it's not hard to imagine Worthy getting eight to ten targets. And those targets aren't just coming from some jabroni quarterback. Those are Patrick Mahomes' targets.

42:21 Rasheed Rice, by the way, on the AreTheyPlaying2OnFantasyPros. com, 2% chance. So the site certainly agrees with you guys. And I obviously agree as well. um he's wide receiver 29 in ecr so similar to where you've got him fits given the opportunity ahead of him here against his chargers defense debra what do you think where's he ranked for you with rice likely out.

42:41 I've got him at wide receiver 37 like i see the case for him like with the matchup and stuff like because the chargers are giving up the eighth most yards per target fourth most fantasy points per opportunity perimeter wide receivers i just lean on that worthy has just been god awful like he's I mean, dude, he's just, I, I, I were, my worry with him is he stays in the same kind of role. And then we see like a breakout game from like Jalen Royals or Cyrus Allen or Travis Kelsey just gets a crap ton of volume or Kenneth Walker just runs the entire game down their throat.

43:17 And then the chiefs kind of turtle. So like, I don't want to play worthy. I want to be very clear about that. Could he pop off with a random big game? It's possible, but, I just I'm at the point with Xavier Worthy of like we've opportunity after opportunity after opportunity. And he just wet farts most of the time.

43:33 So like it's like I just I don't want to play him.

43:36 That's what I was going to ask you deeper. So I expect Travis Kelsey and Xavier Worthy to be the non running back target leaders for the Chiefs this week.

43:44 But if there was.

43:45 Going to be another wide receiver to surprise us with their involvement this week, who do you think it would be?

43:51 I kind of lean with Jalen Royals over Cyrus Allen, but coming out of the bye week, have they changed things? Cyrus Allen could be the guy. Maybe he's the first chief to come out with training camp hype and actually do something in the regular season. But I think we're kind of firing in the dark here. It could be neither.

44:09 I do give a small lean to Cyrus Allen.

44:13 Or you said Royals. Did you say Royals or Allen? I thought you said Royals.

44:19 Small lean to well so.

44:23 Uh i i thought royals just because he was sort of the incumbent like cyrus we thought was going to have some sort of role and like he's been kind of you know yeah.

44:32 So the more that i kind of simmer on this i will go with jaywin royals only because if we see somebody get put into the rishi rice role i think that's more likely jaywin royals than cyrus allen but it's a mess dude it's a mess.

44:45 Fits you mentioned him earlier wandell robinson him or worthy this week.

44:50 I got to go Worthy, actually.

44:53 Worthy's ahead in ECR.

44:57 Worthy can make your fantasy quota with one play. Wando really can't.

45:03 Yeah.

45:05 One more.

45:05 Debro, you were kind of low relative to consensus on Jeremy Bernard when we did this live stream yesterday. Him or Worthy for you?

45:13 I got Worthy barely ahead of him. I'm low on Jeremy this week.

45:17 Okay.

45:19 Uh next game here last one in the late afternoon slate bills at raiders brock bowers is a stud at least 20 ppr points in every game so far this season so let's have some fun here fits predict which week will be his first bad game of the season because i don't know when it's.

45:34 Coming okay i'll uh i'll say it's week seven next week dang it that's that's exactly when i'm at Because it's when Fernando Mendoza makes his first starts for the Raiders at home against the Rams and needs a week to get the bugs out. Because I think, I think the Raiders are going to make the move after they lose their third straight this week against Buffalo.

45:58 Interesting. I like that wrinkle to the call. I mean, I mean, by the way, if it's just like, obviously you missed the first two games with the injury. If not for that, I think you would have been spot on with all of your predictions on Bowers this season. I think we did a show where you said he was going to, uh, have more yards, catches and touchdowns in Aminra St. Brown. I think it was one of your, these were bold predictions, but it was one of your bold predictions. I believe you picked him as the player that would define the fantasy season. And, uh, he is really breaking fantasy right now, just at the tight end position.

46:28 It's really incredible how good he is with not even like an elite quarterback cousins have been playing.

46:33 Okay.

46:33 But like, you know, not even like an elite quarterback that is attached to it. So this is just really awesome stuff from, um, From your favorite guy, D-Bro, you said that that was also your pick week seven. So you guys are both expecting just one more good week here and then a bit of a drop-off.

46:46 So it's not the Mendoza thing for me. It comes down to the matchup. Brock Bowers has been playing 38% out wide, 43.9% in the slot. So he's really just a wide receiver, 82.2% of his routes either in the slot or out wide. And however you dice up that matchup, you want to look at, okay, the Rams versus tight ends, fewest yards per target, fewest fantasy points per opportunity. You want to treat Brock Bowers as a wide receiver, seventh lowest yards per target to opposing wide receivers. I'm not saying that Trent McDuffie wouldn't have a hard day considering Brock Bowers towers over him by like seven inches, but maybe could get some McDuffie if he's in the slot or out wide, or maybe he could get bracketed. So

47:29 I think it's the Rams.

47:32 Uh, If we were redrafting the season today, like just for you're in a fantasy league that starts at week six, where is he? I mean, he's a first-round pick. Where is he going, Fitz?

47:42 Yeah, he's late first.

47:44 Late first. He's not going outside the top 15 players, probably.

47:47 Do you think he'll be a late first-round pick in consensus next year?

47:50 I think it's going to be back to where we were with the Travis Kelsey dilemma of whether to draft him in the first round because of the positional advantage he gives you. It's just so– he's so– far head and shoulders above everyone else. And McBride's good, but I just, the McBride thing isn't going to last though. Like they have been now for almost a season and a half averaging about 40 pass attempts a game.

48:15 And it's just kind of unsustainable.

48:18 I just don't think the Cardinals offense is going to continue to operate that way. And like, they're not winning games, throwing 40 passes a week.

48:26 My only pushback about the McBride stuff is if Arizona gets a competent quarterback next year and they stay with the high pass rate. But to Fitzy's point, again, I'm still saying he's top 15. It just could be the difference maker if people are still in on McBride, whether he's first round or top of second.

48:44 Let's go to a really fun matchup on Sunday Night Football. The total is as high as 53.5 in some places. Cowboys at Packers. With such a high number, struggling defenses, good offenses, Debro, is there anybody that you're actually fading in this game relative to consensus?

49:01 So fading in air quotes, I'm lower than ECR and will probably remain that way on George Pickens. I said last week and I said for multiple weeks, like the game against the Buccaneers and single high was the sell high moment for George Pickens. His splits versus a single high and two high have been massive. They they're still there right now. Like, and Jonathan Gannon, we know is going to run a crap ton of two high rec right now. Packers are running it at the fifth highest rate, almost 63 other percent of the defensive snaps. George Pickens this season is, has gone back to Pittsburgh type of George Pickens a la DK Metcalf type of usage. Big splits in single high and two high versus two high this year. George Pickens, his target per route run rate

49:47 drops to 15% and his yards per route run drop to 1.59. So Pickens, again, I still think he is considering all the buys and injuries and what have you, a wide receiver two, but high end wide receiver two is kind of where I differ from ECR. I'm going to push him down just a little bit.

50:04 Fitz, before you give your answer, where are you ranking Pickens this week?

50:08 Where do you have him, D-Bro?

50:10 Wide receiver, 17.

50:12 Okay, I think I'm a little higher. Wide receiver, 15. Yeah, 15. He's 13 in ECR. Okay. Okay. Yeah, I do.

50:21 I do want to be a little lower because of the schematic matchup, although the Packers, I think, might have to play without Keyshawn Nixon, who, as much as he has been a lightning rod for criticism from Packers fans, has actually been playing pretty well this year. So he's been their best outside corner, and if Pickens doesn't have to go against him, that might help the case for Pickens.

50:42 But for me, the guy I'm below consensus on in this game is Marshawn Lloyd. I'm like three spots below consensus. I've got him at the very bottom of running back two range. He did have the two touchdowns last week and has three on the season. But Marshawn Lloyd has not had even a 40-yard rushing day this year. And last week, he split work with Pierre Strong. Early in the season, he split work with Caleb Johnson, who's now kind of demoted to running back three, but is still in the mix. And Lloyd is averaging 2.8 yards per carry.

51:13 He's averaging 1.32 yards after contact per carries. Expected points added per rushing attempt sits at minus.

51:22 31.

51:23 He's just been bad, and the Packers' offensive line isn't good.

51:28 It's improved.

51:29 Signing Laken Tomlinson, Mekhi Becton, Kevin Zeitler, that all helped, but it's still not a good offensive line. Definitely not run blocking, so I'm not that enthusiastic about Lloyd.

51:41 Do you worry about him, Lloyd?

51:44 I'm with Fitzy. I got him at the bottom. I want to ask a very point-of-question. Fitzy, Blake Corum or Marshawn Lloyd this week? I think it's interesting.

51:54 You know, I've got Lloyd just ahead based on volume, but that might be.

51:59 The wrong call.

51:59 I know.

52:00 It's Corum.

52:01 The rankings are pretty far apart. They're 11 spots apart in ECR, but man, Corum.

52:06 For me, it's two spots.

52:08 Corum in a game where the Rams are almost two touchdown favorites is.

52:12 I've got Corum right behind Lloyd. I've got RB22 and RB23 right now. I'm considering flipping them.

52:19 Corum is actually catching passes too now. That's the exciting thing.

52:23 He was a non-factor in the passing game last year. They're actually starting to get him some targets.

52:28 The gap is too wide. I don't know if you can rank Corum ahead of Lloyd, but RB19 versus RB30. Corum should be higher than RB30 with the matchup against them.

52:38 For me, Corum is RB24 and I've got Lloyd RB22.

52:42 Yeah, that's, I think, more aligned with what I would be thinking, too, than what consensus has.

52:47 And I see easy paths for Blake Gorham outscoring him this week.

52:50 Like, yep.

52:52 We do a prop bet cheat sheet check-in for Sunday Night Football every week. You guys are going to offer up a three- or four-star bet from the prop bet cheat sheet at BettingPros.com. Debra, what do you have for us for this game?

53:02 Tucker Craft, over 49.5 receiving yards, three-star bet per the prop bet cheat sheet. Tucker Kraft's really come alive in the passing attack over the last two games. 19.7% target share, 25.5% first read share. Dallas is not good at defending tight ends. Six most yards per target allowed at the position, so I like the over here.

53:22 Fitz, what's your prop bet cheat sheet pick?

53:25 It's Javante Williams under 70.5 rushing yards. That is a three-star bet, and I think this is a game where both— passing attacks go head to head and there's not a lot of running. I think both teams pass at a high rate this week and the Packers run defense aside from that Thursday night game where they got decimated by Bijan Robinson has not been bad at all this year.

53:49 And so, you know, Javante Bijan is a different type of guy. Javante does not move like Bijan moves. So I don't think Javante is a big day on the ground.

53:58 Those were our top prop bets for Sunday Night Football, courtesy of the Betting Pros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. Find the best NFL player prop bets with the Betting Pros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. Quickly compare lines from leading sportsbooks against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value. Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props. All right, guys, Monday Night Football, Commanders at 49ers. Fred Warner seems like the linebacker most perfectly suited to slowing down a running quarterback like Jayden Daniels, who is coming off of a massive day on the ground.

54:28 Is Jaden's ECR of QB 7 too high, too low, or just right with this matchup against Fred Warner and the Niners' defense fits?

54:36 Too high.

54:37 I've got him QB 11, and you lay out that perfectly, Worm. Fred Warner is the best spy on running quarterbacks in the league. Malik Willis in Week 1 had 39 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Raiders, and then he played the 49ers in Week 2 and had 6 rushing yards. The 49ers have only given up 33 rushing yards to quarterbacks through five games. Quarterbacks do not run against Fred Warner and the 49ers. So, yeah, I think we should lower the expectations for Daniels. The thing is, Daniels is a good passer, too, so that's why I still have him ranked as a QB1, but I'm not expecting him to have another 100-yard rushing day like he had last week.

55:21 The guys behind him directly in ECR, Caleb Williams, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, are those guys all ahead of him for you?

55:27 Yeah.

55:28 Yeah.

55:29 Uh, Debro, what do you think? Too high, too low, just right. QB seven.

55:32 It's too high. Um, and to the point, uh, Fitzy made. So since 2025 San Francisco against running quarterbacks are given at the third lowest yards per carry and the lowest explosive run rate opposing quarterbacks. So yeah, I've got Jane Daniels at QB 12 right now. Um, and if we get word that Caleb Williams is going to start, I'll push him over him. I'm, kind of considering CJ Stroud over Daniels too. I'm with Fitzy. I think it's a down game from Daniels who really got all of his production on the ground with over a hundred and two, and then two rushing scores last week. He wasn't good as a passer and this is not a good matchup through the air.

56:13 It's time for fresh from the oven takes brought to you by DiGiorno, just like a pizza fresh out of the oven. These takes are hot, fresh and ready for Monday night. D bro. What's your bold prediction for this game?

56:25 So going bold with this, I'm going to say considering the week Rashad White is an RB2 and this is garbage time stuff. This comes down like he has to get all of his production in the passing game. I think that like as a median play, he is a very strong PPR flex. But if he gets in the end zone, gets the checkdowns this week, he is an RB2 when it's all said and done, had a 60% snap rate. quietly the 49ers have allowed the most receptions to running backs and the second most receiving fantasy points per game to the position. I, what do you, what do you think about that?

56:59 That call there fits for Rashad white.

57:03 Yeah.

57:03 He played more than I thought he was going to last week.

57:07 Um, we'll see.

57:09 It's just, that is a messy backfield all of a sudden cause Austin Eckler's in the mix too. So I'm not sure what to make of that backfield. I'm, I'm, uh, Bravo to Debro for planting a flag there, but I don't know what to make of the Washington running back situation right now.

57:26 The other thing, and I'm pulling this up to make sure I'm not talking out of turn here, but Austin Eckler also on the injury report, he was wearing a non-contact jersey, limited with a chest injury right now. So maybe we see him kind of, you know, his playing time cut this week too.

57:41 Fitz, what's your bold prediction for this matchup?

57:44 Yeah, related to what we were just talking about with the Fred Warner effect. on rushing quarterback. So a week after running for more than a hundred yards and two touchdowns, Jane Daniels will run for fewer than 25 yards against the 49ers this week.

57:59 That kind of lines up well with my bold prediction here, Fitz. And again, trying to be bold, I think the Niners are going to win this game by three touchdowns. I think they're going to smash the Commanders in this one, and I think it will be Dan Quinn's last game coaching the Commanders.

58:13 Yeah, you have to wonder where their morale is after the way they lost, or the way they tied that game to the Giants.

58:20 Immoral loss, but yes, tie in the standings.

58:22 And then just kind of bad timing, that's when you have to make a coast-to-coast trip to play your next game.

58:28 It just doesn't seem like... Morale is going to be very high.

58:31 I don't want to come on here. We're doing kind of a fun segment here for DiGiorno. I don't want to be overly negative, so I'm just kind of throwing in the Dan Quinn. I think it's his last game. The main bold prediction here is that I think the Niners win by three touchdowns. I think they're a much better team than the Commanders and specifically well-suited to slow down Jaden Daniels and the morale stuff coming off of that tie. I don't see how the Commanders are making this one a game, and I think it gets away from them.

58:55 There would be some cosmic irony that Adam Peters would get fired after a game against the 49ers. Just saying.

59:00 That's a good point. Those are your Fresh from the Oven takes brought to you by DiGiorno. Make Monday night pizza night with fresh from your oven taste. It's not delivery.

59:09 It's DiGiorno.

59:10 Guys, we'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Best of luck, everybody, setting those week six lineups for Fitz and D-Bro. I'm Ryan Warmly. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.