NFL Week 7 Best Bets: Top Player Props & Anytime TD Picks (Ep. 2290)

0:01 What's up, friendos, and welcome into Betting Pros. This is the Week 7 Top Props. I'm Chris Welsh. That is The Undertaker, Andrew Erickson. We have got 10 props for you, a bunch of touchdowns, a little bit of first touchdowns, and everything in between as we take a look at the betting slate for Week 7. Not thinking about the betting slate of Week 6, Mr. Andrew Erickson. We didn't have a great week. It was our worst week we've had, uh, in a little, little bit. It was a bad week. Uh, we acknowledge it. It, it hurts. I think you single-handedly had maybe the worst bet you've ever put on here.

0:39 I had multiple bets missed by Parker Washington, 10 targets. He caught four, uh, Deshaun Watson needed under 28.5 rushing yards. Guess what he finished with 29. And, uh, You single-handedly, you just threw Cam's Cataboo out there. Like, that was scam Cataboo, Mr. Erickson.

1:00 Scam Cataboo, yes. We got scam Cataboo'd last week. All-time worst prop I think I've ever given out since becoming part of Betting Pros. Probably my entire life just giving out any type of props, picks, etc.

1:15 so.

1:16 And we're not off to a great start here in week seven. A.J. Brown, A.J. Bum, as he was on Thursday night football. Not a lot of receiving yards for him. So not feeling super, super great. But, hey, we have a whole new slate on Sunday. A little bit of Monday action. And, hey, National Tight Ends Day. Anything can happen because we've got tight ends on the card this week.

1:38 So we know that these coaches love getting these tight ends involved. George Kittle, you know, he's going to have a big monster game, all of these tight ends. So we're looking to rebound, bounce back, and, I mean, nowhere to go but up, just like Cam Scataboo's touches.

1:50 Scam. Scam Cataboo. All right, so what it was last week. You're better than me. I was 1-4. That's horrifically bad. You were 2-3. We were both under. 500. I hit the touchdown, though, and you did not hit a touchdown. So you had a zero-touchdown call, negative ROI. I had a positive ROI because I had the one-touchdown call. Here's a fun fact on your tight ends, by the way.

2:12 I don't even know how this is possible, but we both only have two touchdown calls on the year, which is also incredible. But all our touchdown calls have been tight ends. I just want to throw that out. Every correct touchdown call has been a tight end so far. So we'll have to be dealing with that. So two touchdown calls correctly on both sides. We're both like slightly under ROI for the year on the touchdown calls because of that. We're essentially about like a unit under. No first touchdown calls. Bad week on the season. You are still doing good on the season, though. 15-10. I am 11-14.

2:46 Last week really killed me. So we have got to turn the slate. One good thing about this before we jump into our props. We officially are going into a Jameer Gibbs rollover week. If you haven't been following along, we have five weeks under our belt of every single week betting the touchdown, anytime touchdown from Jameer Gibbs. Then taking those winnings and rolling that over next week and next week and the following week. So I think you might have mentioned it last week, but going into this week, the Lions going up against the Packers meant to be a high scoring. I think the total is 53 and a half. What were we at again? Like four or five units? It's somewhere around that. What was that marker?

3:25 Was it like, was it five or was it like four.

3:27 And a half? It's like four and a half units. Okay. is where we're at with the Jameer Gibbs. And the fact that he's talking about wanting to break the Dane Lee and Tomlinson's record, this is very good for those that have been tailing this approach throughout the first five weeks, six weeks of the season, because this is now just not a Jameer Gibbs goal. This is now becoming a team goal where they enter the fourth quarter and they're looking around being like, wait, has Gibbs scored a touchdown yet?

3:52 Oh no, we need to get Gibbs' touchdown so that he breaks the record, which I believe is 32 total touchdowns. by the Damien Thompson. Now, obviously Gibbs has an extra game to get it done. So, uh, but yeah, I mean, that's when we pull back, right? He's like, well, we broke the record. Now we gotta, now we gotta cash out.

4:08 Well, I mean, you're sitting at four and a half and it's going to be like minus 200, something this way. I didn't even look.

4:13 It's, it's usually between, I've seen it as juiced up as 400. And then sometimes you get it, get a value at 300 or 275 or something along those lines. Again, you can also boost it. Sometimes you get that opportunity, but, Usually those are also capped too.

4:28 So I mean, the four and a half units potentially can move to seven, maybe max, like probably more like six units. And then we're really going to be talking. So let's hope he scores. We continue the Jameer Gibbs touchdown rollover five weeks of it by week. Last week, we step back into it. So we step into a better week. We step into some Jameer Gibbs touchdowns and hopefully we can step into some banked prop. So let's jump into it. We've got five props a piece, 10 total.

4:56 Then we'll talk about some touchdowns. Erickson, why don't you kick us off with your first prop for week seven?

5:03 Going with Kyron Williams over 60 and a half rushing yards. I really wanted to attack this slate with Kyron Williams. I think there's like a little bit of a not squeaky wheel, but hey, I'm really good. Give me the ball type of wheel narrative going with Kyron Williams, who was kind of vocal after not seeing the ball enough times in the Rams loss to the Arizona Cardinals, where Rams offense thought kind of looked out of sync, erratic.

5:26 And when they asked Kyron after the game, like, you know, why couldn't the offense get rhythm? He's like, Well, I'm not out there, so that's one of the issues. Like, I'm not getting the rock, I'm not getting the ball. So, we know Sean McVay and Kyron, like, that Kyron is his guy. He always takes care of him. There were reports this offseason that they had meetings about getting him more involved in the passing game, which has been very apparent throughout the season. Like, he is putting up career highs in terms of his receiving usage. And you have a Rams offense that's banged up, right? Looking for answers.

5:54 Devonta Adams is not going to play. Pukunukua left practice on Thursday with a calf injury, so TBD on whether he's going to play in this game or not. But regardless, I think that means we're going to see more of Kyron Williams in a really juicy matchup against the Raiders, who are allowing the second most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. 114 rushing yards allowed per game.

6:15 So originally, I was willing to go to the rushing attempts for Kyron Williams. He'd gone over 14 half carries in three of his last four games. But I just think it's just going to be, I'm going to attack the rushing yardage here, not mess around with any type of split he has with Blake Corum. I just think that he has an opportunity to really produce against a bad Raiders run defense. And if you look at last year in the three games he played without Devante Adams in the lineup, he had 23 carries in the first game that Devante Adams missed. The yardage in those three games, 70 yards, 92 yards, and 60 yards. So I'm feeling pretty good. I took the over on his attempts too, but for the sake of the show, I figured I'm

6:56 I felt most comfortable about the props and the profit cheat sheet also gave this the highest star rating versus the rushing attempts, especially because the rushing attempts also moved. It was at 13 and a half. And I looked at it earlier, moved up to 14 and a half. So didn't like that as much just because, Hey, we're trying to get the best numbers here. So 60 and a half rushing yards was the one that I liked the most. And if you look at the rent running backs, the Raiders have faced 95 yards, James Cook, Stevenson, 64, Ken Walker, 177, HN 57, 94 to O'Marion Hampton. all overs for the last five running backs that they've played.

7:29 Love it. All right. I am going with some low hanging fruit, but this was one that Erickson texts me about after he saw it on the sheet. And I thought it was really funny because it was like, you're like, I want it. This needed to be on the sheet. And if you didn't do it, you were going to force me to do it. And I was like, well, why didn't you put it on here? But this, this doesn't have a lot of data back to it because this guy hasn't played in two years. We are like, absolutely hammering the over on a tank Dell receiving yard prop.

7:58 This is not his longest reception prop, by the way, this is his receiving yards. 8.5 over. And he hasn't played in two years, but he has been a favorite target of CJ Stroud four years. And the, the, you know, Betty pros, the cheat sheet, it doesn't really have like a big support for it. It's around eight, I don't think anything or anybody really knows what to do with it. But, you know, if you do go and stare at game logs, like when he has been active prior to this, which again, the landscape is so different. Nico has taken over. They've got Marv, you know, they've got Noel, but he's never gone under this prop at 8.5 yards when he's active.

8:38 His longest reception, he has never had a longest reception under eight. Nine is actually the absolute lowest. So this is the peak bottom. And I'll tell you this, I don't expect him to play a full snap share. I think they're also robust with wide receivers. But what I do expect is when he is out there, it is going to be in a design where Stroud is going to be looking for him. And that even if it is a singular catch, I think you and I might have joked about this, that there might be like, oh, what do you think the one catch prop was? And I think I had said, it's going to be two. Like, no, they're not going to give you a 0.5 over. They're going to give you a 1.5 and it'll be heavily juiced.

9:15 That is exactly what's happening. But one catch... He's going to go over this. So it's a little bit low hanging fruit here. But Tank Dell, if back, expectation is back. Even if it's low snap count, CJ Stroud is going to find him in stride. for an over 8.5 receiving for a catch. And I'll tell you the one, my one dumb prop that did hit last week was my very first prop I dropped on here. And this is kind of my level of confidence. So you just want to throw anything else in because you put a little LFG next to this. You text me about it. Like, why didn't you have the cojones to lock this in here?

9:48 Why were you so glad that I did it?

9:50 Well, because you were the one, because you've been the tank Dell guy for the most part, whether it's on the fantasy pro shows, And I want to see him succeed so you can be happy. And I do have a couple of thoughts. and a couple of nuggets. I wanted to list, because this is definitely a squad ride with tank Dell, because when tank Dell's back on the field, we all win. Let's be honest, right? Everyone wants to see this guy succeed after what he did and coming back from this devastating, I mean, multiple injuries that he had, you know, the broken fibula and then the knee injury.

10:18 just absolutely devastating missing all of last year for him to come back and be like, dude, I'm just excited to be on the field again. Right? Like that's what he's been saying is press conferences. So a couple of points about Dell. So I know you mentioned basically how he's never really been under nine and a half receiving yards.

10:32 So over his first two seasons in the NFL, He generated explosive reception 15 or more yards on 5.3% of his routes run. That was 17th highest among receivers with at least 500 routes run. Over that span, he recorded over 1,000 receiving yards on downfield receptions, 10 plus air yards. That was 28th most during that span. The coach speak. Again, shout out Greg Brandes from the coach speak index. This is what D'Amico Ryan said about Tank Dell and kind of what will the play workload be like. It's a feel as we get into the game. There's no expectation.

11:06 Like Tank has to hit a certain play number. For me, getting Tank back out there after missing two years of football is the main thing. Him just going out there playing ball. I don't care how many reps he gets. I'll have my Tank Dell jersey on on Sunday. This is the head coach who underneath his Texans gear is going to be wearing a Tank Dell jersey.

11:24 You're telling me first Snappy's not out there. They're not looking to get him the ball 15 deep.

11:28 Dude. And then the last point, and this actually shouts out one of the tools on the betting pros site, um, our sharp money tool, uh, sharps are backing tanked out over at half a reception at months, one 86. So that's based on the, the, um, the prediction market liquidity, 2.5 K. That's what the prediction markets are just suggesting that people are backing the tank Dell over again. We like the over, especially him to keep, we're going to know he's going to catch all these one pass, feel pretty confident about that. So if you can find that number out there, even if it's, heavy juice i know underdog looks like has it listed at minus 179 but i think yeah dude i think he's gonna catch pass and it's gonna be over.

12:08 10 yeah we're in we're locked um if you want to play the the duel uh you are gonna it's like plus 170 range that you're seeing in a lot of spots uh if you want to play the two receptions if you want to live in that world but 8.5 9.5 i mean those are the numbers you're looking at we are officially locked in here at.

12:29 8.5 but.

12:30 I would just give you guys a suggestion that you can go over to betting pros and you can check out the prop analyzer. And it's going to show you where all of the odds are on every single spot for these props. So if you want to play the reception yards, you can go in, you can scroll through and you can see. I actually see you want your best.

12:50 I gotta be honest with you. I should be able to lock this in. There's a 6.5. I see a 6.5 on this bad boy. I see a 7.5 and an 8.5. We'll play at 8.5. Tank Dell, you go do that. Receiving yards over is the play. And not just the analyzer is going to help you out, but the prop cheat sheet. So you can find the best NFL player prop bets with the betting pros prop cheat sheet.

13:11 Quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections to undercover the props offering the most value. Make smart prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props. That's bettingpros.com slash props. All right, Erickson, number two for you for the week.

13:30 What do you got? This one's a five-star bet courtesy of the betting pros profit cheat sheet. Kyler Murray under 30 and a half pass attempts. Past attempts prop did not work out last week with Michael Penix, although I feel like the process was sound and he really just got there in the fourth quarter when they just start slinging the ball because the Bears play a lot of bully ball. So I feel confident going back to the past attempts. This has usually been really profitable with the prop and cheat sheet. Colin Murray's only gone over this number one time in his three starts so far this season where he has played the full game. He's a mobile quarterback who likes to scramble. So that automatically takes

14:03 out some of the passing attempts for his season or for the for the game. Only one quarterback this year has attempted more than 31 passes against the Colts. And that was in the Chiefs Patrick Mahomes game when that went into overtime. So took extra innings for a quarterback to really go heavily above 31 pass attempts. And you look at the Colts defense, their 32nd EPA per rush face this season. So I don't know exactly how the Vikings will attack the Colts defensively. I just know however they do it, it's going to be really efficiently because the Colts defense has just been bad. like a bottom five defense overall, whether you look at it from a run standpoint or whether you look at it from a pass standpoint, I think the Vikings kind of pick and

14:42 choose how they want to attack it. And the fact that they're getting their running backs healthy, Jordan Mason is coming back from injured reserve. They have Aaron Jones. I think maybe they do lean on the ground game a little bit here and not force Kyler Murray to drop back 31 times, especially when I don't think the Colts off, it's going to generate that much against Brian Flores' defense.

14:58 So Minnesota has been bottom eight in pass rate and pass rate over expectations so far this season. If you look at the pass attempts against the Colts, Cam Moore, 22. Rodgers, 31. Marcus Mariota got hurt in that game, so Stroud, 27. Mahomes, 47 is the big one that stands out, but even like Lamar Jackson at 25, so I like the under here.

15:17 Alright, I am going to be playing another over, and I'm going to Trey Tucker. Corner boy, Trey Tucker going up against the Rams, which is a tougher matchup. This is 40.5 on the receiving yards. This is right at projections on betting pros, so there's not really like a heavy lean they can give us, so there's no big star graded out rating, but I'm going to be taking the over, which he has hit in five straight games. Also, I love this tool on betting pros. You can check out the comparable players versus the Rams. Cause I mean, Ram secondary is pretty strong. That's there's not a big plus as far as like grading out that this is going to work in favor for. But what I do expect is I expect the Rams are going to be

15:54 out for blood. And I expect, you know, I'd say I expect, but like if Puka Takua is out, maybe this is going to be a different game. But if the Rams are running with the lead on this, three straight loss Raiders team, and they're reeling a little bit, they are going to be passing. And Brock Bowers is going to have a lot of coverage towards him. But if you look at the comparable player tool on Fantasy Pros, or Betty Pros, excuse me, versus the Rams, all six wide receivers that are locked in on that comparable side have gone over the receiving prop against the Rams. So five straight for him. It's a low total at 40.5%.

16:28 Seven wide receivers that have faced the Rams have gone at least over this receiving yard prop. Every single game except one, one wide receiver, not tight end, but one wide receiver has gone over this receiving prop as well. The only game was the Eagles, and that has been a struggle. Every other game they have gone over, a wide receiver has gone over this. In fact, the 49ers I think in week one had three wide receivers that hit this prop. So it's a low hanging number for Trey Tucker, who's kind of played like a pseudo number one.

16:57 So I really like this one for Trey Tucker to go over 40.5 receiving yards. All right, let's go into prop number three for each of us. This is going to be number five total here. And Erickson, you are living up to your Undertaker moniker. Another under for you.

17:14 I'm going back to the Giants backfield, hopefully to find better success this week. Tyrone Tracy under 25 and a half rushing yards. So we're not exactly sure how this Giants backfield is going to shake out, although the tea leaves are really pointing strongly towards a Cam Scadaboo type of bounce back here. Now, I'm not brave enough to take the over on Cam Scadaboo and whatever his rushing yards or rushing attempts props are because they've probably been nuked compared to his season long ones. But all the reports out of the Giants training this week have been that, yeah, like, Scadaboo's back in the RB1 chair.

17:51 Except the, I don't think we saw the light. I didn't mean to catch up, but there was, like, one report that came out, like, couple hours ago that was like, he is still in the doghouse and that they are going to be looking at acquiring a running back, which I think was kind of silly.

18:04 Like why?

18:04 You know, like, I mean, I guess they're top of the division, but just to throw that as a little side, because I'm the dummy that's been on all our networks. Like Kim, Kim, Kim's going to bounce back. And he, he took accountability for it. And there's a report out there that like the accountability don't mean nothing, but I just wanted to throw that out there.

18:20 Regardless. it's a backfield that we're not exactly sure how it's going to shake out, right? There's a lot of question marks about who's going to see what. Now, could it be, again, I think it's going to be Scadaboo that's going to be back in the lead, not to the extent that he's a full-blown workhorse, but he'll lead the backfield. Tyrone Tracy will mix in. Devin Singletary will probably mix in too, just based on kind of what we saw last week. But last week we saw Tyrone Tracy lead the backfield in terms of his carries, but he was very underwhelming in terms of what he actually did on the ground. He had six carries for 18 yards.

18:51 Right.

18:51 And a rushing touchdown. He didn't even leave the team in snaps. That was Devin Singletary. Now, part of that had to do with them playing in comeback mode in the second half of the game. But I think in a backfield committee, that's a total mess in a matchup. That's really brutal. I just want to fade this backfield into oblivion. So the Texans are allowing the seventh fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Second fewest yards per carry the season overall at 3.4. They've only allowed 10 rushing attempts of 10 plus yards. Dead last in rushing yards over expectation per attempt allowed. Fifth fewest rushing yards allowed before contact. I mean, Tyrone Tracy hasn't necessarily been that good when he's had the opportunities so

19:30 far this season. And when you look at the combined efforts of those running backs that got to play last week, not Cam Scadaboo, you had 14 carries for 34 yards in week six. So when Tyrone Tracy was previously in the committee with Cam Scadaboo earlier in the around 15 and a half, 16 and a half yards. I feel like that's what his number should be closer to just based on if we get to see something similar to what we saw to start the year where cam scattered is the lead or the one a Tyrone Tracy kind of mixing as a one B. So just given the matchup is totally brutal. The fact that Tyrone Tracy really hasn't been that efficient. He's only averaged, I believe, 3.1 yards per carry this season. I mean, there's a chance

20:12 that there's no run game and no running back can be successful. And that's why they want to trade for another running back because nobody on this team is actually going to make a difference. So 25 and a half rushing yards is high enough for me where I feel good taking the under in a tough matchup. All right.

20:25 We are going to jump over to Gino Smith for my prop. Oh, yes. Gino Smith. Passing yards. Geno Smith passing yards over 220. Why? We are picking on the Miami Dolphins as you do and as you can pick on the Dolphins. Geno Smith has hit this in three of his last five. The Dolphins have given up the passing yard prop to quarterbacks in three of their last four, going 240 plus on each one of those. There's actually also a couple lines on a couple spots of like 240 plus. floating around for Geno Smith. So that might be played up just a little bit to monitor where that could be heading into the near future. But I mean, the Dolphins grades have been bad. The Dolphins 30th of 32 against quarterbacks, as far as like past coverage go,

21:12 they really struggle on tight ends and running backs, not necessarily, you know, the spot that we want the we want the or the Dolphins struggle with that. We want Geno Smith to be just peppering Garrett Wilson and Omar Cooper. But if Braylon Allen and Brees is back, that's still a good thing. Sadiq can make some big plays. And this is a relatively low number. And another fun fact is the Dolphins have given up 20 completions every single game to quarterback. So every single quarterback that has played them has completed 20 or more passes. When Geno Smith this season completes 20 more passes, He smashes this number.

21:51 He smashes this passing yard total. So 220.5, so essentially 221 on the over. That's where I'm going to go with this bad boy, Geno Smith on the passing yards. Three up, three down for both of us. We've got our final two coming up here in a second, but let's talk about our friends over at Polymarket. Basketball season is here, and a new way to trade on it is the new prediction market called Polymarket. Polymarket is a prediction market. It's a stock exchange for sports, buying in and selling out on your terms. Polymarket's so confident that you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 in your first trade. When you deposit, just $ 10. Every bucket, every block, every matchup in basketball

22:32 trades here. So download the Polymarket app today and use code FPPOD when you sign up. That's FPPOD to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. All right, our fourth props in. Erickson, can you play an over? This is one of yours that got squashed a little bit because some injury news out there. So talk to us about your fourth prop of the week.

22:58 National tight ends day is on Sunday. So naturally we have to be betting some overs on some tight ends. Tyler Higby over four and a half receptions is open to three and a half. The line has moved because of the injuries to Devante Adams and obviously Puka Nakua, where when we're recording, we don't know exactly whether he's going to play or not. So just keep that in mind as we kind of see these numbers move up and down. But I don't think this is going to a point where it's going to be five and a half receptions. Maybe his yards will move up. So I still feel pretty good about four and a half receptions for Tyler Higby. He has three straight games with at least 62 plus receiving yards, three of them since week three,

23:35 excuse me. And he has four catches in four straight games, five plus catches and 62 plus yards and three of them since week three. Now, last week was when he got outproduced by Kobe Parkinson. Parkinson actually was the more productive of the two Rams tight ends. And there's actually a lot of sharp money on the over with Kobe Parkinson as well. But I think that they're missing the narrative here with Tyler Higbee actually having the better usage in the Rams offense. So even though Parkinson was more productive, when you look at who was running the majority of the routes and who was playing more snaps, it was actually Tyler Higbee. So I actually like him a little bit more in this matchup. His route participation hit a

24:10 season high at 78%. Meanwhile, Parkinson was at 53%. So although Parkinson probably is a better bet for like an anytime touchdown, but In this Rams offense, I think just from a reception standpoint, especially against the Raiders, Las Vegas is the third most catched tight ends of this season. Higby has been kind of Matthew Stafford's check down guy over the last month. Again, four catches in four straight games.

24:32 And I think that continues with the compromise at the wide receiver position. All right.

24:37 My number four, it's going to be a funny one because I was poking at you all week about Bo Nix and more about Jalen Waddle was more of what it was about. We've had a lot of Bo Nix conversations from fantasy pros on the rank side to our tailgate channel with Alfredo Brown. And I think there's one undeniable thing. Cardinals are a bad secondary. There's definitely a movable object force. There's a saying in there that I clearly cannot say, but it is a bad Bo Nix and a bad secondary and what is going to lay out at the end of the day. Bo Nix has been really, really atrocious. But the Cardinals, look at this.

25:15 They have given up two, at least two passing touchdowns to quarterbacks in five straight weeks. That is a 16 to three touchdown to interception ratio on the year. The only one was the Chargers. Only one in week one. Every other week you've seen a quarterback have multi-touchdown games. Bo Nix has not been able to do that a whole lot this season, but this is your get right situation.

25:39 1.5 over on the passing touchdowns. It's a plus money play right now with all of that coverage from a grading system. The Cardinals are worse than the Dolphins right now, 31 to 32. As far as quarterbacks go, they're not rushing the quarterback whatsoever, which is huge for Bo Nix. Bo hasn't really been running a whole lot, and he's made some bad decisions. Without any big pass rush, this is huge. Their wide receiver coverage. Now, this comes back into play with your defense of Jalen Waddell this week.

26:05 You're like, where's a Jalen Waddell anytime touchdown? 31 of 32 in wide receiver coverage. They struggle with tight ends. They struggle with running backs. Cardinals struggle kind of across the board. This is a potential Bo Nix get right situation. Maybe the yards aren't going to be there at the end of the day. Maybe they are going to line up into, you know, having some running backs go, but some good play action in the Cardinals, give it up in the air and two touchdowns, two passing touchdowns for Bo Nix is my play at plus money over 1.5.

26:34 I'm going to roll with you guys. I'm going to roll with your, your Bronco love. It's going to take us to our final props. I've actually got another Bronco I'm going to talk about here in a second. But you are going to jump back into National Titans Day. So your final prop before we get to our touchdowns, who is it?

26:50 Birthday boy, Pat Fryeruth going over 29 and a half receiving yards. His birthday is on Sunday. It's National Titans Day. So, I mean... If Aaron Rodgers is going to feed any one of these tight ends, it's going to be Pat Friar. So he's coming off a disappointing game, one of his worst games of the season. But if you recall, Welsh, he was a late addition to the injury report last week.

27:12 So I think that he wasn't playing at 100%. It looked like he actually got banged up towards the end of that game anyway. That being said, the Muth has gone over 29 and a half receiving yards in four of his six games played this season. And the matchup against the Saints is one you want to attack with these tight ends. They've allowed the third most receiving yards, two tight ends this season. They have faced seven different tight ends that have all gone over 30 receiving yards.

27:36 So it's a really low number. I know that Frymouth can be kind of frustrating because he still mixes in with Darnell Washington. But if you look at the rest of the Steelers, it's DK Metcalf, it's Jeremy Bernard, and then it's the tight ends, right? They don't really have anyone else. Again, they used to running backs a little bit in the passing game as well. But I think in this specific matchup, this is a spot where Frymouth can really thrive. And the fact that he still was running more routes than Darnell Washington last week, despite the fact that he was banged up and missed time because of injury I think that means he's going to be running closer to 70, 80% of the routes next week in a positive matchup. And it's his birthday, man. And

28:08 Rodgers loves birthdays. So, Ferrari Muth, 30 receiving yards. Lock it in.

28:12 I'm going to love you a birthday narrative. You need to, like, lock in the birthdays that align to Sundays and just get ready. We can just have future casting for the bets. All right. I am going to stick in the Denver Broncos game. And you can tell me at the end of the day if you like this one or not.

28:26 But I'm going to go J.K. Dobbins. And I am going to take my first under of the slate. Under. I had it at 51. I guess now that I'm looking over on betting pros, I am not seeing, no, I see a 51. I get to lock it in. I still see a 51.5. So I'm going to keep that even though there's some 50.5s. And there's a couple of things here. Going up against the Cardinals, it mentioned the Cardinals defense is bad, but it's really bad in the secondary. They've actually, I mean, they're averaging around a hundred yards given up per game to running backs, which doesn't make you feel great. But last week against the Rams, they kept both Corham and Kyron Williams under control. this total number. They've been able to do that a couple

29:04 times against running backs, but also it's been more primary share guys, Jameer Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, they've ate them up. But something I want to present to you is if Jonah Coleman is active, I think this is a spot where we are going to see Peyton bring in Jonah Coleman into the threshold, into the fray of all these guys.

29:22 RJ Harvey gets his run. I'm not confident that you're going to see that lion's share from J.K.

29:28 Dobbins.

29:29 Cardinals, it's not a great matchup also from a grade perspective. Overall, it's kind of a fair grade overall matchup according to PFF. Defensive front as far as like misplaced, tackles, they haven't allowed a lot of yards after contact. Their defensive front doesn't grade super well. But I think this is the correlative play where I think the Broncos are going to be able to pass the ball with some success. You're going to have RJ Harvey in there. And I really think you'll get back to that three-back system with how much Peyton had talked. I remember in the preseason, it was like, we don't need to see anything more from Coleman.

29:59 We've seen what we've had. He got hurt. He's back into it. So I think he could take some of that share away. Dobbins could hurt me with a big play, of course, but I'm going to go under 51.5 on the rushing yards. What do you think about Coleman, you know, I don't know, boost boosting the odds on this kind of taking away from the other backs? Or do you think I'm do you think I'm in some some scary waters right now?

30:22 No, I think you're attacking this game with the right approach. I think that given the matchup against Arizona Cardinals being really soft, this is an opportunity where how about we build Bo Nix confidence, right? And just like let him sling because this happens, right? The NFL quarterbacks don't care who they're throwing touchdowns against. It's like, oh, no, I did good. Like I played well. I don't care what defense it was against. That helps build momentum. So The fact that Dobbins has been underwhelming in efficiency standpoint, even if he does see the majority of carries, there's no guarantee he will even get to 51 and a half rushing yards. So I know we talked about it on the ranking show, how he's averaging career lows across the

30:57 board in terms of his yards per carry guards after contact per attempt, et cetera. So I think it makes sense that they would get Jonah Coleman more involved now that he's healthy and ready to go. RJ Harvey's always going to mix in as well. So I liked someone and I actually was looking at his rushing attempts as well at 14 and a half. And I was considering the under on that one. That was when I was, I left off my card, but it was a, I was looking at Dobbs and I was looking to, to pound some of his unders.

31:22 And the last, you know, I didn't even mention this. I almost forgot coming out of this. He's only gone over this prop once, like this number 50.5. He has only gone over this one game this entire season. And that was the Chargers. Yeah.

31:33 It was the Chargers.

31:34 The only game that he's gone over this. So Jonah Coleman back, Not a history of it. I don't care what Peyton's doing. I think it's a little bit more Coleman. I think we are playing the under. Those are our 10 props, but we ain't done because it's touchdown time. If you guys are looking for an edge in touchdown bets, our touchdown score report compares anytime touchdown stats to prop bet odds and projections to help identify the best anytime touchdown bets. Head over. to bettingpros.com slash touchdown for the latest touchdown prop analysis today. All right, Erickson, what do we got? It is national tight ends day. Are you going to keep with the theme? And again, remember we have only hit tight end touchdowns this year. That is

32:15 the only touchdown that we have six. And now we've had some good odds on them, by the way. That's why we like to usually bet them anywhere from two to one, two to three to one has kind of been the play for tight end. So are you going to go with a couple of tight ends and what are the odds?

32:29 Not only have we only hit tight ends with our anytime touchdown bets, I have only hit tight ends the weeks that they've played the Detroit Lions. So that's exactly what I'm doing. I'm not going to try to shake it up, dude. Just play the hits, man. Especially when it comes to Tucker Kraft on National Tight Ends Day.

32:47 He has scored three touchdowns over the last two National Tight End Days. 143 yards and two touchdowns last year on seven catches and nine targets in 2024 on National Titans Day. Tucker Kraft, three catches, 78 yards and one touchdown. What team has allowed more touchdown or know what team has allowed those touchdowns to Titans this season? It has been the Detroit Lions. So I know they're getting Brian Branch back. So maybe that will be the reason why Tucker Kraft doesn't score a touchdown, but he just has to beat the guy on one route. and he'll score.

33:15 So with all the attention on Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Josh Jacobs, Tucker Craft's kind of falling to the wayside a little bit, but I think Jordan Love on National Tight Ends Day is going to be like, let's get our guy going. He's coming off the injury from last year. Let's get this guy some yards out to the catch. So Tucker Craft for me, especially at plus 180 in a game where I'm expecting a lot of scoring, obviously Jameer Gibbs, he's going to score a touchdown. So I think Tucker Kraft is going to score on the other side.

33:39 More on that one later. More on Tucker Kraft later. I'm going to join you. Couldn't love that one more.

33:44 All right.

33:44 So that's your kind of like, I don't want to call it safe play, but remember, we like to play them between like one, two to one, and then we like to have a little bit of a bigger call. So where's your bigger call?

33:54 And then just going right back to Pat Frymouth, right? I like his receiving yards in this matchup against the Saints. They've given him a lot of touchdown production as well, just being bad against tight ends in general. And Pat Friermuth has been involved heavily in the red zone this season. He has four touchdowns already on the year, five red zone targets. The Steelers love to target their two tight ends in the red zone. Him and Darnell Washington have combined for eight end zone targets, 10 red zone targets with six touchdowns total. So again, It's Pat Frymouth's birthday.

34:20 I can see it right now. We're going to be entering 1230 and it's going to be trending on X as Pat Frymouth National Tight Ends Day because he's going to be playing in the early Paris game. And I guarantee they're going to be talking about, oh, did you see Pat Frymouth on National Tight Ends Day in Paris go off? Yeah, it's going to happen.

34:36 Maybe we could have another one of those. Remember when Rodgers threw to like every tight end on the roster? Remember it was like all three, like we could have another one of those for National Tight Ends Day.

34:44 All right.

34:44 I like it. I am sticking with at least one of the tight end themes here. And I don't remember the last time. When's the last time you saw Trey McBride at almost the same odds as Tucker Kraft? But plus 140. I know they obviously haven't got things going. But yeah, not the worst spot here. Denver Broncos, they're kind of median in general as far as tight end coverage goes. But they have given up touchdowns to tight ends in three of the last four games. So a national tight ends day, Trey McBride. Let's get that. And I also think they're going to be playing from behind and they're going to be passing the ball.

35:17 Before you get to your next one, I just want to say the Trey McBride call is so awesome because Trey McBride called out National Titans Day last year because the Cardinals were on a bye week. So he didn't even get to celebrate it last year. So he has a vendetta against National Titans Day. So yes. Guaranteed lock to score this week.

35:36 Guaranteed lock. What I also like, too, is like what we have seen in teams is take their top corners to lock down Michael Wilson, because that's where and that's where I think you could start to go like, oh, you know, the Sertanza. Like, I think you're going to have heavy coverage that has to be looked at it with Michael Wilson. And they've teams have seen success. in shutting him down, shuts everything down. And then they just have to worry about coverage on McBride. And I think they're going to be passing the ball a whole bunch. And, you know, they'll probably go back and forth, but this is a solid matchup for Trey McBride on national tight end.

36:08 Say the other one, I guess there's like a slight Homer call to it, but give me Christian Kirk at three and a half to one. I don't think Mike Evans is going to play. If he does play, it kind of opens up everything still. George Kittle is out screaming the good word of Christian Kirk. Yes, they've got Brandon Cooks. This team, I've jokingly kind of been talking about him even on tailgate earlier this year. Like this team is actually optimistic about what he is in the offense.

36:38 George Kittle absolutely loves him. I, think we are going, based on all the injuries, we are going to see him in those two wide receiver sets. He's going to get coverage on Purdy. And when they get in the red zone, you're going to have a lot of Atlantic coverage. It's going to be hovered over Kittle and hovered over McCaffrey.

36:54 And if there's no Mike Evans, it's going to be slot work for Christian Kirk. So three and a half to one Christian Kirk plus 360. That is my second touchdown on the big play. So I guess I went away from the national tight end state. Last up here, first touchdowns. You got a big dog here. Actually, I'm going to get mine out of the way. You already mentioned him. Everything you said, attach it to Tucker Craft and now put it on the first touchdown. That's all that it is. All of your amazingly great analysis, I'm lockstep with. PFF grades Tucker Craft as the number one tight end matchup for this week. Coverage stinks across the board.

37:30 So....

37:32 Let's just get the first touchdown. It's, I believe I have it at 14 to one. So Tucker Kraft, first touchdown, 14 to one on National Tight Ends Day. That's my play. You have a much, much bigger tight end first touchdown call.

37:47 Ravens tight end, not Mark Andrews. Can't do that. Matthew Hibner, 55 to one to score the first touchdown for the Baltimore Ravens. So for those who aren't familiar, Matthew Hibner is a rookie tight end from SMU. Big fan, D-Bro, is of Matthew Hibner, or as he likes to call him, Matthew Him-ner.

38:06 Him-ner.

38:06 Because he is him. He did score a touchdown earlier this season. But what I'm encouraged about with Hibner is they heavily use him in the red zone. If you look at his just total snap percentage... This year, he ranks top 15 among all tight ends in terms of snaps inside the 10 yard line. He missed last week because he had a hand injury, but he's been practicing in full this week. So I'm expecting him to be back in the lineup. The Ravens have been using both of their rookie tight ends a little bit more this year because they lost Durham Smythe to a torn Achilles injury.

38:37 So it's been him and Josh Quavos that have kind of really stepped in and played 30, 40, 50% of the snaps. But Hibner was ahead of Quavos before his injury. If Hibner gets back to around his 50% snap rate, where he was around weeks three and four, he's going to see red zone opportunities. And when you're facing Cincinnati Bengals, it's the flow chart, man. Where do you go when you attack the Bengals? Like this week, I'm just attacking all the teams I know are bad against tight ends.

39:01 That's the Saints. That's the Lions. And that's the Bengals. Oh my. Okay.

39:05 We're trying to get right, man. We're trying to get right. And remember the first touchdown, you cash your first touch. Your touchdowns are golden for the season. You're good for the rest of the year. You're solid. So 55-1. Yeah, 55-1.

39:18 This was the process I followed way back when I hit my first touchdown bet. Donald Parham Jr. for the Los Angeles Chargers. He was playing in a high-scoring game. He was a tight end that had got a lot of red zone snaps. And I was like, all right, I think there's something here. So trying to follow the process here with Matthew Himner and he's going to deliver because he's him.

39:39 All right, there you go. What are your first touchdown calls? What are your favorite overall touchdown calls and your best bets? Drop them in the comments below. Let's see what you got. Let's track where you're playing it out and see if we can dig ourselves out of a bad week six and just rock it with week seven with National Tight Ends Day. That's going to do it for the episode.

39:59 Make sure you download the Betting Pros app. So not only can you track all of your bets, but you can check out all the incredible tools that are going to help you make the best betting decisions this season. Make sure you're subscribed on the YouTube as well, youtube.com slash bettingprose. And that's all that we got for you.

40:13 Good luck. Hopefully you guys get some big cashes in week seven. We will talk to you next time right here on Betting Pros. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast.

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