MUST-START Players for Week 7! Fantasy Football Sleepers & Start/Sit Picks (Ep. 2286)

0:00 Alright, and welcome into the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. Week 7 of the NFL season is upon us as are bye weeks, another round of injuries, and yes, another week of Deshaun Watson and Tanner McKee as starting quarterbacks making start-sit decisions. More tough than ever, but we've got you covered right here on this primer episode of the program.

0:21 featuring our favorite must-start players. I'm your host, Seth Wilcock, joined by a man who I know will have all eyes on Houston when J.J. McCarthy makes his starting debut with the New York Giants. He's the never elusive, but always intrusive, Derrick Brown. D-Bro, how are the vibes coming out of your primer writing cave for the week?

0:38 You are so elite with these intros on a weekly basis, my dude. Like, this is.

0:42 Because you're never elusive. You're always around, but you're yet always intrusive, even when I'm not thinking of fantasy. Some of the Derrick Brown thought comes into my head.

0:54 You see Darno Washington scored a touchdown last week, and you're like, I hate this on so many levels.

0:59 Yes, especially because it was on my dad's roster to beat me and send my family league team to 0-6. All time embarrassed. You can't do this for a living and be 0-6 in your family league. It does not go well. The techs are relentless. Shout out to Pops.

1:12 That's all I got to say, man.

1:14 Cut it.

1:14 Put it out of the social. Shout out to Pops. Darnell Washington taking Big Seth down for the L.

1:20 I love it, dude. You got to love it, man. Also love what we got on deck for today's program. We've got must starts for each of the quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions. And before we get to that, just wanted to quickly thank everyone for tuning in either right here on the Fans Pros YouTube channel or the audio feed. We're closing in right now on 300,000 subscribers and we can only get there with your help.

1:41 So please give this video a thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content and make sure you subscribe to the channel if you're new. And Derek, starting at the quarterback position, you're taking us to a place where I grew up watching on Rugrats in Paris, but is now hosting its very first NFL game.

1:57 Yes, sir. We're going to discuss one. Aaron, father time, Rogers, QB 13 and ECR. Dude, he's been, I've called him Jameis Rogers. I've called him Aaron Winston. He's been just yellowing it up, man. Like he's got 22 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. I've got him as a top 12 quarterback for the week.

2:20 ECR QB 13. The Saints defense has just been god awful, man. So I think Aaron gets it done. I think he gets two passing touchdowns. Probably eclipses 270 and above through the air in this game. New Orleans has given up the seventh most yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. Fourth highest passing success rate. It's a good coverage matchup. We're not on this program. We're not going back to the Darnell Washington well this week. I wrote it up in the primary. Go read it there. You can if you need tight end help. I think DK Metcalf has a massive game. We're not discussing him on this episode, but I think Rodgers can get it done, man. Everything flows back to Rodgers, the quarterback position. It is a wonderful matchup,

2:59 and I think he's a very strong QB1 for the week.

3:03 Maybe it's because he's just so comfortable in a Mike McCarthy system, but this is by far the best Aaron Rodgers we've seen outside the Green Bay, right? I mean, not even close with how good he's dealing right now.

3:14 Definitely better than the Jets version of him, but yeah.

3:17 And even last year, right? I mean, part of that, you know, that's kind of what you get with Arthur Smith, right? You're going to have a lot of bozo plays, but Aaron has full control of this offense right now. And whether it's Roman Wilson, whether it's Jeremy Bernard, whether Michael Pittman Jr. is the wide receiver too, we know it's Bernard this week. He's making it happen and making it happen in spades right now. Derek, let's play a quick game.

3:36 More quarterback one finishes this year, Aaron Rodgers or CJ Stroud.

3:41 Oh, Aaron Rodgers.

3:44 And CJ Stroud is the new hotness that everyone's talking about this week.

3:46 Yeah, CJ Stroud has been a QB one in each of his last three starts. Want to say top five in two of those?

3:54 Twice.

3:54 Twice.

3:54 Stroud's been twice.

3:55 QB 13 in the other game, right?

3:59 Yes, and Dak Prescott or Aaron Rodgers. Oh, Aaron Rodgers.

4:03 Dak Prescott's been god-awful, and yeah, we won't even get into a Cowboys conversation, but Shottie, Brian, hey, man, we need talk, brother. What the hell are you doing down there? No motion, no play action? What are we doing here, man? Reverse the course. But anyway, convo for a different day.

4:19 One more. This is kind of a Seth stat here. Patrick Mahomes, he did have a bye week.

4:25 Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, Aaron Rodgers.

4:26 Yep. Aaron Rodgers has three QB1 finishes.

4:28 Patty has been a game manager over the last few weeks.

4:31 Not a QB1.

4:32 Yep.

4:33 So there you have it, Aaron Rodgers. Derek, you're also taking us out to the desert where we'll see, hopefully, the Denver Broncos offense try to get back on track.

4:43 Well, I don't know if the offense gets back on track. But, dude, this shocked me when I pulled this up. Speaking of quiet weekly finishes, were you aware that R.J. Harvey– RB 27 and ECR has three top 24 running back finishes for the season already. RB 24.

5:03 I was not until I prepared for this show.

5:06 RB 12, RB 13. I was not until I got to the primer and I was like, what?

5:11 How did I miss this? And only one finish outside of the top 36 as well.

5:13 Yes. He's been awesome. Quietly awesome. And the big stat that I want everybody to understand with RJ Harvey in this game, and it's a fantastic matchup for Jalen Waddell, Cortland Sutton, Evan Ingram. All these guys have fantastic matchups. The thing about RJ Harvey that I go back to is we all know where the bread is buttered. It's in the passing game for RJ Harvey. He's got a 15.8% target share, 2.3 yards per route run, almost an 11% first reach here, which is insane for a freaking running back.

5:43 The thing about RJ Harvey is the coverage structure for the Arizona Cardinals and why I think he's going to get just peppered with targets in this game. Arizona runs too high at the highest rate in the entire freaking NFL, Seth, 69.8%. The reason that this is big for RJ Harvey, do you know who leads the entire freaking team and target per route run rate? At 41%, Seth? RJ? 41%? Wow. 41% target per route run rate. That is elite.

6:16 That is insane.

6:19 That is wide receiver one alpha level usage when he is on the field. So versus Arizona... Again, pair this with the fact that the Cardinals have given up the 11th most yards per target to opposing running backs, and R.J. Harvey bet the over for the receptions, bet the over for the receiving yards, starred him in PPR leagues as a top 24 running back this week. ECR 27, he is inside of my top 24 running backs for the week, Seth.

6:46 Yeah, and it feels like he has to be Bo Nix's best friend right now. I am surprised it's that high of a target per route run share. But at the same time, when you look at what Bo Nix is doing right now, it's not, right? I mean, we've heard people on a mic call what he's doing, disrespectful of the quarterback position. He's not playing well.

7:04 Fitz, he's not wrong, by the way. Fitz, he's not wrong with that.

7:07 Yeah, and the shift at play calling has not helped thus far. We'll see if it can have a better result maybe here against the Cardinals defense. But last week, even in RB2 against the Arizona Cardinals, and Blake Corham had a really, really strong day. He got into the end zone via the air as well.

7:22 Oh, somebody that– We might have talked about on last week's episode.

7:26 Yes, sir. Yes, sir.

7:27 How we we discussed Blake Corham as a top 24 running back last week. And look at Corham was top 20. Seth, who knew? Who knew?

7:36 You want to know the sad part, too, is I had him.

7:39 Starting against you, too. No, no.

7:42 I actually started him against Pops in that league, but in a different league. I got a lot of Blake Corham. Let's just say that. But I fired him up in my league of record, my big money home league. And I had to sit him at the last minute because I was like, oh, Tyler, I was your starter. What could go wrong there? And I found out what could go wrong there.

8:00 You got bammed. That's what happened.

8:01 Yeah, I got bammed. We all got bammed.

8:03 Absolutely.

8:04 Absolutely. And speaking of getting bammed here, Derek, we're moving on to one of the grossest matchups of the week, one of the lowest totals of the week as well. But you think maybe, just maybe we can wring out some lemonade from these lemons.

8:16 I think we can, dude. And I think that Casey Concepcion is due for a big game. I know that he's wide receiver 74 in fantasy points per game. I know it's been god awful, but this has been a Casey problem in the sense of how well Casey Concepcion is playing versus the fantasy production. Like, That Grand Canyon in real life versus fantasy has been massive. I understand all of that, and I understand people are going to say there's no way in hell that I'm playing Casey this week. Amongst 100 qualifying wide receivers, Seth, Casey Concepcion is 12th in separation, 38th in route win rate. That's not commiserate with wide receiver 74 in fantasy points per game.

8:55 You also look at the fact that Casey leads the team in target share with 19%. He has a 26.7% first read share. He has a 27.3% design target rate. So all of this says that it really, with the narrative I'm constructing here, because I think it's real, is Casey Concepcion is due for a big game, Seth, because all the underlying analytics say he's good at football, and the matchup is definitively there this week. Tennessee Titans giving up the second most yards per target, fourth most fantasy points per opportunity. to opposing slot receivers. I think Casey Concepcion has his best game. And I know that's a low bar, low bar. I think he has his best game of the season. I think he's a comfortable top

9:38 36 wide receiver. I think he could be a wide receiver too if everything hits this week.

9:43 Yeah, you know, he is getting not as much of an opportunity as I thought he would, right? 20.2% target share right now. But at the same time, he's getting design targets, which not always great to leading to fancy success, but number one in the NFL right now at the wider seer position for that so that's at least one thing he is going in his favor the thing he doesn't of course it's just.

10:02 Deshaun watson at quarterback right absolutely terrible.

10:08 That is what really scares me off here. I do have a question here about scheme. Are we going to see more man coverage from the Titans, do you think, in this one? Because that is where it seems like he's getting a lot of target separation is against man coverage.

10:20 No, I don't think you're going to... You're not getting a lot of man coverage looks, not out of the Titans. Robert Sala is not a man guy, and I'll pull it up live in real... Yeah, sixth lowest man rate in the NFL, 14.5%. Okay. Okay.

10:31 All right, yeah. Maybe not my favorite, but... I like the hope. And I want to hope because, like, again, I have a future.

10:40 Awful versus slot receivers, dude, I think. And then, OK, it's just all of the underlying data points me to we've had blow up weeks from Denzel Boston, despite Deshaun Watson. We haven't seen one of those yet from Casey Concepcion. So I think we get it here, man. The matchup is all there. The usage has been there. The talent is there because he can't control how accurate the targets are coming his way. But what he can control is getting open in case he's doing that at a high rate.

11:10 Okay. All right. Well, speaking of gross matchups and gross teams, we got one happening in East Rutherford. This guy's getting disrespected, man. The Miami Dolphins, the New York Jets. What do you have for us here at the wide receiver position?

11:24 All right. So I want you to pull up Malik Washington's per game. Uh, just what we'll run down the scores on how many PPR points he has put up on a weekly basis. And we'll come back to that, Seth. So giving you some homework, why I start just, you know, spit the diatribe here. Malik Washington is wide receiver 42 in ECR. I think it's disrespectful. This guy has been a borderline wide receiver three. He's wide receiver 37 and fantasy points per game. He's coming off two straight, uh, top 36 weeks, wide receiver 35 and 23, uh, He has not scored a touchdown. And so, again, going back to this, Seth, if you toss a touchdown on top of Malik Washington's PPR point output every single week, add a touchdown to any one of those games. And now

12:09 tell me this. If you put a touchdown on top of almost every single one of those stat lines, is Malik Washington not producing at a wide receiver two level on points per game? If he would have scored a touchdown in any one of those games, Seth, roll through the PPR point production on a weekly basis. Let's just run the numbers here.

12:29 Yeah.

12:29 Run it.

12:30 6.3, 8.7, 11.1, 12.0, 12.1.

12:34 So every single game, if he scores a touchdown, he's anywhere probably in that third, like 12 to 18 range for production.

12:44 All of this says it's the touchdown stuff. Plus, he's getting rushing attempts, too. Yes. He's averaged over one and a half rushing attempts the last four weeks. Yes.

12:51 And he's getting a crap ton of volume, Seth. Like, this guy has got a 27.7% target share. Malik Washington has almost a 30% first read share. He's getting elite volume, and he's been damn good with the volume he's gotten. 1.93 yards per outrun. Plus, you go back to the coverage matchup for the Jets. They're running the 10th highest two-high rate in the NFL. Against too high, Malik Washington, 30% target per route run rate, 2.1 yards per route run.

13:22 The Jets versus slot receivers, 14th most yards per target, 13th most fantasy points per opportunity. I think Malik Washington is a strong wide receiver three this week. I think he finally, finally gets into the end zone. And Malik Washington walks away from this week as a wide receiver too, because he's been knocking on the freaking door all season, Seth.

13:42 And all we need is for him to finally score a freaking touchdown, dude.

13:46 I'll tell you what, I hate it a lot less than I thought I was going to when we started going down that realm. But yeah, nothing to say about it. Where he's at is it's all based.

13:56 Off of volume. Because he hasn't scored any damn touchdowns, dude. So if he does that this week, he's vaulting up the ranks and everybody's going to go, whoa, how did he score as a wide receiver two this week? Well, he's basically been doing that without the touchdowns every single week.

14:15 Question for you. Do you think that Caleb Douglas' return will impact that volume at all? Because that is a crazy target share for him to be earning right now.

14:22 I don't think it will, but I also don't think we get Caleb Douglas this week. He only had a limited practice to open the week. So.

14:28 OK, OK, maybe I'll jump in the shark on that one.

14:31 I think we're a week away from Cable Douglas. But even if he does play this week, I think we're still going to see Malik Washington because the Jets have been better against outside wide receivers and more soft against the slot, plus the coverage matchup and stuff. So I think it's Malik Washington, regardless of however we slice this.

14:48 Okay. All right. Well, let's go ahead and let's keep the good times going because we got some Tanner McKee football in prime time this week. What do you have for us out there in the city of brotherly love?

14:59 All right. We're going to go further, further down the rankings right now. And we are going to discuss Makai Lemon at wide receiver 52 and ECR. Is there a glittering stat that I can give you that tells you that Makai Lemon is just a smash play this week? No. But the matchup is absolutely fantastic for him. Now, the positives for Makai Lemon last week, he had almost a 90% route share, 11% target share, 15% first reach share. None of that's amazing. But you look at the matchup this week, Seth, dude, Dallas is being just absolutely just ransacked by slot receivers.

15:40 Dallas Cowboys are giving up. Dude, they're giving up the most yards per target to opposing slot receivers. they've given up the most receiving yards to opposing slot receivers. They have given up the third most fantasy points per opportunity to opposing slot receivers. So I'm not telling you Mekhi Lemon is going to lead the team in targets. I'm not telling you that he's going to jump Devonta Smith and Dallas Goddard in the pecking order. But Tanner McKee played serviceable. The Dallas Cowboys, none of us think that this defense is imposing. Where you beat this defense is via the slot. Saquon Barkley might be back this week, so maybe they get a competent rushing attack to also pair with Tanner McKee to take some of the pressure

16:20 off of him. I think Mekhi Lemon can be a very serviceable flex play. And again, I'm not telling you he's a wide receiver too this week, but I think what we could get out of Mekhi Lemon is he shows a pulse in fantasy and we get a serviceable like 12 to 13 PPR points, maybe a little bit less than that, where you're like, oh, Makai Lemon, wide receiver 32 for the week. He was a good flex play.

16:44 And if he gets in the end zone, wheels are up, man.

16:48 This is a crazy one I dug into. There have been 21 targets to opposing slot receivers against the Cowboys. Guess how many of those have been completed, Derek, out of 21 passes? 21 in completion to opposing slot and so like when you told me uh you know the yards per route run to opposing wide receivers in the slot i was not shocked by that because every one of them has been a completion pretty much right so that certainly helps so yeah dude i totally love that mckay lemons and someone i've actually been looking at potentially buying low on moving forward just because i think he will be a part of this offense with the short and in the intermediate game And he's even also someone like I'm looking at potentially getting on my betting card

17:32 for an over two and a half reception ticket out there this week. So, yeah, don't hate that at all.

17:37 To pair to all of this, just point to last week. Sabian Williams caught all four of his targets for 32 receiving yards. That's 7.2 PPR points. If you throw a touchdown on top of that, he's living in the 13 range. That's what we could see from a Kyle lemon this week. And that's not like a, an insane bar to clear, but for fantasy with bi-weeks and injuries and everybody's saying, but Kyle lemon is widely available on waiver wires. And I'm not saying that he shouldn't be, but for this week, if you are struggling and you're like, yeah, all right, but Kyle lemons out there on the waiver wire, let's go. Yes, you should.

18:12 Chris Godwin three for 37 on three targets. The week prior Jalen Noel three for 85 on three targets. the week before that back in week four. So yeah, I'm 100% in there with you. And I also imagine the fantasy pro start sit assistant would also be a ringing endorsement of Makai Lemon this week because you can take the guesswork out of your start sit decisions with the fantasy pro start sit assistant. Instantly see your optimal lineup based on your roster scoring settings and advice from more than 100 plus fantasy football experts. You can even set your lineup with one simple click and Get started at fancy pros.com slash start, sit and D bro. We're going back to the home of the Bay gets out in France.

18:53 What do you got for us?

18:55 Juwan Johnson. I know that everybody is like, okay, he's tied in 11 and ECR, but if you're looking at start, sit decisions this week, I know a lot of people are going to be very scared. And the reason that I bring Juwan Johnson up on this program is because if you're staring at Juwan Johnson or, I mean, just run through, uh, the, a few names above him, Juwan Johnson or Travis Kelsey, Juwan Johnson or Tyler Higbee, Juwan Johnson or Kyle Pitts. I am starting Juwan Johnson over all of these other low end tight end ones this week with confidence. And I'm saying that because, and I wanted to include him in this conversation for people because I, Over the last two games, 5.6 points, zero PPR points.

19:38 People are like, oh, dude, okay, maybe the party's over for Juwan Johnson. I think he has a really strong.

19:42 Bounce back game in this one.

19:44 And again, going back to the Pittsburgh defense, they've given up the ninth most yards per target against a postseason. tight ends. The six most fantasy points per opportunity to tight ends. Juwan Johnson. Again, I think that he bounces back. Chris Alave has a strong game, but I think Juwan Johnson gets in the end zone and he's a strong tight end one this week. And a lot of people might be scared off of him and playing other options above him because that's where I'm seeing in rankings right now.

20:08 It's just like, no, I'm taking Juwan Johnson over any, like all three of those different guys. So like Juwan Johnson is comfortable, like a top eight, top, top 10 tight end for me this week. Easy.

20:18 Yeah. Tight ends have hit double digit PPR points in 50% of the games against the Steelers this year. And Derek, it's so funny that this is still like a thing where this is where you can target the Steelers because every time back in college, when my friends and I would go to a Steelers game, we would always make sure that we all come together and put about 20 bucks, you know, in a pot, each of us. And we'd always bet the opposing tight end overs in that game.

20:43 And then if we won, we'd go to the casino and just continue the good times.

20:46 Right.

20:46 And we usually, we usually did win because like the Steelers have always had a sieve in their defense where they cannot, you know, stop opposing tight ends. It's been a little bit better at times this year, but you know, throw out Kate Auden's game last week. Cause it's Kate Auden. But the week before that, Tyler Warren, nine targets, seven receptions, 83 yards. Harold Fannin Jr. found the end zone on 3-27.

21:07 Mike Kosicki, 3-37-1 the week before, too. So, yeah, you know, this is a linebacking corps that's been paid a lot by Pittsburgh. It's not one that can stop tight ends. Not very good. Yeah, exactly.

21:17 Not very good. Two other real quick shout-outs if you're struggling at the tight end position as far as streamers.

21:24 I am. I got Harold Fannin Jr. a lot of places.

21:27 And this is, like, I just wanted to give the State of the Union address on... Jawan Johnson before we kind of like, I just wanted to add these other guys on because they almost made the show this week. Like we almost went too tight in heavy. I almost went further down the board. So I didn't want to get them in for people in deeper leagues. Or if you're struggling in a dynasty league of filling out final flex positions, Mason Taylor last week, definitively it was the clear number one tight end for the jets. The Miami dolphins have given up the second most yards per target. Third, most fantasy points per opportunity to opposing tight ends. And then speaking of guys where we have not spoken their

22:02 name in many seasons so far, Evan Ingram. Evan Ingram, I think, could be a tight end one this week. Going back to Denver's usage, or at least how they attack too high coverage, Arizona, again, just to remind everybody, highest too high rate in the NFL. Evan Ingram is right behind R.J. Harvey in target per route run rate for the Denver Broncos at 23%, with a very strong 1.89 yards per route run against too high. arizona's giving up the fifth most yards per target and the fourth most fantasy points per opportunity to opposing tight ends so mason taylor and evan ingram might also sneak in with some really um surprising weeks in week seven.

22:42 What it could have been for justin joe lee man i miss you justin joe lee hopefully hopefully but uh it's it's evan ingram time is what downtown derrick brown's talents a couple of Gross tight end shout outs there on the way out. Appreciate that. Appreciate all the great analysis, not just here on this episode of the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast, Eric, but also in the primer at fantasypros.com that you can also check out. Also, be sure, comment down below your favorite week seven must start players.

23:08 And while you're here, make sure you're smashing that like button and subscribing to the channel if you're new. For Derek Brown, I'm Seth Wilcock. Take care, y'all. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.