Week 7 QB & TE Rankings: Best Starts, Biggest Risks & Sleepers (Ep. 2283)

0:00 Hello, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Pros Ranks episode for quarterbacks and tight ends. I'm Chris Welsh. That is Pat Fitzmaurice and Andrew Erickson. We're going to be going through the top 12 quarterbacks, top 12 tight ends, talking a few plays and who some of the starts and maybe some of the avoids you're going to want to have this week. And if you guys want to join along with us, go to fantasypros.com slash rankings. You can check out where all the quarterbacks are.

0:24 You probably want to go deeper if you're playing in super flex leagues, how those are going to change throughout the week. And the same thing for tight end. Lots of different formats. Go and lock in yourself. Check out all the ranks. But if you want to follow along, that's where you want to go. So we will waste no time and jump right into the big board. We are going to be talking about quarterbacks. And at the tippy top, man, I haven't seen this for a while, your number one quarterback for the week, Brock Purdy. Brock Purdy coming in at number one up against Atlanta. Drake May, number two, followed by Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Caleb Williams, and Joe Burrow. Seven through 12, we've got Matthew Stafford,

0:58 Dak Prescott, CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, Patrick Mahomes, and Kyler Murray. Those are your top 12 quarterbacks for this week. Let's talk about a few of them. Matthew Stafford, quarterback seven on ECR. You guys are split a little bit. Erickson, you have him at seven, but Fitzy, you bumped him down to 12. So why don't you start us off, Fitz, and talk about maybe some hesitation with Matthew Stafford?

1:24 Maybe just a bit. But before we talk Stafford, real quick, do you guys have Brock Purdy as your QB1 when his number one receiver might be Brandon Cooks?

1:33 I do not. I only have my quarterback as A.J. Brown as my receiver one.

1:38 Yeah, that is also the quarterback that I have. I do not have Brock Purdy at number one.

1:42 Yeah.

1:42 Are you guys two or three?

1:44 I'm three.

1:45 I'm also three.

1:46 Who's number two?

1:48 Jordan Love.

1:49 I was about to say, are you giving Love to quarterback two?

1:52 You can't get me off the field, man.

1:54 I know.

1:55 What about you, Fitzy?

1:58 Do you have Love at two?

2:00 I have Purdy at two, but I'm thinking about moving Love.

2:04 Up to two.

2:05 I mean, we saw the offense without Mike Evans in the second half against the commanders. And now again, you get to game plan for it. So it's a little bit different, but. Yeah.

2:12 As soon as Evans was gone, the 49ers were just like, we'll just give this game away. Like Evans created, it creates incredible separation. He's a third down monster. He opens up the rest of the pieces. And as soon as he wasn't out there, the 49ers became like one ish dimensional, you know, they're like, okay, well, we'll shut, you know, we'll stay low. We'll shut down a kettle and, You know, bad plays and easy rush on Purdy. So I'm just worried the same thing kind of generally ends up happening.

2:38 Evans is a huge critical piece of that. And I think you guys would agree with this. When you've got a couple other great options, you've got Drake May going against Chicago and Jordan Love going against Detroit. I'll just take those pass-heavy opportunities over Purdy. Not to say that Purdy's not going to be awesome. We're still talking about him at three, but I couldn't put him there. But let's get back to Stafford, though. QB7, Fitzy, you pushed him down to 12. He's got Vegas. It is a five-star matchup. One of the couple May and Loverbelt-given five-star graded matchups this week on Fantasy Pro's on the ranks page.

3:09 But so is Matthew Stafford. So where is your negativity built around wanting to start Stafford?

3:14 Well, Brock Purdy isn't the only quarterback missing a very good elderly wide receiver. Devontae Adams, after his hamstring rupture, not available to Matthew Stafford. And I don't think Stafford is going to fall apart without Adams. But It is worth noting that Stafford's passer rating this year is 91.7 and on throws to Devontae Adams, it's 104.1. That's not nothing.

3:42 And yes, he still has Puka Nikua. And, you know, I've no doubt it's the Rams. I could see Kanata Mumfield stepping up or we know the tight ends are going to be prominently involved without Devontae Adams. But that is a big weapon for Stafford to be missing, especially in the red zone. And Stafford does not augment his passing value with any rushing value whatsoever. So I just, I can't put him inside the top 10, let alone wherever ECR is at like seven.

4:14 Erickson is worried about Devonta Adams being out. He's still got Puka. You've got him at QB seven. You're on ECR.

4:20 Yeah, we'll get 24 more targets for Puka Nakua. I think that'll more than make up for the loss of Devonta Adams. So that's what I'm not as concerned without Adams. I think that They can potentially replace some of his touchdown production with the running backs in the passing game, which has kind of been a new thing in this Rams offense. The fact that they're going to use so many tight end heavy sets. I think the matchup's good against the Raiders. Six best matchup terms of fantasy points allowed two quarterbacks. Rams have a really high implied team total this week from Vegas, which suggests, hey, they're still going to throw and score a lot of touchdowns in this matchup. And just last year, in the last couple

4:51 of games they played without Adams, Matthew Stafford's quarterback finishes were QB3, QB17, and QB2. So clearly there still is a ceiling here, even without his big bodied red zone weapon in Adams. So that's why I like him still a seven.

5:04 You guys both bumped up CJ Stroud versus ECR. Stroud comes in as quarterback nine going up against the Giants. You guys are seven and eight. Erickson, you got a bunch of fits. Why don't you kick us? Because you're the highest here. But you've got to make QB seven this week. Who did Stroud jump over for you? And, you know, especially like that's essentially the Stafford ranked. Where is your big push on Stroud this week?

5:31 I've got C.J. Stroud ranked ahead of guys like Dak Prescott and Joe Burrell and Stafford, obviously. Stroud is playing some really good ball. Over his last three games, he's thrown six touchdown passes. He's completed 71.7% of his throws, and he's averaged 307 passing yards per game. Oh, and 9.3 yards per pass attempt over the last three games.

5:58 He's just been balling, and he gets a Giants defense that is allowing the seventh most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. And we know the Texans cannot run the ball, so they have to move the ball through the air.

6:12 Erickson, I'm really curious the same thing. Who are a couple quarterbacks that you put below Stroud for this week?

6:18 Dak Prescott. He's one spot ahead in the ECR. Prescott has one top 10 finish this year. He has two inside the top 12 where Fitz just outlined how well CJ Stroud has been playing, especially over the last couple of games. He's been a top 15 quarterback, three straight games. And I mentioned this on the tailgate, but this year, CJ Stroud is posting career highs in passer rating, completion percentage over expectation, passing success rate, EPA per drop back against a career low 31.7% pressure rate. And all he's doing is getting more guys back, right? Adding Marvin Harrison Jr. helps. Again, Tank Dell back, that helps. So I think that he's working with the best receiving core that he's had since

6:55 arguably his rookie year when you had the breakout with Tank Dell, when you had Nico Collins, because I know they added Stefan Diggs in his second year and then all those guys got hurt. But right now he is firing on all cylinders. And some of these other quarterbacks that are ranked ahead of him, just it's been more lackluster, especially when it comes to like Dak Prescott. So I think that ECR is probably going to adjust with this when we take a deeper look at how well CJ Stroud has been playing. It's a great matchup against the giants.

7:19 Seventh best in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They've allowed 27 or more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and back-to-back leads. They've been blitzing a lot more. The giants fifth high splits rate. And without Brian Burns, that's what teams do with you lose a, one of your main pass rushers. You try to dial up more generated pressure Stroud against the blitz, the season number one completion rate over expectation. So I think that he's just going to continue to ball out.

7:43 Now, Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray comes in at QB 12 against the Colts. We've talked about in previous episodes, both the running back and wide receiver episodes, talking about the Colts defense. Kyler Murray pops in at 12. You guys are split. Fitzy, you do not have him as a top 14 quarterback. Erickson, you pushed him up as a top 10 quarterback. So I'm curious about Erickson. We'll start with you because you are the high man on him.

8:09 I want you to talk about Kyler Murray also, but Where do you have Kyler Murray versus, let's say, like a Patrick Mahomes who's going up against Seattle? Really bad matchup. He comes in at 11. Did you push Kyler Murray as a start above Patrick Mahomes?

8:23 Yes, I did. I'm willing to take a leap of faith with Kyler Murray this week because everything suggests this should be his best game of the season. You have a great matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. You have everything in the cupboard for the Vikings. This is the first game that you're going to have Jordan Mason and Jordan Addison and and TJ Hawkinson, and Justin Jefferson, and Christian Derrissaw, and all the pieces that you're expecting from a high-end offense for Kyler Murray to work with. And to his credit, he has gotten better every game that he has played.

8:53 If you look at his yards per attempt, his success rate from the pocket in two straight games, season-high 8.5 yards per attempt, 52% success rate in his last game in Week 5, when, again, he wasn't working with all of his weapons at his disposal. So I think that with... healthy offensive personnel, given the matchup and the fact that too, Kyler Murray is also running the ball. Like he has rush attempts that also help his bottom line in terms of being a fantasy producer. He has 16 rushing attempts over the last two games for 67 rushing yards. He was QB 15 against the Saints. So I think that this is going to be Kyler Murray's best game to date.

9:28 I think he's going to be a fantasy QB one after week seven. Fitzy.

9:33 Your rank does not agree. I'd actually be curious, too. I could see a scenario where maybe you push Patrick Mahomes down, but you have Mahomes over Kyler Murray. You have him down at 15, so you don't seem too optimistic about trying to put him as a start this week.

9:47 I do, and it's always that's the ranking dilemma where you, especially for quarterbacks, when you're debating matchup and supporting cast versus just the kind of player someone is. and there's no doubt in my mind Patrick Mahomes is 10 times the quarterback that Kyler Murray is like he's just so much better a passer and a player and Kyler since coming back from his concussion he's averaged 13.7 fantasy points per game Quarterback 26 his last three games in fantasy points per game. Hasn't gotten to 250 yards in a game this season with the Vikings. Does add a little bit of rushing value. Had 51 rushing yards last week, but that was really the first time this season that he has moved the needle at all as a runner.

10:35 So I just, I want to see it. I want to see the big Kyler Murray game in Minnesota before I buy in.

10:41 We're going to move off of quarterbacks, but there's one very important question. Andrew Erickson. Is Bo Nix a top five quarterback for you this week?

10:50 No, I have him. He's a top 20 quarterback.

10:55 Sham, Shamakri lies. You are a false prophet. Where do you have him ranked?

11:01 18 or 19.

11:01 Oh my God. If you listen to the other episodes, Erickson's like, it's Bo Nix time. They're all Jalen Waddle type.

11:08 I did not say those things.

11:11 But you were pro Jalen Waddell. I was not prepared for a QB 18 Bo Nix after all of your nonsense with the Broncos.

11:20 So Erickson promised us vintage John Elway and he really only met vintage Jake Plummer.

11:26 Yes.

11:26 Oh, I love Jake Plummer.

11:27 Yeah.

11:28 Back in the day. All right. Fitzy, where do you have Bo Nix?

11:31 QB 17. I'm high.

11:32 Oh my God. You're higher on. Oh, okay.

11:35 We found the believer on the believer.

11:39 It's Morris.

11:40 I love it.

11:41 By Monday night, the advice is in your lineups are locked and all you can do is watch. Maybe you're protecting a one-point lead. Maybe you need 12 out of your flex. Or maybe your opponent has one kicker left and now every field goal attempt feels personal. Make one part of the night perfect. Get DiGiorno pizza ready for kickoff.

12:00 Then settle in, enjoy restaurant-quality pizza from your own oven, and stay locked into the matchup through the final snap. You don't want to step away when one target, one touchdown, or one unnecessary point can decide your week. Buy DiGiorno pizza on the weekend run so you at least know Monday night dinner is covered. Rankings can guide you. Waivers can save you. But once the game starts, fantasy brings the chaos. Dinner doesn't have to. It's not delivery. It's DiGiorno.

12:28 Tight end ranks the top 12 board here. We've got Brock Bowers coming in at number one. George Kittle's got the two spot. Trey McBride, Isaiah Likely at four. Sam Laporta, Tucker Kraft, that's your top six. Bottom half is Dallas Goddard, Travis Kelsey, Colson Loveland making a top 10 appearance, Jawan Johnson, Harold Fannin, Tyler Higby. Let's do a little battle here.

12:50 Dallas Goddard comes in at seven. The quarterback situation obviously makes it very murky. You guys are both actually lower than ECR. But how about Isaiah Likely? Speaking of murky quarterback situations, he is at four. It's not a good matchup. And the J.J. McCarthy stuff could potentially change this up. Fitzy, why don't you kick us off here? Should we have, should we, I mean, really, should we have concerns with McCarthy as the quarterback for likely and how close is a battle of likely versus Goddard?

13:19 Not close in my estimation. I would start likely 10 times out of 10 over Dallas Goddard. I dropped likely one spot with JJ McCarthy. Um, I just moved Tucker craft in front of likely. So I've, I've now got likely a tight end six. I think you still start them still very much a passing game center to run Malik Nabors and Isaiah Likely.

13:42 I was just going to say, I realize you have him at 13. You have him at tight end 13, so there is a much bigger gap for you. Goddard is not a starting tight end for you this week, in top 12 at least.

13:54 I do not understand the ECR on Dallas Goddard at all. This offense stinks. Dallas Goddard last week, yes, six catches, 61 yards on eight targets, but at age 31, now he is kind of a catch and fall down tight end and his odds of scoring a touchdown in any given week with Tanner McKee at quarterback are not very good and Tanner McKee averaged what 4.1 4.3 yards per attempt last week like this is a bad offense I want no.

14:22 Part of it Erickson you're closer you're still lower on Goddard than ECR you've got him at nine but he's his top nine tight end for you What is the gap of Goddard versus Likely? We already knew there's a new quarterback in play for Goddard, but now a new quarterback in play for Isaiah Likely.

14:39 I would agree with Fitz that there's no debate with Likely versus Goddard. I think Likely is way too much upside, even with McCarthy, because there's a version where you get the good version of McCarthy and he's just slinging the ball downfield in the fourth quarter and the Giants are getting blown out, but it doesn't matter. So Derek Stingley can only cover one guy. And I know the Texans are dealing with a couple of safety injuries. I know Jalen Petrie missed last week's game and Reed Blankenship, their safety that they signed in free agency. He's also banged up.

15:05 So the way to attack the Texans has been some of these breakdowns in their secondary. So that's where you could see someone like Isaiah likely pop up. He's also just been so good, man. Like the dude is absolutely on fire and he's Harbaugh's guy. We know he's Harbaugh's guy. So I think he's going to continue to be featured.

15:19 And when it comes to tight end, man, like The bar to pass is so low already. I can't take out Isaiah. Whereas with Dallas Goddard, he feels more like the floor play, right? You're just betting on, okay, he has back-to-back games with six catches. You're not expecting a ton of yardage. Now the matchup is better against the Dallas Cowboys, just that defense overall. And I do think you get a little bit of juice here from Philadelphia. Again, they are home divisional underdogs this week. And what do we know? These teams always overperform versus expectations. We've seen the last couple of weeks with the Packers, with the Browns.

15:48 So Eagles offense, I think, can have a somewhat bounce back performance because they're facing Dallas. Dallas defense is so, so bad. They can't get out of their own way. So Goddard, to me, again, not someone you're excited to play, but someone's like, throw him in. He can give me a floor and we'll roll with that.

16:04 How about Tyler Higbee? Tyler Higbee comes in at tight end 12. He is, I mean, there's a couple of five-star matchups in there. Goddard is given a five-star graded matchup, by the way. Tyler Higbee against the Raiders, five stars. But I think the big thing is no Ferguson. no Devante Adams, there could be 24 more targets going to Pukunukuwa.

16:23 But I think the likely situation is you stare at Higby getting a much higher volume. And that's why he pops up as a top 12 guy. So Erickson, why don't you talk to us about him first? You've got him at eight. Fitzy, you've got him at nine. So you guys are both quite a bit higher. You seem pretty optimistic about Tyler Higby. So hit us with it.

16:42 And actually, is there any value of likely versus Higby or does likely still take the cake on that one?

16:47 I think I'm still going likely in that scenario, but I could see an argument where Higby ceiling is supremely higher than even Isaiah likely, because you look at what's the absence of Devante Adams creating in this offense is touchdown opportunities. And we saw at times last season, Kobe Parkinson have monster games without Devante Adams. He had two touchdowns in one of the games for catch for 36 yards on seven targets. Higby, even though he kind of took a backseat last week in terms of production against Kobe Parkinson, he has been the more consistent guy throughout the last couple weeks. He has three top 15 finishes so far this season. And if he had had Parkinson's box score, I think the ECR would just be handling

17:28 with me and Fitz where, oh no, he's like a locked and loaded top eight guy. Because when you look at the actual usage, it was actually more encouraging for someone like Tyler Higby, where the previous weeks it was like, I don't know how sustainable this is. Because when you look at his snap share, that increased his route participation hit a season high at 78% where Parkinson was hovering closer to 53%. So Higby's running more routes. He's playing more snaps. So although the box score suggests, oh, Parkinson was better last week. That's going to continue. The usage actually suggests, no, we're going to get more of Tyler Higby moving forward and touchdown equity in this Rams offense, a great matchup against the Raiders. So they've all had

18:06 the second most touchdowns to tight ends this season. So I think Higby has an extremely high ceiling. So he's definitely someone I'm trying to pick up off waivers and start.

18:16 Yeah, and Fitzy, you got Higby above Goddard this week. So you like him as a much better play. He's a top 10 tight end for you.

18:23 He's tight end nine. I feel like I could rank him higher than that. I do a tiers article every week. When I do my tiers article, I will have Likely and Higby in the same tier this week. And I would play Tyler Higby over... tyler warren if he's cleared to play against the vikings who smother tight ends um i mean higby has had 22 catches over his last four games and earlier this season he had an 11 target game against the broncos i think he's going to be very prominently involved in this game it stands to reason with no davante adams and um i think there are multiple rams tight ends you could start and feel pretty decent about this.

19:07 Week Last one, this guy was number 12 about a day ago. He's bumped down to 13, and you guys are quite a bit lower. People are going to probably, this is going to be a question right here. Would you start Kyle Pitts or Tyler Higbee? They're right next to each other. Kyle Pitts at 13. This is the main point to point. You guys are a lot lower on Kyle Pitts. You're not going to buy into anything with him. Fitzy, 18. Erickson, you got him at 16. Fitzy, you were the lowest on Kyle Pitts. Absolutely nothing there for you for Kyle Pitts.

19:37 I would not only start Higby over Pitts, I'd start Colby Parkinson over Kyle Pitts this week. It's just a tough matchup. The 49ers are giving up 6.5 half-point PPS. Oh, baby. And I think in the tough matchup, maybe we see Kyle Pitts not get targeted at a very high rate.

20:11 Erickson, would you start Colby Parkinson over Kyle Pitts this week?

20:15 I think I'd start Mark Andrews. So that's saying a lot for me because I never want to start Mark Andrews in any capacity. So I agree with the matchup being tougher for Kyle Pitts. And again, going, putting on my analyst hat here, trying to figure out this 49ers defense. I'm just so fascinated by the impact that Fred Warner has on this defense because I was watching that game last week and thinking, okay, well, Chicken Conquo is like getting involved here, right? Like could Kyle Pitts have this type of game? But then as I think more about it, well, Fred Warner's too busy QB spying Jane Daniels, which is why that things are opening up for the tight ends.

20:50 Not the case when you have Michael Penix as the quarterback, where you don't have to do a QB spy. Kyle Pitts draws Fred Warner, and it says, bye-bye, Kyle Pitts production. It's gone.

20:59 So.

21:00 Again, that's just one thing I've really liked watching the 49ers this year.

21:04 I love that. I feel like I've incepted your brain about Fred Warner because I talk about all the different things. I think he's the best defensive player in the NFL, but I'm a homer.

21:13 The fact the 49ers have still had a bunch of injuries on their defensive line. They still don't have Nick Bosa, but their defense is so much better. It's because of Fred Warner at linebacker. And I think that off-ball linebackers don't get enough credit a lot of time for the impact they make on the entire defense. But this dude changes everything for the 49ers in terms of how they erase mobile quarterbacks, how they can take away tight ends.

21:33 So just going back to the point, yeah, Kyle Pitts, I would not chase the two touchdowns from last week. All of his catches came in the second half in comeback mode. Now it's possible to get some volume, maybe garbage time or something along those lines. But I think it's going to be tough sledding for him this week.

21:47 So I agree with Fitz. It's it.

21:50 Oh, shout out Fred Warner. Shout out Fred Warner. That's the big key here.

21:52 All right, there you go.

21:53 Quarterback ranks locked. Tight end ranks locked. You guys want more? Make sure you are subscribed to the YouTube channel. If you're listening on the podcast where we got some of the live streams during the week, you guys are going to want to check out answering more of your questions. We've also got you Sunday mornings where the international games have had like a Saturday morning live stream. And then Tara and I are there on Sunday mornings answering all your start and sit questions. So make sure you guys are locked in there. Make sure you guys have the Fantasy Bros app downloaded for your best fantasy experience for the week. And that is everything that you got to do.

22:23 Thank you guys so much for hanging out with us. Good luck in week seven for Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice. I'm Chris Welsh. Thanks for hanging out with us. And we'll talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.

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