Week 3 Fantasy Football Key Questions: Best Matchups, Rankings & Lineup Decisions (Ep. 2221)

0:00 Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmly, joined today by Pat Fitzmaurice and by Derek Brown. We are answering our Week 3 key questions here on the show, previewing all of the matchups for Week 3. And, you know, this is kind of crazy that we're already here. This is really when, like, trends become real patterns and it feels, everything just feels a little bit more real, right? Like, 0-2 is like, man, you're off to a bad start, but you can bounce back. You get to 0-3 in your Fantasy Leagues. That's where it starts to feel closer to insurmountable, even if mathematically it's not that case. Reminder for everybody that all of our weekly consensus rankings and

0:37 tiers can be found at fantasypros.com slash rankings. Full slate to get through. So I say we just jump right in. Fitz, I will start with you with game one of the early slate. It's Chargers at Bills, a game that looked really fun prior to the season, looks a little bit more one-sided now. I think the spread last I checked was a full touchdown, which would have been surprising to hear a couple of weeks ago. Only two defenses fits have allowed more points this season through two weeks than Buffalo.

1:05 Is this the week that the Chargers offense finally comes through for fantasy managers?

1:10 I'm still pretty skeptical. The Chargers are 27th in offensive DVOA, 19th in yards per play, 31st in offensive EPA per play. It's just been pretty ugly. The middle of the offensive line still looks like it's a big problem. The Colts defense hasn't been great, but it's not. holtz level bad it's just that the bills offense has been so good that it's forcing opposing offenses to to really put their foot on the gas and and try to keep up um so not a lot of hope for the chargers just because of how bleak it's looked so far and because that offensive line still looks like a problem i think i'm slightly below consensus on a lot of the chargers and uh to begin with the consensus is pretty down on the chargers But I don't know, maybe the

1:57 Mike McDaniel offense suddenly kicks into gear at some point. It's possible, but there are some underlying issues here.

2:04 Debro, what do you think, both in terms of the Chargers offense, like getting a couple of games under their belt, maybe shaking off some of this rust and learning the new offense, in terms of the Bills maybe not having the strongest defense, also in terms of, like Fitz was saying, the Bills having such a strong offense that the Chargers might just get a lot of fantasy points from having to try to throw a ton to keep up. Do you think there's an opportunity here for the Chargers offense to bounce back a bit for their fantasy managers.

2:28 I think your hope for the Chargers offense this week is that they look like the Packers did yesterday and you get a lot of garbage time production. I don't know what kind of Chargers offense we get, man. I was skeptical about McDaniel in the offseason. I remain skeptical. But this is the week where if you want any kind of glimmer of hope, You got to hope that you get it this week, man, because if you don't get it this week, they have Seattle, they have Denver, they have Kansas City, they have Los Angeles, they have the Houston Texans and the Baltimore Ravens right after this.

2:58 So if hope isn't coming this week, people, it might not be coming at all. So I don't know. I see a path for the Chargers in this with the Bills, with how bad their defense has been in the early going. They've given up the 10th most yards per attempt, fourth highest passing success rate. It's a good matchup for Ladd and McConkie in the slot. They've given up the six most yards per target. It's a good matchup for Murray and Hampton. The Bills have given up the 10th highest explosive run rate, sixth highest missed tackle rate. And yet I lay all of this out and we will see how hard Mike McDaniel can Mike McDaniel this week. And I hope we get a good performance out of them because I know a lot of people invested very heavily

3:38 in them in the offseason. I put it at a coin flip.

3:43 And by the way, Worm, thanks for going straight into this game and not making me talk about the Packers and their Thursday night performance.

3:48 Yeah, I kind of brought it up there just to gaslight Fitzy a little bit. Sorry. But I know he's hurting this morning, too.

3:54 You know what? Part of it, I would like to sit here and say that, oh, I'm just that kind of friend and colleague that I was trying to think about your feelings. The truth is, because it was such a long show, I just kind of forgot to jump into it.

4:05 Worm was so happy I didn't start the show wearing a Saints jersey that he didn't know what to do with himself. Yeah.

4:12 No, no.

4:13 I mean, it's a good comparison, I think, for what we could possibly see in this game, right? Because I am very heavily invested in Jordan Love in my fantasy leagues this season. And I was very happy to see that they were down by so much so early in that game last night, knowing that we would get some garbage time scoring from that passing game. So it did end up panning out for the Packers fantasy managers the way that maybe it could for the Chargers. Just to put a bow on this Chargers game. You know, some of the rankings here, Fitz, you mentioned being lower than consensus on a lot of these guys. And also that consensus looks a little low. Gadsden is tight end 15 in consensus. Herbert is QB 13. Hampton is RB 14.

4:52 And Ladd is wide receiver 18. So the kind of top guy at each position for the Chargers is all in that mid-teens range. Does any of those stand out to you as particularly high or low? Or do they all seem fair?

5:03 I guess maybe I'm not below consensus on a lot of those guys. I'm pretty much right at consensus. I mean, that all sounds fair. And they could, if this gets to be a shootout, those guys all could outkick those week three ranking spots. But, man, it's just hard to have any confidence in what's going on with this Chargers offense.

5:24 The guy that I'm kind of the most worried about in this game, and I'll just bring this up real fast, because the fact that he has only a 3.7% target share, Hampton is a Marian Hampton. Like, could he just be game scripted out of this game? And then it's just a lot of lad and Aranda Gadsden and whoever the heck else. Quentin Johnson has been a ghost so far this year. But I'm I'm worried about Hampton probably the most out of this trio or four pack of players.

5:48 You know, if you want to throw QJ into this because he hasn't had any past game role, like all of our hopes for McDaniel using him in the past game and dialing up easy button throws for Justin Herbert just has not been there.

6:01 I suppose even if it means going out of order a bit, we should give at least a minute or two on the Thursday night game. There were some pretty big performances. Obviously, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, both getting 194 yards against Fitz's Packers defense. Michael Penix returns in this game to start for the Falcons and revives. Not that he looked amazing, but he revives their fantasy options outside of Kyle Pitts, unsurprisingly. Um, Packers run game unsurprisingly continues to not really do anything. And, and even the passing him to just behind this offensive line, it just feel like it was already not playing well, taking on more injuries.

6:41 It might nuke this season in, in a lot of ways fits this offensive line.

6:45 Yeah.

6:46 It's the worst in the league. Uh, it might actually make the 24, 2024, 2025 Houston Texans offensive line look like the, uh, late, 1980s, early 1990s, Washington Hogs by comparison. I mean, this line is so bad. They allowed, I saw 15 quick pressures against the Falcons last night. That's the second most of any team this year. First most Green Bay Packers in week one against the Vikings, 17 quick pressures. Like it's just, Zach Baco-Buele was the only average to above average offensive lineman they had. Now he's out for the season. Everyone else is below average to way below average. And you've got guards playing tackle, centers playing guard. It's just a mess. They can't handle the inside of the offensive line, can't handle power at all,

7:37 which is going to be a major problem. So even if Josh Jacobs comes back, Like, I think we're going to see a lot of 16 for 49 type rushing games from him where you need a touchdown or he's going to let you down.

7:52 It feels to me similar to CJ Stroud and the Texans where you're under pressure so much and so emphatically. that it starts to affect you even when you're not under pressure. They're not the same quarterback, right? But we've seen that happen with Stroud. And Greg Rosenthal from the NFL, NFL Media, had a good tweet about a half hour ago.

8:14 He pointed out that Jordan Love was first in EPA per play and seventh in success rate when not pressured last season. This season, when not under pressure, he's 25th and 27th in those metrics respectively. Watching the game, it feels to me like He feels the pressure even when it's not there because so often it is their fifth.

8:32 And I know people who have Christian Watson and or Matthew Golden on their fantasy teams right now are probably pretty enthusiastic because it's a consolidated passing game. And the Packers, since they can't run the ball, they're throwing a lot. I just worry that Jordan Love might not survive like this kind of pressure all season and that they're going to be Tyrod Taylor starts. this week, in which case you're going to feel less good about Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.

8:59 As of right now, D bro, how do you feel about those two receivers? And I'll throw Tucker craft in there as well. He hasn't looked great this season, obviously still working his way back from the injury, but the pass catcher is in this, in this receiving game. Golden has looked very good at particularly compared to last year, a hundred yards in a touchdown last night, Christian Watson, 96 yards in a touchdown. You obviously were all over him this off season and, Do you think they can still continue to produce, even if it is in these garbage time situations and things like that moving forward? Or are you really nervous just about everybody in the Packers, given how Love and this offense has looked?

9:29 I'm worried about the entire offense because of the volatility with, I mean, riding the roller coaster with Jordan Love and because of this offensive line and everything Fitzy laid out. I think the passing volume, because of how bad their defense is, We'll definitively be there, regardless of if Josh Jacobs comes back or floor wants to go run heavy, whatever passing volume is going to be there just out of necessity, because I think they're going to be trailing like their defense can't stop anything right now. They can't pressure like.

9:58 In fairness, the defense was actually. pretty good the first two weeks like they terrible game yesterday but it wasn't a bad defense the first two weeks and i don't think it's like it's not colts level bad.

10:10 I mean well the other thing is they did play carson wentz and chino smith in the first two weeks too so i think that kind of helps with the defense but Their pressure rate was surprising. I talked about that in the primer leading up to this game. So, like, the pass rush is there. They could not stop B.

10:25 John Robinson last night. Like, could not. Like, the only times that the Atlanta Falcons weren't able to run the ball when they wanted to was when they decided to pass. So, I worry about that. Plus, all the blown coverages. It's not like they have amazing corners. Like, they have a rookie starting. Like, the ups and downs of that. But, like, back to the pass catchers. I think that there will be passing volume, but again, you're going to have to ride the rollercoaster of what does that look like on a week-to-week basis because this offensive line is debilitating. And just talking about it from the 100-foot view of the Packers, when you know you have a quarterback like Jordan Love that is pressure-sensitive as somebody like Jared Goff, just juxtapose

11:05 these two front offices. One invests in the offensive line, and the other one says, I will make do. It'll be okay. And it's not OK. So it capsizes everything you want to do also from an offensive standpoint, because LaFleur, we've talked about this ad nauseum over the last few years. All he's wanted to do is run the ball, play slow, sit on leads like that's been his go to over the last few years of just running the ball and playing slow and choking at the clock. not only did the quarterback play before, cannot do that now. So what's he going to do? Like we can't, like we get all these stats about the Packers blowing late game leads and Yeah, that's because LaFleur is not adjusting. We're seeing

11:52 an offense and a head coach scrambling to figure out what the heck to do in real time because their offensive line is patchwork. I mean, I could joke right now about like, I'm just glad Tucker Kraft didn't play offensive line, but that was a real thing that got brought up last week.

12:10 Very quickly, no explanation or anything. Just give me a one-word answer, yes or no. Kyle Pitts is trash. Droppable, yes or no, Fitz?

12:19 Yeah, Penix doesn't really look his way.

12:22 Debra?

12:24 All hope is gone.

12:25 Same thing, very quick answer. Drake London, rest of season is wide receiver what with Penix back?

12:30 Fitz?

12:31 Item ranked wide receiver eight this week. Sounds about right.

12:34 Debra?

12:36 He's wide receiver one. Where you want to put him in wide receiver one is fine by me.

12:40 Something in that range.

12:41 Yep.

12:42 All right, let's get back to the actual Sunday slate here. Next game up, Panthers at Browns. Only one offense in the NFL has scored more points than the Panthers so far this season. But of course, that has come against the Bears and the Falcons in their first two games. Although based on Thursday night, maybe Falcons defense a little better than expected. Sorry again, Fitz. On a scale from one to 10, how legitimate is the Panthers offense moving forward in your opinion? Debra, I'll start with you here.

13:08 I think it's 6.5. Like, I want to believe in it, but I'm not totally sold. And this is not that I don't fully believe in all the skill players and stuff. This is me going back to the Bryce Young of it all. And just as we pull open the hood of like, OK, is what he is doing sustainable? Like the great metrics of Bryce Young is he's 30 yards per attempt. He's 10th in passing success rate. He's eighth in hero throw rate. But here comes the ugly. He also has the second highest deep ball rate, the second lowest catchable target rate, and the second lowest highly accurate throw rate. So there's a lot to chew on there where it's high variance throws that he's being asked to sit here and complete a lot. When you're walking that

13:55 type of tightrope on a weekly basis, it's fraught with peril. Like it might crash and burn at any point outside of the whole like, His size is still a limitation, how you run the offense because of his size and all that kind of stuff. So I guess I want to believe, but the metrics kind of make me be like, OK, is this the honeymoon phase before we see Bryce Shung kind of crater? Because he is walking a very thin, tight rope here.

14:23 What do you think fits? Is this legitimate? Is this sustainable? Is the answer to that the same? Or are those two different questions, your opinion? Where are you going long term with this Panthers offense right now?

14:33 It's funny, numerically, Debro gave the number 6.5 and I had in my head 6.4, so I guess we're on the same track. Yeah, so Bryce is averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt and his career average is 6.1 yards and his passer rating this year 30, more than 30 points above his career passer rating of 82.5, this year 113.3.

14:57 I don't think obviously Bryce Young can sustain this level of play, but I think he's going to be better than the career averages have been. Maybe he's turned a corner. And I will say like the, the Panthers offensive line has been really good. Just looking at some of the data they have over on FTN for offensive lines, Panthers right now, eighth and adjusted sack rates, ninth and adjusted line yards, which is a run blocking metric first in power success, which is percentage of runs on third or fourth down two yards or less to go. that achieved a first down or touchdown, also includes runs on first and goal or second goal when the two-yard line are closer.

15:38 Panthers number one there. So that offensive line's been performing really well. That's going to help Bryce Young and the running game.

15:45 Do you feel, Fitz, like Bryce Young, to whatever degree you have belief in him, is it more, are you thinking in terms of, as a franchise quarterback or as a, maybe a viable in a super flex league fantasy quarterback starter, or is it more not for him, but for his ability to make Ted or O McMillan and Jalen Coker and Chuba Hubbard fantasy viable.

16:07 Startable and super flex more about his ability to make those guys viable. I mean, he's got good offensive line, really good weapons, got a couple of willow trees. It can throw two in the end zone with Ted or O McMillan and Darren Waller. Um, and, and Coker has proven to be really, really good. So like he's definitely being helped by the supporting cast, but he's unquestionably played better than he had earlier in his career.

16:33 Can y'all imagine what this offense would also look like if we had Chris Brazel healthy?

16:38 I mean, it's size with these past. I know. Yeah.

16:42 Right. Strong doesn't have to see over the offensive line because again, to your point, he's got Redwoods running across the tree.

16:47 Like I look up.

16:48 And there he is.

16:50 Yeah.

16:50 Oh, man. All right.

16:52 Let's go to Jets at Lions. Could be a really fun game here. This one is in Detroit. Like I said, Brees Hall and Garrett Wilson are two of my favorite buys, as talked about on the trade show earlier this week with Erickson. Really in the whole league right now. Both are ranked inside the top 12 of their positions this week.

17:09 So I ask you, who has the bigger day against this Lions defense between Brees Hall and Garrett Wilson? Debro?

17:16 I think it's Brees Hall. And I'm not saying that Garrett Wilson is going to have a monster day. I think that the production and the target share market share that A.D. Mitchell has had could make this where it's not leaning in Mitchell's favor, but he's the downfield threat. Lyons secondary sucks. If they don't, if Geno Smith can be get some clean pockets in this game, because we know, again, going back to pressure sensitive quarterbacks, how sensitive Geno is, there's more volatility on that side where it's like, dude, Brees Hall is going to get 20 touches. We saw last week he is game script proof. The Lions have not been good at stopping the run, like ninth highest rushing success rate allowed, third most yards before contact per

17:55 attempt allowed. So I'll just lean on Brees Hall because I know regardless of Geno's play or not, he's getting 20 touches. If the game script goes sideways, the Lions start racking up the points and stuff like that, then he's going to get a.

18:06 Crap ton of targets. Brees Hall, RB 11 in ECR for the week. Garrett Wilson, wide receiver 9. And that's with Christian Watson ahead of him, who's already played. It's a really wide receiver eight amongst the guys who haven't played. Fitz, who of those two do you like better this week?

18:23 I like both. And as Debro pointed out, this is not a bad run game matchup for Brees Hall. I am going to go Wilson here. And yeah, I know Adnai Mitchell has been a big factor. He has out-targeted Garrett Wilson 15 to 14 this season. And right now, A.D. Mitchell leads all NFL wide receivers in air yard share at 59.4%. But Garrett Wilson has a perfectly fine air yard share of 37.5%. Wilson and Mitchell pretty much account for all of Geno Smith's air yards. And the Lions defense is just so bad. I mean, Tyler Shuck had 410 passing yards and three TDs against Detroit in week one.

19:00 Week two, Josh Allen, 327 yards and four touchdowns. without brian branch and kirby joseph the lions defense uh the secondary is just.

19:11 Awful and avante maddox now.

19:13 Avante maddox yeah yeah by the way earlier earlier this morning i don't know if you saw there's quote some concern ad mitchell is limited in practice today he caught his finger on a jersey yesterday looking at twitter right now this is from the espn's jets reporter and He used the phrase, quote, some concern, and Aaron Glenn said that Mitchell would be limited in practice today.

19:37 If there's any way that he misses this game, then also juxtaposed with the Mason-Taylor news, I will sneak in some Kenyon Sadiq love here, because he would become the full-time guy, or at least I think he's going to run a higher route share than Jeremy Ruckert. And if A.D. Mitchell is limited or out of this game, then I think we're going to like Sadiq. I think we'll probably be competing with Brees Hall probably for like second and third option in the passing attack.

20:01 Isaiah Williams might even be playable.

20:03 By the way.

20:04 Just quickly, do you guys agree with what I was saying about on the trade show this week that these are two very good guys to buy right now? I don't even want to use it from high to low, just guys to buy right now at cost. I like investing in both of them.

20:17 Week three and week four going against detroit and chicago.

20:20 The whole schedule really get the browns after that pretty good but yes the next two weeks especially are hold.

20:26 Up a dead start there boys i'm walking the schedule patriots then they get the dolphins and the raiders after that.

20:32 Oh this this is what we talked about on tuesday yeah it's like remarkable and then even like middle of the season the chargers defense hasn't looked good buffalo's on there miami again like there are some really choice matchups to come in the future.

20:44 You called it out like what last week about Gino Smith being an awesome streamer and stuff like that.

20:49 And a lot of good, mainly these two weeks, you mentioned a couple of defenses that might not be total pushovers. So, but we'll talk about those defenses later.

20:56 We'll get to them later. If you wanted to win a Todd Gurley signed Rams Jersey, then this is your shot. All you have to do is subscribe to the tailgate YouTube channel right now, drop a comment below on any video. And that is it. We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So make sure to turn on those notifications so you can know when new videos are up and to claim your prize. All right. Game number four on the slate. Texans at Colts. Key question here fits.

21:19 David Montgomery was RB6 in week one and RB48 in week two. Which end of that spectrum will he be closer to in week three against the Colts?

21:27 I would err on the high side. The Colts run defense might be the worst in the league. Um, they've given up the second most rushing, uh, rushing yards to running backs and the second most receiving yards to running back so far. Monty's got three touchdowns, only 70 rushing yards so far averaging 2.7 yards per carry. I think the bigger concern is that David Montgomery has only played three more snaps than Woody Marks this season. So it's been kind of a split backfield, but the Colts defense is just so bad. And I, like, I think they have the worst linebackers in the league and this is going to be a run defense we should target in fantasy all season.

22:03 Debro, do you feel like David Montgomery in the scope of the season is going to be more of a like touchdown or bust type of running back? I mean, through two weeks, that's essentially what he's been. He just happened to get three touchdowns in that first week. So it looks really good. Or do you expect better efficiency from him moving forward and just to look like a better runner against maybe easier defenses?

22:21 I don't know what the efficiency is going to look like because it's a bigger offensive line question. And just the archetype of running back to David Montgomery is like he needs that offensive line to give him some space. to kind of get into the second level and create, and I don't know how much he's going to get that for the totality of the season. What I would say for Montgomery, my bigger thing, and why I am with Fitzy and I'm high on him this week, is the unfortunate thing we saw from last week is he's apparently going to be more game script sensitive than I think any of us thought he was going to be like, and the fact of like his rushing volume went away.

22:53 Woody Marks played more when they were trailing. Like the best thing that can happen for David Montgomery is this Houston Texans defense wakes the hell up and looks like some semblance of what we thought we were going to get into, like get this year that we've seen over the last few years, this defense has been horrid. Their secondary looks lost. The pass rush hasn't been amazing. Like, They need to wake up. If they can wake up, we can get a lot of positive game scripts, which is how I'm projecting this game because I'm not scared of the Colts. Daniel Jones looks like 2025 Kirk Cousins in the freaking pocket. He can't move. The velocity on his throws isn't amazing. And the Colts are playing a

23:30 passing attack, dink and dunk down the freaking field. So can that work versus the Houston Texans pass rush? Sure. But if the secondary in this defense wakes up, they can be smothering and they're not going to sustain drives and they're not going to do anything. So A lot of positive game scripts, I think, is coming for David Montgomery.

23:45 And like Fitzy laid out here, it's a fantastic matchup on the ground. So I think that he's closer to the week one version of David Montgomery. But until this defense wakes up, we're going to see volatility in this backfield.

23:56 So that's a nice transition into, I sort of threw a second question into this matchup about that defense. Is this the week that the Houston defense finally looks like the juggernaut we expected it to be before the season, given both what we think about the defense and what we think about this matchup, Fitz?

24:10 Yeah, it's too good. for the Texans not to have the boa constrictor defense we thought they'd have. The personnel is too good. What's going to be interesting, though, Worm, is if the Texans can stop Jonathan Taylor, who has historically wrecked the Houston Texans. Ten career games against Houston. Taylor has run for 1,075 yards and has scored 10 touchdowns, won a game. And if you take out his 26-yard rushing day against the Texans in Week 18 of last season, when the Colts had already been eliminated from the playoffs and were playing without Daniel Jones, Taylor's averaged 116.6 rushing yards a game and 5.4 yards per carry against the Texans over his career. But again, totally different Texans outfit

24:56 now than when Taylor first came into the league.

24:58 Yeah.

24:59 Debro, what do you think? You mentioned it when you were talking earlier. Do you think the defense does step up this week in a way we haven't seen this season?

25:06 I do because I think Daniel Jones looks horrible. He looks like a guy coming off an Achilles. And I think his lack of mobility and lack of arm strength and the way that they're running this offense right now because of the limitations of investing in a quarterback coming off of a freaking Achilles repair. Yeah, I think Houston gets going.

25:26 All right, let's go to the next game here. Patriots at Jaguars. I want to talk about the quarterbacks in this one. Drake may and Trevor Lawrence, both finished outside the top 24 quarterbacks or something outside the top. Oh no, it was 24 week to Drake. May was QB 23 in week one. So Drake may has two very bad games.

25:41 Trevor Lawrence, one bad game out of the two he's played so far this year, which signal collar do you think bounces back in this matchup? May Lawrence, both or neither deeper. I'll start with you.

25:52 I think both. I think both can, um, I'm a little bit more pessimistic about Trevor Lawrence only because it seems like Carlton Davis is going to be back. I think like he would have had a much easier day if Carlton Davis wasn't going to play in this game, but two full practices as a time of recording this Trevor Lawrence also has the highest turnover where the play rate in the NFL right now amongst quarterbacks. And now I know that we got a two game sample and that a lot is not because he faced the Browns is because he faced the fricking Broncos. But again, It's still noteworthy when you're going against the Patriots' pass defense.

26:27 I do think that both these quarterbacks can get going in this game, though. You look at the Jags' pass defense. They haven't been amazing, giving up the 14th highest pass and success rate, the highest explosive pass rate. It's good matchups. If Romeo Dobbs can get free, it's quietly a really strong matchup for Hunter Henry. So I think the answer for me is both.

26:50 Fitz, May, Lawrence, both or neither. For what it's worth, Lawrence, QB 8 in ECR this week. Drake, May, QB 12.

26:58 I tend to think both. And I'm way higher on consensus than May. I think I've got him, QB 8. And I'm sensing way more panic for May than for Lawrence. But here's the thing about May. Seattle in week one, toughest pass defense in the league. Seattle just held the Cardinals to a game where they did not have a 10-yard completion. They didn't complete a pass for 10 or more yards. That has not happened since it was replacement players in the strike year of 1987. And then Drake May was so terrible in week two that he averaged 9.5 yards per attempt against the Steelers. And I'm being facetious, of course. May had 22 pass attempts versus the Steelers because he didn't need to throw because the Pittsburgh offense

27:47 is so broken. And, you know, the Patriots won 20 to three and didn't have to stomp the accelerator at all. So I don't think people should worry about May. Really tough matchup in week one and then just didn't have to throw in week two. Yeah, he doesn't have A.J. Brown, doesn't have Keishon Booty around anymore, but I think he's going to be OK. He was always a spread it around guy last year. And I think he's going to continue to do that and start to pick up the pace.

28:15 May is another player. I mean, maybe just because he's a big name, you know, MVP runner up last year, all that stuff, maybe it's harder to get him, but another guy who his schedule looks really intriguing, uh, the next two months, basically, you know, Buffalo, Chicago, Miami, Detroit, green Bay. Like there are some really fun matchups, uh, moving forward for him. Um, Yeah, I think I tend to agree with you guys that we'll see generally like both can bounce back in this one. I think like Trevor Lawrence was just a quarterback that I really was going after a lot in drafts this summer. And I'm not coming off of that just because of one bad game in Denver. Drake May, I think you guys laid out reasonable cases for why it's been a slow start

28:58 and why that might change going forward. So yeah, we're all on the same page here. We can move on to the next game. Chiefs at Dolphins. We all expect the Chiefs to roll in this one. So let's take the opportunity to think about the bigger picture here Patrick Mahomes and the offense have looked very back this season, particularly in their most recent game. So I want to kind of know where you guys are ranking the following players rest of season. Mahomes, Walker, Kelsey, Rice, and Worthy.

29:21 We can take these one at a time. Fitz, I'll start with you. Where are you ranking Patrick Mahomes rest of season amongst quarterbacks?

29:26 QB 10, which might be too low, but there's a big gap for me between the first 12 quarterbacks and the qb2s and my homes is uh in the circle of trust there debra.

29:39 Uh qb8 but i'm with fitzy like i think low in qb1 is about right like i think there's just a large like wide scrum of like where do you think what do you think about brock purdy trevor lawrence deck prescott patrick my homes like a lot of the pocket passer type of guys I could bump up Mahomes if we see another performance closer to what he did in week two, because week one, he looked horrible. Week two, he was dialed in like that was the best version of Patrick Mahomes that I've seen in the last three seasons.

30:09 Yeah, it looks really it looks really good and really scary if you're a fan of an AFC team. He looked awesome.

30:16 All right.

30:16 How about Kenneth Walker, D-Bro?

30:20 Oh, Kenneth Walker.

30:20 Obviously it's going to be high.

30:22 RB3 behind only Jameer Gibbs and Bajon Robinson. That's where I'm at. And I want to be very particular about how I describe this. I do not think that he continues to get 25 to 30 touches per game. I don't think that that happens. Because just like we were talking about Mahomes, I think as Mahomes in this passing attack, if they keep performing like they did last week, We're going to see more passing volume back in this offense, and I think you're going to see more Emma Johnson, less Kenneth Walker in between the 20s in the sense of where Kenneth Walker– can be a 20-touch, a 22-touch player, and a large portion of that, which we've already seen.

31:01 Good Lord. Andy Reid running backs. It's all kind of back with Kenneth Walker in the passing game. I think we're going to see more of that. So I'm not worried about his health in the sense of I don't think this 30-touch workload is going to continue throughout the entirety of the season. So RB3 for me.

31:16 I should have mentioned, by the way, Mahomes, in consensus, rest of season rankings is QB9. Kenneth Walker is RB4, so just one spot lower.

31:23 Not good.

31:24 Then DeBrow has him. Fitz, where is Kenneth Walker for the rest of the season?

31:28 Running back four, behind the big three of Gibbs, Bijan, and McCaffrey. And you can make a case for putting him ahead of McCaffrey.

31:37 By the way, just in consensus, it's Taylor who is ahead of him, not McCaffrey.

31:41 Oh, really?

31:43 Yeah, that's weird.

31:45 I would easily put McCaffrey or James Cook ahead.

31:47 Of– It goes Gibbs, Bijan, Taylor, Walker, Cook, McCaffrey is the top six in order. And then Derrick Henry is seventh. In the consensus rankings. Okay, since you say you guys are both definitely up there on Walker. Travis Kelsey at tight end rest of season. Where is he at for you, Fitz?

32:03 TE8.

32:04 Yes! Hand-holding.

32:07 He's at tight end nine in consensus, by the way.

32:10 I could move him up to tight end seven. If Daniel Jones and the Colts keep looking bad, he's going to get a crap ton of volume. I'm not saying that I want the talent of Travis Kelsey at this point of his career over Tyler Warren, but the Colts offense looks a lot worse.

32:25 Rasheed Rice, that wide receiver, is rest of season what for you, D-Bro?

32:30 Much lower. You tell me where consensus is, and I promise you that I'm probably 10 to 12 spots lower than consensus. I don't understand what people are looking at with Rasheed Rice and they feel comfortable. So Worm, please tell me that he's a wide receiver too because I know he probably is in rest of season rankings, and I'm going to tell you how horribly wrong that is.

32:47 So a week ago he was wide receiver 18. He has dropped. He is now wide receiver 23, so still inside wide receiver.

32:53 Still not low enough. Not low enough. He's wide receiver– I've got him at wide receiver 31. I've got him at wide receiver 31 right now because– everybody's like, oh, he got a touchdown in week one and that helped his fantasy value. Okay, but he got no targets. Oh, in week two, he got 80 receiving yards. And again, so did Xavier Worthy and he got no targets. Does everybody realize Rasheed Rice is not in this high target voluming role that Kenneth Walker is now in that type of role now? He's not the drag artist. He's not getting a 30% target share in this offense. Rasheed Rice has a 9.5% target share. 9.5. That is wide receiver five type of market share usage. How is he a wide receiver two in ECR? How?

33:44 Fitz, where are you at?

33:46 I'm at consensus, but I got to drop that because I totally agree with Debro. I think I saw that right now Xavier Worthy has been targeted and more screen passes than Rasheed Rice has. The role has totally changed. And Kenneth Walker, this was my fear and the reason I didn't draft Rasheed Rice anywhere, just that he wasn't going to be needed for the same sort of role he's been playing in recent years. And that's kind of how it's played out so far.

34:14 Yeah, where he's basically been the running back catching passes out of the backfield, and now the gimmicky role is gone.

34:21 Speaking of Worthy, last one. Where is he rest of season, Dubra?

34:26 Oh, Xavier Worthy. I've got him in wide receiver four territory. I need to bump him up a little bit. I think he should be living somewhere in about the wide receiver three-ish range.

34:37 Yeah.

34:38 He's actually a wide receiver five in consensus.

34:40 Yeah, I've got him at four. I've got him at 50.

34:44 I'd like, I've got him at 42 right now.

34:45 Like, but you know, let me, let me ask you this fits because so in rest of season consensus rankings, Xavier Worthy is 51 wide receiver. 50 is Marvin Harrison jr. Who would you rather? That's too rough.

34:58 That's too rough.

34:59 I've got Marvin higher.

35:01 Okay. Really? Are you hoping for a trade?

35:04 Like they're really close. I, you have to be hoped.

35:08 For a trade because he's not a part of that offense. I believe in Marvin Harrison Jr. 's talent, despite everybody's social media clips out there. I just think that Arizona's screwing him over bad.

35:21 Yeah.

35:21 No argument.

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36:07 I will be below consensus. I can tell you that. I've got Cam Scadaboo at RB23. I don't know what to do with Malik Neighbors because I don't know if he plays. He got a full practice in yesterday and started out limited for the week, but I still don't know if he's going to play with the bum wing. Isaiah Likely, I've got a tight end nine. Neighbors will probably be somewhere in the wide receiver two-ish range. Um, when it's all said and done, if he does play, but I don't have a lot of, and that, that are the, those are the only fantasy viable players in this offense for me. Like I don't care about Darnell Mooney or Malachi fields or whoever Jameis is barely having a pulse and QB to land for super flex leagues.

36:52 Cause he looked God awful, uh, last week. Um, so yeah, you don't think you.

36:57 Might look better like with a full week of knowing he's going to be starting.

37:01 And I mean, he's been a backup in the NFL for how long and he just needs to prepare. Like, nah, I don't know, man. I don't, I don't know. There's also something to be said of it. You know, when the magic goes, it goes and he looked God awful.

37:16 This whole conversation might be kind of, so I'll tell you where I have these guys for now. Uh, Jameis quarterback, 28 scataboo. RB 22, neighbors wide receiver 18, Isaiah likely tight end 10. We might be moving all these guys to the point where we don't start any of them because they have a Nor'easter coming into the East Coast this weekend. And I know they're worried about what this is going to do to the Cubs Red Sox series in Boston. I don't think this stretches as far down the East Coast as Maryland. So the Commanders Seahawks game should be okay. But they're saying like the forecast for New Jersey on Sunday, rain, sustained winds of 13 miles an hour gusts of up to 27 miles an hour oh man that's that's pretty similar to the weather we

38:01 got in chicago last sunday for bears vikings and you saw not a lot of success in the passing game.

38:08 All i heard fitzy was whatever the total is still bet the.

38:12 Under yeah i would definitely agree with that does that make you interested in scataboo though fits just like hey they're gonna have to run the ball because they won't be able to throw or you're just like kind of avoiding everything.

38:22 I don't think this regime wants to feed Scataboo the way the last regime did.

38:27 No, they don't. No.

38:29 Yeah.

38:30 Oh man.

38:31 Yeah.

38:31 I was better off with day ball. I tried to get him traded to Tennessee so he can reunite with all the giants there in Tennessee.

38:38 I was aware of the weather stuff on the baseball side. I didn't even think about it for this game. So I'm glad you brought it up. The, the total, by the way, consensus odds on betting pros.com 38 and a half for this game.

38:48 It's going to be coming down. I think.

38:50 And by the way, just to say for your rankings, you are either at consensus or like one or two below consensus on every one of those players you mentioned for right now, obviously.

39:00 Yeah. And that's going to kind of move too, because we still, there's so much injury news right now, like where we're talking about all these players.

39:07 Yeah.

39:08 There's still so many situations left to be decided about quarterbacks, running backs, what happens with all of that, that everybody needs to make sure they're double checking all of our rankings like on Sunday.

39:19 Yeah.

39:19 All right. That's an ugly game. Let's move on to the next one. Bengals at Steelers might also be an ugly game, pretty much any game with the Steelers has been ugly so far. Bengals defense has looked much improved to start the season. while the Steelers offense has been completely dreadful. Just one offensive touchdown for this team through two games. Debro, are you starting any Steelers this week?

39:39 I will be starting Jalen Warren if he is the clear workhorse back. of that offense. I will be starting Pat Friermuth considering the usage. I don't know if we get Michael Pittman Jr. back, but if he is playing, I don't want to start him. I don't want to start Jeremy Bernard if he's out. I don't want to start DK Metcalf. DK Metcalf is going to get shadowed by DJ Turner. And just for everybody at home, last year in the two meetings, Metcalf got DJ Turner. He followed him on 78, 90% of his routes. Metcalf didn't surpass 50 receiving yards in Turner's coverage in either game, and he had zero touchdowns. I will not play DK Metcalf, but Jalen Warren and Pat Friar-Muth, sure.

40:18 Fitz, I knew you were going to bring up Friar-Muth if D-Bro didn't, just from doing the show yesterday. He is in consensus rankings tight end 17 right now. I know you have him quite a bit higher than that.

40:30 Yeah, tight end 10. Yeah. Or wait, maybe I've got likely 10 and Friar-Muth 11, whatever. I'm going to be moving Friar-Muth ahead of likely. Actually, I do have Friar-Muth 10 and likely 11. Yeah, it's just the Bengals allowed the most receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns to tight end last year with Al Golden as the defensive coordinator. Golden still the defensive coordinator and Dalton Schultz had 12 catches and 140 yards to the Texans for the Texans against the Bengals last week. And it seemed like. This Bengals defense has gotten a lot better. It just seems like the Bengals are perfectly willing to concede seven-yard throws over the middle to the opposing tight end. Like, they are happy with that. They'll bend a little bit on those

41:21 throws and sacrifice that for breaking elsewhere.

41:24 Go ahead. Sorry, sorry.

41:27 I was just going to say, so last year, Friar Muth had a game against the Bengals. Five catches, 111 yards, two touchdowns. And, yeah, just echoing what D bro said about Jalen Warren, like quite possibly no Rico Dowdle. Warren gets a huge share of the snaps carries and all those check down throws from the 42 year old quarterback who is doing pretty much everything he can to avoid hits.

41:51 To your point, I'll say is, um, I see your Colts worst linebacker group and I raise you the Bengals.

41:59 They're, they were lost last year cause they got thrown.

42:03 I don't know that they've been found.

42:04 Yeah. I think they're going to be better than the Colts this year, but I know last year that was obviously a lot of weak spots in the Bengals' defense, and that was the weakest, but I feel like those guys are going to be better this year.

42:18 To your point, though, the Friar Mutes should eat them alive in coverage, though. Yeah.

42:23 Would you guys start priming with over Colston Loveland just to get a sense?

42:28 Yeah. Yeah. I wrote it in the primer. I have no freaking clue what to do with Colston Loveland because this bears passing attack is doing idiotic things. And you talk about broken offenses like they're running the ball well. Uh, what the heck are we.

42:45 Doing as a, we got to throw out week two though. Like that was, that game was just.

42:49 Can we throw out week one too? Like, cause it calls them Loveland and Rome and Luther burden weren't good then too.

42:55 It was weird, but they were having so much success on the ground against the Panthers. Like they run the ball. I just, I don't think we've had circumstances under which we can fairly judge the bears passing. Yeah. I think it's going to be fine. I think Loveland's a great buy lower right now.

43:10 I don't disagree with you. I just don't know what the heck to do with him this week, considering what we've seen.

43:15 Don't play him with Keith.

43:17 I would co-sign. Another game in the early slate. Seahawks at Commanders, the team from Seattle, obviously, flying east for an early start in this one. I don't think it really matters. That defense is going to travel. So with no Jaden Daniels and facing the best defensive football, in my opinion, are you comfortable starting pretty much any Commanders this week, Fitz?

43:38 No, and I'm going to have to move these guys down. Right now, I've got McLaurin, wide receiver 29, and Diggs, wide receiver 32, and I looked at those rankings. I'm like, why do I have these guys that high? I don't really want to play those guys. I know Seattle sometimes gives up receiving production to running backs, so maybe you could start Rashad White in a PPR league, but I really don't want to start either Rashad or Ja'Cory Kroski-Merritt either.

44:05 That that's the one it's white in ppr and i saw devro nodding too yeah just just quickly on the receivers though like terry mclaren's wide receiver 31 in consensus stefan diggs is wide receiver 34 in consensus and man i'm looking here like rashad bateman is behind those guys i don't think i knew you were going there i mean with no zay flowers he's no you're not wrong i knew you were going there and i agree avian wicks is right behind bateman i would rather start wicks there's defense than i would those two and given the circumstances like Yeah, I think they should be even lower than they are.

44:35 I don't feel good about being above consensus on those two guys. That does not feel good.

44:39 I think that's correct. Yeah, Debro, when you look at this dash up, is it just White or is there anybody else you would even make a case for?

44:47 No, I'm not making a case for anybody else. It's just Rashad White. And it's just if you're in a PPR league and you need your running back room, which, again, going back to the injuries, is decimated, Rashad White is a PPR option. Because, again, yeah, Seattle does get eaten up by– receiving backs, 12 most receiving fantasy points per game this season. Last year, they quietly gave up the most receptions to running backs. And it just makes a ton of sense. Like we know the commanders are going to be playing catch up. Rashad White is the passing down back. The coverage structure, Seattle runs with too high and funneling everything underneath. it all just makes sense. Like he probably walks out of this. If he gets a

45:24 garbage time touchdown, maybe he's a PPR RB two of the week, but again, a flex, but I don't want to play anybody else. Like even Marcus Mariota and super flex. No, thank you.

45:36 McDonald defenses have always given up, you know, catches to the running back. So that's, that's not just like a structure thing. Yeah. By the way, just while we're on this game, Adam Peters said on local radio in D.C. earlier that they are not considering IR for Jaden Daniels. It sounds like surgery is not currently the plan. I mean, I find it baffling, honestly. Not that I'm a doctor or have looked at any of this stuff, but it just seems crazy that if every time he falls and his elbow lands the wrong way, it's susceptible to this, that maybe you would want to get surgery. But it seems like that's not the plan right now. that could change obviously a lot of moving parts. He's not playing this week. That's all we know for sure.

46:16 So good thing for Adam Peters and Dan Quinn. I mean, that might hopefully save their jobs or something, because I'm telling you, like if they, if Jay Daniel goes on the IR and stuff, they will not be back for a 2027 season. I promise you that.

46:28 I think Peters would be more likely to be back. I think Quinn would.

46:31 Be for sure.

46:31 Peters has been god-awful as a GM. I know, but his reputation, I think, is stronger than Dan Quinn's.

46:37 His rep and what he's actually done with his resume, they don't match.

46:40 Yeah, I'm not even disagreeing that. I just think usually you would maybe just see one and give him a chance to hire a different coach. But again, we'll see how it plays out. If you want to double your chances of winning your fantasy league, active fantasy pros users are twice as likely to win Sync your league for free and get fast, personalized advice for your lineup, waivers, trades, and more, all powered by over 100 experts. Get started at fantasypros.com slash myplaybook or on the Fantasy Pros app.

47:06 All right, let's get to the late slate here, guys. Smaller late slate because we have a pretty big early slate this week. Cardinals at 49ers. Key question here. Two weeks into his career, Jeremiah Love has yet to top 50 combined rushing and receiving yards. In a game, where are you ranking him against a 49ers team that has looked completely dominant so far this season, albeit against a team with weird travel stuff and the Dolphins as those two opponents, D-Bro?

47:32 Oh, Jeremiah Love. Where is he out of my rankings? I have him as an RB3, and when it all shakes out, that's where he's going to be, somewhere in that RB3 range. But if Jadarian Price, as we get word, he's going to be like a full go this week, I'm putting him over Jeremiah Love. As Travis HN sounds like he's going to be a full go this week.

47:50 I mean, maybe either one of the Patriots backs. I do not want to play Jeremiah Love at all. I don't want to play Tyler. I was here. One, it's the matchup to their usage is just so baffling and idiotic. I don't understand it. But to your point, Worm, the 49ers have given up the fifth lowest explosive run rate, the seventh fewest yards of contact per attempt. But Jeremiah Love threw two games as a 42% snap rate. He has a 32% route share. He's only averaged 12.5 touches, and this is despite him being a player that in the limited volume has 2.85 yards of contact per attempt.

48:28 You draft this guy fifth overall to put him behind Tyler Algier and just prove that you are all idiotic.

48:35 Do those stats Debro normalize early in the seasons, things like target share and those usage numbers, or does that tend to be susceptible to small sample size sort of early season flukes, depending on the game, or is that like usually pretty quickly, like this is likely what it's going to be going forward.

48:52 I mean, I would love to say the assumption of rational, it depends on it's every different team and how the players are playing. So every team is its own, you know, microorganism. But with this specifically, I don't know what they're going to do, man. Like, I mean, we scream the assumption of rational coaching all the time. You drafted the guy top five. He's crazy talented. If it's not related to an injury, then why is he leading the backfield?

49:19 It is related to it. an injury, though.

49:21 We know that definitively, though?

49:24 It's reasonable to conclude that they are maybe easing him in a little bit after the high ankle sprain last month, which we know is a pretty severe, basically is like, akin to an MCL sprain as far as the recovery time and being like full go. So I think it stands to reason he's going to get more work in the coming weeks.

49:45 And I hope so. Yeah, I, I, I hope so. I really do hope so because what they're doing right now makes zero sense.

49:53 And just by the way, he is RB 25 in consensus and fits before I get your ranking here. Just to mention, Nick Bosa will not play in this game. He pulled his calf during Thursday's practice and is now expected to miss a few weeks. And Schefter tweeted like four minutes ago as of when we're taping this, the 49ers now are leaning toward not placing Bosa on injured reserve in part because they're running out of injured reserve spaces, which is remarkable here before week three has even gotten fully underway. Fitz, where are you at on Jeremiah Love in this matchup? RB24.

50:28 RB24.

50:29 I mean, I think the talent is evident and the role is going to continue to grow as he does get closer to 100% after that high ankle sprain. Like, I really think that's partly why the usage has been what it has been so far.

50:41 It's kind of funny, Fitz. I feel like this whole episode, not that you're not giving great analysis or, you know, cogent insights or anything, but it's a bit a lot of like, Yeah, I'm basically in line with consensus when any of the specific ranking questions that you've been very aligned either off by just a spot or two on a lot of these.

50:58 Or the consensus is aligning with Fitzy. Can we just throw it that way? You know what?

51:02 That's a much better way to frame it.

51:04 Fitzy's setting the market.

51:05 That's a much better way to frame it.

51:08 That's the reality.

51:09 Fitzy's top 50 finish in the rankings contest.

51:10 Yeah.

51:16 I know you weren't thrilled about that on the Wednesday show, so I had to bring it up again. Mayer crushing it. We should really all be following him so far this season. I can't believe I just said that out loud. Let's go to the next game. Vikings at Buccaneers with Kyler Murray returning. Injuries in the Vikings running back room and a very messy Tampa Bay offense facing a chaotic Brian Flores defense. This game to me feels very hard to predict.

51:39 So just make a prediction. Give me a final score and a guess at who will be the player of the game in this one, Fitz.

51:46 I always like the, um, spots where it's like sort of the fat, happy team against the wounded, desperate team. So I'll take the wounded, desperate Buccaneers here, 21, 20, and I'll go with Bucky Irving as player of the game.

51:58 21, 20 and Bucky Irving. Um, I don't have it pulled up here. I want to check what the total is. And that would be, Oh, if total is 42 and a half. So that would be, uh, under there. Uh, Debra, how do you see this one playing out?

52:11 I was going to go like 21, 18, and I'm also going to take the Buccaneers here. Um, and to your point worm, but yeah, I, this game feels like there's such a wide range of outcomes with, with how both of these defenses are so blitz happy. Uh, the Vikings do not give up a ton, but if you look at their metrics, they, they, their success rates versus rushing and passing are extremely low, but dude, when they give up big plays, Oh baby, they are both top 12 in explosive pass rate and rush rate. Like when they give it up, they give it up. So I think that that, leads to a lot of volatility. And I'm going to go with Fitzy on this one for Bucky Irving. And just for context here, yeah, Minnesota's given

52:51 up the fifth highest explosive run rate and the 12th most yards before contact per attempt. They have specifically been exposed on gap runs and in a very limited sample, Bucky Irving on gap runs this year, 6.9 yards per carry.

53:06 Wow.

53:07 So you guys are very aligned on this one. Bucky is RB 18 this week. Is that too low?

53:11 It's too low.

53:12 It's funny that the Minnesota defense, the run defense, the stats are that so bad when that they're so bad when they face the Packers in week one. Yeah.

53:21 Great point. Let me just throw out, just if you're looking at bed and pros.com, since we're talking about Bucky, his total consensus odds for your rushing yards is 57 and a half first touchdown score plus six 25 rushing attempts. 14 and a half is the total. Fantasy points over under is 13. These are all different bets you can see on bettingpros.com. Anytime touchdown, by the way, plus 135.

53:47 Any of those stand out to you, Fitz, since you like Bucky so much?

53:50 I like to overrun the rushing yardage.

53:51 Same. Same.

53:54 Oh, yeah.

53:55 Yeah, weird game. I'm interested to watch it, but yeah, I just feel like this could go in so many different directions that I really just don't know. So it's kind of funny that I asked this question on this game because I felt like, oh, who the heck knows what this is going to do? And then you guys both basically gave almost the same answer of how you see this playing out. So maybe it is a little more obvious than, than I thought. Let's go to another game that I'm actually like weirdly, very excited to watch Raiders at saints. Tyler Shuck has already been a top eight quarterback twice this season. He has been a top 12 quarterback in six of his last eight games, dating back to week 13 of last year. And in the

54:30 only two games that he wasn't a top 12 quarterback, he was still no lower than QB 16 in those two games. So he has given you both floor and ceiling feedback. Dating back to, like I said, week 13 of last season. With all that said, where are you guys ranking Shuck both this week and rest of season, Debra?

54:49 This feels like Stockholm Syndrome. Have you been Saints-pilled?

54:53 I said last week. I think the Saints are good, man.

54:55 I think they're a good team. They're fun.

54:57 I'm in on the Saints.

54:58 I have to admit. I got Shuck at QB eight for the week and rest of season. And just for everybody at home, he is QB five and fantasy points per game rest of season. I've got him at QB. I kind of go back and forth somewhere in the QB 10 to 12 range, like somewhere around the book between Drake major golf, somewhere in that type of area code bits.

55:24 I've got him QB 12 this week, QB 14 rest of season. I know that seems pessimistic, I just got to remind people that he had a 410 yard day against the Lions in week one after they fell down into a 21-0 hole. And right now he's second in the league in pass attempts. And he's going to be way up there in pass attempts because Kellen Moore likes to push the pace. And, you know, Shuck adds value with his legs. I think he's good. I think he's a viable starting quarterback in fantasy. But the Raiders are not.

55:57 the easiest matchup. And I know people think of Las Vegas being this pushover matchup. They have the second lowest opponent passer rating right now behind only the Seahawks. And the Raiders have only given up one TD pass. And I mean, they can get after it with the pass rush. We know that. So like, I don't think this is a cakewalk for Tyler Shuck. Oh, and by the way, can I, can I give you guys a fun factoid about this game? They mentioned this on the athletic football podcast.

56:25 And I guess, Saints head coach Kellen Moore dropped this himself. Kellen Moore and Kirk Cousins were senior bowl teammates in 2012. Oh, my gosh.

56:36 That is amazing.

56:38 That's dating Kirk Cousins more than it is Kellen Moore. That makes Kellen Moore look like a young man and Kirk Cousins.

56:44 Oh, my gosh. That is hilarious.

56:48 Oh, my gosh. I didn't see that coming.

56:51 For what it's worth, Fitz, you're not that low in Chuck relative consensus. QB 10 in consensus for this week and QB 13 for rest of season rankings. So you're one spot lower in one of those and two spots lower in the other. So you're not that far off you. And if you are fading a little bit relative to consensus.

57:07 The only thing I want to add on the Raiders defense, they could be for real. The only counter that I have for this Fitzy is we're only two games in and they played Malik Willis and Justin Herbert and that's true abomination of an offense. So I think they could be legit, but, But we need a bigger sample size.

57:22 I do think that this is a very good litmus test for them, though.

57:25 Max Crosby does look like he's an MVP.

57:27 Oh, dude.

57:28 He is mad, mad, mad, baby.

57:31 The Raiders got to be glad. So sad. You think he'd be a good Raven, huh, Worm?

57:38 The Ravens didn't undo that trade because of this year. It was because of long-term concerns. I think everybody expected him to be good this season. I'm not surprised at all. He does look awesome.

57:49 Yeah.

57:50 By the way, just like in terms of thinking about the Saints too, like Chris Alave, rest of the season's wide receiver seven, that feels, if anything, maybe too low. I mean, if he's healthy, it's awesome.

57:58 He's so good.

58:00 Yeah. Which certainly helps Shuck. All right. Let's go to week 13. Speaking of the Ravens, Ravens at Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro in Brazil. I was not sure at certain points in this week if they were actually going to play there. There have been rumors about the field. They are in Brazil. So this game is happening there.

58:15 I am terrified by the quality of this field and having my team play on it and possible injuries to come. I really hope Zay does not play. Obviously, this offense looks a lot different without him, but I do not want to risk it. All that being said, this is the highest total of the week. It was 52 and a half last time I looked. I'll double check while we're talking to see if it's still at that level.

58:35 But 52 and a half. Is there anybody that you would actually fade in this matchup, whether it's because of the field or just because it's a high number and you feel like the game might not go that way? Or are you guys trying to start as many players as possible from this game? Debra, I'll start with you.

58:49 I'm starting everybody that I want. Okay. Zay Flowers is not going to play. He still hasn't practiced this week. The Baltimore Ravens are not going to be stupid enough to put him on this freaking field with a hamstring issue. So I'm just going to get that out of the way.

59:00 He did travel to Brazil just to– by the way. So it's not official yet.

59:03 High-fiving teammates after they get touchdowns.

59:05 I agree with you. I'm just pointing out that he is there.

59:08 Yeah, no. I just don't see a world where he plays in this game. But to that point, are you playing Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Rashad Bateman, and Mark Andrews equivocally? Hell yes. Are you playing all your usual Cowboys and the only– guy that I think like usage and touchdowns and stuff that maybe I'm kind of like on the fence just because his usage sucks and you're playing touchdown or buses, Jake Ferguson, but in a game with a 52 fricking total, he probably gets a touchdown and the red zone equity is there. So yeah, this is fire up all your usual Cowboys and Ravens.

59:39 By the way, that total has actually gone up. It's 53 is consensus on bed. You can find it at 53 and a half in some places, but the consensus is wild. So very, very high total. Yeah, I guess it's the better way to frame this isn't like, you know, are you sitting anybody? It's are you fading anybody relative to consensus? But still, most of the guys you're starting, if you have them.

59:58 Yeah, Debro covered it perfectly. And the only thing I'll add, there was a good tweet by Pat Thorman of Establish the Run today. He pointed out that Christian Parker's Dallas Cowboys defense sort of predicated on the Vic Fangio defense. And Lamar Jackson has historically ripped up Vic Fangio defenses.

1:00:17 So could be a big Lamar game this week.

1:00:19 You also– I think it was you. Sorry if I'm putting words in your mouth, Fitz. But I think yesterday on the show you might have mentioned that when field conditions are bad, that can sometimes benefit the offensive players because offensive players know where they're going. Defenders have to react and not being able to plant and cut as well.

1:00:35 You might see guys kind of slipping around a bit. And it's the sort of thing where if Lamar is comfortable on this field or if Zay was playing, for example, those quick twitch guys who are really shifty and change direction quickly– can be a problem to deal with. So that kind of leans into the higher total here in the offenses.

1:00:51 Yeah, that's how it was in week one of 2025 when the Packers and Eagles played in Brazil. There were a lot of big games and big plays in the passing game that day because a lot of defenders started getting shaken by quick cuts by players wide receivers so yeah i remember i think jayden reed had a couple of touchdowns in that game the eagles aj brown i think went off in that game um wouldn't surprise me like i'm not betting the under on this game i'll tell you that.

1:01:21 I just want to lay out a really quick scenario boys trying to stop a train on any type of field, much less when you try to dig your heels in against Derrick Henry.

1:01:31 I was just going to say, I don't know if we talked about Derrick Henry or not. Obviously, nothing actionable. Everybody's starting to have him, but he's RB5 in consensus this week. That feels too good.

1:01:39 I mean, dude, he could run for a buck 50 in this game.

1:01:42 Yeah.

1:01:42 Yeah.

1:01:43 I do not disagree. Like if, if listen, as a Ravens fan, if they get out of this game with no major injuries, that's all I can ask for.

1:01:49 Well, you just need Declan Doyle to hopefully call rushing plays. Who knows if that happens?

1:01:53 He did say he had a quote earlier this week. He goes, yes, I'm aware. Derek Henry is on this team. Cause he was getting.

1:01:58 Good for him. He's doing his best Todd Monken. Hooray.

1:02:01 Yeah. We'll see what happens in this week. All right, let's go to Sunday night football Rams at Broncos. Key question here. Devante Adams and Jalen Waddle, both bounced back with big games in week two after poor performances in In week one, which wide receiver has the better week three in this game? And by the way, when I put this question together, it was unclear on Puka. Still, we don't have definitive anything on if he's going to play or not, but it seems like it has trended in the wrong direction here. So maybe that plays into your pick in this one. Fitz, who do you expect to have a better week three, Devontae Adams or Jalen Waddell?

1:02:33 I'm assuming Puka is going to be out. Right now, and taking people behind the curtain, I was doing my first pass at Week 3 rankings while Devontae Adams was destroying the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. So I may have been influenced by this. Right now, I've got Devontae wide receiver 15, and I have.

1:02:57 Sorry, Jalen Waddell, wide receiver, 17. So tell me, despite the likelihood of a Patrick Sertain Jr. shadow on Devontae Adams, so is this a mistake, D-Bro?

1:03:09 I have them back-to-back. I have Waddell at wide receiver 12, and I have Adams at 13. The only reason that I have Waddell ahead of Adams is exactly what you just laid out with Patrick Sertain.

1:03:21 Now....

1:03:23 In all of this, do I think that Sean McVay does smart things with Devontae Adams because he's freaking Sean McVay and he doesn't fall into the same potholes that all the other idiots in the league do and just put Adams on an island? And if he is basically your entire passing attack or the clear one, is he going to move him into the slot and get him off of Sertan?

1:03:43 Yes.

1:03:44 But we do have to kind of nerf his line just a little bit because he is going to see Sertain some, and he's going to play on the boundary some. So that's where I split the difference between these two guys, where I have Waddle, who was the clear alpha that we were all kind of hoping he'd be in week two, and I think that that's his role projected forward. I have Waddle one spot ahead of Devontae Adams only because of Patrick Sertain. That's the only reason.

1:04:11 So where did you say they are ranked? You said you have Waddle ahead.

1:04:13 Wide receiver 12 and 13.

1:04:14 12 and 13, okay. Devontae Adams is wide receiver 12 in consensus. Jalen Waddle is wide receiver 15 in consensus rankings.

1:04:24 We're all kind of living in the same neighborhood.

1:04:26 And by the way, again, that's with like Christian Watson, Drake London are still in there. So it would be a little bit higher if you remove the guys who have already played. Yeah, I think that's fair. You know, Devontae Adams, it's just– If Puka's out, and by the way, the Are They Playing tool on FantasyPros.com gives Puka a 4% chance to play, which is the same as Zay Flowers and Nico Collins, guys that we don't expect to play.

1:04:49 He has game in practice of last week. It seems incredibly unlikely that he's going to play. So yeah, it's hard to watch what we saw last week and not have Devontae Adams pretty high. Assuming Puka doesn't play, just very quickly, I didn't write this question down, but Terrence Ferguson, how high would he rank for you guys if Puka is out fits?

1:05:09 Probably right now I've got him tight end 17. I don't know how much higher I can move him up. Like I just.

1:05:17 Terrence Ferguson versus Colston Loveland, Fitzy. Who are you starting?

1:05:21 Right now I've got Loveland higher, but I might have to get Ferguson ahead of Loveland.

1:05:25 I just moved him in real time above Colston Loveland because how I'm projecting the game. And the big thing that I, because I was very low on Ferguson walking out of last week, only in the sense of, is this truly replicable for, And the thing that when I got to the primer and I dove into the numbers, looking at when that game was close in the first three quarters of the game, it's not just that. OK, fine.

1:05:48 He had the clear number two target chair. He was going to use a crap ton. It was the fact that he had a 71 percent route share. That makes me think like, OK, dude, like this isn't just maybe just one week. Maybe he just is the clear dude. And the overall numbers take it away because in the fourth quarter, they're just running the ball. They take him off the field. They don't need him. Yada, yada, yada, yada, yada, yada.

1:06:10 So I think that at least for one week, yeah, the Terrence Ferguson show is definitely– I want to buy tickets to that. And I feel good about it.

1:06:19 I had a listener reach out to me and ask Terrence Ferguson if Puka's out or Juwan Johnson. And for me, I did say Ferguson pretty easily. Ferguson would be probably like– top eight ish for me. If, if, if I knew if Ferguson's healthy and Puka is not like, I, I am just very, I don't, I don't mind that there's a chance I'm out over my skis. I kind of want to be out of Terrence Ferguson.

1:06:41 The other thing is going back to the Devante Adams of all of this, how we're projecting this game. If certain is on Adams, the ball has to go somewhere. So. Yeah. we're not projecting a crap ton of like Jordan wedding.

1:06:55 Right now is lower in consensus than Aranda Gadsden, Harold Fannin, Mark Andrews. Like, yeah, I I'd rather start for example, all those guys, if I knew who goes for sure out, which we were expecting him to be out. So I want to throw that out there also, because this is our Sunday night game. We're going to open up the prop bet cheat sheet and point out some of our favorite three and four star bets from the cheat sheet fits.

1:07:16 I'll start with you. What's your favorite one this week for Sunday night football?

1:07:19 Matthew Stafford under 243.5 passing yards. It's a three-star bet. That just seems like a tall order with no Puka Nikua.

1:07:28 Debra?

1:07:29 I'm actually going to go further down the cheat sheet. I'm going to go two-star action with this one. I'm going to go back to the Jalen Waddle Will. I'm going to take the over for his 55.5 receiving yards. Again, the Rams have been, they look much better in week two, but they have given up the 13th most fantasy points per opportunity to slot receivers. And I think Waddle gets fed again this week.

1:07:52 Those were our top prop bets for Sunday night football, courtesy of the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet. Find the best NFL player prop bets with the betting pros prop bet cheat sheet. Quickly compare lines from leading sports books against our daily NFL projections to uncover the props offering the most value. Make smarter prop betting decisions all season long at bettingpros.com slash props. All right, guys, one final game here. Monday Night Football, Eagles at Bears. I think we can go quickly on this one just because the Bears, obviously, there's this quarterback uncertainty. Assuming Caleb Williams doesn't play and knowing, at least last I saw, Tyson Bajent may not either. I'm not sure if there's been

1:08:25 an update there that I missed. How are you guys ranking Bears pass catchers against Philly, just given this crazy uncertainty at quarterback, D-Bro?

1:08:34 Luther Burden, wide receiver, 30. Roma Dunze, wide receiver, 39. Colston Loveland, uh, wider or tight end 15 right now. I is passing attack. I just, man, I, I don't know how you feel any comfort or sliver of like hope of like, or like confidence of starting these guys. Like, is that, sorry, let me rephrase that. Is there hope? Sure.

1:08:58 They're all crazy talented. And maybe they just do what they should have been doing the entirety of the season and run their offense through their best players. But what we've seen through two games has just been kind of a mess. So, I mean, I can't rank them aggressively, especially with the matchup here.

1:09:13 You know, Debra, you're actually ahead of consensus on– Really?

1:09:17 Oh, I've got to change that then.

1:09:18 Yeah, on both Burden and Adunze. Not on Loveland, but on Burden and Adunze.

1:09:21 I've got to change that. Not by a lot, but– I mean, I don't want to be above consensus. Well, the other part about this is, like, I've got Rashad Bateman behind Luther Burden right now. That'll move up. And there's some other kind of players, again, like moving ranks around with injuries.

1:09:34 What about Devon Vele or Luther Burden? They're back-to-back in consensus.

1:09:37 Yeah. I feel better about Bailey. I know his target volume and the Saints are passing at the second highest rate neutral script.

1:09:45 Yeah. Fitz, where are you at on these pass catchers? We've talked a lot about Colson Loveland, so let's focus on the receivers here. Where are you at on Burden and Odunze this week?

1:09:51 Burden wide receiver 38, or excuse me, Odunze wide receiver 38, Burden wide receiver 44. Yes, you might say I'm bearish on the Chicago receivers this week. I'll show myself.

1:10:05 Yeah.

1:10:06 So Burden played fewer snaps than Kalief Raymond last week. I don't know what's up with that. You know, it's reminiscent of last year when Burden was playing fewer snaps than Olamide Zaccheaus. But that was Burden's rookie year. And we thought we got the Luther Burden breakout late last season. So the usage is kind of confusing.

1:10:27 Did Ben Johnson sell all of his Luther burden stocks? I wasn't aware of the insider trading. I haven't been given the update. Uh, can anybody update me on that?

1:10:35 You are fits ahead of consensus on a doomsday. You are well below consensus on burden. You're like over 10 spots lower than consensus on burden. Would you, would you rather start fits Luther burden or Carnell Tate this week?

1:10:48 Uh, it's going to be the nor'easter and, uh, New Jersey, so I would rather start.

1:10:54 I got a better one. Denzel Boston.

1:10:56 Oh, well, see, the reason I didn't ask that one is because you talked about Boston yesterday.

1:10:59 I know, I know, I know.

1:11:00 I know you've already talked about this.

1:11:01 I know exactly where.

1:11:03 I'm setting Fitzy up here a little bit. Professional alley-oop.

1:11:06 Go ahead, Fitzy.

1:11:07 Denzel Boston.

1:11:08 Yeah, it's Denzel Boston for sure.

1:11:11 Is he still inside your top 30, Fitz, Boston?

1:11:13 Yes.

1:11:14 Yeah.

1:11:14 I had to give Fitzy a layup so he could start.

1:11:16 I know, I know. I shouldn't have stepped on it. Is Dontavian Wicks ahead of both of these guys for both of you?

1:11:21 Oh yeah.

1:11:21 In the same game.

1:11:23 He is the Wicks, like weirdly kind of lost snap and route chair last week, but he's ahead of burden for me.

1:11:30 Devante Smith, hamstring injury. Didn't practice. Yeah.

1:11:34 That's, that's, that's, that's such a bummer with the matchup against the bears defense.

1:11:40 Their outside corners are not bad though. It's like the, the slot where they're going to get murdered, the running game where they're going to get murdered.

1:11:48 But, I would only counter that with I think they're bad everywhere.

1:11:52 All right. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Thanks, everybody, for checking out our key questions for week three. Best of luck setting those lineups this week. For Fitz and Debro, I'm Ryan Wormley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football Podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts at fantasypros.com slash review or on Spotify.

1:12:17 Follow us on X, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com slash fantasypros.