Conflict and Diplomacy in an Era of Recklessness | Sir Malcolm Rifkind on 2050

Sir Malcolm Rifkind served as Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom from 1995 to 1997 and as Defence Secretary before that. He has sat across from Soviet ministers while a KGB double agent secretly briefed both sides, watched the Berlin Wall fall when nobody saw it coming, and has been banished from Russia by Putin personally for his criticism of the invasion of Crimea. I sat down with Sir Malcolm in London this January to talk about the next 25 years of conflict and diplomacy, and how to navigate a world where nobody cares about the old rules anymore.

Extended Show Notes: substack.com/home/post/p-192033568
Transcript: substack.com/home/post/p-192033862

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
01:05 Why Politicians Can’t Predict the Future
03:37 The Power of Double Agents in Spycraft
04:38 Social Media Diplomacy Was Inevitable
12:46 Soft Power is Dead
16:25 The Cult of Youth in Global Leadership
18:54 The West Must Think Long-Term to Survive
27:43 Technological Innovation Will Hurt Old People
30:58 The Chinese Will Eat Their Rich
38:11 Meeting Gorbachev and His Philosopher Wife
44:32 There Are No Good Guys and Bad Guys
46:46 Ukraine will Freeze Up like Korea, Kashmir, and Cyprus
47:55 Taiwan is More Important than Iran
53:23 How Smaller Countries Operate without Pax Americana
55:09 “The Chinese and the Russians Cannot Believe Their Luck” - on NATO Collapse
59:59 America May Not Be the Main Character in the Future

Sir Malcolm Rifkind is a British statesman who served as Defence Secretary and then Foreign Secretary under Prime Ministers Margaret Thatcher and John Major, and later chaired the UK Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee.

Forecast 2050 is a series about the next 25 years—and the builders, thinkers, and leaders shaping what comes next.

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