Adapt or Disappear! A Futurist’s Warning for Business Leaders | Mark van Rijmenam

By 2030 there will be two types of organizations: the ones that use AI — and the ones that won’t exist. In this episode of the Future Tax Podcast, Sebastian Thalhammer sits down with futurist and author Mark van Rijmenam to explore what real adaptability looks like in the AI era — beyond hype, beyond fear, and beyond “let’s just buy a tool” — and why the real challenge is rarely the tech itself, but the human side: fear, trust, incentives, and the ability to evolve fast without losing what makes an organization humane. We also connect these ideas to regulated industries like tax, accounting, and finance, where AI forces a new question on every professional and leader: What do you bring to the table when knowledge becomes a button?

In this episode:
• The “two types of organizations by 2030” thesis
• How to create momentum for change without waiting for crisis — and the 3E framework
• Why “tech-first transformation” fails (and what works instead)
• Transparency vs. black boxes: blockchain vs. generative AI
• Human-machine collaboration: where humans still win (and why it matters)
• Countries competing for business (Estonia, e-residency, frictionless setup) — and Europe’s challenge: regulation strength vs. innovation speed
• A 10-year “future check”: what signals a humane AI transition?

Chapters:
00:00 Cold Open — Use AI or Die
01:05 Intro — Mark van Rijmenam & why 2030 is a real line in the sand
03:10 Recurring patterns of successful people & organizations
05:10 Why change usually happens too late (external pressure vs. leadership)
07:20 The 3E framework: Educate, Experiment, Execute (and Empower)
11:10 The common failure mode: “buy a tool” transformation
13:20 Fear, jobs, and the human side of disruption
15:30 Transparency & incentives: who benefits from complexity?
18:00 Blockchain vs. GenAI: where transparency increases — and where it collapses
20:20 “Optimistic dystopian”: seeing the good, bad, and ugly of tech
23:10 Leadership reality: you can’t take everyone with you
25:05 Skills that rise in the AI era: adaptation, judgment, ethics, creativity
28:10 Human-machine collaboration: where professionals create new value
30:20 Australia vs. Europe vs. USA/China: who moves — and why
34:10 Borders, business mobility, and how countries will compete
36:10 Estonia example: e-residency & reducing friction
38:10 Can Europe become a “United States of Europe”?
41:00 10-year time travel question: what would Mark check first?
43:00 Closing thoughts & where to find Mark’s work

Links & resources

Guest: Mark van Rijmenam, futurist and author
Website: markvanrijmenam.com
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/markvanrijmenam
Books on Amazon (author page): amazon.de/stores/Mark-van-Rijmenam/author/B00H…

Mentioned in this episode:
• Futurewise: futurewise.tech
• Life 3.0 (Max Tegmark): penguinrandomhouse.com/books/550614/life-30-by…
• Estonia e-Residency: e-resident.gov.ee
• SAS Survival Handbook: harpercollins.com/products/sas-survival-handbo…
• Jamie Dimon profile (JPMorgan): jpmorganchase.com/about/our-leadership/jamie-d…

Host / Future Tax Collective:
Future Tax Index Assessment: futuretaxcollective.com/r/future-tax-index

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Future Tax Collective: futuretaxcollective.com
Alle Folgen mit Transkript: futuretaxcollective.com/future-tax-podcast
Tax Tech Radar: futuretaxcollective.com/future-tax-tech-radar
Future Tax Briefing: futuretaxcollective.com/future-tax-briefing
Sebastian Thalhammer: linkedin.com/in/sebastianthalhammer