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Global Data Pod Weekender: One-and-a-half-handed economists
While there are considerable crosscurrents on both the growth and inflation fronts, our views remain squarely focused on resilient global growth (with risks biased to the upside) and a 2H26 global inflation profile that downshifts to a stil
Global Data Pod: Growth upsides, Hormuz relapse, ECB pause and a new UK PM
Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks continue to discuss upside risks to growth (despite the renewed tensions in Hormuz), and they preview next week’s ECB meeting and a new UK PM. This podcast was recorded on 17 July, 2026. This communication is pro
Global Data Pod Weekender: Who, me? Worry?
In our forecast, which the consensus and market have come to over the past months (resilient growth, sticky inflation, hawkish central banks), the distinctiveness has diminished. However, this doesn’t stop us from worrying about things, or
Global Data Pod: Upside growth risks in the Euro area as Le Pen runs
This week, Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss whether the latest data out of the Euro area raise upside risks to growth and what the Le Pen court ruling means for France. This podcast was recorded on 10 July 2026. This communicati
Global Data Pod Weekender: Being there
An interesting week leads us to trim both upside but also downside risks. The balance is still in some question, with the potential for a little upside in the US and Asia. A spirited debate about the internal reaction function of Fed Chair
Global Data Pod: W. European Economics
Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy. This podcast was recorded on 02 July 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. For more information; please visit http://www.jpmm.com/research
Global Data Pod: Inflation monitor: Energy relief in sight, but core stays sticky
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Abiel Reinhart to discuss the latest inflation developments. Global inflation stepped up further in May, led by a third monthly jump in energy prices, tightening the squeeze on househol
Global Data Pod Weekender: One battle after another
The battle between the cycle and the energy shock is over, and the cycle has won. The second half will still face headwinds as some supports fade and some drags remain. But the cyclical lift taking shape looks strong, and conviction is high
Global Data Pod: W. European Economics
Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy. This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2026. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistribu
Global Data Pod: W. European Economics
Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy. This podcast was recorded on June 19, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit http://www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for impo
Global Data Pod Weekender: Shifting sands
Growth resilience through 2Q, hints of a deal to get oil flowing through the Strait, and signs of firming labor markets raise the question of shifting growth risks to the upside for 2H26. A reassessment of growth and inflation risks is, in
Global Data Pod Weekender: Let me hear your cycle talk
Despite the purchasing power squeeze from the Middle East conflict, the resilient cycle has dominated the macro landscape. Business spending on capex and hiring looks be broadening out, supporting our thesis that the cycle owes more to fadi
Global Data Pod Weekender: I’m okay, you’re okay
The global expansion is showing resilience to the energy shock as the pre-war cyclical lift we have anticipated is absorbing the loss of purchasing power. As we enter week 14 of the Strait remaining closed, should we feel better, worse, or
Global Data Pod: Inflation monitor: Energy boosts headline, while core pressures build
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports and signals for the path ahead. Surging energy prices pushed global headline inflation up further to 3.4%oya in April, br
Global Data Pod Weekender: Wobble, wobble
After the data in recent weeks underscoring the cyclical uplift in the global economy since the start of the year, this week’s DM flash PMIs and China data remind us that the Iran-related headwind is taking a toll and keeps downside risks a
Global Data Pod Weekender: Le coût de la vie
Inflation is playing a dual role at present. First, as a driver of spending that is boosting the cost of living via higher energy prices. Second, as a reflection of the momentum in the underlying cycle. Central banks are taking note of both
Global Data Pod: The Changing Chessboard of the South Caucasus
In this episode, we unpack how the war in the Middle East has been shaping the economic outlook for Azerbaijan, and why — perhaps surprisingly — it has generated some positive spillovers for Armenia too. We explore how Armenia continues to
Global Data Pod Weekender: Save poor Bob if you please
The global economy is approaching a crossroad as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the threat of reaching operational stress levels is now only a month away. The baseline and adverse scenarios are discussed. Two key cushions are 1) a
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Headline surges, core moderates
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Mike Hanson to discuss takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the outlook for inflation and central banks. March CPI reports delivered the anticipated spike in headline inflation as energy price
Global Data Pod Weekender: How bad could it get?
With the reversal of last week’s joint statement on opening the Strait of Hormuz and yet one more week closer to damaging quantity constraints, we reassess our adverse scenario for the outlook. Also, we consider what a Warsh Fed would look
Global Data Pod Weekender: Much ado about oil
While not out of the woods, the tail risk around the Middle East shock has faded materially for now. This brings the conversation back to tracking the same forces for growth and inflation discussed before the war, with a dash less growth bu
Global Data Pod Weekender: On the strait and harrow
The fragile cease-fire has not opened the strait or even ended hostilities fully, but the hint of an end keeps our outlook on a path for energy prices to hold steady before gradually drifting lower in 2H26. Absent downside tail risks, which
Global Data Pod Weekender: All’s unclear that ends unclear
The data in hand continue to paint a picture of solid momentum in activity at the start of the year. However, while today’s US payroll report was encouraging, the March global PMIs send a more cautionary signal that fear is building for whe
Global Data Pod Weekender: That's gonna leave a mark
The energy price shock is finishing its fourth week and the risks of material macro damage are rising. Until then the baseline of Brent oil prices that hold at current levels through midyear and then moderate by year-end makes for a lot of
Global Data Pod Weekender: Another week into the unknown
Strong momentum in 1Q leads to upward revisions but the ongoing Middle East conflict poses a larger downside to growth this year. Despite the growth hit, the boost to inflation and concern of second-round pass-through into core is complicat
Global Data Watch Weekender: Strait no chaser
The central risk to the outlook is whether oil begins flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Baseline views are background features, with scenarios of elevated, high, and surging oil prices the key downside risks to growth. With uncertainty
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre, Michael Hanson and Allan Monks to discuss global inflation developments heading into the Iran conflict; the first-order impact of higher oil prices on headline CPI inflation; the likelihoo
Global Data Watch Weekender: Pricing in conflict
The unexpected intensity of the war on Iran has rattled energy markets, threatening the global expansion. Timing and duration are as important as magnitude. Beyond the spillover of the conflict, activity is starting the year strong but labo
Global Data Watch Weekender: What could go wrong?
Incoming data support our call for a recoupling of weak job growth to solid GDP gains, driven by a fading of business caution. Beyond this near-term tracking, we consider the types of shocks that could disrupt the outlook further out—with a
Global Data Pod: Rare Earths
J.P. Morgan Global Research recently launched the Industry and Policy Thematics group. The aim of this group is to provide timely analysis of economy-wide industry and policy topics, including issues related to security and resilience. In t
