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Global Data Watch Weekender: Start me up
The year is starting with solid global momentum. Fading caution, firming in employment, signs of a broadening in non-tech related capex are prompting a bounce in industry—underscored by this week’s strong February flash PMIs. While the SCOT
Global Data Watch Weekender: Some signal, a lot of noise
There are significant elements of noise in this week’s key reports but we feel there is enough signal in these readings to increase confidence that recoupling is taking hold that lifts hiring this quarter even as consumer spending slows. US
Global Data Watch Weekender: It’s the job market, stupid
Fading caution that leads to firming global labor markets is the central rotation to keep the expansion going—away from balance sheets last year and toward labor income–driven consumer spending this year. Job market performance will also be
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Michael Hanson to discuss the latest global inflation developments. While fading last quarter’s slide in core CPI inflation, a phase of sticky inflation reflecting common global dynamic
Global Data Watch Weekender: Look inna yuh crystal ball, culture man
Strong global momentum at the start of the year is coming alongside rising commodity prices and a falling dollar. Is there a signal there? Can the EM ease even if DM rates stay on hold? Euro area inflation is coming off but growth is firmin
Global Data Watch Weekender: The shadow knows
Further year-end confirmation of a robust global consumer (outside China) supports the call that the expansion is weathering the various US policy risks. The key missing ingredient remains labor markets. The Fed will have to find its way am
Global Data Watch Weekender: The more things change…
Resilience in consumer spending has been an important foundation for growth in 2025. Absent a pickup in hiring, this cannot be sustained. Is the stage set for a change? Are last year’s US policies a last-year story? Are this year’s latest U
Global Data Pod Weekender: We’re back, baby!
The outlook for growth in 2026 is almost the same as for 2025. But the similarities end there, as growth in 2025 was imbalanced in a number of ways and these are unlikely to be sustained. We discuss these drivers and the needed rotation to
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Fade 4Q momentum slide
Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss the 2026 inflation outlook and what we are learning from the latest CPI reports. Led by a sharp moderation in service price gains, global core (and headline) i
Global Data Pod Weekender: Kicking the tires
Kicking the tires After two weeks off, the Weekender picks back up with a chat about the data in recent weeks and a probing of the upside and downside risks to the 2026 outlook. Two underappreciated issues for the US are also discussed: sti
Global Data Pod: Steppe Forward into Oasis: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan 2026 outlook
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have captured the attention of global investors in 2026. In this episode, Anatoliy Shal, Khamza Sharifzoda, and Nicolaie Alexandru dive into the factors fueling investor interest across Central Asia this year. The
Global Data Pod Weekender: Giving thanks for data
The data of activity past has begun. This week’s payroll report is only one month and stale (Sept), but on the margin tempers some downside risk. Combined with the bulk of data coming after the Fed’s Dec meeting, a pause looks sensible. Asi
Global Data Pod Weekender: The tick-tock of data watching
The balance of risks has been buffeted by resilient spending and survey data (the tick) and weak labor market data (and the tock). After a tick of solid 3Q GDP tracking and improving PMIs through October, we once again see the tock of even
Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t handle the truth!
Testing views, with continued uncertainties around the US labor market exacerbated by the government shutdown offset by better business surveys and improving activity data from Asia and Europe. Whether IEEPA tariffs are reversed may not cha
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor: Stuck at 3%
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the latest global CPI reports and the implications for central banks. We also delve deeper into the topic of tariff-induced inflation in the US. The global top-down message remains one of continue
Global Data Pod Edge: Africa is building back better
Gbolahan Taiwo and Katie Marney discuss the improving outlook for African economies. Fiscal, monetary and FX reforms, rebuilt external reserves, improving terms of trade, declining inflation, and monetary easing are putting African economie
Global Data Pod Weekender: Views from the Upside Down
After two weeks off, the Weekender returns with an exploration of the upside and downside risks to the growth outlook and the implications of each for inflation and central bank behavior. We also discuss the outcome of the Trump Asia tour.
Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t get there from here
Debate over the growth picture continues with global expenditure data through September showing resilience but the labor market a key area of weakness. Whether wealth effects will cushion the coming purchasing power squeeze in the US is unc
Global Data Pod Weekender: Just how symmetric are risks, really?
A case is made that the US floor is low but the ceiling is high, while the range for the rest of the world is narrower. A counter argument is that the bullish view of risk assets poses more of an asymmetric risk distribution for the US. Fis
Global Data Pod Weekender: If data falls in the woods…
The US shutdown leaves us with limited visibility at an important juncture in the global outlook. There are reasons to believe that the factors of lift are set to fade and that the factors of drag are intensifying. These are just narratives
Global Data Pod Weekender: Strong but shaky growth
The global expansion is now tracking a strong 3Q outturn, led by a robust increase in the US. The contrast of this strength with a near-stall in global employment is striking. Strong wealth gains and a falling saving rate are supporting con
Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: Food and energy add to sticky core
Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the latest CPI reports, the key drivers shaping the outlook, and implications for monetary policy. This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025. This communication is
Global Data Pod Research Rap: The growth effects of AI capex
Abiel Reinhart joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the recent surge in tech-related business investment, its impact on US growth, and what it might mean for productivity gains. Tech investment accounted for about a third of US GDP growth––and
Global Data Pod Weekender: A riddle wrapped in a mystery
Despite resilience through 3Q, we maintain that drags are building and still see recession odds at 40%. Heightened labor market risk was enough to get the Fed to cut this week and signal two more by year-end, even if not the start of a more
Global Data Pod Weekender: And if not now, when?
The debate builds over the resilience of the expansion, the health of the labor market, and the durability of the consumers. At the same time, questions arise over growth without jobs and the Fed’s responsibility to it. Speakers: Bruce Kasm
Global Data Pod Weekender: Weak payrolls, more Fed
Although this week’s business surveys sent an upbeat growth signal, the message from labor market reports in the US and elsewhere dominates risk assessments and the direction central banks will travel. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton T
Global Data Pod Weekender: Resilience and discontent
Despite a softening US labor market and a downshift in global industry and trade, the global economy looks resilient with the US tracking above-trend growth this quarter. With tariff and immigration drags still building, do we just delay th
Global Data Pod Weekender: Additional renovations on C-street
Global industry is stalling at midyear and we look for the soft patch to continue as the trade war bites and global capex growth softens. The Fed looks likely to restart its easing cycle in September. The addition of Stephen Miran to the Fe
Global Data Pod Research Rap: The shifting nature of China’s global inflation drag
Nora Szentivanyi and Tingting Ge discuss their latest research on China’s evolving role in global goods disinflation, the impact of higher US tariffs on China’s trade with the rest of the world, its export price competitiveness and the impl
Global Data Pod Weekender: Downside risks re-emerge
First-half resilience and robust risk markets have challenged our forecast for a sharp deceleration in 2H25 and tempered risks of recession. This week’s news on global industry and the US labor market affirms our call. Speakers: Bruce Kasma
