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John Mearsheimer - Offensive Realism· Staffel 1· Folge 2

Trump Must Admit Defeat In Iran | Episode 2

Montag, 3. August 2026 · 43 min

MP3

Shownotes

In today’s video I’ll explain why I believe a US victory is not possible and why the longer Trump waits to cut a deal with Iran, the worse the outcome for the US.

I’ll argue that Trump would have been wise to settle the war months ago, after the initial bombing campaign failed. Instead, he kept looking for some way to win the war or at least find an off ramp that would allow him to make the case that the US achieved some of its goals and did not walk away from the fight empty-handed. But that search is a futile enterprise. There is no war-winning strategy available to him.

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CHAPTERS

Introduction
The Current Situation in Iran
Overview of the Episode
The Four Goals of the US
The June 17 Memorandum of Understanding: A Surrender Document
Why Did our Strategies Fail?
The Five Possible Military Strategies
Strategy 1: The Discriminate Air Campaign
Strategy 2: The Indiscriminate Air Campaign
Strategy 3: Tit-for-Tat
Strategy 4: The Naval Blockade
Strategy 5: The Land Option
What the US Actually Did: The Timeline
Signing the MoU, Then Violating It
Why the Three Strategies Failed
Where We Are: America Has Lost
What Trump Must Do Now
The Iranians Hold the Cards
Summary & Conclusions

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MUSIC

"The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.

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