Iran Has Trump Over A Barrel | Episode 3

The aim of this video is to compare the terms of the new deal to end the Iran war, which key Iranian spokesmen have just described, with those of the June 17, 2026, Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Tehran and Washington.

I will explain why President Trump should have embraced the original MOU instead of walking away. The US has since lost significant bargaining leverage, and is now facing Iranian demands that far exceed those in the original MOU.

It is difficult to see how Trump can accept Iran’s demands, as that would represent a humiliating defeat for the US. At the same time, it is hard to see how he can reject them, as he has to open the Strait of Hormuz sooner rather than later and he has hardly any coercive leverage over Iran.

————————————————————
CHAPTERS

0:00 Introduction
0:32 The state of US–Iran negotiations
1:37 Background: Obama and the 2015 JCPOA
2:09 Trump tears up the JCPOA (2018)
3:03 Biden fails; Trump returns (2025)
3:57 The June 2025 "12-Day War"
4:33 The February 28th war
5:53 The 40-day bombing and the April 8th ceasefire
6:33 Failed talks and the June 17th Memorandum of Understanding
8:43 The 11 issues on the table
9:19 Issue 1: Opening the Strait of Hormuz
9:56 Issue 2: Lifting oil sanctions
10:23 Issues 3 & 4: The ceasefires
11:33 Issue 5: Who controls the Strait
11:44 Issue 6: Tolls and fees
12:07 Issue 7: US military presence
12:40 Issues 8–10: The big three economic issues
14:11 Issue 11: The nuclear question
15:30 MOU - June 17th
20:36 The July tit-for-tat and the collapse of US leverage
21:38 Iran's Proposal - August 8th
27:11 What can Trump do?
29:36 Conclusion

————————————————————
MUSIC

"The Ice Giants" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Music modified (edited/remixed) from the original.