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Extreme Dependence
Hiking cycles are extending or re-starting later in 2023 than many expected for the BoC and Fed, with the terminal points heavily dependent on the evolution of data in the near term. The BoE is similarly very data dependent, while the ECB l
Sticky Core & Right Tails
Debt ceiling negotiations turned out to be a lot less dramatic than many had anticipated – still to come are congressional votes – but once the smoke clears we’re left facing down the back half of the year with many of the questions investo
To the Limit
Debt limit talks are ongoing in Washington, with financial markets already jittery on US banking concerns amid restrictive policy stances across many developed markets. Recent ECB speakers have generally noted they expect further hikes, whi
Too much, or not enough?
We have a number of major central banks meeting these next two weeks, including the RBA last night, the FOMC, ECB, later this week, and the BOE next week. While each of these institutions may be facing slightly different circumstances, it’s
Ebbs and flows
Rate volatility continues to be elevated, with policy rate expectations swinging around as determining the terminal rate and what happens afterwards is proving complicated. The unwinding of banking sector concerns accelerated into a more me
Seeking Calm!
The last week felt much calmer than anything experienced since the SVB and CS induced turmoil over the prior weeks. Volatility is much reduced, credit spreads are tighter and primary markets are re-opening again. Can this last and what are
Humpty Dumpty
It might be an overly simplistic argument, but in hindsight it should not be surprising that aggressive Fed rate hikes broke something in financial markets. Policy actions to ring fence the problems have been fast and furious but can all th
Stretch Run
As hockey and basketball enter the last weeks of the regular season, central banks themselves are approaching the end of their hiking cycles. There is significant divergence among global central banks, ranging from a conditional pause from
Fooled by lags?
Are markets being fooled by lags? Not unusual for this point in the cycle, some data is coming stronger and some weaker. Recently the market has taken its cue from strong labor market data which might be a mistake. It has only been 6-8 mont
What Now?
The US payroll report sent shock waves through the fixed income market. Market pricing shifted aggressively - terminal pricing is now the highest in the cycle and finally consistent with the FOMC dots. Contagion has also spread to other mar
