Is the Economy Running Too Hot? | Macro Mondays: August 10, 2026

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack a seemingly contradictory macro setup, with the economy running hot despite slowing jobs growth and fading inflation. They break down Andreas’ latest convictions on where we are in the business cycle, and whether Kevin Warsh and the Fed are misreading the setup.

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Timestamps:
00:23 - CPI Preview: Is Inflation Falling Faster Than Expected?
01:11 - Why Tariff Refunds Could Keep US Inflation Low
05:28 - Oil, Hormuz, and Why the Energy Shock Looks Over
09:21 - Fed Rate Hikes: Is Kevin Warsh Misreading the Inflation Setup?
12:22 - Jobs, Growth, and the World Cup Hangover
14:33 - Is the US Business Cycle Approaching a Peak?
18:17 - South Korea Semiconductor Exports: The AI Signal to Watch
20:19 - Why Slower AI Growth Could Still Be Bullish for Chip Stocks
22:33 - Hyperscaler CapEx: When Does the AI Spending Boom Actually Slow?

#macromondays #macro #markets #investing #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #federalreserve #kevinwarsh #businesscycle #interestrates #markets #finance
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