Is the Risk-On Trade Breaking Down? | Macro Mondays: September 14, 2026

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to discuss several key macro signals that are potentially shifting all at once. They dig into the outlook for oil flows, whether a new hiking cycle is starting to emerge, and what it all means for the risk-on trade. Be sure to check out the Steno Nowcasting Dashboard for the latest signals on growth, inflation, and liquidity, only on Real Vision!

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosenvold
00:07 - Are We F*cked? AI, Inflation, Oil, and Rate Hikes
02:25 - Dario Amodei’s AI Warning: Is the AI Boom About to Slow?
05:22 - Why AI CEOs May Be Hedging Political Risk Ahead of the IPOs
09:18 - Could the US Government End Up Backstopping the AI Buildout?
11:07 - Hardware vs Software: Who Loses If AI Development Slows?
15:23 - Fed Preview: Why a September Rate Hike Now Looks Likely
17:03 - Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Latest Oil Supply Shock
20:32 - Oil Above $100? Why Markets May Already Be Pricing the Worst
22:32 - What Kevin Warsh Could Signal After the Rate Hike
24:18 - What Usually Happens to Stocks After the Fed Starts Hiking?
25:39 - Why the Dollar Could Still Be the Trade to Fade
27:52 - Fed vs Global Central Banks: Why the US May Hike Less Than Everyone Else

#macromondays #macro #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno
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