2026 Week 5 Island and Late Games Preview: Bills-Rams on MNF, Eagles-Jags in London, 49ers-Seahawks NFC West Battle!

0:05 Welcome to NFL Daily, where the Eagles give us breaking news every day.

0:09 I'm Greg Rosenthal.

0:10 I'm here in the Chris Wessling podcast studio for our late game preview with Jordan Rodrigue. When we did QB Island, Lane Johnson... One of the best players in Eagles history. One of the best players in the 21st century, period.

0:28 Retired.

0:28 There was a trade that the Eagles made that we're going to get to. But we do have seven previews here. Little different. You might have noticed we missed TNF. We didn't want to include that in QB Island. So we'll have our TNF preview at the end of the show. We got our London game. But we're actually going to start, Jordan, with Monday Night Football.

0:46 Are you feeling.

0:47 Fresh after Trevor Sykema got about 20 carries in the first half of this game?

0:51 Yeah, this is great. I'm on what's going to be known as the November Ken Walker plan, probably.

0:57 It's true. You will be setting records.

1:00 I'm Blake Corum today.

1:01 Yeah, when I imagine Jordan Roderick's pro football reference page, your total touches are in black because you're leading the league. Okay, let's go to the Monday Night Football game. We've been doing mismatches. for each one of these games just to kick off discussions. The Rams are three-point favorites over the Bills.

1:18 You know, rematch of that season opener after the Super Bowl. Yeah, that was a tough game for the Rams back then. They've had some memorable games. This is actually the biggest that Josh Allen's been an underdog in many years, which is crazy. Just respect to the Bills, Josh Allen. My mismatch is Pukanakua versus... You know, Bedford, if he's out there, who's struggled a little bit this year, but he's a good player. They put him in man-to-man coverage quite a bit, Christian Bedford. But he was out last week with an injury, so he might not be out there. He might not be 100% if he is out there. Or Maxwell Hairston or the Rook beat Igbenosin. It's a tough one, and they'll be matched up against Devante Adams as well. But

2:01 it really struck me how Puka Nakua. Changes the Rams. It's so obvious, but he carried them in the fourth quarter last week. Five catches for 76 yards, and he drew a pass interference in the fourth quarter alone. Those drives, especially the last one, was really all Puka, and it was all sorts of different Puka plays. Like, there's a back shoulder on the sideline, but a lot of the more of the in-breakers, everything that you wanted to see. And so I think that quarter is something for the Rams passing attack to build off this week against Buffalo.

2:30 Well, the difference is so significant when he wasn't affecting the game at all and even had a penalty at one point. Then in that fourth quarter, when he actually looked like he was a part of this offense in the way that they need from him. that is when things started to really click for the passing game. And the Rams are still dealing with some of the same limitations that they were last week. Obviously, Terrence Ferguson is on injured reserve. Colby Parkinson is banged up. Whether or not he plays this week is obviously a question. And it's interesting because Maxwell Harrison is, he needs to bounce back because he is coming off of a really tough game. Right.

3:06 And this Bill's defense hasn't been great overall.

3:10 Right.

3:10 It's 26th right now. And in overall overall, efficiency.

3:14 They've gotten some good play up front, but I think it's taken them a little while to get going. And that's why I'm going tiny table right off the top.

3:23 She is so excited that I'm doing it.

3:26 And it's just that the Rams offense is going to be brought fully back to life by this Bills defense that the Bills will help to solve the Rams offensive problems, much like they solved Drake May and the Patriots offensive problems last week.

3:43 That's my take.

3:44 Whoa, big take. Very big take.

3:47 And plus, I'm not calling Matthew Stafford an indoor cat, but I do kind of trust them a little more in this controlled dome environment at home.

3:53 That's the one time they've really looked like themselves this year.

3:56 The thing that could alter this, because already the Rams, even though they've been really up and down offensively in terms of just how easy or difficult things have looked. where they're really excelling is in the run game and you can run the ball on the bills where they're really excelling is in some of those, uh, at times it's been feast or famine, but when they put drives together, they are highly efficient. They are highly explosive. One thing I do worry about, and I worry about this with Josh Allen too, but we'll start with Matthew Stafford here to your tiny table, take point. is under pressure, he is completing just 41.2% of his passes on 51 attempts under pressure so far this season. He's got 286 yards

4:35 and three of his six interceptions have come when he has been pressured. The Bills defense is not looking like it has taken the next step forward so far. but that front is really, really aggressive. They make splash plays exactly in the way that, that alters a quarterback or affects a quarterback like Matthew Stafford. And that is where I am. I am interested to see how much of a hinge point that becomes and whether or not your tiny table take, first of all, because it's about you will come true.

5:05 But yeah, I'm on a streak here. Brock Purdy, no sacks.

5:09 Oh, are you, are you specifically on a streak for your tiny table?

5:12 That's right.

5:12 Interesting.

5:13 That's right.

5:14 Interesting.

5:15 Are you?

5:16 Last week was more of like a metaphysical one that you couldn't have a right or wrong. So you're still winning. You know, you're on a winning streak. Let's talk about the other side. Yeah, both offenses, you kind of alluded to it, have been mediocre. Like if you look at EPA per play success rate the last two weeks, they've both been right in the middle of the pack, which you wouldn't expect out of these two teams. One thing I want to keep an eye on this game is that the bills pass protection, like Deon Dawkins, a little bit of struggles, some pressure up the middle on Josh Allen.

5:48 You mentioned the pressure numbers.

5:50 So you want his pressure number? Josh Allen's pressure numbers. 53.3% of passes completed when under pressure, 275 yards, a touchdown and the two interceptions. And to me, he's looked a little tentative. And perhaps some of that is because of the inconsistencies with the offensive line. Certainly it is without having DJ more on the field.

6:09 So, DJ Moore, we'll see if he ends up playing in this game. They definitely were not the same without him when he went out last week. He's been worth that contract and the trade so far. I think the biggest difference between this year and last year with the Bills is they've just been much more aggressive pushing the ball down the field. Like it's go, go, go on offense.

6:29 Sometimes to the detriment of going away from the running game, which I think is a problem this week specifically.

6:35 Do you think the Rams... will test their patience. You know what I mean?

6:40 Like just see if Josh Allen will be patient to just move the ball down the field. Cause he's been like going at it down the field and it's kind of led to a up and down often.

6:49 You mean, I think in what you're kind of getting at is will the Rams play more zone again? And I think, uh, Jalen Watson potentially being back is a big factor. Sean McVay said he expects Jalen Watson. Who's been dealing with the shoulder. to be back sooner rather than later. So the presumption is that he will play and that's huge because that, that helps them be even tighter in their zone, play a little bit more of a matchy zone where you're coming down over the tops of routes specifically versus staying in a shell. And so to me, I think that's a huge factor because making him be patient. The Patriots actually did a very nice job of this in spurts defensively last week because things looked very difficult and he was taking the shorter passes

7:30 and it worked. And so, so to me, yes, I think the Rams have the capability of doing it. If they can't stop the run though, they're going to have a hard time. And Puna Ford, he's, he's not, you know, as far as I'm aware, he's not on the injury report yet. Very early in the week still. But he did get banged up in that last game. And so their run defense is a question for me, and especially against a rushing attack that couldn't be incredibly prolific. It's leading the league in success rate right now.

7:56 So, yeah, they've got a great running game. They've got an awful special teams, as always. It tracked me up when I saw it on DVOA. They are dead last in special teams. I was like, same as it ever was. Los Angeles Rams. Before we move on from this game, I'm going to put you on the spot and make you pick it. After we listen, I'll give you some time to Jim Leonard, that defensive coordinator, commenting on his cornerback, D. Alford, was complaining because the defense couldn't hear themselves because of all the crowd noise in Buffalo, which who knows, they might have to deal with here in Los Angeles.

8:27 Always harder to communicate at home than it is on the road. If we complain about that, we are assholes. I mean, We have to turn that into the biggest advantage we have, right? As hard as it is for us, it's significantly harder for an offense, right? So we have to find a way to make that an advantage for us.

8:47 It's such a fun bite, Eric. We just had to get into the show. And yeah, I apologize to Eric for taking such a Bill-centered approach here with the tiny table. His reaction was half the reason I wanted to do it. Let's go to London. This will be a little bit different of a game preview. We'll definitely get into Eagles Jaguars.

9:07 It's astounding to me that the Jaguars in week five of this season are seven and a half point favorites.

9:14 Oh my God.

9:15 In a neutral site game against the Eagles. I know the Jaguars are technically the home team. There'll be plenty of Philly fans there. It'll be a great atmosphere at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Or is it in Wembley this week? We'll check on that. This Eagles season has completely changed. Yep.

9:34 Over the last 48 hours.

9:35 We can get into the impact of losing Lane Johnson, but I did want to talk about the trade that went down on Wednesday first. Cam Juergens, who has been the Eagles starting center since Jason Kelsey retired until this season, where they moved him from center to guard after a couple of games because of the Landon Dickerson injury. And also because I think they were ready to maybe move on from Cam Juergens at center. They traded him to Baltimore for a 2028 second round pick. And they also get a fifth round pick in next year's draft. And they send a seventh back. Cam Juergens is one of the higher paid interior offensive linemen in Like he has a nice contract. He's made a couple of Pro Bowls.

10:22 It is a shocking trade at this point in the season. I'll let you start with it. Just like what do you make of the last 48 hours? If you feel stronger about the Lane Johnson of it all, like connecting it all, like however you want to look at it, things are much different than they were last week.

10:37 Well, all of it's connected because this is all happening at one position group. And, you know, we think we talk about teams like the Packers and similar things are happening in terms of an overhaul because of injuries. This is an intended overhaul for the Eagles, which is something, by the way, we never see during a season. Especially we may see it at one or two positions over a long stretch of time if everyone's healthy, but to totally change an overhaul, not just the the core of your current offensive line and including the retirement, but also it's like a complete identity change. several months after the former offensive line coach leaves. So it's like it happened in waves here. And this feels like it's all at once,

11:20 but it's really not. It is been this massive wave that finally has just crashed to the sand right now when we're seeing all of this in totality.

11:29 So it's all connected. And the reporting was that Stoutland, the offensive line coach, and Lane Johnson planned to go off into the sunset together. And the Eagles convinced Lane Johnson to come back. for another season. And he said that in his statement that it was just too hard for him. And the reasons he's leaving are family related and mental health related. So that's, that's one thing. I think that's totally separate from the cam Juergens aspect. Now, Kim Juergens is a guy who delayed back surgery so that he could stay out there in the 2024 Superbowl run and was awesome for them. Ended up having back surgery and, And there's some belief that he has not been the same player since physically. And look, they, I

12:14 heard Chris Long talk about Lane Johnson and say like, none of them would have Lombardi rings without Lane Johnson. Two of them, like the most valuable guy on the team. Kim Juergens also sacrificed for his team too. So he like was very valuable, but in the here and now, By all accounts, like he was struggling.

12:31 Yeah.

12:32 And they have a young player they like in Drew Kendall. So they think they got an upgrade at center. He was playing at guard out of position where he wasn't comfortable. And they like Willie Lampkin.

12:42 They love Willie Lampkin.

12:44 And so they think, let's have a youth movement. And to hear Howie Roseman tell it.

12:48 In week five. Right.

12:50 To hear Howie Roseman tell it, and I don't think he's that reliable a narrator here. The Ravens made it too hard to ignore that they called them earlier. And I think for the price that they were offering before, they said, we're not interested. And now they offered a second round pick and they said, we're interested. Second round picks pretty good for a guy who's struggling with injuries and we can get to the Raven side of it.

13:13 They need it, but I think it makes sense in the here and now, even if I don't think this Eagle season is going to go well and things could get blown up.

13:22 This actually makes sense. I think for the Eagles, regardless.

13:25 Yeah. A couple of these longest tenured GMs in the league right now, they kind of all share a statement or a mantra and they all use it and they all say it in kind of a different way. And the way I've often heard it is if it feels inevitable, make it immediate. And that's what this feels like right now, because I think maybe willful ignorance of what of how the wave was curling basically here with this offensive line from back into the OTAs and into the summer.

13:55 Right, it wasn't working.

13:57 And then finally see, okay, we feel like now this overhaul must be inevitable and so we must make it immediate. And I think that's what happened here.

14:06 So I do want to get to the game, but before, you know, Lane Johnson, it happens on a QB Island day. I know you had some numbers that like explains what they're losing. And look, he is second in the league and pass block win rate this season. He is still playing at an extremely high level, but historically we haven't seen a player quite like him. Yeah.

14:26 When he, first of all, he changes their complete identity. So you could see that on tape and that's the cultural stuff. And that is the captain stuff and the impact and the emotional and all of that. Tangibly over the last couple of years alone, when he's been on the field, the Eagles have averaged 4.8 yards per carry compared to four without him. So almost a full yard difference in how effectively they can run the ball. Also a full yard difference in yards before contact blocked open versus when, when he's on the field versus what they now do not have when he's not on the field.

15:01 Explosive play rate went up. Sixth highest among teams when Lane Johnson is on the field at a 14.4% rate. Explosive play rate when he's not on the field is just 11.8, which is fifth lowest in the NFL. So to me, it's like, you know, our great friend Dave Damoshek says Jenga pieces all the time. He is the most embodied one. Like this is the embodiment of.

15:27 What that is.

15:27 It is outrageous. Someone I follow on Twitter is a big Eagles fan. fan flash reported Denny Selman had the numbers going back to 2013. And this is so over 10,000 plays for Lane Johnson and over 3,500 plays that he's missed because he's had injuries over his career.

15:46 And it's so stark. It's honestly insane.

15:49 They go from being a top five offense over those 14 years in EPA per play, a top five offense to a bottom five off.

15:56 Yeah.

15:56 It's crazy. That's what that's. That's the explosive play rate.

15:59 That's right.

16:00 Completely illustrate that.

16:01 It's all there. Like in, in there's a million different ways you can cut it up. Whether it's rush pass, all this explosive, like it is really crazy. There were a couple all pros he didn't get that I don't think have aged well. Even at the time, I think PFF had a little too much influence in getting David Bakhtiari, those all pros, when he was playing left tackle. Lane Johns is at right tackle. Forget it. This Eagles team is feeling a little broken. And I think that number is why it's seven and a half is because this team feels worse than two and two right now. Nick Sirianni, however, is trying to think historically about about times they've been in tough spots before?

16:42 Quickly, we forget that only a mere two years ago in 2024 season, we sat in the same situation and we made some adjustments and we got on a roll.

16:53 I think sometimes we conveniently forget those things.

16:58 We don't.

16:58 We.

16:59 You know, up here. And, you know, but you're constantly finding, hey, where are you at and where you are as a football team, what you do the best. And our job in situations is not to panic. It's to find solutions.

17:14 Absolutely fair that the organization has gotten out of tough spots before. And they were two and two, but they've never had Lane Johnson retire.

17:20 This specifically is such a false equivalence.

17:23 Yeah, they've never had it.

17:24 And the thing that got me last week was on the money play of the entire game. What was their call? They don't have anything left right now. Like, what is their call? They can't run. Tank Pigsby just went to IR. Saquon Barkley is maybe not available this week. The offensive line can't run block.

17:42 What did they go to?

17:43 The same play that won them the Super Bowl to Zach Ertz in 2017.

17:48 It's like, you know what?

17:49 I mean, literally, it's the same play that they beat the Patriots on, and it's still to Zach Ertz, who just came off, like, the ESPN studio. And it worked earlier in the play, like, in the game. It didn't work this time. What I mean is, like, all the old props, like, I just think they're out of ideas.

18:05 Like, they were back to the blitz, not being.

18:09 you know, Jalen Hurts really struggling against the Blitz and no under center and all this stuff. And that's a nightmare against the Jaguars. We got to move on from this game, but I do think it's a nightmare matchup against a Jaguars team. Everyone now I think is recognizing is one of the best in the NFL.

18:23 Yeah. And I think that the number one thing the Jaguars probably want to do right now is completely demoralize an already downtrodden Eagles team. They want to run the ball against them and they can, because this defense is very vulnerable. I know we got to move on, but the Jaguars matchup that I am most looking at here is that Jacksonville run game against a surprisingly vulnerable Eagles run defense. And the Eagles specifically have the fourth highest missed tackle rate against the run right now. Guess how much of Basial Tootin's yards have come after a missed tackle? 65% close, at least half. So, and, and the, the, especially again, you know, over on the left side going at Jalek's hunt.

19:03 And yes, when Jordan Davis is on the field, he's been really, really strong player against the run, but they are vulnerable in ways that you do not expect a defense like this to be. Everything is off. Even on that side of the ball, they are banged up as well. I do expect the Jaguars to capitalize on.

19:18 Yeah. They, they run a defense that has the lightest, uh, you know, players in the box in the league. and going up against the Jaguars running attack, it's going to be tough and banged up is, is putting it nicely.

19:30 We'll see.

19:31 Like if when you're on Mitchell's out there, we know that, that, like I said, tank big B is not going to be out there. Obviously Lane Johnson is not going.

19:41 To be out there. We might get some Damien Pierce carry.

19:43 Devante Smith might not be out there.

19:45 There's a lot of injury problems that they are dealing with and the Jaguars hope to take advantage. And yes, this will be, I believe, the 14th game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium played the NFL. I've been there for a handful of them, probably four or five of them. And it's awesome every year that the show that they put on.

20:05 So looking forward to that one on NFL Network with that Jason Kelsey, Kurt Warner, Dave Pastrio.

20:11 Oh, man.

20:12 Having Jason Kelsey on this is great.

20:15 It'll be interesting to hear.

20:17 I got the Seahawks and the 49ers as my mismatch type of game. And we're picking a mismatch to start each one of these previews. Great game in the late window. It's going to be the Tom Brady, Aaron Andrews game. We had a draft for the first time. That was fun.

20:31 We drafted our games. What was shook doing?

20:34 I went, I don't know what Nick was doing. And also, uh, somehow I went third. I was, I was told you had the first pick last week. Commanders giants was shook's first pick.

20:46 What?

20:46 So I got this game as my pick. Uh, the Seahawks are three point favorites at home. That makes sense to me. We're looking at these two teams as very even teams. I had a hard time finding a mismatch because I think both these teams are great and in very much in similar ways, but, What I wanted to see was the Seattle rush defense against the 49ers rushing attack.

21:11 Like on paper.

21:13 And to my eyes, it actually is a little bit of a mismatch because the Seahawks have been the toughest team to run against, which is crazy because they are playing with the two high, the two safeties back at a record level under Mike McDonald. And yet their running defense has been fantastic. Now the 49ers rushing attack has been up and down. They've looked very good a couple of weeks and they've struggled a couple of different weeks.

21:39 They're very different than they used to be much more aggressive. of a power duo. They're not as much zone. It's been inconsistent, which isn't like they used to be. This is going to test if they really are back in terms of Christian McCaffrey and Kalen black running the ball.

21:54 I'm so excited that, that you picked this matchup because to me, first of all, it just puts on full display, the dynamism of that Seattle interior defensive line. Cause if those linemen aren't as athletic and dynamic as they are, then you cannot play a gap and a half or even two gap in some cases, like you have to do if you're in, in light boxes, which means you're covering multiple gaps at one time because there's less players up front. So to me, what Kyle Shanahan will do and has always done, and we'll see if it will still work with this cast of characters that he has is move the contact point and move the launch point of the run. Similar to how you can move a quarterback's launch point when you send them on bootlegs or

22:33 those long play actions or move him off the spot intentionally similar. Similarly, you can do this when the run game with a lot of the types of motions that he likes to use. He can change the attack point of where the run is going. to try to get those defenders flowing in different ways that they don't want to be. So for me, it's like so fun because it is strength on the field versus strength of playbook.

22:57 Can they actually do it on the field?

22:58 But you can't watch it. You have to focus on your late afternoon game. How dare you? No, you actually can't. It's a nice three late afternoon.

23:05 You know what? I will watch this game in my house after I get home from the studio, probably with a glass of wine.

23:13 I love that for you.

23:15 Kyle Shanahan needs to get that running game going because Brock Purdy's three worst games as a pro in terms of EPA per play are all against Mike McDonald defenses. Those are, that's a next gen stat. Thank you for that. It was the one that ruined his MVP candidacy when Mike McDonald was the defensive coordinator for the Ravens. Uh, now three years ago, I think helped get Mike McDonald that job. He could be the Shanahan killer, but more importantly, uh, it was the two games at the end of last season where they couldn't score a touchdown, the 49ers. And I know there was a lot of injuries, but even in week one, they didn't do well. They scored 26 total points in three games against Seattle last year. And

23:54 you can say, well, there was a lot of injuries. And there's a lot of injuries. Now you're, you're quite short at wide receiver.

23:59 Mike Evans is out there playing through it.

24:01 And you assume he will again, but you know, it's a lot of like Jacob cowing and, And guys you didn't expect at this point of the season going up, you know, against a very talented defensive backfield that's been getting healthier.

24:14 It's also, though, George Kittle somehow achieving... this level of play coming off of the injury that he sustained last year. So to me, it's like, feels impossible. What we watched him do last week. And he's just, he's been doing it. The speed is there. I don't usually get carried away in like the miles per hour stats.

24:32 Yes.

24:32 I love that they exist, but I don't usually like firefly toward them. But when you're almost running 20 miles an hour, second fastest of any tight end, in, in history. Like it's to me, it's like, okay, you that's, that's insane that you're able to be this right now at your age and also coming off of the injury. And so for me, he'll be a big factor here, but that's, that's a fun thing. I think if you're Mike McDonald, because you literally built this defense to be able to neutralize any type of, of mismatch player, such as George Kittle affecting the passing game.

25:04 And look, Seattle, Game situations were a part of it. Some bad luck was a part of it. They have given up 37 first downs over the last two weeks. Been a little leakier than you would expect overall. And I also think the 49ers defense has been up for the fight. They don't have Nick Bosa this week again.

25:23 That's a huge loss. At least that's expected. But in the back end, Diamador to Lenore has been really good.

25:30 Renardo Green has been really good for them.

25:33 And they are really preventing teams from doing anything but short passes, giving up a 33%, I think completions on anything over 10 yards.

25:43 So Raheem Morris's system functioning at its best.

25:46 Like, and you know, who's second in that it's Seattle. So it's like, these are the teams that are really good at preventing long passes. So you got to give the 49ers credit to mess up Sam Darnold because their offense has been disjointed overall. They've been okay, but not like amazing. I do give the 49ers a decent chance in this game, although three feels a little low with the number with Brock.

26:06 Purdy playing the way he is and the offensive line playing the way that he is. No sacks allowed so far this season.

26:13 It's crazy that we've now gone four weeks into it. I could have made that my tiny table take again, but you know.

26:19 It's against Seattle. It doesn't really make sense. I think this is a good time to get them.

26:22 I know the 49ers are banged up, but I feel like Seattle's still figuring out who they are. You're going to have to play in Seattle at some point.

26:28 I think it's better now maybe than in week 13.

26:30 It's kind of like you're going to have to go to the dentist at some point.

26:33 You're going to have to make your tiny table take at some point. Let's do it after the break, though, at some point. We'll take a quick one, and we'll come back, and we will hit Sunday night football, Thursday night football, and a couple other good late afternoon games weekly.

26:57 Wrapping up our week five preview.

27:00 Check out the early game preview with Trevor Sykema. And check out Jordan Rod Reig breaking down a mismatch in Ravens Falcons. The Falcons are favored by three and a half points in this game, which is an outrageous thought. If you time traveled back to a couple weeks ago, of course, they don't have Lamar Jackson to go against.

27:21 At least that's the expectation. And so that is a monster factor. We think it's going to be. Tyler Huntley starting this game, but Atlanta's turned their season around. This is the Sunday night football game. I think they're happy that they didn't flex out of it now because the Falcons have looked so good. Mike Tirico, Chris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark.

27:37 What is your mismatch in this game?

27:39 Yeah.

27:40 Well, before I get to that, Greg, first a treat. Oh, so I was looking, doing a deep dive on these two run games because I love the way that both of these teams run the ball. They're both at the top of the league and they're like kind of eerily similar in a lot of the things that are working for them as well. Atlanta is at 53.3% success rate with 15 explosive plays. They're averaging 175.8 yards per game, eight touchdowns and 5.4 yards per carry.

28:02 Wow.

28:03 Wild. Baltimore, 50% success rate, 18 explosive plays, 149.5 yards per game, seven touchdowns, 5.2 yards per carry. So similar levels of production and where the mismatch comes in is a little bit surprising. Maybe for some, probably not for you. It's with the defenses and how these defenses are defending the run. Because right now, Atlanta is defending the run with the sixth best defensive success rate in the NFL and, and allowing just 48.3 yards per game. Meanwhile, Baltimore is about middle of the league in defensive success rate, defending the run specifically and allowing a hundred running rush yards per game on average. So that's where the mismatch is.

28:57 I expect both of these teams to run the hell out of the ball and they should. because that's what's best for them. But also, one of these teams is doing significantly better at containing the run. Opponent factors into this, we understand. But just the structure of what these defenses are trying to do against the run really matters. Jesse Minter's defense kind of does allow those piece-by-piece-by-piece yards and wants to limit explosives. Meanwhile, Atlanta is just really clamping down overall with a better-than-expected defensive front.

29:25 Yeah. What's happening with the Falcons' defense... is special.

29:31 You know, it's a month in, and defensive play can be streaky, so we'll see if offenses catch up to them. If Lamar was playing in this game, this would be an opportunity. to really get tested. Snoop Huntley came in last week. He played fine. It was a little misleading, but in the end, the facts are that they scored 24 points in the first half of Lamar Jackson and they didn't score a point with Snoop Huntley in the second half. They moved the ball pretty well and they killed some clock. It wasn't quite as bad as all that, but Snoop's still moving pretty well, surprisingly well.

30:03 He's not that old.

30:04 It just feels like he's been around, but it's just not the same in terms of the threat that he provides. I do love what Declan Doyle has brought, but it's going to give this Falcons defense a chance to have Another great game. And they have been the difference-making defense between these two. The Ravens defense has just been, like, fine.

30:24 I don't know what I'm getting out of them. I think they're figuring things out. I think they're just average. I think they're, like, okay. And right now you think average defense against this Falcons offense, how much are you buying into.

30:37 Now, maybe not like staying.

30:38 The best offense in the league, which they've been the last two games, but how much are you buying in that this can be sustainable?

30:44 Well, to me, it's the, the explosive plays are the, are the hinge point to like, like, Atlanta on offense can get them. Baltimore wants to stop them, but has been susceptible to them. On the reverse, Atlanta, like I mentioned, has really been tightening down on everything. I don't know how sticky defense can be overall, but it is a group that's played together for a minute. It is a group that is really, really well coached on the Atlanta side.

31:10 And it is a group that has looked more dynamic and assertive than I think we expected. We talked about this on the Thursday Night Recap. When you're talking about these defenses that need to become more of a whole in the part to a whole commentary when they have a bunch of guys, but they need to be better than what a bunch of guys looks like on paper.

31:32 That's this defense to a tee.

31:34 They really have been incredible so far this season. And it's funny that when the schedule comes out, you think, OK, AFC North has a huge advantage because they get to play the NFC South out of division. It's the reason why the Ravens have that. highest win total in the entire NFL going into the season. And now they're underdogs here.

31:51 They're obviously without Lamar, but it's so fast. Like their game, this game would have been very challenging either way. They also lost Durham Smythe, who is a blocking tight end for the season. That's a big loss for them because they're heavy tight end groupings have been really effective and Smythe was their best blocker. So that that's something to keep an eye on there.

32:12 And one, and one thing about the, the Juergens trade too, he is in the concussion protocol.

32:17 Good point.

32:17 I don't know if I've ever actually seen a player traded while they are in the concussion protocol, but as a reminder has to clear the protocol for, okay, here's how it works. Has to pass a physical for the trade to go through, but is in the concussion protocol, but has to also practice before clearing a concussion protocol. First, having had to have passed the physical. So I'm confused by it. It's I'm sure it'll be.

32:38 Fine, but it's just, and they said, they said, yeah, he passed like it. A lot of it doesn't make sense to me from the Raven side. I know they need a center. He's going to be their fifth center that they've tried out. Does make you wonder about the resources that they've now given up to replace Tyler Linderbaum injuries were obviously a factor.

32:55 They've lost a couple of people there.

32:57 But they really need Juergens to pan out to give up a second round pick for him.

33:01 And I know you really badly are itching to move on, but I need you to indulge me on this one thing. Okay. Because me and Keegan, our friend, we were working on this this morning over at NextGen. Okay, so a lot of coaches, they kind of talk about Bajon in primetime and how exciting he is. And he's exciting all the time, but primetime Bajon is something special.

33:18 Okay.

33:18 So we were looking at Bajon Robinson's primetime stats. Obviously this game is in primetime. So normally Bajon Robinson is averaging four point or excuse me, 5.8 yards per carry in primetime. Specifically, he averages 6.2 yards per carry. He's number two in yards per carry since 2023. Can you guess who number one in primetime is?

33:41 Ramondre Stevenson. Okay.

33:45 Derek MFing Henry. Let's go! So I'm so excited about this. We get two of the best running backs we've seen in so long, and this is going to be fun.

33:54 You set that up for me. I really did not take advantage.

33:57 Now you know how I feel.

33:58 Yeah, you just put it on a platter for me. I'm loving this game. I'm not loving the cards you're holding up.

34:05 If.

34:07 If you want to hold it up for our viewers on YouTube, they say NFL report.

34:12 I know, Siciliano's going to discover I've been stealing his cards.

34:14 And this wears like the NFL Daily loyalty. We've got great cards.

34:18 I am left-handed, and I love the NFL Daily cards, but I smudge them when I write across them, and it's a different texture.

34:25 The card stock's better. Frankly, it's disloyal.

34:28 Let's go to the Los Angeles Chargers, who are 3.5 points. underdogs at home against the Denver Broncos. Chargers looking for their first win. The Broncos looking to avoid what would be a catastrophe. If they fall under 500 by giving the Chargers their first win of the season, like it's going to be ugly.

34:51 And therein comes my tiny take.

34:55 Let's do it.

34:56 For this week. The Chargers fall to 0-5.

35:00 Oh my gosh.

35:00 Nice and clean.

35:01 That is the tiniest thing. Just searching for a win that you can get.

35:05 Wow. Well, yeah, it's just because, you know, you're not talking about my other wins, Greg.

35:09 I can't remember them.

35:11 No, you had the Joey Porter one. We stopped down. We made a whole thing about it.

35:16 Literally, you didn't.

35:17 No, we did. We spent a whole show on it, didn't we? Am I crazy? Maybe you weren't on it. Even better. Even better. You got to listen.

35:25 You got to listen. Man, that is, yeah, you're really stepping out on the ledge on this one. The mismatch to me, of course, is in favor of the Broncos. It is Zach Allen against the interior of this chargers offensive line. Also on the outside, Rashawn Slater has a high ankle sprain and will be out for a number of weeks. So they're also going to be weaker at tackle.

35:51 They are dead last, the chargers right now in offense, uh, in terms of efficiency overall.

35:56 So, You know, there's.

35:58 Plenty of blame to go around with the Chargers. We've done that so much. Let's let's blame some things about the Broncos. I feel like this turned into blame both week. Everyone got a little annoyed with how many checkdowns Bob Nix is taking and analysts and even some coaching, like pointing out how there was open receivers down the field.

36:18 Cortland Sutton and Evan Ingram this season have a total of 35 targets and for a combined 152 yards. That's outrageous. I mean, RJ Harvey has more catches and yards than Cortland Sutton and Evan Ingram combined. Sutton, 86 yards. Ingram, 66 yards. Just not a dynamic passing attack right now.

36:42 Yeah.

36:43 Or running attack. I mean, nothing, nothing looks easy or simple for this Broncos offense. It doesn't look nearly as bad as the Chargers offense on the other sideline, but specifically with the Broncos, they were supposed to be able to run the ball better. You know, we're talking about an offensive line that I actually can't quite figure out right now because they historically have been one of the best in the league, but right now in terms of pass block, you know, people have different opinions on pass block, win rate and run block when all these things they're, they're underperforming relative to expectation. And then the run game, it's not, it's not chewing up yards. It's not attacking.

37:19 And the past game feels so truncated. And I, it's hard to, it's hard to figure out too, if, if some of it's, and it's, it's a collective of things, quarterback design, call defenses. It's always a collection of things, but the fact that it's so limited in both areas and feels so just like it's short vision in both of those areas to me as a symptom of a larger problem.

37:39 Yeah. And they could get a breakthrough when James sounds like he is week to week, likely to miss this game as well. So alt status is also not confirmed. Ladd McConkie status is not confirmed. And there'll be plenty of Broncos fans across the street for this game, which will be announced by Ian Eagle and Ross Tucker. So make sure, I mean, you're always here before 10 AM, but yeah, don't, don't show up late. It, Eric's going to have a lot of traffic coming in mid-afternoon.

38:07 Just throws Eric right under the bus.

38:09 No, I'm just saying.

38:09 Well, he's a scientist. We would love him here all day. He's doing work all over the place. Let's move on to Arizona.

38:19 Me and Eric were tracking to see how long it would take for you to bring up my tiny table take to me.

38:25 Did that not happen? We spent like four minutes on it. That's to be fair.

38:29 I texted, I texted Eric and I go, if Greg's doing a bit, this is the funniest bit.

38:34 I mean, I am.

38:36 Then you tell me to not give you credit.

38:37 I am a goldfish. I, uh, I have a terrible. memory of what's happened and what's not. I thought we went over it. And then I remember you're right. We kind of went over at length that night that the trade happened because we were doing Thursday night football.

38:49 And that was me and Nick Shook, but you should check out those shows. We're good together.

38:52 Shook and I, I know there's a rivalry between you two, but you should support.

38:56 By checking it out.

38:57 I listen to every single show. And also, you know, I just love how much you try to get me to make predictions and give takes and kicking and screaming, by the way, because I don't like doing it. And then the one time I get one right.

39:09 You nailed it. Joey Porter Jr. is a cowboy.

39:12 Can you imagine living with me?

39:15 It's incredible.

39:17 Chargers fans and Broncos fans are going to really love this.

39:19 Yeah, whatever credit you get for that, I think was probably lost last week by saying the Patriots.

39:26 Or the Bills have the running game the Patriots want. And then it's a running game.

39:29 They literally ran the Bills running game. They use motion in the running game. That was the point in the context. So technically, I was right.

39:36 So there was no way.

39:38 They wish they wish they wish they had it. And then they went out and did it the way that the Bills do it.

39:42 You know what the interesting Cardinals and Lions wish? that they had a defense, both of them, maybe the two worst defenses in the league. That's why the total in this game is 54 and a half. That's sky high. The Lions are five and a half point favorites on the road in Arizona.

40:01 You have a mismatch in this game.

40:03 And it's a big one. It's Trey McBride, the tight end versus the Lions defense. I think everything is a mismatch against the lions defense right now, but specifically I have been tracking this all season, how particularly vulnerable the lions are when trying to defend tight end sets or even singular tight ends specifically in the passing game. And it's a vulnerability that other teams have really exploited and it's on tape in a big way right now to sort of take and copy ideas and different things. where the Panthers even did it with a big quote unquote slot receiver when they put TMAC in the slot. And then what happens is there's these voids that are the responsibilities of the safeties to pass to each other. They're

40:46 obviously without their star safeties. It's just been such a huge problem all season. And one that seems really hard to understand how to fix without actually having better players there or more help. Because it's not like you can just now play a total, you know, everyone deep and or clog up the middle because then you're leaving other vulnerabilities on the outsides. And the Cardinals have the pass catchers and the skill guys to maximize any of those matchups.

41:12 Dan Campbell, by the way, knows that it's a big vulnerability. He talked about it at the podium this week.

41:17 You know, it is a bit of a revolution. And I think it's what you call big skill. You know, when you're, when you're a big physical guy that can run and separate and make tough catches and have some run after catch. I mean, that's hard because you're, you're big and physical. Um, and so you can separate from a safety and then linebackers, you know, you can, a lot of times they can run away from them, uh, or their catch radius, things of that nature. So, um, they're going to give this guy the ball, you know, because he can make plays with the ball in his hand.

41:45 Um, And he's tough.

41:48 He's going to get his targets and we're going to have our hands full.

41:52 Dan Campbell also said on local radio earlier this week that he was really, really needing one of his defensive players to raise his hand and say, I want to cover Trey McBride. And he's like, he's putting that out there to me when he says, you know, they're big and physical when he's talking about tight ends. Obviously, to me, he sounds a little nostalgic. He sounds like he's pining a little bit like he wants more of that edge from his defense. They're not getting it right now. There's big problems in that group. They're getting some pressure though.

42:19 They're getting good pressure. And that's where to me, Jacoby Brissett without sadly Paris Johnson. Now who had the injury, like to me, that's where Jacoby Brissett could be particularly vulnerable.

42:30 I don't know what to think about this Cardinals team. Cause as much as I like the weapons and have thought that they were underrated coming into the season, I am disappointed. They are dead last and explosive play rate in terms of runs and passes. So they've been a station to station offense and, Trey McBride and Michael Wilson are great players and can make plays down the field.

42:50 So I think they will be able to in this game. There is no one to answer Dan Campbell's plea.

42:56 Exactly.

42:57 Yeah, exactly.

42:58 I mean, Brian Branch will be back this season. Kirby Joseph, you couldn't have predicted that he had an injury that could end his career it's really sad like we just don't know Brian Branch will be back sometimes but it's a combination when a secondary defense gets this bad of personnel and coaching but I tend to put a little more on coaching Because like DJ Reed didn't forget how to play, but Seattle knew how to use him better.

43:24 And to have the same problems week after week after week and not be able to find solutions and to let Amik Robertson go. Like it's all a combination of they thought they would have answers and they don't. And this is a matchup like they got to get it. Like the Lions are just one of those teams that I think are worse than their two and two record.

43:43 But when I talked about managing the season, it's like they I've seen it a million times.

43:48 Teams change quarter to quarter to quarter, certainly.

43:50 By the end of the season, they could be a much better defense and a much better team by the end of this season. They just need to stockpile a few wins where the Eaton's good, like in Arizona on the way so that they're in position while they figure things out.

44:04 And they're going to, I mean, they're going to try to roll over this Cardinals defense because not only, and then offense is not without its flaws. Dan Campbell talked about that this week as well, but It's sneakily one of the most fun revenge games that we're going to get in this early season. Drew Petzing versus Nick Rowlitz.

44:21 Ooh, that's right.

44:22 Revenge game.

44:24 I like that.

44:25 The defensive coordinator for the Cardinals going up against the former Cardinals offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing. I mean, those two guys probably got along. I don't know if they're revenge on each other. But how about on the Cardinals organization? How about on the Cardinals organization? I'm sure Petzing would love to go back there and prove... what they're missing.

44:45 I think they can do it. I don't know if they can do it by five and a half points, but I think they can do it. Let's go to TNF. Let's wrap it up. The Cowboys are eight and a half point favorites over the Bucs. They are the home team. The schedule maker is setting up well for them. I think that you get Jalen Daniels instead of Baker Mayfield, even though Baker was struggling. It's going to be a chance for the Cowboys defense to get right. We'll get into that. But the mismatch to me is, is with the Cowboys' offensive line, particularly how well their pass protection has played this year.

45:19 You give Dak Prescott time, you're going to eat.

45:22 And Tyler Gutton's really improved as a left tackle. Cooper Beebe is a young player at safety, I mean at center, rather, that's playing well.

45:30 Another Tyler, Tyler Booker, has been solid.

45:33 Tyler Smith, his back at practice sounds like he will not play for this game, but he could come off fire soon. And they're going to get up against a Tampa pass rush where they might get Ruben Bain back on the field for the first time in a couple of weeks. But this has been a little underwhelming overall.

45:50 Vita Vea, Yaya Diaby, like Kalijah Canty, names you know. And I don't know if you like pick them apart one by one if they're struggling, but as an overall group, they're not making a big enough impact for like their leadership position and the money that they're making.

46:06 Well, yeah.

46:07 And you said it right there, the investment that they've put into this group and similarly, you know, previous conversations we've had about their offensive line to the, the investment that the bucks have made in the Todd Bowles era into this defensive line as a cornerstone and a foundational and cultural part of what he wants to be as a head coach and And to me so far, obviously they've underwhelmed, but they've also just looked like their time has passed them a little bit. Just like in terms of the, the aggressiveness and the energy and the play to play and like the explosiveness and the impact. And, you know, we're not in the weeds getting all of the numbers that the team internally is getting on, on

46:49 explosivity and those types of physical things. But to me, when I watch them, they are easier to miss than they are to notice.

46:59 I agree.

46:59 I was surprised when I looked at the numbers, and the defense right now ranks top 10 in efficiency overall.

47:08 It doesn't feel like that.

47:09 The offense and all those turnovers by Baker Mayfield put them in a bad spot, and they are one of the best 0-4 teams of all time based on the overall efficiency. They profile as closer to a 2-2 team.

47:23 They have only.

47:24 had a point differential of 20 points, which is top five all time for 0-4 teams. They keep losing close games at the end, including the one with Jalen Daniels last week. Jalen Daniels had moments. He looked good for an undrafted rookie starting his first game. His eyes came down and saw the pass rush way too quickly after the first read.

47:43 But he was such an effective runner last week.

47:45 Only Drake May had more rushing value, according to QBR, than Jalen Daniels. And he did hit some good first read throws last week. It wasn't terrible. I thought he gave them a chance to win and he needs to be lifted up. The problem is the team around him isn't good enough to lift him up. I am curious whether Christian Parker and the Cowboys defense finally shows up.

48:08 I think they need to show more. Like, yeah, I know Joey Porter Jr. The just got there. The subject of the greatest take in the history.

48:18 Stop.

48:19 Of podcasting. It's close. It's got to be up there. Of any that I've been on there, I.

48:24 Mean, you just picked a player out of a hat, said it's going to get traded to a team.

48:28 Makes me wonder if you had some information, but either way, you got it right. You got it right.

48:33 He played well last week, but the reality is... They are dead last in overall efficiency, the Cowboys defense. They are no better right now with Christian Parker. And they've invested a lot in their defense, too. So my eyes tell me they're a little better than that, but they need to start showing.

48:47 My eyes tell me that they have improved. My eyes tell me they're actually stopping the run a little bit better than they were statistically.

48:55 Yeah.

48:56 On my card, they are no longer the worst defense in the league in terms of points per game. The Saints, Lions, Commanders, Cardinals... and Cardinals are all giving up more points per game. Asterisk. They're still last in success rate.

49:11 Right. Especially stopping the pass.

49:15 I think it's a tough matchup, though, for Tampa, Cause the way to be Dallas is just throw all day on them. And can Jalen Daniels do that with Kate Otten as his top receiver? Something's a little funky with this receiving group with the Tampa Kate Otten leads them in receiving. It's a Buka and Godwin close ish behind him and Ted Hearst. They're all kind of in a four pack.

49:36 It's like, We need a little more Buka. We need a little more Godwin.

49:40 A little too much Kate Otten, who I like, but just their receivers haven't been producing a lot.

49:46 They kind of just go to the safety net. I mean, that's just the offense operating in a little bit more of panic mode, in my opinion.

49:53 I am hopeful for that to be an entertaining game, that they can keep it close. And Jalen Daniels was a pretty fun watch last week for a rookie undrafted.

50:02 I'm happy for him. It's a cool story.

50:04 Thursday night football, we wrapped up with the final game. I mean, the first game of the schedule. The very morning that Thursday night football will be played. Do you know what's going into the feed?

50:18 Yes.

50:19 Would you like to tell the viewers, the listeners? You want me to? It's Grant Yudinsky.

50:24 Uncertainly answered the question, sensing a trap.

50:27 Yes.

50:27 Jaguars fans who say, hey, you spent all your time on the Eagles trades. They were massive trades. They completely changed the team. They've been one of the most important teams in the NFC. It was worth it.

50:39 Guess what?

50:40 You get a whole show to listen to Jordan talk with Grant Yudinsky, the offensive coordinator.

50:45 That will be next week. in the feed, power players. Looking forward to that. Week five preview.

50:52 Yeah.

50:52 Two-parter. I had fun.

50:54 Don't get used to having half the show.

50:57 Trust me, I won't. I live to work, Greg. I'm being molded in your image.

51:02 Trevor was like, you know, it's like sometimes you got to give Derrick Henry a few carries off, but put him right back in the line.