Bears Trade For Jeffery Simmons and Week 8 Picks Against the Spread with Nick Shook

Welcome to NFL Daily, where the trade tsunami hit early this season. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm talking to my friend Nick Shook. We're talking about the big Jeffrey Simmons trade to the Chicago Bears. And we are making our Week 8 picks against the spread a little early this week so we can combine these two great items. And Shook, I just have wanted the NFL to be more like the NBA with a lot of trades at the deadline and baseball... And every year it gets a little more.

Now we got three great trades three weeks before the deadline. It's the league I've always wanted to cover. It is happening right now.

And today we got a trade that was different than the other two, which is two guys who weren't on expiring contracts being fire sold from a team that's giving up on this year and going into a rebuild. So that's fun. That's more like the NBA expiring contracts. You see that all the time. Yeah.

Good point. Jeffrey Simmons, the all pro defensive tackle from just last season, the first team, All pro is going to Chicago for their next two first round picks. There's also a day three pick swap fourth for fifth. Not that important. They're ultimately the important part. Jeffrey Simmons, who is under contract, signed a extension recently for three to four more years. So they know what they're going to pay Chicago and they get a premier pick. like pocket pushing, complete defensive tackle, not only winning one-on-ones, he's number one in the league right now in pass rush win rate, according to ESPN. He's got four sacks so far this season, but a great run stuffer as well. Shook, what did you think about the price for Simmons and what it

means for this Bears team as they go try to win a chip?

I think that there was a bit of a sense of urgency displayed by the Bears in this trade when they gave up two first round picks. Now, in theory, if you're giving up two first round picks, you expect those picks to land near the back end of the first round. I'm talking about the back quarter of the first round. You're anticipating a deep playoff run. You're making this move for right now and to improve your defense.

And you also feel like you need to keep pace with some of the other teams in the NFC. That's all fine. But it is kind of higher than normal price for a guy at 29 years old who is also on a contract that made him the highest paid at his position and pays him an average of $ 35. 2 million per year. Usually when the contract's that high... the draft capital isn't quite as high because you have to balance the two but it shows a sense of urgency on the part of the bears.

Yeah you you could say desperation but i don't think so i think it's a good deal for both sides and the titans did pay a lot of you know money up front so some of that guaranteed money has already been paid so the contract i think totally works Now, if you compare it to other defensive players that have been traded for multiple first-round picks, I saw the immediate reaction of, this has been a fiasco for teams when they do it recently. I think that's recency bias. First of all, we'll see about the Miles Garrett trade. I thought that was a little much at the time because Jared Vers was involved. It was a first-round pick, plus a second, plus a third. That's a lot more than this.

He got injured, okay? We'll see. The Micah Parsons trade, I would do again if I was the Packers. It completely changed their defense, and in his absence, it completely changed it again. It was bad luck for them. I think the Cowboys would rather have Micah Parsons. The Saskartner trade made no sense. The Jamal Adams trade made no sense.

But if you go back a little further to defensive players traded for two first-round picks... You have the Jalen Ramsey deal, which I think the Rams would have done again to help them get a championship. You have the Khalil Mack contract to the Bears. I think he held up his end of the bargain. He had a great run in Chicago. It wasn't his fault that they didn't get over the top. And so I think it depends on the player, the person, the situation. Defensive tackle is a position where you see a lot of players age well, especially if they're kind of strong more than quick defensively.

He's only 29 years old. He's in the eighth year of his career. We saw that Leonard Williams trade a couple years ago. Look how he's had the best years of his career in a good situation. And then the thing that gets me shook, and I think why it's fair, is he is going to replace the following snaps in the lineup, whoever it's going to be. Neville Gallimore, Kentavious Street. Grady, Jarrett, you don't have much juice on the outside either. It is such an incredible upgrade from a huge weakness to a huge plus. For Tennessee, I get why they did it for sure, but I don't hate it. Even if something went wrong and that pick next year ends up at 16 or whatever, I do think it makes sense because it's not just a short-term deal. I think it's

for the next three years, let's say.

This year. It's, it's for the Caleb Williams title contending rookie contract window is what it is. It's let's go get a guy who just finally earned his first all pro, which was overdue. Those of us who know, uh, understand that he was due of all pro before last season. He's been playing at that level for a long time now.

And it's an investment in the defensive front that as you just listed really needed it. Like I like Grady Jarrett, Grady Jarrett's in, you know, the back nine of his career. He's not quite the player he once was in Atlanta, but You're hoping that Montez Sweat can make a difference. But if you look at that front without Jeffrey Simmons, you have some legitimate concerns. This is a defense that's already played above expectation for most of this season. It has started to show some cracks. Luckily, the offense has been able to outscore opposing offenses. and keep them on the winning side. And most of these games, especially in recent weeks, but you need that investment for the long haul, because if you're going to run into some teams that

can run the football late in the season, you're going to need somebody who's going to counter them, you know, intellectually, like just straight up. You're looking at the, do we run the ball here in this situation? Well, Jeffrey Simmons is on the side of the line. I don't know if we want to run it here. Oh, do, do we have time to throw? Well, Jeffrey Simmons is over there causing pressures, fighting through double teams. It makes your defense that much more respectable and, And that affects an opposing game plan. And when you get deep into the season, when you get into the playoffs, so they expect to be, it's going to make them that much better of a team.

So it's worth the capital that you give up now, because again, you're in that Caleb Williams rookie contract window in which you have room to pay guys like this before you have to dedicate a significant portion of your cap to the quarterback. So it all makes sense. I was maybe mildly surprised that the Titans did this. Obviously they're off to a rough start again, but they did just sign him to this extension. He was a franchise cornerstone.

Things change quickly in this league, especially when you only have one win in your first seven weeks.

Right. And the front office has changed so many different times. Now it's Mike Borgonzi. They're moving into a new stadium next year. People have been saying, who's going to be on the cover of the season ticket renewal? If Jeffrey Simmons is your guy, with all due respect to Jeffrey Simmons... That's not a great position to be in anyways. He's a defensive tackle. I don't know if he's necessarily selling the tickets. They're in a tough situation. Some news, by the way, on Thursday that Illinois now getting a little closer to getting that stadium deal done, not moving to Indiana necessarily. So just, it's a great time to be a Bears fan. I'm glad you brought up the edge position too. Montez Sweat has been out a couple of

weeks with the suspension. He'll return. They've actually gotten better production than you would expect out of like This guy Hardy, I can't even remember his first name, Thomas Booker. Dayo Odengbo is coming back at some point from injury. He's on injury reserve, but it's a bad group, and they've had to blitz at the fourth highest rate in the league to get the 12th most amount of pressure. This gives you some natural one-on-one winners. You really have no one that the opposing offense is worried about previously until Kyler Gordon came back. Now you have Kyler Gordon, and more importantly... You have Jeffrey Simmons. And I looked at the contracts for next year, too, Shook. And I thought that's why I was thinking this is a medium term play.

They are $ 23 million over the cap. They don't really have that much room. That's like fifth worst in the NFL. But a lot of these defensive line contracts are going to be coming off the books. Odenbo is probably going to be cut. Montez Sweat, there's a decent chance he'll be cut just because they can save 20, 25 million.

Is he worth it? Grady Jarrett is going to be cut. And so like, you just don't have many guys long-term. So this is a veteran that's going to be there. And hey, like they won the division last year. They're, they're hunting bigger game this year, right? Like it's wide open in the NFC. It's wide open in the NFC North, but I think the bears rightly look at their offense right now and think, Why not us? I guess, what do you think?

Yeah, no, absolutely. And I think that this trade probably doesn't happen if Caleb Williams comes back and doesn't look like he has in the last two weeks. Like, if he looks like he's hampered by that hamstring injury, which he hasn't been, then they probably are hesitant to make such a deal and end up in this little middle ground where they kind of can't decide to go one way or the other. But because he's looked so strong and their offense has almost immediately returned back to form with their quarterback now in place... it gives them all of the confidence necessary to make a big swing like this because you know, hey, this is our time to strike. Yes, this is a very difficult division. We're going to have

to battle with these other teams. We're going to have to keep it as low scoring as possible because we do have to play the Minnesota Vikings again in the regular season, not to mention maybe in the playoffs. The division could be on the line in those matchups. You got to make sure that you're as strong as possible on that end. because you know what you have in your offense, but you can't have your defense fall apart late in the season and cause you to come up short in a season in which it's fair to have really high expectations. This might sound crazy because he's missed a few games, but if Caleb Williams plays at the level he's playing right now throughout the rest of the season, he's going to be in the MVP conversation and they're

going to win a lot of football games. So why not invest in the other side of the football and go after it while you still have that window?

And one thing I was thinking about, a little extra advantage, these teams trade in for these guys early you know they get three more games out of them that's not that's that's something including monday night football what a well-timed matchup quinton nelson and the seahawks matching up against jeffrey simmons and the Bears, this is Chook's dream. We're going to have a lot of people focusing on a guard versus defensive tackle matchup that we saw just a few weeks ago, actually, in the AFC South that probably no one was watching.

Yeah, you're right. Focusing on a guard and defensive tackle matchup that doesn't involve Aaron Donald, which is great because usually he's the only defensive tackle that really attracts a lot of attention. So maybe, you know what would be really good, Greg, is if the rest of the football world became very familiar with Jeffrey Simmons over the next three months because... He's played a lot of really good football for a team that hasn't been in the national conversation.

It would be really nice to get him in that spotlight.

We are going to get to our picks shortly, and I'm glad you kind of had your last say there, because the one final thing I want to say about Simmons, even though it's a lot, and I think it's a good deal for Tennessee, I do think it makes sense for where they're at. you know what you're getting right now.

He is playing the best ball of his career. He's playing great this year. He was playing great last year. It's not like Sauce Gardner where you have to change your scheme or he has to fit into your defensive scheme. He's a defensive tackle and their scheme helps out their players. Dennis Allen's doing a great job coaching it up. So Ryan Poles, their GM, who has been incredibly active over the years with these trades, whether it was the trade for the pick that got him Caleb Williams or whether it was Joe Tooney, whether it was Jonah Jackson, whether it was trading away guys initially like Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith, Robert Quinn. A lot of these have aged well.

The Chase Claypool trade didn't age so well. But I do like a GM that likes to be active. One person that I think should be proud of himself, though, right now is Duke Tobin over in Cincinnati. That Dexter Lawrence trade. For just that one first round pick, like number 12, that looks pretty good. Those might be the two all pro tackles this year. Like right now. And I do have a vote, Shook. I'd have to go through it.

Oh my God, you have a vote?

Oh, wow. They're pretty strong candidates there.

How do we influence? No, I think those are actually your two runaway candidates in the position right now. My last question with this is it's very, it's purely aesthetic. It was really easy to identify Jeffrey Simmons before the snap by the color of his sleeves. He had that Matt Judon thing going on with the red sleeves in Tennessee.

Does he wear orange sleeves in Chicago now? That's what I want to know.

That's a great question. And And I hope someone in Chicago asks him that. I guess we'll find out the answer if he doesn't have a press conference when the game starts. I assume he's going to be out there. I mean, how long does it take to get ready? Just go out there and get after it. Get after Sam Darnold. Oh, that's awesome. Really makes that Monday night game fun. Hopefully, you know, Troy and Joe Buck can go.

Get their act together before it starts. All right, speaking of getting their act together, Shook and I make picks against the spread each and every week. We wanted to combine the big news of the day with our picks, get them out to you a little early. We're on a hot streak, relatively. We're both coming off winning weeks for the first time this season. I'm actually four and two over the last two weeks. Even if you spread it out over the last four weeks, Shook, I have a winning record slightly, so I'll take it. We're building up some momentum. We both had the Steelers last week and you had a good pick there and you took your brownies. I will throw it to you for your first pick against the spread for this week.

I'm not going to tell the listeners the overall record that showed on the screen.

You got to watch the YouTube for that. You got to give us a like, give us a subscribe. We're rallying four and two over the last two weeks.

I was like, oh, that's painful.

All right.

My first pick this week. I first off, I'm just going to say this preface it by saying I don't like a lot of the lines this week because I feel like I'm on uneven ground. And there were a lot of matches where I was like, oh, I feel good about that. But also there's a lot of yeah, buts this week. OK, there is a yeah, but in this pick. But I do feel confident about it, given the way recent events have unfolded. Cowboys minus six and a half versus the Cardinals. This is a matchup last year that did not go in the Cowboys' favor. The Cardinals and Jacoby Brissett had a lot of success offensively, but that was last year. This year, the Cowboys rediscovered their aerial attack on Monday night against the Eagles. The

Cardinals gave up, I think it was 45 points to the Detroit Lions. They gave up 30 to the Broncos, a team that can't score, that can't move the football. They gave up 30 points to them. So I feel good about a six and a half point loss you know, expectation that the Cowboys have to clear in order to win this pick. It's an offense that if you could run the ball consistently against this Cardinals defense that hasn't been able to stop really anybody recently, then you'll be able to continue your explosive passing plays and you'll put up a lot of points. I feel like this could go similarly to that Lions Cardinals game. And that's why I feel good about it.

I'm feeling myself lately. I should have gone 3-0 last week. The Lamar Jackson removal got me. And if you had listened to that show, I even said my fourth pick would have been the Dolphins. Doesn't count. I still am taking that L. I know Shook is very strong. He wants to say no conditionals.

No conditionals.

But either way, I feel like I had the right feel on it. And I had the Dolphins too, as did Jordan. I disagree with you on this one. It is not going to be one of my picks. I love this week's slate. There were five games that screamed out to me that I really love. So I wish I could go five deep. The sixth game, which was just kind of an extra, was probably Cardinals plus six and a half for me. And so I hope I'm wrong.

I hope you're right. I just don't trust the Cowboys as a big favorite right now in any scenario. They could have been against maybe any team but the Titans. And I just would be like, I don't know, man. I just don't trust you yet. But I hope I hope you're right. I hope you're right. I said on our Tuesday show with Colleen that I wanted to break ranks and take Thursday night football. I asked you offline.

Is that is that allowed? Because I did say it. Now that we're getting this thing out early, it makes it easier on me. And so I'll start this way. We're getting this show out early. And I do have the Packers minus three and a half in this game. I just don't think these two teams are one point apart. And there's a lot of three and a halves this week.

So it's basically saying the home team is one point better on a neutral field. You figure you get about two, two and a half for home field advantage. I am wary sometimes of taking a team coming off their lowest moment because generally in the NFL, you do respond like you get back to your mean and the mean for the Panthers is much better than last week. But it's Thursday night football. It's a short week on the road.

You don't have Jalen Phillips for the Panthers. You might be missing a couple offensive linemen for the Packers, which it already is rough. But this is one defensive line. I think you can get away with it. It's weakness on weakness in terms of the running game of the Packers versus the run defense of the Panthers. But they were freaking embarrassing last week. And I think people have forgotten the Panthers identity was supposed to be their cornerbacks.

And they're not there. And no cornerback talent versus these two wide receivers. The best part of this game is Jordan Love and those two wide receivers. And I love what I see out of this competitive, hard-playing Packers defense every week, including last week. I think they're a significantly better team. You know, I think they're a 10 to 11 win type of team. I think they're contending for a playoff spot for this division. And the Panthers are just a team. They're not, I just don't buy in.

And so three and a half, I'm taking it. All right, give me your second pick. You're laughing at me just dismissing the pick.

It just makes me want to dive into a full NFC South conversation because it's just a division.

Oh, I'm thinking about the other game. I said I love five games. The NFC South game of the week is one of my five I'm thinking about. We'll see if I take it.

Yeah, see, that's the one where I'm like, I have no idea how the hell that's going to play out.

I'll tell you what happens next.

Okay, all right. The next one I'm going to go, this is a rivalry game. it's it's uh it's probably the game of the week it's a game that could determine the fate of what is probably the most competitive division in football right now it is vikings plus three and a half at the lions yeah i'm going that side of it because i trust that vikings defense and i don't know what to believe the lions defenses, what to expect from them. I know that they had a bounce back last week against the Packers. They held them, you know, to a low scoring affair, relatively speaking, Brian branch had an interception and the Vikings offense is, is a struggle bus continues to be a struggle bus. But I think that their defense is good enough to cause turnovers,

which has not been a lion's problem until last week. Jared golf was really sloppy with the football last week. He got away with three or four passes that could have been picked off in that game. the Vikings will make him pay. And I think they will get him off his spot. I know he's good against the Blitz.

He's good at getting the ball out against the Blitz. But when you actually unsettle him, he's bad. And I think that that's what's going to happen in this game is the Vikings are going to be able to affect him with their pass rush, with their different Blitz looks. The Blitz looks continue to get more and more exact to the point where Brian Flores is running fake stunts to set up other stunts within the same play. It's getting crazy there. And I think that This Lions team is not the team that was once coordinated by Ben Johnson and had success against Brian Flores defenses in the past.

I'm taking the Vikings plus three and a half because all you got to do is win or lose by less than four. Yes.

So not one of my five that I love. And it is part of the trend of the week. So I mentioned the three and a half point lines in good games. The Packers. As a home favorite, we're one. The Bills, who we'll get to, are one against the Ravens. The Steelers, that's where I thought you were going. A division matchup where the Steelers are favored by three and a half. I'll at least touch on that lightly. And then the Monday night football game has the Seahawks by three and a half. So that's the trend. It wasn't one of my five. It was on my long list and I was on the same side as you. So I think that it makes sense. I do worry in general, like what's going up, up, up, up for this Vikings team at some point has to come down, but the

three and a half. And I think Kyler Murray, I test wise playing a little better than people think I'm going to go to one of those three and a half. So, and I, I struggled all morning once I wrote down my picks. I had four games. I got to pick two of them, and I love them all. In the end, after doing some digging with the insiders and just making sure Lamar Jackson was not going to do it to me again. Recon?

You did recon for your picks?

I did some recon.

He's desperate, folks.

It's for the listeners, you know. Full practice Wednesday, full practice Thursday. The insiders, they're out there on Main Street. Ian Rappaport said Lamar Jackson is playing way back on Tuesday. Ultimately, I got hooked. You know what I mean? That extra three and a half, just like you did. I just think the Bills have to be thrilled to get out of this game with a win. Maybe they do. Maybe they don't. I think it's a coin flip game. I'm going to take the three and a half points on the road. When Lamar Jackson has played this year, statistically, he's been the best quarterback in the league, period. Like adjusted air yards per attempt, yards per attempt, QBR, everything you want to say. They've been the most explosive offense

in the league. His passing numbers have been the best. He has made sure that he can return at 100%. So I'm assuming the running game is going to be there. Josh Allen hasn't been far off. You know, I get it. Like they're right there. He's been durable. I can hear Eric say, yeah, but what about all the times, you know, it's just Lamar Jackson cheering on his team on the sideline.

That's the most common view of Lamar Jackson is cheering on his team. Totally fair. This isn't an MVP race. It's just one game. And I look at these two teams and the Bills are home, but the Bills have the lesser defense. You know, they're right at the bottom of the league in terms of total pressure rate. Two great quarterbacks. Going back and forth, I just believe this is going to come down to the Tylers, the kickers, right?

And I don't feel great about, like, you know, any Tyler in particular, but if it's three points in the end, I win, so I don't care. Eric points out 35 to nothing in the second half last week. It was a tough moment for the Ravens. You know what? Put it over the top. We're taping it on Thursday. And I'm crossing my fingers that Kyle Hamilton plays, but him and Roquan Smith did return to practice. And so it was a rough defensive performance by the Ravens defense last week.

No doubt, but they've been about average on balance this season. Whereas the Bills defense has been a lot worse than average.

And that's the thing is, are you falling into the trap of recency? Because this league has very much proven that recency is a fool's errand.

I'm not. Eric is.

Eric is. But that's what makes it difficult because I looked at this game too and I thought, okay, between these two teams, if I'm just looking at them straight up, I like the Ravens more than the Bills, but the Bills have an explosive offense. The Ravens defense just gave up 35 points to the Bengals in the second half.

He couldn't stop a nosebleed. And then I went back to the Ravens offense and I thought, well, can they get back on track if you put your quarterback back in there? And maybe you can, maybe you can't. This is why I completely stayed away from this game because I know I don't trust the Bills defense. And if Lamar is on fire and they're an explosive offense again with him, then they're going to put up points and they're going to win that game. But it's just one of those games where you can see it going in either way. Which is why I'll take three and a half points.

I'm trying to be unemotional and I'm thinking this is a total coin flip. Three and a half points is nice. So you are up with your last pick.

You want to talk about emotions? All right, this is a game that's not going to headline any advertisement this week because both teams are struggling, one slightly more than the other. I wanted to go with the emotional side of this game. I wanted to go for the Geno Smith revenge game.

And yet.

Recency has polluted my mind once again. And I look at the Jets who gave up 28 to the Dolphins, who gave up the best Dolphins touchdown drive of the season right away in that game, who made Malik Willis look the best he has all season. And I think, well, the Raiders can still do one thing and it's throw the football. Can they get going early? That's the big question.

So I'm going Raiders plus one and a half at the Jets. with zero confidence in whether they'll actually stop the Jets' offense, which I think has a lot of potential, but I have just as little confidence in the Jets' defense. So let's go, Raiders. Get back on track. This is your bounce-back game. I don't really have much more to say about it other than that they're probably going to throw Ashton Gentry the ball more than they're going to hand it to him.

I'm rooting for you, but I'm also rooting for Geno Smith, so I'm in a tough spot. But I want Nick's picks. to keep going. That was a stay away for me. If forced to pick, I would be on your side, but I didn't have, I was just like, I don't know what's going to happen in this game. I do know what's going to happen in five games this week.

I already told you about the Packers and I'm going to sound like an idiot. If you're listening to this on Friday, I already told you about the Ravens between these five games. I'm feeling a four and one, five and oh, worst case three and two. The other three games that I was deciding between Brown Steelers, our Steelers, they're not getting swept by the freaking Browns. We've been picking them a lot on this show. They are your Browns.

But three and a half, I do think they're significantly better. Ninth in DVOA, Browns are 21st. Coming back from Paris and like how I feel, it's enough for me to just stay away from it. Three and a half.

Do you know the last time the Browns won at Accreture Stadium, formerly known as Heinz Field? It's been 22 years.

Let's go see. And they would have to sweep them. Come on. It's not happening. And yet I love all five of these games. I love these other ones, you know, just a little more. And so that's not my pick. I do like the bucks a lot. Minus two and a half. I'm giving you all these extra. I'm giving you the bucks minus two and a half. I just believe they are better than the Falcons again. they're top five right now in every defensive metric. If you look at them DVOA wise, they have been there five, six, seven spots ahead of the Falcons. So that's, that line is saying these two teams are even, I believe the bucks are better. There's enough bad mojo with that coaching staff and, and uncertainty with Baker's thumb that that was

just enough to take them off my list. But I really liked the bucks this week. I think they're going to get back into this race and they're going to win that game by more than two and a half. Ultimately I found over the years, Gut is better than head sometimes. Denver, plus one and a half. I'm looking the scope of the entire season. I think the Chiefs and the Broncos are relatively even teams. I think the Chiefs are right now in a little bit of a down period. This is not a 14-15 win team.

No, they're vulnerable.

They're just not. And if you're going to have a down period, it's going to be an at Seattle, at Denver stretch. That's very difficult. The two pass rushes are just so different. I think in Denver, that difference, the pass rush for the Broncos in the Denver defense, while I don't love Bo Nix against Patrick Mahomes in any way, when I saw that they were underdogs at home, I just didn't like it. I just think these two teams are going to split. I know the history between them.

Long term isn't great, but actually the Chiefs haven't swept Sean Payton's Broncos since Sean Payton's gotten there. And I just think they will find a way to win that these two teams will be battling it out. It's not going to be a one-sided race. Broncos find a way to get this victory. That's my third pick. Let's go.

But if you're keeping score at home, Shook, I will go 4-1 or 3-2, maybe 5-0. But those are my three picks. Let's review them. I will go with my picks first, then you tell me yours. Denver. plus one and a half against Kansas City at home. Baltimore, plus three and a half in Buffalo, and then the Packers, minus three and a half on Thursday night football. I also gave out for free that I like the Bucs and the Browns to cover at home this week. Your picks.

Cowboys, minus six and a half versus the Cardinals. Vikings, plus three and a half at the Detroit Lions. Raiders, plus one and a half at the Jets.

We did it. They said that we couldn't do it. Simmons and picks in under 30 minutes, but we did it. I'm feeling good. We're going to have some winners, both of us, for the second straight.

Oh, yeah.

Keep this winning streak going. For Nick Shook, I'm Greg Rosenthal. You will hear us next in the feed together on Sunday night, but I'm back Thursday night football. Looking forward to it live on YouTube and in your ears. We'll see you then.

Bears Trade For Jeffery Simmons and Week 8 Picks Against the Spread with Nick Shook

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