Week 6 Picks Against the Spread with Nick Shook

Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're like a great cornerback. We have a next play mentality. It's the Week 6 Pick Show. It's me, Greg Rosenthal. It's Nick Shook. Coming off a rough Week 5. You know, I would have had a winning week if Harrison Mevis didn't, you know, have that kick block.

It happened.

And Shook had another rough week. So we're going to look forward, and we're going to look at a landscape that has changed in the NFL. And we're going to look at a landscape that has changed in the NFL. since we taped our preview show, specifically for the Philadelphia Eagles. And we do have some Lamar Jackson news at the back end of the show. We're going to hit the Jalen Hurts injury news. And I'm tempted to pick that game after the injury news. We'll see which side I go on.

We'll talk about that. But let's just get into the pick, Shook.

You know, it's that time of year where if you're struggling, it's plenty of time to turn things around. What will be your first pick against the spread this week?

Get us going.

Yeah, I didn't even look at how I did last week because I just wanted to move on from it. I'm going to go with a team that I cannot pin down, but I feel better than the team that they're facing. And this team that I feel better about happens to be a home dog. And that is the New York Giants plus one and a half against the New Orleans Saints. I think if you would have caught me last week, the week prior, basically any week, Before this week, I would have said, no way am I going to do that. In fact, I would probably lean Saints.

But what I've seen from the Saints in the last few weeks is steady decline. And I know Gail Benson came out this week and really put the pressure on the entire organization to play better and perform better. And they responded accordingly, you know, at least in the media. I'm going to need to see it proven to me.

Whereas the Giants, they're a team that is flawed for sure, but they also enjoyed some excellent quarterback play from Jameis Winston, showed some metal in coming back from a two-touchdown deficit last week. And yes, they emerged with a tie that felt more like a win, but I think in this setup against the Saints, they'll be in a better situation.

I think that they'll be able to win this game straight up. So the fact that they're not the favorite makes me more confident about this.

Yeah, I was surprised to see that line there. The advanced numbers for the Saints are awful. DVOA, they're 28, they're 30, they're right at the bottom of the league. The Giants aren't much higher, despite being 3-1. They're in the low 20s in those categories. This was one of the four games I wrote down. I was debating what's going to be my third game, so I am totally with you on this. The Saints have just looked like the worst team.

In the league.

Now, when you look at these numbers, I mean, maybe not the worst team, but the last two weeks. I'm just saying the last two weeks specifically, just the Falcons game and the Vikings, they've been pretty close to the worst. And the thing that bothers me about them in this matchup is the lack of physicality. The Giants aren't a great running team, but they want to run the ball.

And I think this is one team they can push around. And then on the other side of the ball, I don't see the Saints as really like a physical defense to go get after What's been a pretty good pass protecting unit for the Giants. So either side of the ball, I kind of like the physicality. I was thinking also about the Saints pass protection against Tyler Shuck. This has been a heavy blitz team the last couple weeks for the Giants. So can Shuck and the Saints have answers for the Giants? I think you're going to get this one right, Shuck.

Yeah, I.

It's one of those games where I know that the Giants... I know that the Saints will not win the physical battle up front, and this Giants team, while they are limited in terms of talent and ceiling, they are already becoming a John Harbaugh team, which is a team that wins the physicality battle. Not to mention the fact that they got ran through by Bajon Robinson and Brian Robinson a couple of weeks ago. It just feels like one of those... Contests in which they'll have every reason to fight really hard, given that their owner just put the pressure on them. But I don't think they just have the ability to do so at this point. And offensively, I don't know what I'll get from the Giants, but I do know that they'll do well enough on both

sides of the football, I think, to emerge from this game. I just feel better about them right now than I do the Saints. The Saints, it's a bad operation right now.

It really is.

I am going to take the Chicago Bears minus one and a half in Atlanta as my first pick here. I went down in flames with them a week ago. I do believe in buying the dip. If this game was last week, the line would have been different. It might have been over three. And it's a concerning performance by the Bears. I do think good teams, I think this is a good team, respond to their worst games.

Generally in the NFL, people have an idea of this is how good a team is. But no matter how good they are, they have their up weeks. And they're down weeks and some teams have more variance than others, but there's like a median of like roughly where they're at. And I think last week was an extreme. performance by the Bears that is not going to be repeated. Extremely bad. Obviously, you get Caleb Williams back. That's a major part of this.

But I am also including the offensive line and running game, which really wasn't bad against Green Bay, stepping up against Atlanta. And then I look at the matchup last week, Declan Doyle versus this Falcons defense and the Ravens with a backup quarterback made them look normal, like look like he was taking it to them. Declan Doyle, Ben Johnson worked together last year to me, very similar offenses. The Chicago bears run it at a higher level, certainly with Caleb Williams than the Ravens do with Snoop Huntley. And I think Ben Johnson's going to be able to look at that tape and kind of see where they being the Ravens expose some of the personnel deficiencies in terms of of this Falcons defense and put some points on them.

I think the Falcons are a good team. Michael Penix is back. If you're giving me even a 10% chance that he doesn't make it through this game because of the rib injury, that helps my case here that Tua Tunga-Vailoa could possibly be involved. I'm not that down on the Falcons, but I think it's like a four-point Bears win and they get it done on the road.

If Michael Penix was out, I would stay away from this game entirely because that's how much their offense changes when Tua's in there. Granted, the sample size we got in that loss to the Ravens was extremely small because it was an end-of-regulation scenario and a brief overtime outing before Tua threw a pick to end the game. What I wonder about this matchup is what can we trust more as something that wasn't an anomaly? Is it the fact that the Bears secondary got torched by the Packers passing game? Because I think the Falcons have the same potential to do that with their offense. Or is it the fact that their offense couldn't hold up? and protect their quarterback and really generate anything. I think that's less reliable.

I think that was more of an outlier. You get Caleb Williams back. I think you'll be better on that side of the ball. So then the question becomes, can that Falcons defense do what they've done prior to the second half of last week's game, which is play better than I think a lot of us expected. And Caleb Williams is the, I don't know if he's the equalizer, but he's the X factor in this, in that his mobility, how good is it, by the way, coming off the hamstring injury? Is it near 100%? Is it closer to 50%?

I'm thinking they play this thing safe.

Can his mobility make a difference? Because if it can, then it neutralizes that Falcons pass rush and something that defense has to carry a lot more, and then the Bears look like the better choice here.

Yeah, I like it, too, because of the Penix factor. I do think they'll come up with a defensive plan to get Penix to move off his spot.

He was not moving well.

Like he does the great things, the hard things well, but his movement ability right now, their ability to sustain drives with shorter passing is not there to me.

And I think Dennis, it was only there for like, there was a period in the second half where it was there until it wasn't. That was it. Yeah.

I think he can like run straight ahead. I think his movement skills are right now near the bottom of the league.

That's it.

Look, I believe in the Falcons somewhat. I just don't think they're at the Bears playoff caliber level. Let's go to your second pick.

I think that's actually going to be a great test of where exactly these two teams stand, more the Falcons than the Bears. My second pick, this is a– I know. I'm front-running here. I'm going chalk. It's Chiefs minus 8.5 versus the Chargers. I have no faith in the Chargers. It's as simple as that. I believe the Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL. They're coming off of a bye week. We know how Andy Reid is coming out of bye weeks. It's just one of the easiest choices right now. Now, you could look at it and say, well, the Chargers are desperate for a win.

They've been desperate for a win since week three, and they still haven't done it.

They've been playing hard, Chuck.

That's great.

They haven't given up.

They were ahead of the Bills. They played hard late in Seattle. And what did they do in those games? They found ways to lose both of those games. And what team is going to make them pay for finding ways to lose? The Kansas City Chiefs. Minus eight and a half is not too big for me. I'm going with the Chiefs.

Yeah, I agree with you there. That would have been on my list.

Long list for what I'm getting at there, which is the Chargers are playing without Joe Alt very likely this week. We know Rashawn Slater, so it could be four rookies again on the offensive line. It's a joke who's hurt for this team. I mean, Dante Jackson at cornerback and Derwin James are still hurt. And yet they're showing up and they're battling each week. And last week, if you took the Broncos, you sweated that entire game because those two teams look totally even. It's a division matchup, and so is this one. The Chargers played the Chiefs well last year. And you're thinking, man, this team actually has some fight. But they're losers right now. They just have a losing mentality. They will find a way in the end,

not only to blow the win, but to blow the cover. Although they did push against Seattle with that late one. But they basically haven't covered all season, and they pushed that one in Seattle. So I'm totally with you on that one. Here's where I'm getting a little crazy.

And.

Look, we need to rebuild confidence with some picks here, Shook, with the way we've been picking games. And you can't play scared. And that's why I'm going Titans plus six and a half in Indianapolis. I would have loved it on Wednesday. when we taped our preview show and it was plus seven. Now it's down to plus six and a half because apparently people are on my side. Don't love that for me because that's a big half point.

I am not living in a world where this Colts team should be favored by close to a touchdown against anyone.

The Tennessee Titans.

Employ 53 men on their active roster. Shook, you know how many of them are professional football players?

All 53.

All 53?

The coaching staff, they've been coaching in other places.

They're professionals.

I just don't think the Colts of 2026, who to me are a bottom eight team in the NFL, should be favored by this much against anyone. And then I just am going back to what I just said before of buying the dip, taking the.

Team after they were at their very worst.

The Titans have actually been pretty competitive on a week-to-week basis every year if you watch the games.

And last week they weren't.

And I generally expect teams to respond after their worst effort.

I could see them winning this game.

It just would not shock me. I, you know, wouldn't expect it if you're just telling me straight up, but with, with the odds, I would like it either way.

I just think it's a division game.

We'll end up being close and, uh, I'm going to be sweating out some cam ward on Sunday.

Let's go.

This is going to be, this is going to be so rough for you because I looked at this and I was immediately like, I'm staying away from that because I don't trust the Colts at all. And it's also a division matchup and division matchups get weird. They just do, especially in the AFC South.

It's a new coaching staff. So that made me feel a little less. Okay. I guess it's the first time they've played, but these are veteran coaches.

Yeah, exactly.

Exactly.

And this, this division, I think gets weirder than most because, which is why I was like, that's such a wide margin to favor the Colts, a team that I don't have a lot of faith in. It's funny you said they're a bottom eight team in the NFL. I just checked my power rankings from this week. I had them at 24. So that's right there.

It's the defense. The defense can wake up my guy Cam.

It's the defense that's going to give him opportunities that Houston obviously was not going to give him last week because they were all over him. The Colts aren't going to do that. And then I look at them offensively, and Daniel Jones actually made some nice throws last week. None of his guys caught him. Tyler Warren dropped him.

Josh Downs was in double coverage half the time. We know that they're limited at receiver. They don't run block or pass block very well, so Jonathan Taylor can't really get going. I think that leaves room for this to be a closer game, which then favors you being a Titans guy with them being the underdogs here. I just was like, this is a gross matchup. I don't feel strongly in either direction. I just know it's going to be gross. Staying away. I.

just shivered hearing the words, you being a Titans guy.

But I feel good about this. This actually was.

The worst team in football.

These were one of the two picks.

These two picks were my top two that I just looked at and I'm like, yeah, these are my picks.

Let's go with your last one.

All right, it's time to get gross. I'm going to get gross too. I was caught between three here and they're all different scenarios. One is a scenario that's most realistic, which is going to be my pick. The other one is... is this team actually capable of doing what I think they can do? Are they going to be the Jekyll and Hyde team they've been all season? That's the Steelers.

And the third is, I was looking at, do I like a division rivalry, which is Jets plus seven and a half at Patriots. I'm not going there because I think the Patriots heater is legit. And I think they're going to continue to build on it. Seven and a half.

Is a lot, but I, if I took my emotion out of it, I'd, I would maybe lean there. It's going to be hard to stay that high. I actually think I would take Jets. But either way, I'm staying far away from that. The Bucs are a good team. The Jalen Daniels thing. It looks like it's going to be him starting at quarterback. Makes me hesitant, but I almost would lean Bucks there as a home underdog. I've been riding the Steelers, but I'm staying away from that as well. What is your third pick you did?

So my third pick is the craziest of them all by some accounts. It's Cowboys plus one and a half at Packers.

Okay.

Because this is a team that has every reason on the planet to be pissed off after the way they played last week. they have offensive kinks to work out. We know their defense is not going to do the job, but in these last five matchups, the winner has needed 31 or more points to win between the Packers and the Cowboys, including the 40 to 40 overtime game last year. Right?

So we're going to get a lot of points. And if there's going to be a lot of points scored, I'm going to lean toward the Cowboys side as being the more capable offense, despite what we saw from the Packers last week. And if that's the case, we're going to get another narrow finish. And with the Cowboys being the underdog, feeling like they might be able.

To do it.

Yeah.

I would, Lean Cowboys as well. So we're on the same side here. It wasn't one of my top picks. Because I feel like I know who they are. And they are going to play better offense generally than they did last game against Tampa. They have the extra rest. I don't think Green Bay defensively, even though they've been creative and their safeties are good, are going to give Dak Prescott as many problems as the Bucs.

Will.

And I just feel like I know who that team is. Whereas the Packers, it was an incredible performance that kind of came out of nowhere. It's a new offensive line. There's just more variables. In a way, these teams have some similarities. Running game's not as good as you want. And obviously the Packers' defense is better overall. But I trust in the Cowboys in a shootout like you do.

So we're on the same side.

I think there's been a lot of anomalies in these games in the last few weeks, especially like that Packers-Bears game. I'm not taking anything away from the Packers at all. I think that it was refreshing to see them finally find some success downfield. But... The circumstance in which they were playing against Tyson Bajan and Case Canem, yes, did they force Ben Johnson to bench Bajan with their opportunistic defense?

Yes.

But that's not a good measuring stick. And I just think that in what has been an especially week-to-week league this year, it's going to be tough for me to trust the Packers on a consistent basis until they prove it.

Yes. And it's really about the offense there.

They at least showed the hope, if you're a Packers fan or a Packers fan, backer this week that the offense is now ready to, you know, keep pace in a shootout.

Okay.

The injury news I wanted to get to number one, there was a lot of optimism coming from quote unquote Raven sources to the national insiders that Lamar Jackson was, had a good chance to return this week against the Browns. That was back on Sunday, Monday into the week. He has not practiced as of this taping. And even though, His coach, Jesse Minter, has said he does not need to practice necessarily to play. I saw the athletic writer point out, like, I think we know where this is going.

You don't practice. You don't play.

The second situation that I've seen this year, and I've thought it's unfortunate that Lamar Jackson is not under contract, you know, past this year, really. He technically is, but, you know, he's waiting.

For a new contract. He will be.

Along with Puka Nakua, where you hate for that to creep into your mind. But, you know, Lamar Jackson is going to wait until he's 100%.

Wait, you mean like the self-preservation part of it? Like protect your earning power type of thing? Yeah, well, just like if you're going to be.

You shouldn't be pushing through injuries, especially if you don't have that long-term security.

I think there is a push and pull there.

And.

Who knows?

Lamar Jackson's injury statuses over the years have often been mysterious. So it sounds like it'll be a backup there. In Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts is suddenly out for this week. A shocking bit of news, especially when you get to the specifics, which ends in Ian Rappaport going on air and saying that he is out indefinitely with a blood clot issue, that it could be some time. I want to get into the game pick of it all because I'm tempted to make this my third pick.

But let's just hit the news of it all.

A superficial blood clot was revealed during evaluation last Saturday in London, but medical staff doctors said that Jalen could safely play. You saw him play. I thought he had one of his better games of the year overall, considering everything that was working against him. A subsequent follow-up exam on Wednesday revealed and I believe this is after he fully practiced, so he was still out there practicing, showed that he had been cleated in the game against the Rams way back on October 5th. He got all this treatment in London. He was practicing this week. An ultrasound occurs in London. They follow up with another ultrasound on Wednesday, and they say there's movement in the blood clot, and now they are determining the appropriate course of action and

out of quote, an abundance of caution. He is going to be out for this week. I think just because of where the Eagles season is at and because he played last week after the injury had already occurred and they had done some testing, there will be some conspiracy theorists wondering about everything.

I think the Eagles know that.

And so they tried to put out as detailed a statement as possible.

It is crazy.

Curious that he played in that game and then he practiced but we're going to have to trust them that this follow-up ultrasound revealed more and that it's no longer safe for him to play and not think about the fact that, again, that their season is in a bad way right now.

I think that the statement, I mean, it gives you a timeline that helps you understand exactly why they were saying that, you know, movement was good for him in his current state. And I think the biggest risk was the flight there and the flight back. But it also makes sense why they're now, you know, sitting him down.

And it just adds another challenge to this team that has already encountered so many challenges, so many hurdles, so many. Bits of adversity, whether it's your right tackle, who's going to be in the Hall of Fame, retiring in the middle of the season. You know, your starting center, he had to move to guard, getting traded away. The number of other injuries elsewhere, not having your top receiver, not having your top running back, who's a star in Saquon Barkley, not getting anything out of your first round pick, Makai Lemon.

I mean, they have every reason in the world to be an under 500 team by the end of this year, even if they still have a good amount of talent on the defensive side. Without Jalen Hurts, it's going to be that much harder. Tanner McKee is a guy who, is a preseason hero who did not look good in the last time he was in the regular season. And I think it brings an offense that already had an incredibly low ceiling down even further, which just makes the challenge that much greater for them. So it's a real bummer in what is becoming a nightmarish season for the Eagles.

And yet Greg likes them in his pick.

Well, the line initially moved to one and a half and everyone bet it up to three and a half. You know, everyone took the Panther side. And once I see that three and a half, I think about this Eagles defense. And you're right about Tanner McKee. There was a point where I would have been really optimistic about how he plays in a regular season opportunity because he did it a couple of years ago against the Cowboys.

Last year did not go so well. The last two preseasons really did not go so well. He did not win the job to Andy Dahl. And I asked our friend Bo Wolfe, who covers the team on a day-to-day basis, optimism level. And he's like, yeah, it's not nearly as high as it would have been previously, and especially because of the offensive line that he's going to play behind, probably without Saquon Barkley and Devontae Smith, and they've got a number of injuries.

It's going to be tough.

But they were favored with Jalen Hurts, and is that a six-point swing, Jalen Hurts, just getting down to brass tacks? When I look at these two teams, I still think the best unit in this game is and it could be by a.

Lot is the Eagles defense.

Can the Eagles defense keep them in this game and get after Bryce young, uh, dominate upfront. It's a tricky situation with that home crowd. Cause it could feel like a disadvantage pretty quickly. If things aren't going well, as Colleen Wolf said, even in London, this was a very ornery Eagles crowd. That's a little sick of this team that worries me a little bit, but I'm, uh, I'm just a dreamer, Shook. And I can see my guy Tanner McKee out there trying to drive for a game-winning touchdown down 14-11 down the stretch.

And maybe he gets it, maybe he doesn't. But you know what? They cover either way if it's a three-and-a-half point.

And this is a pick show, so it's fine about the cover. But I'm sorry. That's just great disrespect to the Panthers and what they've achieved so far this season. I'm just going to say it. That's just what it is. People are not– giving proper due to the Panthers so far. Maybe I'm a little bit higher on them than everybody else.

That's fine. I don't think we've paid enough attention to the fact that Bryce Young is off to a great start, save for his one bad day in Cleveland. And I don't think it's going to be that close, even if the defense, like you said, can find a way to keep it in range. And so that's why I stayed very far away from that. In fact, I was going to go Panthers.

I mean, you and the rest of America, apparently, you're like, hey, how can we possibly disrespect the the team that gave up 59 points.

That was week one!

And lost to Deshaun Watson. I'm just saying, there's only a four-week resume. Two other teams lost to Deshaun Watson, too. And, like, two of the weeks aren't that crazy. I know.

I'm just being a jerk.

It's funny, because I was leaning Giants, but I just figured, as my third pick, we could go in together. Part of me thinks it's bad juju. I'm going over to Paris. I agree with you.

I think the Giants are going to win that game. But, man.

I don't want to be on firing watch when we're interviewing the Saints over in Paris. So I'm going to go ahead and just be bold and go Titans and Panthers as my picks there, in addition to the Chicago Bears. You have the Kansas City Chiefs, minus eight and a half. You have the New York Giants as home underdogs.

And then your third pick, remind me again was.

The Dallas Cowboys plus one and a half in green Bay. Let's go.

Okay.

Um, this is it is the week we turn it around. And, and if not, um, you know, we're still going to Paris. We're going to have some fun next week. Uh, Shooky, I will see you on Sunday night. That is when we get together once again in the studio. That is not going to be the next show in your feed though.

We have a special bonus episode this week, Jordan Rodrigue with a great conversation with, with the former Walter Payton Man of the Year, Charles Tillman, the originator of the peanut punch. Talking about defensive strategy and current players and defense.

It'll be great. That's on set. See you then.

Week 6 Picks Against the Spread with Nick Shook

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