Week 7 Picks Against the Spread

Welcome to NFL Daily, where at least one of us knows what a point spread is. My name is Greg Rosenthal. I am here in Paris, our last show before we get to Steelers and Saints on Sunday. And I've worked hard, but I've secured. a couple replacements for Nick shook on this picks against the spread show. And I had to like twist their arms because they claim they don't know anything about point spread. They don't know how to pick a game, but Colleen Wolf. And Jordan Roderig, we are going to make you pick three games.

This invitation came through.

Thanks.

Yeah.

I avoid picking and all things related to picking, like the plague. So it is really remarkable that you got me on the show.

We required it. You know, frankly, it's a nice trip.

They said, we will leave you in America.

You cannot come on the show. For everyone that would care, we will be recording this. Nick Shook's picks separately. And we'll make sure that, you know, just so his record. Yeah.

Follow those. Don't follow ours.

Don't follow those. In fact, he's on an incredibly bad losing streak and mine hasn't been much better, but I did have a winning week last week. So finally, uh, We're on the winning track and we're going to continue it.

Colleen, I was asking Greg at breakfast this morning, how mad will you be if Colleen and I get more right than Greg does?

How mad do you think Greg will be?

I would love it.

And we will bring it up. He said, I won't be mad.

We need winners. Plus, you said you won't do it against the spread. So you're just picking who's going to win. So we're playing different types of games. Let's get into it.

So you keep saying the word the spread.

Colleen, just pick who you think is going to win a football game on Sunday.

All right. Well, I've been doing a lot of research on this thing called the spread.

Yeah.

It doesn't really make sense to me that you're favored when you're a minus. I feel like it should be a plus.

Don't worry about that.

Okay.

All right.

All right. It's like when you get medical results and they say it's negative, then you're like, Oh, no.

Right. Right.

OK. Vikings. Yes.

They will cover.

OK.

You're going to go the whole route. I love it. Yeah.

So I looked up that they're four and one against the spread. They're coming off their bye. They're obviously getting healthy. They have a 100 percent Justin Jefferson now. Jordan Addison back. Jordan Mason off.

I are.

Against a two and four Colts team that just became the first team to lose to Tennessee and then fired their GM, Chris Ballard. So take that into account along with Minnesota's ridiculous defense that this is a lock.

Oh, I love it. Look at her. She's locking it up. Yeah. They are five and a half point favorites in Indianapolis. And you think about, you know, it's a, it's a controlled environment and, That defense versus Daniel Jones seems like a rough combination. They're also coming off a bye week. So I think they've had some time to kind of calibrate with Kyler Murray, what they want to do on offense.

And I was looking at different defensive numbers as we were preparing for our preview show. And I saw just pressure rate. Not only are the Colts in last place, They're in last place by so much. Like they're not even on the same graph as the number 31 team in the NFL. So Kyler Murray with a little bit of time. Brian Flores getting after Daniel Jones. I like this pick. Colleen's off to a strong start. Can Jordan possibly match it?

Well, I'm just going to ride on Colleen's coattails here and also pick the Vikings to beat the Colts.

You see that there?

I say Vikings over Colts.

Yes.

Very, very advanced stuff here over on my side.

Yeah, I really think we're going to start seeing the fullest manifestation of what this Vikings team had hoped it was going to be. The defense was obviously so far ahead of schedule on the offense.

The offense dealing with the injury with Kyler Murray early.

Now that they're post-bye and we're getting into November when the real football starts, this is when you really see the full potential of this Vikings team. They're getting healthier at the right time. Schematically, they really balance each other out. I think Kevin O'Connell... Really wants to get more explosives created, especially with passing game with a full arsenal with Kyler now getting more comfortable and being able to limit opposing offenses as much as Brian Flores can and then counter with explosives on your side for your team is incredible.

absolutely deadly and it carries you into the post season. I'm not going so far as to say that yet, but I think they absolutely smashed the Colts this weekend. And also the Colts are a downtrodden team right now. You've got players at the, at the lectern talking about how they want to go win at different organizations.

Before the trade deadline. So it is bad. It's bad vibes.

Daniel Jones is not good against this type of pressure.

It's just going to, I just think it's going to be, um, Maybe one you catch on Game Pass afterwards.

You love a good lectern shout out, I've noticed.

Yes, people use the wrong word frequently. They use podium. It's not a podium. It is, in fact, a lectern.

Okay. And often I saw one too.

Aren't you glad I'm on this show?

Quentin Nelson. Quentin Nelson was in the locker room. And they asked him about possibly getting traded. And he just said how much he loved the Colts. Didn't really answer the question, but just said how he loved to be there for so long. He has so many relationships. It was kind of like a non-answer, but I wouldn't be mad either way. DeForest Buckner was just like, yeah, that'd be cool with me. Let's go for my first pick against the spread. Let's hunt some big game. Let's go Monday night. I love the Seahawks-Chiefs matchup. I love the Seahawks minus two and a half. to beat the chiefs.

I love the fact that they're on extra rest on Monday night after what their Thursday night game.

Right.

And I ultimately believe that this defense is with the Vikings as the best defense in the entire NFL. I think they're going to be fired up. I trust the chiefs, but when I watch them week after week, do, do I think this is like a 15 and two 14 and three defense, Chiefs team that like has almost no weaknesses I do not see them that way and I do think like how different how the seasons are going to be shaped sometimes don't even think totally about this week's matchup and if the Chiefs are going to take let's say only three losses let's say they get to 14 and three in Seattle is very likely to be one of their three losses I also think it's Seattle at a point when I expect to see them at their best when they absolutely need it a little extra

time to prepare for this Chiefs defense, which, frankly, they're so well coached, but there's not a lot of juice up front. I think they'll be able to protect Darnold. I like the Seahawks winning Monday night.

Kenneth Walker revenge game?

That's a little worrisome. I got to admit. I mean, he is the best part of the Chiefs offense, obviously, in addition to my MVP candidate, Patrick Mahomes. They got two of them. But I do think the Seahawks can win in a slightly higher scoring game. All right, let's go to your second pick. Okay.

By the way, I was just looking at the Chiefs schedule coming up after the Seahawks. They have Broncos and then Jets, Falcons, Cardinals.

But then the Bills and the Rams. At Bills, at Rams. They got the Bengals in there. They got the Patriots. It is a tough schedule. But I do think this is like I am not selling any stock here. In Seattle this season, I do think some of the turnover variance with Sam Darnold is just who he is. And part of it is just bad luck. He's not that different than he used to be. I don't think this team is that different. All right, let's go to your second pick.

So Texans, I feel like I've been talking about the Giants now for multiple episodes. And so did not mean to do that. But this is going to be obviously McCarthy's first start. And it's on the road behind a banged up. offensive line with this defensive front coming after him. That is not a great recipe at all. So I think the Texans cover.

I want to believe in a world where the Texans do just start smashing teams. They did smash the Titans ultimately, and they played their best on offense against the Jaguars. I feel like this is a little bit of a dangerous spot, like just expecting everything To come easily against a Giants team that's been competitive against basically everyone. But I want to live in the world that you're living in.

That Houston just flies into their bye. And then Jordan and I can just be a little more confident. It's going to all work out for you guys. We've kind of been walking around sheepishly knowing that we predicted the Texans to win the Super Bowl. So if they can cover... And I think the lines moved all the way from like eight and a half up to 10 and a half.

Like it's been moving like they're heavy favorites. If they can do that, that'll show me a lot.

I thought it was just to get to the Superbowl. It was to win it.

I believe I had them winning it. We did.

I do want to point out to one up me.

Yeah.

Patrick Claiborne did have the Jaguars making the Superbowl. So we're kind of covered either way.

Yeah.

Let's go to your second.

Oh, well, I just wanted to say, I think the way CJ Stroud is throwing the ball right now, the bike, or excuse me, the giant secondary has been up and down. And while, You know, Denard Wilson has them playing creditably. I do think that that's still their huge vulnerability. It just has not been consistent enough. And those guys can be so mercurial in terms of how well they're covering.

And CJ Stroud is making these tight window throws, high-risk throws. They've got more dimension in their passing game. I just think that if he can be protected and get that scheme rolling and that rhythm that he's been really thriving in, They can be very, very explosive against this Giants team and turn the game over very quickly.

The crazy part is I almost need the Texans defense to show me something. Not that they're bad, but at some point you have to look like a difference-making defense, and they have not through six weeks. And this is a spot, a J.J. McCarthy first spot, like first start, where they would absolutely... like show who they are at home.

I would love to see it a little worried about, you know, you're coming, coming back after a big division win from overseas giant giants are feisty. I think they could keep it close. We'll see. All right. Your second pick. Yes.

I'm involving one of my pet teams this year in my second pick. I'm picking the dolphins to win their first game.

Of the season. The New York jets. Sorry, jets.

I do appreciate how you've been playing this year.

I don't have very many scientific reasons behind this other than I feel it in my bones that the dolphins are due for a win. They have been getting better every week. They are coming off a week of rest and adjustments. And I, you know, whatever those may look like with a roster that looks like this, who knows?

And so I just really think that it's time, right?

It is time.

They have been building toward this. They want it badly.

You can tell some of the comments that are coming out in the media this week about how close they feel they are to actually getting over the hump. I don't think it's going to be a blowout by any means. I think it'll be close, obviously, but I do think this one is when the giant, or excuse me, the dolphins, I keep doing that, the dolphins actually do break through.

I want it to happen.

Come on.

I love it. I had it written down, was debating it as maybe my third pick. I'm totally with you. If you did want to go with the spread, which, you know, Jordan- She's just picking them to win straight up. I love them plus four and a half. Yeah, I am. They're four and a half point underdogs. So it's a very, you guys are very intelligent. They're four and a half point underdogs. I don't know.

Did you see that sarcasm?

If they lose by a field goal because that's less than four and a half, then you win either way. So I'm totally with you. This is sneaky, dangerous spot.

Greg just glitched.

If the... If the Dolphins, I've been glitching. If the Dolphins have, let's say, a lead in the first half of this game, I do think it's one of those situations where the home field advantage actually like happens in Philadelphia sometimes turns into a negative because the Jets fans will be grumbling. Now, to be fair, the Dolphins have literally not led in a game once all season.

Oh, it's time.

It's pretty tough to do. I think they're going to keep it closer. I don't think much separates these two teams. I totally agree with everything that Jordan said. So that could be one of my picks.

Can we cut that and make it a drop? He just said, I totally agree with everything that Jordan just said.

Eric, you're back in LA. Cut it. Let's go with the Ravens. Always... A little apprehensive when there's some injury news hanging, but we feel pretty good as of this taping that Lamar Jackson is going to start. They're one and a half point favorites right now. Whatever it goes to, I'm in. I actually don't think these two teams are in the same tier right now. I do think as the season wears on that I trust the coaching staff.

I trust the line play, which is getting a lot better in terms of the Ravens defensive line getting after the Bengals defensively. Up front, I don't think the Bengals offense has been quite clicking on enough cylinders against good competition. And ultimately at home, again, kind of looking at the schedule and the Ravens coming off a bad loss. You know, if you wanted to get into the lingo, you know, sometimes you buy the dip a little bit. It's like stocks, like the Ravens are coming off a loss. I like a good team, a team I believe is a good team coming off a loss because generally I like them to respond. So I do like Baltimore at home. to take care of Cincinnati.

Is this what the Sharps say?

You've got it. We are not sharps here. We work for the NFL. It's the sharps. And the sharps. Either one works.

I just was like, oh no, I've been saying sharps the whole time.

Is it sharks?

Either one. You could be... I'm already.

Messed up from people going to the podium.

It's the lectern. How are we going to address this now?

Greg was talking to me. We were going on our walk the first day that we got here.

It was a great walk, by the way. Paris is lovely.

And he was telling me all about this show and how we were going to do this show.

And I was like, okay.

And I said, you know, you're saying all these things, Greg, and you're telling me the lingo and all this stuff.

I was like, this is not going to stay in my brain. You can say it. You can talk all you want. And if that helps you.

I wasn't saying any lingo. You were asking me.

You were saying, you were telling me.

You were like, do I have to know what chalky means?

I was like, you don't have to know any lingo. I said, you and Nick say this word all the time. It's this word.

Is it stripy? What is it? It's the spread. It will double down? It's the spread. I think she must've listened or heard us say something about shock one time, but that's not even really a gambling turn. That would just be in general. If you're just saying predictable favorites in general, it doesn't necessarily have to do with gambling.

All right.

We've got two of your picks here, George, uh, Colleen. Okay. We're finishing out. We need to get out of here. Uh, I need to plug back in. Okay.

Um, I'm going to do, I don't love this one, but, And it's going to pain me to do it. But I think that the Eagles don't really have a shot to win.

Ouch. I don't hate it.

It's just such a broken offense right now. And sure, Saquon Barkley is coming back, but it's going to be behind a banged up offensive line. And I mean, I just don't love this spot at all. And I know it's a it's a division game, too. And yes, the Cowboys are their own beautiful mess right now.

Right.

But it just I think Dallas is favored on the road in Philly.

By four and a half. It is a lot. And last week I sort of did the thing and I did. Went two and one last week, but the one I got wrong was I trusted your Eagles. And unfortunately, my reasoning was largely when everyone is on one side, like the other side usually does it. And everyone, of course, was on the Panthers last week as like road favorites.

There's a reason why they're able to build those casinos in Las Vegas. It's not because the people win. But this time it's a similar spot where there are four and a half point underdogs, but man, It is tough to watch that team in stomach picking them at this point. Just kidding. I'll go Eagles. Oh, she did it.

Wow.

Keep it close. Why not?

Wow.

We don't know what's going to happen. That's a ridiculous game. All right, Jordan, your last pick.

Yeah, I wanted to pick the game we're going to be watching.

Yes.

This week, Saints-Steelers.

I think I would guess the Saints are underdogs in this game. And I think that the Saints will win this game. I know that's a little bit risky. The Steelers have been playing really great football. Defense looks great right now. When the Steelers are at their best, they are creating downfield, the catch and runs with Jalen Warren.

They're blocking it up well for Aaron Rodgers, who's moving better. DK Metcalf actually looks like he belongs on this team. Splash plays by older defensive players, young guys stepping up.

I get all of.

That, but.

Man, I watched the Rams come in late to an international game and be so flat. The Steelers are getting here late in the week. I'm not quite sure how that's going to go. And I just think it's a desperation game for the Saints because if the Saints don't win, and particularly if Kellen Moore does not show this offense can reach a new ceiling and sustain a lead through the course of a game and not make a win feel like a loss. the ownership really needs to see that.

I do think it's really, really important. And I think that this Saints, at least, you know, on the outside, some of the things that the addressers are good at doing is a problem for Aaron Rodgers.

I've believed in the Steelers on this show this year overall. Hasn't always worked out, but for the most part, it has. I will take the Steelers minus three and a half. I think they could boat race the Saints in this game. When I watch the Saints on tape, like, I think it's one of the worst teams in the league. I hate to say that after covering them, I want them to do well because I have so many Saints fans in my life. They are not a juice forward organization right now to use a Jordan term, just like a little lifeless. And I got to say the Steelers have their faults for sure. They get the Sean Elliott back, but the secondary, like they can't play man coverage. There's a reason why they're the heaviest zone team in the

league is because they just don't have the athletes to ever play man coverage. I think that's fine against the Saints. I love what their young offensive line can do in the running game. I kind of like the confidence Aaron Rodgers is playing with, even though he's not playing that well. But more than anything, like I like Nick Herbig and some of these defensive players, Jalen Ramsey with playing with incredible.

aggression and against the worst run defense in the entire NFL, by far the New Orleans Saints, they are dead last in DVOA 32nd. The difference between the Saints at 32nd and whoever's at 31 is the same as the difference between number 31 and like the average run defense. Like they are by far the worst. So I love Maxi Hanachor.

I'm just going to keep like showing up that I know how to say his name and just the big guys up front, push this Saints team around. And I think it could be a blowout.

Your facts and logic and reasons are all great, Greg, but you can't count for vibes, you know?

No. This Saints team, I'm not feeling the vibes, but this is a very unpredictable pair of teams.

Steelers are so mercurial, though, to me.

They really are. They really are. If it happens how it happens, I would double down on that. And I would be curious... If Mickey Loomis and or Kellen Moore, you know, are still involved after the bye week. So, well, it's a little extra pressure on them.

Jordan, you sort of I came in and was all. Steelers like just because of how bad the Saints run defense has been and because they can lean on Jalen Warren and then let Aaron Rodgers do his thing but the fact that they're getting here late that now has me shook a little bit only because we're.

In paris though that's true exactly exactly they're all older guys on the team all their all their key guys are older i mean listen i would i would i'll be happy to see a great game.

The numbers will say go into london and we're one hour away and one hour time zone although we have daylight savings on Sunday here, shows that it basically has evened out the teams that have come late here. Australia was maybe another matter. Wait, hold on a second.

I have some more stuff to say. Damn it, Greg.

I mean, we can just get out of here, but if you want to.

Okay, I just find it fascinating, the coaching matrix of this game in general, because Mike McCarthy is involved on every single side of it. He was formerly the offensive coordinator for, the saints he made his name exactly he won a super bowl in green bay with aaron rogers against the steelers now he's coaching for the steelers with aaron rogers against the saints and kellen moore also used to work under mike mccarthy when they were at the cowboys together for three years that's interesting also another little fun fact you mentioned jalen ramsey He's coming off his second multi-sac game of his career, and his birthday is on Saturday. So all he wants for his birthday is another quarterback.

I love that.

Wait, whose birthday is it? Jalen Ramsey.

Oh, okay. Yeah, another sac. I thought you were saying... one of the coaches won another quarterback. I thought you were breaking some news to me. In addition to Mike McCarthy and the Kellen Moore connections, you know, who desperately wanted the Saints job given to Kellen Moore, Mike McCarthy, like he publicly.

It's like the Kevin Bacon of the NFL.

He publicly went for it. He privately went for it. He was the finalist. They chose Kellen Moore over Mike McCarthy. It's a Mike McCarthy revenge game. And yeah, I like a lot of the games this week. Maybe I'm too confident coming off a winning week finally, but I like the 49ers minus two and a half. I like the Packers plus three and a half in Detroit, but those will not be my official picks. Mine will be Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Baltimore. See, it wasn't too bad making picks. Now I know you're going to be rooting for your Saints.

I mostly just root against your picks every week.

It's been a great week season for you. It has been a great few days here in Paris. The big show is coming soon. on sunday morning hope everyone uh wakes up to watch us so we'll be we'll be somewhere there in the crowd you could you could try to listen to.

Us just hope everybody wakes up on talks for.

It yeah please do um i think that's good perspective um From the co-host of The Death Show.

We got it in another show.

Yes. For Colleen Wolfe, I'm Jordan Roderick. We'll be talking to you. I've always been Jordan Roderick. I just want to plug myself back in. I absolutely need some sleep. And yes, we will be back on Sunday night. Jordan, you'll be there, right?

And I'm Greg Rosenthal.

Yes, we will be there. Patrick Claibon and Nick Schuch will be helping us out on that show too. But you'll hear from us next on Sunday night.

Leave it on.

Week 7 Picks Against the Spread

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