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Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help prepare you for the week ahead.
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An Information-Rich Week
This article, while nominally titled “Notes on the Week Ahead”, usually detours almost immediately into other issues. However, since we’ve entered what Chairman Warsh describes as an “information-rich” period, it is worth taking a look at j
Haunted Housing: The Outlook for Residential Real Estate
The housing market is haunted. It’s haunted by the legacy of too-easy monetary policy for well over a decade which allowed prices to vault higher in the post-pandemic boom. It’s haunted by tariffs and immigration policies that are simultane
A Season of Moderation in the Year of Boom and Doom
This has been a year of distinct seasons for financial markets. The first quarter was dominated by the joint U.S./Israeli attack on Iran and its aftermath. The second was about booming tech earnings. The third quarter saw a sharp rise in lo
The PCE-CPI Gap and the Outlook for Further Fed Tightening
On balance, I don’t believe that the Federal Reserve should have raised interest rates last week. However, I must confess that there was one reference in Chairman Warsh’s press conference that left me distinctly uneasy. He noted that year-o
The Fed Paints itself into a Rate-Hiking Corner
In the Broadway musical, Fiddler on the Roof, Tevye, the well-meaning patriarch of a poor family, has to make some tough choices in a complicated time. Tevye, (who always reminded me of my father-in-law, Bill), has trouble deciding and thre
The New, New Normal
The era of low growth, low inflation and super-low interest rates that followed the Great Financial Crisis was christened by Mohamed El-Erian as “The New Normal”. While this episode largely came to an end with the post-pandemic growth and i
Labor Market Mysteries
In a generally upbeat Jackson Hole speech on Friday, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh asserted that “labor markets are consistent with full employment”. Given that the current unemployment rate, at 4.1%, is the lowest it’s been in 18 months and is
The Road to $40 Trillion
Money was tight in our early married years. We bought a house we couldn’t afford, purchased a car we couldn’t afford and had all the expenses attendant on the raising of two young boys. However, as we wandered the local mall gazing at all t
What Lies Beneath: An Updated Outlook on the Economy and Investing
The summer of 2026 has been dominated by the AI boom. Some fear that AI is advancing too quickly for thoughtful regulation. Others worry that end-user revenues will lag too far behind massive capital spending and fast-growing debt. From an
The People versus Inflation
No one liked the defendant. That much was clear. But when the jury retired to consider their verdict, they hardly knew where to start. The case was so confusing and the judge’s instructions hardly seemed adequate. “Perhaps”, suggested the f
A Top Down View of the Earnings Surge
The earnings season has started with a blast. As of Friday morning, 49 of the S&P500 companies had reported second-quarter earnings, with 85% beating expectations and the index on track for a blockbuster 23% year-over-year gain for the quar
The Fed Communications Debate: Bernanke Versus Warsh
Alan Greenspan, who served as Fed Chairman for almost 20 years, died last month at the age of 100. He was a talented and faithful public servant who guided U.S. monetary policy through the stock market crash of 1987, the boom years of the 1
Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market
Despite very average economic performance, consumer sentiment remains at extraordinarily low levels. While there are many interesting aspects to this phenomenon, one is of particular relevance to investors. As we show on page 32 of the Guid
The Healing of Housing
In the pantheon of running injuries, there is a well-established hierarchy. A recreational runner, finishing any marathon, or exerting themselves at half that distance, can expect to come down with delayed onset muscle soreness, otherwise k
The MOU and Warsh: A Changing Macro Landscape
Last week, as a frothy stock market continued to zigzag across a high plateau, two events occurred with significant implications for the macroeconomic outlook. First, the President signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, potentially
The Inflation Outlook and Fed Policy under New Leadership
Last Wednesday’s CPI report, while not a surprise, still showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 4.2% - higher than in any month since April, 2023. For investors, this raises a number of questions. First, is this the peak for U.S. inflati
Investing in a Divergent Economy
Two weeks ago, Sari and I took a vacation - an extended road trip down the East Coast as far as Charleston and then inland back to New York through the Appalachians. On a long driving stretch on the way back, we stopped at a Jersey Mike’s j
Five Scenarios for the Federal Debt
The Financial Accounts of the United States is a quarterly Federal Reserve publication containing a great many large numbers but very little commentary, presumably because the authors feel the numbers speak for themselves. And the numbers d
Quarter Days and the Economic Outlook
In 19th century English novels, so-called “quarter days” often provided a chronological backdrop to the plot. A relic of medieval times, the quarter days were Lady Day (March 25th), Midsummer Day (June 24th), Michaelmas (September 29th) and
AI, Inflation and Interest Rates
On Tuesday, the Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings to consider the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair. His confirmation will likely be delayed until the Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell is fully
The Latest News and the Economic Outlook
Evening newspapers, like vinyl records and rotary phones, are fading relics, all victims of the smartphones into which humanity is gradually burying its consciousness. But once, they were a vibrant part of daily life. Growing up in Dublin i
The Receding Tariff Tide
A year ago this week, the President announced what he described as “reciprocal tariffs” on goods imported from all major U.S. trading partners. These tariffs, which were much broader and higher than expected, led to an immediate and sharp d
The Investment Implications of Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet
In a speech last April, Fed Chair Nominee, Kevin Warsh, lamented the mission creep of the Federal Reserve as well as the Fed’s expanded balance sheet. Many academics agree with Warsh – the Fed has often tried to address problems that are no
How Will It End?
One of the benefits of my marathon training is that, most weekends, I get to jog over the Newton and Wellesley hills with my running buddy, John, who happens to be a financial advisor. Over the course of three hours we solve the problems of
An Updated Outlook for the U.S. Economy
Three weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook in which I outlined a baseline forecast for 2026 and into 2027, amidst many distortions and entanglements in economic data and trends. So much has hap
The Investment Implications of the Tariff Decision
On Friday, the Supreme Court released a long-awaited decision, ruling that the President’s imposition of tariffs, using the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, otherwise known as IEEPA, was illegal. The President held a press
Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook
Between taking a shower when I get up in the morning and another when I get home from running, I am a significant consumer of detangling solution. In my youth, an unruly shock of hair required liberal doses of the substance just to bring so
Real Economy Challenges
Last week saw dramatic moves in financial markets. Gold and silver, which rose very sharply last year and in January, suddenly lurched down before stabilizing. Bitcoin took a nosedive before achieving a significant, although partial, recove
The Federal Reserve – New Leadership, Same Landscape
On Friday, the President announced Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed Chair. Warsh has a track record of hawkishness from his previous stint as Fed governor. He has also annunciated a broad philosophy that the Fed has moved too far from its or
The Direction of the Fed
Amidst a torrent of unsettling international and domestic events, the week ahead could be very consequential for the Federal Reserve. The FOMC will hold its first meeting of the year on Tuesday and Wednesday. While they will likely leave in
