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International Equities: Looking Beneath the Currency Icing
Americans don’t like fruit cake. This issue comes up every December when Sari, having stolen the job from me, sets about making the family Christmas cake. It is a divine confection - currants, sultanas, cherries, candied peel and almonds, l
A Baseline Forecast for 2026
Forecasting the economy right now feels a bit like trying to carve a path through thick jungle undergrowth on a foggy day. There are multiple layers of confusion and a forecast has to address these issues first before tracing out a possible
Why Stocks are Outperforming the Economy
The Red River of the North starts at the confluence of the Bois de Sioux and Otter Tail rivers and forms most of the border between Minnesota and North Dakota. It then crosses into Manitoba and empties into Lake Winnipeg before its waters f
Forecasting the Fed’s Forecasts
On Wednesday, the Fed will hold its last FOMC meeting of the year. Their actions and communications could move interest rates across the yield curve and so are important for investors.
The Outlook for Autos
When I first arrived in America, America seemed to be all about cars. It was the early 1980s, and I had come over from Ireland to do a Ph.D. in economics at Michigan State University. The campus was strewn with the hand-me-down vehicles of
The Health of the Consumer
I was watching a football game over the weekend and I saw a giant lineman go down. He was in obvious pain and hobbled, assisted and very slowly, to the sideline. The TV commentators, to my amazement, said he didn’t look too bad and he was p
Why a 1:13 expansion feels like a 1:20 recession
In our age of overwhelming technological progress, I still cling to the simpler practices of my youth. I read books rather than tablets, write with an ink pen in cursive rather than text with my thumbs, and attempt to use mental arithmetic,
The Importance of Navigation in the Dark
I was rewatching Apollo 13 over the weekend - a fabulous movie, by the way, if you’ve never seen it - about how, in 1970, three astronauts returned safely to Earth following an explosion on their spacecraft, two days into a journey to the M
Oil, Inflation and the Fed: The Slide and the Rollercoaster
This quarter, we dropped the oil page from our Guide to the Markets. There are always exactly 65 pages in the Guide, so when we want to add a page, we have to get rid of one. The process is, unfortunately, democratic, so when my younger col
Going Broke Slowly: The Investment Implications of Still-Rising Federal Debt
One of the more challenging positions in football is that of place kicker for the visiting team. In theory, the job is simple – boot the ball through the middle of the uprights. However, there is a raucous crowd cheerfully doing its best to
The Investment Implications of the Government Shutdown
As we enter the second week of the government shutdown, markets appear unconcerned. Last week, the S&P500 rose to an all-time record high, 10-year Treasury yields edged down and, while the dollar slipped slightly, measures of volatility acr
Checking the Foundations of a Roaring Bull Market
As I get older, my memory gets a little foggier. That being said, I believe it was at lunch at a restaurant near our office on Friday, March 6th, 2009, when I and the then three other members of the Market Insights Team, Andy, Marlene and J
Truth or Consequences: The Fed’s Next Move
When engaged in the dark arts of foretelling the Fed’s words and actions, I have always adopted what might be called the “prudent economist rule”. What would a prudent economist, serving as a Fed banker, do - assuming that they were armed w
Rate Rescue Reality Check
Stocks rallied in the immediate aftermath of Friday’s dismal jobs report, with the S&P500 jumping 0.5% to an all-time high of 6,532 when the market opened at 9:30AM. While this gain faded to a loss by the end of the day, the initial surge c
Back from the Beach: Reviewing the Investment Landscape
American summers, much more so than in the rest of the world, are defined by two bookends: Memorial Day and Labor Day. As a result, the first week in September is always a time to review and plan. This is particularly important for investor
The Investment Implications of the Refund Surge
On August 7th, with little fanfare, the IRS announced that, as part of its phased implementation of the OBBBA, it would not be adjusting W2 or 1099 forms for the current calendar year but would provide guidance and new forms, in due course,
Why Money Doesn’t Talk Any More
One of the great challenges of modern life is avoiding distractions. In our daily lives, we are flooded by breaking news, music on planes, ads in taxis and little numbers, gazing up at us from phone apps, saying that somebody has something
The Inflation Outlook
The inflation temperature is about to rise. It should be a low-grade fever, triggered by tariff impacts but mitigated by low energy prices, declines in shelter inflation and global economic sluggishness. But it should also linger well above
The Investment Implications of Weaker Labor Supply
This is a particularly challenging time to try to develop and present a balanced view of the economic outlook and its implications for investors. This is partly due to dramatic changes in trade, immigration and fiscal policies that are just
The Fed Decisions
For investors, the week ahead will be dominated by the Fed decisions. Possibly, some AI chatbot will spot the obvious grammatical error in that last sentence and change it from “the Fed decisions” to “the Fed’s decision”. However, there are
Underreacting and then Overreacting to Policy Shocks
As you make your way through Terminal 5 in Heathrow airport, there are plenty of opportunities to buy a T-shirt bearing the slogan “Keep Calm and Carry On”. The wearer of such a garment, upon their return to the United States, is presumably
The Investment Implications of a Falling Dollar
Despite very significant shifts in U.S. economic policy and major geopolitical events, investors can look back at the first half of 2025 with some satisfaction. Through July 3rd, the S&P500 provided a total return of 7.5% for the year, desp
OBBBA and a Cold, Hot, Cold Forecast
On Tuesday, we will release our third quarter 2025 Guide to the Markets. On Wednesday, we will host conference calls with financial professionals to discuss the outlook. It’s an outlook dominated by the impact of dramatic policy changes on
Tariffs and Inflation
Investors this week will be focused on the implications of the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. While this is clearly a very significant event from a geopolitical perspective, it may be less important for financial markets. The ke
Economic Sogginess and the Market Party
When we bought our first home, the builder neglected to mention that it was built upon a river. Of course a river at the bottom of a garden is a charming sight. Something that seeps up through the cellar is less attractive, and so, in due c
The Macro Jigsaw
When I was growing up, school holidays weren’t packed with organized activities. Sometimes, to relieve the boredom of a rainy day, I would tackle a jigsaw – I remember one particularly challenging 1000-piece puzzle which, when completed, pr
Policy and the Investment Landscape: An Update
This week, after a very busy few months, I am putting down my pen, picking up my metaphorical spade and bucket and taking some vacation time. 2025, so far, has been a challenging year for analysts and it is tempting, as I’m trying to clear
A Softer Sort of Slowdown
There have only been two U.S. recessions since 2001 – the Great Financial Crisis and the Pandemic Recession. Both of these were huge – accounting for two of the only three times since the 1940s that the unemployment rate has vaulted to doub
Tracking the Economic Slowdown
A crowd is gathered around the sickbed of the economic expansion. Among the multitude are the workers, consumers and business people who would be most impacted by its demise. There are political partisans too, some fervently praying for rec
Recession Risks, Resilience and American Exceptionalism
Last weekend, I neglected to finish my Notes on the Week Ahead as I got caught up in watching the Masters. In truth, it was mostly a battle between Rory McIlroy’s emotions, which produced two double-bogeys in his final round, and his except
