- wöchentlichErscheinungsrhythmus
- 13 mintypische Länge
- vor 3 Tagenletzte Folge
Folgenzu den neuesten
Tariff Turmoil and Investment Strategy
One clear advantage of getting older, (and I can attest to many of its disadvantages), is that you learn from experience. The financial market chaos, following the President’s tariff announcement, is different from previous market slumps. E
Fiscal Fudge
I may have mentioned this before, but as a young lad, I had a very healthy appetite. Consequently, when deciding on a hobby, I prudently elected to go with “cooking”. My experiments included making fudge and my mother dutifully supplied me
The Wait and See Economy
I was running along the roads of our neighborhood last weekend when I came upon a small herd of deer. I often see these beautiful but dopey creatures at dawn as they wander aimlessly in the middle of the road. When a car or truck bears down
The Trouble with Tariffs
I was at a conference last week and a financial advisor asked me what I thought he should say when a client asked him what was so bad about tariffs. It’s a fair question. Many people who instinctively believe in free trade would still have
The Implications of Slowing Population Growth
In December, the Census Bureau announced that the U.S. population had grown by nearly 1% in the year ended July 1st, 2024, marking the strongest annual gain since 2001[1]. Given this, it seems strange to be already talking about slowing pop
The Growth Drag from Policy Uncertainty
In the four weeks since he took office, the president has issued an extraordinary number of executive orders, while promising dramatic change across the full reach of the federal government. While these policy moves have broad political, ge
Europe: The Slow and Steady Train
For investors, Europe seems like a train in a station, perpetually gathering steam and loading up for a long-delayed journey, but clearly advertising only a modest pace when it gets under way. Such has been the case for the European economy
The Investment Implications of the Trade War
On Saturday, the White House announced the imposition of heavy tariffs on goods exported from Mexico, Canada and China and all three nations announced their intention to retaliate. These tariffs threaten to raise prices and slow economic ac
White House Actions, Fed Reactions and Investing
This Wednesday, at 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve will release a statement on monetary policy. It will, as usual, be a brief and colorless document and will look paler still in comparison to the more than 60 executive orders, proclamations an
The Big Picture on Debt, Deficits and Interest Rates
“Unsustainable!” To quote Inigo Montoya: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means” For decades, journalists, economists, politicians, and central bankers have said that the U.S. federal debt is on an “unsus
Interest Rates, Inflation and the Uncertainty Tax
In football, it’s always better, at the snap of the ball to disguise your intentions. Are you going to pass or run the ball? Is it a zone defense or man-to-man? In business or in military maneuvers the same rule applies – keep them guessing
Stability and Extremes
Over the holiday season, we got to spend some time with our very charming granddaughter and, as a bonus, I am now fully re-acquainted with all the verses of “The Wheels on the Bus”. As we enter 2025, the American economy is rather like an o
Reading Between the Lines (On the Direction of Monetary Policy)
When testifying to the Senate Banking Committee back in 1987, the newly-appointed Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, provided some insight into his views on communication: “Since becoming a central banker”, he said, “I have learned to mumble wit
Initial Conditions
Many years ago, I worked for the Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis at the State of Michigan and, from time to time, Saul Hymans and his colleagues from the University of Michigan would visit the state government in Lansing to discuss the l
Irish Lessons
This week will be full of market-moving economic data. We expect purchasing manager surveys and light-vehicle sales to indicate steady demand in November, as investors await Friday’s jobs report. Recent data on unemployment claims point to
Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook
I’ve been running my own econometric model of the U.S. economy for almost 30 years now. The basic structure is simple. You start by forecasting the components of demand, that is to say, consumption, investment, trade and government spending
The Investment Implications of the Republican Sweep
The most urgent task facing investors in the wake of the 2024 elections is figuring out how much of the Trump agenda, as broadly outlined on the campaign trail, will be put into effect. A full and literal implementation across taxes, trade
Finding Balance in a Broadening Expansion
The last few weeks have seen spectacular weather in New England, with warm temperatures and blue skies almost every day. By now, we would normally have stored the back-yard furniture inside to prevent it getting ruined over the winter. But
The Deficit, the Election and Interest Rates
Growing up in Dublin, I had a well-earned reputation as a child of very healthy appetite. At birthday parties, I’d always make sure, at the outset, to get my share of any cocktail sausages, cucumber sandwiches or Rice Krispie treats going a
Four Banks and the Dollar
On Tuesday, the Commerce Department will publish international trade data for August. The numbers will, undoubtedly, show a deficit – the U.S. has run a trade deficit every year since 1975. This, in turn, implies that the U.S. dollar exchan
The Investment Implications of the Wealth Surge
I have a habit, or so my wife tells me, of staring intently, for minutes at a time, into an open refrigerator, in search of one particular item. When she can no longer stand it, or when the binging of the refrigerator alarm informs the worl
The Investment Implications of a $769,900,000,000 Mistake
On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, commonly known as the BEA, will release revised data on the national income and product accounts going back to the start of 2019. This is an annual process, usually only mildly interesting to ec
Previewing the Fed: Easy Does It
Cutting short-term interest rates from a peak is a little like hauling a piano down a flight of stairs. The operation is best done slowly and with care. The Federal Reserve will probably show some awareness of this in their actions and comm
The Jobs Mosaic
On Wednesday of next week, the Federal Reserve will almost certainly embark on its long-anticipated easing cycle. However, whether the first cut in the federal funds rate is 25 or 50 basis points is still very much in doubt. This is a cruci
Demographics, Debt, the Dollar and Apocalyptic Assets
The U.S. working age population is growing relatively slowly. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that the U.S. population aged 18 to 64 grew by less than 0.1% over the past year.
Jackson Hole and the Speed of Fed Easing
Every August, for more than 40 years now, the Federal Reserve has held a retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It has become an important venue for Fed communications and investors this week will be focused on Jerome Powell’s speech, to be deli
The Outlook for Housing in a Macro Game of Inches
The last two weeks have provided a vivid reminder of how sensitive markets can be to small changes in the macro-economic outlook. With a nudge down in oil prices, the Fed’s 2% inflation goal suddenly seems achievable within a matter of mont
The Slowdown Scenario
We live at a time when extreme voices get the most attention and so it is tempting, following a string of weak economic numbers, to yell the word “recession”. However, a balanced assessment of demand and supply suggests that we are, thus fa
Concentration Risk as the Fed gets Ready to Cut
My wife, Sari, and I love old movies and one of our favorites is the Long, Long Trailer, staring Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz. Desi and Lucy are newly-weds who decide, instead of buying a house, to purchase a trailer home which they hitch on
Is 4.1% Unemployment a Recession Warning?
Despite a slightly higher-than-expected payroll job gain, the June employment report was on the soft side, with downward revisions to payroll gains from prior months, a drop in temporary employment and only modest gains in wages. However, t
