What is confirmation bias?

0:00 Welcome to Philosophy is not boring by Kidopoly.com. I'm Mira! And I'm Finn! If you haven't already, tap follow wherever you're listening so you never miss an episode.

0:10 Hey Mira, what are we talking about today? Is it something spooky? Or a giant space mystery?

0:17 Well, it's actually a mystery that happens right inside your own head. Picture this. Imagine you are absolutely convinced your little brother ate the last chocolate chip cookie from the jar. You walk into his room and boom, you see crumbs all over his blanket. Case closed, right?

0:35 Oh, definitely. He is 100% guilty. I would be demanding a replacement cookie immediately. No trial needed.

0:44 But wait, what if he was just eating toast in bed? You didn't even look in the kitchen to see if the cookie was still sitting in the jar.

0:51 Wait. Huh. You're right. I guess I just saw what I wanted to see because I was already mad at him.

0:59 Exactly! You found one clue that fit your story and you stopped looking. Today we are asking, why do we only notice the clues that prove us right? And why is the smartest trick in the world actually trying to prove yourself wrong?

1:13 Trying to prove myself wrong? That sounds kind of backward. Usually, if I'm arguing with someone, I really, really want to prove I'm right.

1:25 We all do. But when we only look for things that agree with us, our brain is playing a sneaky trick on us. It's like wearing special sunglasses that only let you see things you already believe. Everything else goes completely invisible.

1:40 What do you mean by invisible? Like, what does that look like in real life?

1:46 Okay, imagine you decide a new game at recess is totally unfair. From then on, every single time you lose a turn or miss a point, your brain goes, aha, see, I knew it was so unfair. But every time you get a lucky roll or a really good turn, your brain just ignores it and forgets it even happened.

2:06 Whoa, I think I've actually done that. I only remembered the bad turns because they proved my point, and I just skipped over the good ones.

2:16 Exactly. In psychology, there is a famous name for this. It's called confirmation bias. It means we are biased, or tilted, toward confirming the ideas we already have.

2:28 How do we know our brains do this? Did someone discover it? Or is it just something people figured out over time?

2:35 Someone definitely proved it. Back in 1960, in London, an English psychologist named Peter Wason was thinking about this exact problem. He noticed that humans are absolutely terrible at changing their minds once they decide something.

2:50 Yeah, if my mind is made up, it's pretty much super glued shut.

2:55 Right. Peter Wason wanted to figure out exactly why our brains do this. So he didn't just ask people boring questions. He created a sneaky, clever puzzle to trap them in their own thinking. And almost everyone fell for it.

3:12 Ooh, a trap puzzle! I don't know how I feel about that. What was it? Am I going to fall for it too?

3:18 Let's find out. We can play it right now. I'll play the part of Peter Wyson, and you can be the person taking the test in his laboratory. Ready?

3:28 I'm ready. Hit me with the puzzle. I bet I can solve it.

3:32 Okay, here is how it works. I have a secret rule in my head for a set of three numbers. Your job is to figure out my secret rule. I will give you one hint to start. The numbers 2, 4, 6 following my rule.

3:47 Okay, so 2, 4, 6. And how do I guess the rule?

3:52 You can test your guess by giving me any set of three numbers, and I will just say, yes, that fits the rule, or no, that breaks the rule. When you are totally sure you know what the rule is, you tell me.

4:07 Oh, that is so easy. Okay, if your hint is 246, let me test 81012. Yes, 81012 fits my rule. I knew it! Okay, let me test one more, just to be absolutely sure. How about 2022-24? Yes, that also fits my rule. Boom! I have totally solved it. The secret rule is even numbers going up by two.

4:35 That is exactly what almost everyone in the 1960 experiment guessed. And Finn, you are completely, 100% wrong.

4:46 Wait, what? How can I be wrong? My numbers fit perfectly. 8, 10, 12 is going up by 2, and they are even.

4:55 Your numbers did fit, but your rule is still wrong. Just like Peter Wason's test subjects, you fell right into the confirmation bias trap. You walked right into it.

5:07 But but how is it a trap? If 8, 10, and 12 work, isn't that proof? I don't understand how my rule can be wrong if my numbers were right.

5:16 It is proof that your specific numbers work, but it doesn't prove your rule is the only rule. Are you ready for the real answer? My actual secret rule was simply any three numbers going up.

5:29 Wait, any three numbers going up? Like one, two, three?

5:34 Yes, one, two, three would fit. Or five, ten, a hundred, or even three, seven, ninety-nine.

5:42 Whoa, so my rule was way too specific. I thought it had to be even numbers, and it had to go up by exactly two.

5:49 Exactly! Now, here is where Peter Wason's genius comes in. Why didn't you find the real rule? Because you only tested numbers that confirmed your guess.

6:00 Oh, you're right. I thought the rule was even numbers going up by two, so I only tested even numbers going up by two. I just wanted to see if I was right.

6:11 Yep, you were hunting for a yes. You wanted me to tell you that you were smart. But what would have happened if you tried to prove yourself wrong?

6:20 What if you tested one, two, three? If I tested one, two, three, those aren't even numbers. So if you said yes that fits, my whole idea of even numbers would be destroyed immediately.

6:32 Bingo, to find the real truth, you had to test a number that would break your idea. You had to hunt for a no. But almost nobody does that. We all just hunt for yeses that make us feel good.

6:45 That is wild. It's like we are so scared to find out we are wrong that we only ask questions that tell us we are right. We just want to stay in our little bubble. Exactly.

6:57 And think about what this means for your real life. This isn't just about math puzzles or numbers in a laboratory.

7:03 Yeah, how does this actually show up for me? I don't spend a lot of time guessing number rules.

7:09 Think about an argument with a friend. Let's say you believe your friend is ignoring you on purpose. Once you believe that, you will notice every single time they walk past without waving, you collect the yeses. But you will completely miss the time they smiled at you in class, because it doesn't fit your story.

7:29 So I'm basically making myself miserable by only collecting clues that confirm the bad stuff. I'm doing the 246 puzzle, but with my friends.

7:39 We all do it. But now that you know about Peter Wyson and the 246 task, you have a kind of superpower. Next time you are totally sure you are right about something, you can stop and ask, what would prove me wrong?

7:52 Like hunting for the no. If I think a video game level is completely impossible, I should stop looking at how hard the jumps are and start looking for a hidden path I missed.

8:02 Exactly! And here is a mind-bending fun fact. People have known this is a problem for thousands of years. The ancient Greek philosophers used to argue about how humans trick themselves. And today, scientists have to design their experiments very carefully so they don't accidentally trick themselves into finding what they want to find.

8:23unknown Haha.

8:24 So even super smart scientists have to fight their own brains to stop hunting for yeses. That makes me feel a little bit better.

8:31 It should. It's just how human brains work. The smartest thing you can ever do is try to break your own ideas. Alright, Finn, it is time for the quiz! Let's see how much you remember from today's puzzle.

8:44 Are you ready? Okay, I'm ready. I will try not to fall into any confirmation bias traps this time.

8:51 First question. Who was the psychologist who created this famous number puzzle in 1960? Next one. Let's see if you remember the exact puzzle. What were the three starting numbers he gave people? Question three. What is the psychological term for when we only look for clues that prove us right? Here is number four.

9:26 What was the actual secret rule for those three numbers? Last question. What is the smartest thing to do if you want to find the real truth? Great job! Let's go through the answers and see how you did. The first answer is the psychologist was Peter Wyson. For question two, the three starting numbers were two, four, six.

10:01 Number three, the answer is it is called confirmation bias. For question four, the real secret rule was simply any three numbers going up in order. And the final answer is the smartest thing to do is try to prove yourself wrong.

10:20 You know, it is just so weird to think our brains actually want to trick us into always being right. It feels like my brain should be on my side.

10:29 It really is strange, but it kind of takes the pressure off too. It means it is totally normal to be wrong sometimes. And finding out you are wrong is how you actually learn.

10:41 Yeah, I'm definitely going to try hunting for the no from now on. I want to see if I can catch my brain playing tricks on me.

10:49 I love that! And hey, if this episode made you think differently about being wrong, please leave us a five-star review. Just scroll down on your app and tap the stars.

10:59 And make sure you follow this show and go give our sister shows a listen and a follow too. History and science is not boring, and maths is not boring.

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11:17 See you next time on Philosophy is not boring.