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RenMac

von Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

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  1. RenMac Off-Script: Clarida Gives RenMac Clarity

    Former Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the evolving Fed reaction function amid a potential transition to a Warsh-led regime and why markets are struggling to price policy. The team breaks down how Mid

  2. RenMac Off-Script: Good Friday & Dark Crosses

    RenMac breaks down a noisy March payrolls report that’s sending the wrong signal to the Fed, why markets may be misreading a slowing nominal economy, and how rising real rates—not inflation fears—are driving the recent repricing in risk ass

  3. RenMac Off-Script: Strait Talk*

    Former U.S. National Security official Michael Allen joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and why reestablishing control is critical to global energy markets and U.S. strategic credibility.

  4. RenMac Off-Script: Fear Factor(s)

    RenMac breaks down how quadruple witching and gamma dynamics could amplify near-term volatility as markets reprice a fragile macro environment. The team unpacks an oil-driven supply shock colliding with sticky inflation and softening growth

  5. RenMac Off-Script: Escort No Shows & Stripper Wells*

    Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and why a prolonged disruption could remove up to 20% of global oil supply and push oil to $200. The team breaks

  6. RenMac Off-Script: Crude Awakening

    RenMac breaks down how the Iran conflict and rising oil prices are colliding with an already softening labor market and late-cycle market dynamics. The team discusses the “Hamilton Trigger” for energy, February’s weak jobs report, why the F

  7. RenMac Off-Script: Is The Bull Case &@#% !?

    RenMac breaks down why light tax refunds and narrow consumption growth are challenging the bullish economic narrative, even as AI capex continues to carry investment. The team explores falling Treasury yields despite “good” data, extreme te

  8. RenMac Off-Script: Credit Concerns

    RenMac breaks down a market that’s still trending higher but losing momentum, as 2-year yields flirt with cycle lows and leadership rotates between cyclicals and defensives. The team discusses why GDP and inflation prints are being distorte

  9. RenMac Off-Script: AI Bifurcation

    RenMac unpacks cooler inflation that keeps Fed cuts in play just as rising job anxiety and narrow hiring trends point to softer labor conditions beneath the surface. The team debates the growing AI vs. non-AI market bifurcation, fragile tec

  10. RenMac Off-Script: Big Tech Faces Capex Conundrum

    CNBC’s Sara Eisen joins the RenMac Off-Script team to unpack why Big Tech’s AI spend is suddenly spooking markets, cracking momentum trades, and pressuring software stocks. The team breaks down softening labor signals beneath solid GDP grow

  11. RenMac Off-Script: Warsh Your Hands

    RenMac unpacks the market fallout from Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading Fed chair candidate, the risks building in parabolic trades like gold and crypto and why sentiment extremes and “hair-trigger” psychology make these trades vulnerabl

  12. RenMac Off-Script: Mysterious Market Reactions

    RenMac digs into the growing political stakes around the Fed chair decision, why global yields—especially in Japan—are reshaping risk appetite, and how improving breadth, regional banks, and small caps point to healthier market internals. T

  13. RenMac Off-Script: Live From The Edge

    RenMac recaps key takeaways from the firm’s 2026 Investor Forum, where stronger near-term data clashes with persistent weakness in housing and labor. Dutta argues inflation pressures continue to ease and deGraaf explains why that cooling in

  14. RenMac Off-Script: Big Oil: Pump for Trump

    RenMac digs into a complicated January jobs report that dampens near-term rate-cut expectations as Dutta warns that unemployment risks are rising beneath stable headlines, while deGraaf points to an updated Market Cycle Clock, falling yield

  15. RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Hits the Slopes

    RenMac kicks off 2026 with a wide-ranging discussion on the political reality around affordability and inflation, asset allocation myths, and what to watch as ISM and employment data kick off the year. Dutta argues inflation pressures are e

  16. RenMac Off-Script: Ronaldo, Trade, Inflation & What Investors Missed in ’25. + What’s on Tap For ‘26

    RenMac closes out 2025 by reflecting on the year’s biggest macro, market, and political surprises as the team looks ahead to early 2026. deGraaf explains why seasonality and easing inflation remain underappreciated tailwinds, Dutta highligh

  17. RenMac Off-Script: Data Gone Wiles

    RenMac breaks down a pivotal week where inflation cooled but global yields surged, suggesting the global bond markets—not just the U.S.— may be driving the next macro chapter. Dutta argues first principles matter on unemployment and inflati

  18. RenMac Off-Script: Fed Forecast Folly*

    RenMac welcomes WSJ Correspondent Nick Timiraos to unpack a pivotal week for monetary policy. The team digs into why the January jobs print will determine whether the next cut is “live,” how hawkish dissents shaped Fed communications, and w

  19. RenMac Off-Script: Why The Maestro Matters

    RenMac breaks down why forecasting skill and real-world market instincts are critical for the Fed as it faces rising unemployment and a slowing economy. The team unpacks the administration’s escalating pressure on Maduro, surprising weaknes

  20. RenMac Off-Script: Stewie Can't Be Fed Chair

    RenMac kicks off Black Friday with a dive into consumer weakness as deGraaf outlines why seasonality is stacked against discretionary stocks, and what recent oversold signals in SPACs, semis, and Bitcoin mean for market trend shifts. Dutta

  21. RenMac Off-Script: Tequila Soaked Nights

    RenMac breaks down the market’s ugliest day since 2018 as deGraaf explains the rare “outside reversal” and what oversold signals in Bitcoin, NDX, and speculative tech mean going forward. Dutta argues the Fed is risking a policy mistake as u

  22. RenMac Off-Script: Trad(ing) Tensions

    RenMac welcomes trade expert Kelly Ann Shaw to unpack a whirlwind week of global trade deals and she explains how the White House is using tariff recalibration to ease consumer pain ahead of the midterms. Dutta rails against the Fed’s “hawk

  23. RenMac Off-Script: A Probabilities Business

    RenMac discusses rising layoff signals and a Fed seemingly blind to softening labor data, Trump’s tariff maneuvering and how SCOTUS and Congress may (or may not) push back, the disconnect between affordability concerns and political rhetori

  24. RenMac Off-Script: Enough Bad to Be Good

    RenMac welcomes CNBC’s Mike Santoli to unpack the market’s bullish resilience amid growing macro cracks. The team debates Powell’s “hawkish cut” and its hit to mortgage rates, why housing remains in recession despite Fed easing, and how the

  25. RenMac Off-Script: Bubble Bandwagons

    RenMac breaks down a cooler-than-expected CPI print that cements the case for further Fed cuts and tempers tariff-fueled inflation fears. Neil dissects how weak rents and slowing jobs are driving disinflation, while Jeff explores the anatom

  26. RenMac Off-Script: Shooting The Hostages

    RenMac unpacks rising credit concerns as regional bankswobble and private equity stress builds, contrasting credit risk with last year’s duration scare. Jeff draws upon lessons from Sir Isaac Newton’s South Sea bubble FOMO as today’s liquid

  27. RenMac Legends Podcast with Michelle Meyer

    Neil Dutta recently caught up with Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at the MasterCard Economics Institute. From her perch at MasterCard, Michelle has a front seat to the US consumer. In this episode of the RenMac Legends Podcast, we talk abo

  28. RenMac Off-Script: The Golden Age

    RenMac debates whether the Fed’s planned cuts can offset aslowing labor market and rising unemployment, as markets bet liquidity will keep equities buoyant. The team discusses the deepening government shutdown and its missing “pain point,”

  29. RenMac Off-Script: Shutdown Shenanigans

    RenMac recaps client takeaways from London and Chicago,weighs the rising odds of a prolonged shutdown with Trump threatening permanent layoffs, and breaks down how tariffs, industrial policy, and Big Pharma deals are reshaping the landscape

  30. RenMac Off-Script: Productivity Push or Problem

    RenMac welcomes guest Sam Ro as the team unpacks Feddynamics as Trump appointees push aggressive cuts, rising odds of a government shutdown with threats of federal layoffs, and the latest wave of sectoral tariffs. They debate whether coolin

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