A few drops of diesel from Russia and Palantir hits new all-time high.

Today we look at the Russia diesel deal that will, spoiler alert, fail to meaningfully impact the supply situation for any length of time, but also consider the risk of a Ukraine-US rift. Elsewhere, macro traders are holding their breath for this Wednesday's US September CPI report, Palantir has just bolted to a new all time high and earnings season is set to kick off in earnest tomorrow. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• Ole's latest rundown of the weekly US futures COT positioning report (home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/cot-on-…).

• Token prices are collapsing while GPU rents are steady at high levels - something doesn't add up (x.com/hkuppy/status/2109328394269638920).

• Could OpenAI and/or Anthropic be scheming to manipulate US authorities into giving them a bailout and oligopoly status by triggering a harmful hacking event? Here's a possible playbook for the conspiracy theorists (x.com/ronaldoputera/status/2108541767800775151).

• A geopolitical strategist says that all of the stress points globally are related and part of a wider war (youtube.com/watch?v=VxbDGbkRgDU). Don't know what to make of his arguments, but worth considering.

• FT Big Read looks at Trump's struggle to maintain control of the Senate (ft.com/content/62bab2c8-d4e2-4ec2-a911-80439f6…). If polling is accurate, he should lose both houses, but polling has been very inaccurate (axios.com/2026/10/10/poll-democratic-wave-ques…) in many recent US election cycles.

• One forced seller of US treasuries may stop selling soon - a look at the US mortgage bond market (ft.com/content/a04ef3b4-2fcf-48f9-ab34-2c40c39…) - it is big, as in, really big.

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