Credit conditions are ratcheting tighter.

Today a look at signs of extreme tightening in credit concerns for a few key names even as stock and bond markets saw a quiet day and the general drift in credit conditions was only mildly negative. Also, a look at the first incoming US earnings reports and negative reception of some of the best numbers from Goldman Sachs. This and much more, especially on the many links below, on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Links

• The Convexity Maven Harley Bassman is concerned about negative convexity for the longest US bonds (convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/…). Don't understand? It's important stuff and worth trying to wrap your head around it.

• Paul Tudor Jones states his case on CNBC (youtube.com/watch?v=gMIOsOMhy6A) (audio only link) for ugly headwinds for US stocks in 2027.

• FT Exclusive covers Marine Le Pen's ambitions to transform and reduce the EU's powers (ft.com/content/60d09841-052a-44f3-a8ae-52c38fd…) - the coming election season and French debt situation are critical for the future of Europe. Round two will be the eventual German response if/when she becomes president next year.

• A WSJ article looks into whether China's population is over-reported to the tune of 130 million (wsj.com/world/china/a-demographic-mirage-may-b…), with researchers using clever data gathering techniques.

• WSJ exclusive looks at bad behaviour by Republican Senate candidate for Texas Ken Paxton (wsj.com/politics/policy/ken-paxton-texas-senat…), who was filmed partying in Dubai with a mistress and not one, but two fugitives on the run from US criminal prosecution.

• History of the crypto wars (right to make encrypted communication) and the risks of government authorities having back doors to everything that bad actors - and now especially AI - might be able to hack into as well (pluralistic.net/2026/10/13/petards-r-us/#nobus).

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