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Everything semiconductors and AI
Covering the spectrum
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Ep. 042 - GDPx: The Benchmark for Frontier AI
SemiAnalysis just launched GDPx, a benchmark built with 14 specialized data partners across 11 domains where frontier intelligence earns the highest returns. Even the best model scores just 12%. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) sits down with Ma
Ep. 041 - EMERGENCY: Anthropic’s S-1 Is Here (Tokenomics/ Markets) | Doug O’Laughlin, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Joey Brookhart, Jordan Nanos
Anthropic filed its S-1: revenue per dollar of compute is up 5.2x since Q1 2025, a customer who spent $1 last year now spends $9, and incremental gross margins are running near 90%. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos), Doug O'Laughlin (@fabknowledg
Ep. 040 - ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool, and Its Patents Show How (AI Supply Chain) | Jordan Nanos, Howie, Sherry Zhang
Every hybrid bonder on the market today brings the die to the wafer. ASML's patents bring the wafer to the die.Sherry Zhang and Howie join Jordan Nanos (@jordananos) to dig into the patents behind ASML's die-to-wafer hybrid bonder, why a tr
Ep. 039 - [EMERGENCY] Our Numbers Are "Insane." Here's the Proof. (Datacenters) | Jeremie Ontiveros, Reyk Knuhtsen, Jordan Nanos
Brad Gerstner put our 43 gigawatt forecast for 2027 on All-In, then again in his BG2 sit-down with Jensen, and called it too aggressive. The consensus counter sits near 25 GW, built on moratorium headlines and grid connection fears. Jordan
Ep. 038 - GLM 5.3 on AMD, NVIDIA, and Chinese Chips From Day One (InferenceX) | Kimbo Chen, Wenyao Gao, Jordan Nanos
GLM 5.3 only attends to the tokens that matter. It still has to keep every one of them. Kimbo Chen (@kimbochen) and Wenyao Gao (@gao_wenyao) join Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) to dig into AMD catching NVIDIA on InferenceX, how post-training a
Ep. 037 - Who's Funding the $11 Trillion AI Buildout? (Capital Markets) | Dan Nishball, Jordan Nanos
H100 rental prices went up, on a GPU that should be sliding down its depreciation curve. That curve is what lenders underwrite. Daniel Nishball (@dnishball) kicks off our new Compute Capital Markets group by following the money through Nvid
Ep. 036 - $200 Buys $12,000 of Opus Tokens, We Bought Every Plan (AI Cloud TCO) | Max Kan, Jordan Nanos, Andrew Megalaa
Pay Anthropic $200 a month and you can pull $12,000 of Opus 5.5 tokens at API pricing. Max Kan (@maxkan) and Andrew Megalaa bought every plan, OpenAI, Meta, xAI, MiniMax, Moonshot, Z.ai, Cursor, and measured every token type to find the cei
Ep. 035 - Tech DD’s, Performance Projections, Benchmarks, Supply Chain, Investment Thesis (Consulting)| Abhilash Jain, Jordan Nanos
Jordan (@JordanNanos) and Abhilash (@AbhilashJain17) discuss the clients SemiAnalysis consulting serves, custom projects like the inference simulator, how client work turns into research products, neocloud due diligence, and why SLAs decide
Ep. 034 - Engrams: How DeepSeek Offloads KV Cache to DRAM and SSD (Core Research) | Jordan Nanos, Cam Quilici, Alec Ibarra, Bryan Shan
The InferenceX team is back after two months. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) is joined by Cam Quilici (@noslawextratost), Bryan Shan, and Alec Ibarra to discuss Engram and DRAM offloading, the AgentX benchmark and its profit calculator, TPU v7
Ep. 033 - ClusterMAX 3.0 Is Here! Neoclouds Ranked (Neoclouds, GPUs) | Sam Harshe, Pratt Bhatt, Jordan Nanos
ClusterMAX 3.0 is here. Sam Harshe (@sharshe02) and Pratt Bhatt (@PrathmeshBhat19) join Jordan Nanos (@jordannanos) after months of testing 77 GPU clouds. Some moved up, some moved down. Health checks, cache hit rates, NCCL recipes, agentic
Ep. 032 - 300 Datacenter Bans, 3 Projects Delayed: Moratoriums Explained (Datacenter, Energy) | Maya Barkin, Reyk Knühtsen, Jordan Nanos
More than 300 towns, cities, and counties have voted to pause data centers in the past 18 months. Maya Barkin (@mayabarkin) and Reyk Knühtsen (@robotknower) from the SemiAnalysis Data Center, Energy, and Industrials team join Jordan Nanos (
Ep. 031 - EMERGENCY EPISODE: Are We Doomed? | Jordan Nanos, Doug O'Laughlin, Max Kan, Joey Brookhart
Emergency episode. Doug O'Laughlin (@Fabknowledge) , Joey Brookhart (@SaasquatchC), and Max Kan (@maxkan) join Jordan (@JordanNanos) to talk through Dario's "We Must Pace the Frontier" blog and the responses from Sam Altman and David Sacks.
Ep. 030 - Long Live the Short King: Why 4-HI HBM Wins (Memory) | Myron Xie, Jordan Nanos
NVIDIA previewed Rubin Ultra at 1TB of HBM per package. The part that ships will carry 192GB. Myron Xie and Jordan Nanos get into how the design fell that far, why the reason is supply and not performance, and why shipping less memory per c
Ep. 029 - Modular Data Centers Cut Build Time to 12 Months (Datacenter, Energy) | Nico Bontigui, Jordan Nanos, Nigel Chiang, Eric Wen
Traditional data center builds ran 18 to 24 months, sometimes past three years. Modular construction cuts that to 12. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) sits down with Eric Wen, Nigel Chiang, and Nico Bontigui to map what modular actually means, f
Ep. 028 - Most Neoclouds Suck At Security: How Agents Hacked Hugging Face (Neoclouds, Security) | Doug O'Laughlin, Sam Harshe, Jordan Nanos
This week Doug, Sam and Jordan discuss the OpenAI vs HuggingFace security incident and our recent article on Neocloud security ahead of ClusterMAX 3.0 Full article: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/most-neoclouds-suck-at-security 0:00
Ep. 027 - OpenAI Jalapeño: Better Than Nvidia Blackwell (Accelerators)
This week Bryan, Myron and Jordan discuss our recent article on OpenAI Jalapeño. They cover the performance, architecture, programming model, implications for NVIDIA and more.1:05 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hj_ffVldQZA&t=65s) Jalapeno
Ep. 026 - PJM's $12B Modeling Mistake Is Hitting Ratepayers Again (Datacenter, Energy) | Robert Boswall, Jordan Nanos
PJM overpaid $12 billion across two capacity auctions, and the same modeling error is set to repeat in an upcoming emergency auction. Robert Boswall (@RobertBoswall) and Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) break down how the largest grid in America
Ep. 25 - DYLAN IS HERE, LIVE! | Dylan Patel & Jordan Nanos
Dylan joins the pod today, recorded live from our SF office. Jordan and Dylan discuss SemiAnalysis's AI spend, the model that escaped during training, AI rollups eating private equity, new accelerators vs NVIDIA, and whether the pod gives a
Ep. 024 - SpaceX's 10GW Plan Drives $300B ARR by 2027 (Datacenter, Energy) | Reyk Knuhtsen, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Jordan Nanos
OpenAI and Anthropic are adding close to $30 billion of ARR per month, and the driver is gross margin expansion, not new compute. Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO) and Reyk Knuhtsen (@robotknower) join Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) to tr
Ep. 023 - Everyone Leaves Google, Elon Forecasts 1T ARR, Reflecting On GPT-5, Building Personalized Software (Roundtable) | Jon Y, Doug O'Laughlin, Jordan Nanos
Jeff Dean and the Gemini leads are leaving Google. Jon Y (@asianometry) makes his FIRST appearance to unpack the exodus with Doug O'Laughlin (@fabknowledge) and Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos). The crew debates the Demis CEO question, whether G
Ep. 022 - Market Drawdown, Historic Bubbles, Funding The Buildout, AI Politics (Doug is Back)
Doug is back this week! Timestamps: 00:00 Market Update 07:02 Comparing to Past Bubbles in Taiwan and Korea 10:08 Memory Prices, LTAs, and Market Cycles 18:11 Future Demand for AI and Model Usage 37:40 Scaling Laws and Supply Constraints 44
Ep. 021 - The AI Project Trinity: Capital, Offtake, Data Center (Datacenter, Energy) | Dan Nishball, Jordan Nanos, Zane Fong, Kang Wen Cheang
AI and datacenter CapEx hits $11 trillion cumulatively from 2024 to 2029, and $7.1 trillion of that needs funding, roughly 75% debt financed. Dan Nishball (@dnishball), Zane Fong (linkedin.com/in/zanefongzq), and Kang Wen Cheang (linkedin.c
Ep. 020 - Anthropic vs OpenAI Usage, Margins, Meta Compute, Future of MSL (Tokenomics) | Crystual Huang, Max Kan, Joey Brookhart, Jordan Nanos
Coding drives over 70% of lab API revenue, and token austerity policies mostly miss the point. Crystal (@crystalthegg), Max Kan (@maxkan), and Joey Brookhart (@SaasquatchC) break down why blocking teams from Opus saves nothing, while power
[Emergency Episode] Moonshot’s Kimi K3 has Arrived! China has a Frontier Model
A year ago, the big three was OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. Things have changed.Moonshot's Kimi K3 sits above Gemini on every composite benchmark, and it's open source in 10 days.New episode: what K3 reveals about frontier margins, model s
Ep. 019 - Inside the STEEL Lab: From Package to Transistor (Teardown Lab) | Afzal Ahmad, Andrew Wagner, Jordan Nanos
SMIC's N+3 node shrank the M0 layer over 15% and cut SRAM area 10 to 20%, all without EUV. SemiAnalysis built a lab just for that; Andrew Wagner and Afzal Ahmad walk Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) through the STEEL teardown of Huawei's Kirin 9
Ep. 018 - Stop Saying Half of 2026 US Datacenter Capacity Is Canceled (Datacenter, Energy) | Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Reyk Knuhtsen, Ellie Holbrook, Jordan Nanos
Bloomberg said half of 2026 US data center capacity is delayed. The SemiAnalysis Data Center, Energy, and Industrials team pulled the underlying report and found a broken denominator. Amazon alone built 4GW in 2025 and is adding 5GW plus in
Ep. 017 - DeepSeek V4 and Huawei Ascend NPU Performance (InferenceX) | Kimbo Chen, Cam Quilici, Bryan Shan, Jordan Nanos
DeepSeek V4 claims a 100x KVcache reduction versus a standard MoE model, hitting 1M context length through compressed sparse attention and heavily compressed attention. Kimbo (@Kimbochen), Cam Quilici (@noslawextratost), Bryan Shan join Jor
Ep. 016 - What Unitree's Evolution Means For Robotics (Robotics) | Jordan Nanos, Reyk Knuhtsen, Niko Ciminelli
Unitree is going public, boasting 67% gross margins on its humanoid robots. Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos), Reyk Knuhtsen (@robotknower), and Niko Ciminelli discuss how the Chinese company achieves this through aggressive pricing, rapid iterat
Ep. 015 - DG Matrix Explains 800V DC vs Legacy AC Distribution (Datacenter, Energy) | Jordan Nanos, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Nicolas Bontigui, Haroon Inam
NVIDIA's next architecture will demand 800V DC and datacenters can't wait to build the infrastructure. Haroon Inam, CEO and Co-Founder of DG Matrix, joins Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos), Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO), and Nicolas Bont
Ep. 014 - Finding Miscompiles For Fun, Not Profit (AI Infrastructure) | Justin Lebar & Jordan Nanos
Justin Lebar (jlebar.com) recently spent $10,000 in an afternoon, uncovering critical miscompiles across NVIDIA's PTXAS, LLVM's AMD GPU, and X86 backends. He joins Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) to detail his methodology, which combined tradit
