Persian Gulf Shock, Tariff Refunds, and the Next Wave of Surcharges

Back from TPM, the team dives into the biggest forces reshaping ocean shipping right now.
This week’s episode covers:
• Demand data and a widening imbalance on Asia to Europe, plus what that means for headhaul pricing
• How parcel and DTC trade lanes are shifting as brands rethink sourcing and resilience
• The latest on IEEPA being ruled unlawful, what “refunds” might actually mean, and why the importer of record matters
• Section 122 tariffs, the 150 day clock, and what comes next
• The Strait of Hormuz disruption, end-of-voyage declarations, cargo being discharged at alternate ports, and the surge of emergency surcharges
• Why some fuel surcharges risk being blunt, not trade-specific, and potentially duplicative for shippers already paying variable fuel mechanisms
• How index-linked contracts and freight derivatives can help manage exposure when markets reprice fast