Rate Rally, Hormuz Memorandum, and an 88% Chance of El Niño

Rates on Asia-North Europe and Asia-US West Coast are surging, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been signed, and El Niño is now official with an 88% chance of being historically severe. This week Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all three.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
• NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates up $1,000 in a month with futures pointing higher still, and Asia-USWC breaking above $4,000 per 40-foot with a volatility spike driving record hedging activity using the NYFI index
• Why the rate rally is being driven by supply and demand fundamentals, not Hormuz fuel surcharges, and what CMA-CGM's $4,000 peak season surcharge announcement signals about carrier confidence
• The US-Iran memorandum of understanding: what it says, what it does not say, and why AIS data showed no change in vessel movement through the strait in the first 48 hours
• Piracy resurgence in the Gulf of Aden and three attacks in two days including one on a Maersk feeder vessel
• El Niño confirmed and now forecast as potentially the strongest on record: what Panama Canal shippers need to plan for now
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