Monday - July 6, 2026

Today's Post - bahnsen.co/4bvLEBZ

In the Monday Dividend Cafe, the host recaps a post–three-day weekend market rally with the Dow closing above 53,000 for the first time, the S&P 500 up 0.72%, and the Nasdaq up over 1%, while the 10-year Treasury remained around 4.47%. He notes TIP spreads show reduced inflation expectations even as longer yields imply stronger real growth, arguing the market can’t simultaneously justify Fed hikes on rising inflation expectations and claim the market is wrong as expectations fall; he also discusses futures pricing that still implies mostly one hike. He highlights market weakness as rotational rather than systemic, with communication services and tech leading and defensives lagging. Economic discussion includes disappointing June job growth and downward revisions alongside a lower unemployment rate driven by falling participation. He flags Florida housing supply, price cuts, and loss-making sales as signs prices were too high, contrasts with prolonged China home-price declines, and reviews steady oil, strong year-to-date midstream performance, and upcoming client reporting and geopolitical headlines.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:46 Market Open Recap

01:34 Rates and Inflation Signals

03:31 Will the Fed Hike

05:40 Rotation Not Rout

07:29 Economic Data Check

09:27 Florida Housing Warning

12:28 China Housing Contrast

13:02 Energy and Midstream Update

14:40 Week Ahead and Wrap

Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com (dividendcafe.com)

TheBahnsenGroup.com (thebahnsengroup.com)