HERD BEST OF THE WEEK: Caleb Williams Top 3 QB | NFL QBs as Halloween Villains | Blazing 5: Ravens at Bills, Bears at Seahawks

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0:26 Here we go. It is a Monday. Matt Hasselbeck in less than five minutes. We're in L.A. It's the Herd. Wherever you may be, however you may be listening, thanks for making us part of your day. The studio looks beautiful here. A little spooky. It's Halloween week. It's a big time.

0:47 L.A.

0:47 Is a very good Halloween city. Very good. Yeah, I rate cities based on how they accept candy.

0:54 I thought it was airports one, Halloween costumes two.

0:57 What are you dressing up as this weekend?

1:02 A respected, seasoned local news anchor.

1:05 I thought you would go as Caleb Williams.

1:07 Let me tell you something. That guy is playing a different level. That was the most fun I've had at a game in several years, going to that Bears-Patriots game. All right, Colin Wright, Colin Wrong on a Monday. And here we go.

1:18 Where Colin was right.

1:19 Caleb Williams. Oh, Colin, he paints his fingernails in college. Who gives a rip? Kids are different. Let him live. He's a creative guy. He emotes. Sometimes he gets emotional. His completion percentage now is 71%, so I not only get the horsepower, the guy is surgical. Eight completions of 20-plus yards against New England, and I was there. That New England defense is not giving up eight chunk plays the rest of the year. He is one of those guys, and you see him once, twice a decade, who even amongst other great pro athletes feels like a different level.

1:55 Always a lot of critics because he's different, but I like this different.

2:00 Where Colin was wrong.

2:02 Is J.J. McCarthy the next Sam Darnold? Now, he had a great run game. Okay, 188 yards. And all quarterbacks are better with a run game. But let's be fair here. He made the connections with Malik neighbors were noteworthy. He played with confidence. That's a big time throw right there. He played with poise. I mean, Houston's a real good team.

2:24 And yes, Scataboo was decisive in his running. But in Minnesota, there was all sorts of weird stuff. The injuries people said, you know, like like he couldn't stay healthy. There was some stuff. He's a little arrogant and off putting whatever young people grow. But that J.J. McCarthy, I thought I would never see in the NFL.

2:45 Where Colin was right.

2:47 The NIL has created a surplus of drama. I don't want to hear how it's bad for college football. Anybody can beat anybody. I mean, BYU beats Notre Dame and then goes and loses to unranked Central Florida. UCLA is a basketball school. They're 7-0. Three straight weeks, we have a number one or two ranked team losing to an unranked team. This is unbelievable. It's much like baseball. Baseball is a great sport, but it needed some fundamental changes.

3:14 That is college football, where you had three teams that had such a wide gap over everybody else. The last two weeks, I have no idea who's winning games. Week to week, I mean, the outcomes are far more diverse. There's a very tiny gap between the 36th best team and the fourth best team. Long overdue. The sport's never been better. I don't want to hear the NIL is.

3:39 Gloom and doom. Where Colin was wrong.

3:43 Yeah, I think I got over my skis on the Houston Texans who are now 0-4 at home and 2-5. After they beat the Jags, I was like, that team can win the Super Bowl. How about no?

3:55 C.J.

3:55 Stroud is not the issue. The defense has regressed. I don't have an answer for it. They can never build a run game. Woody Marks got banged up, came back. But I just it feels like it's the same thing. The old line can't stay healthy. The run game is never dynamic enough.

4:14 C.J.

4:15 Stroud is, to me, not the issue. When they beat the Jags, I was like, wow, this And yesterday I was like, whoa, whatever.

4:24 Where Colin was right.

4:25 Lakers are better without LeBron, and that's not a criticism of LeBron. He takes so much oxygen out of the room. The Lakers needed a clear pecking order, and they have it. Luka is the understated champion. Well, I mean, he's not LeBron. He is a number one. Austin's a number two. Because they don't have LeBron's salary, they can afford Walker Kessler and multiple wing defenders who can catch and shoot. LeBron's salary would have gotten in the way of the rebuild.

4:57 They have a legitimate rim runner, rim protector, wing defenders. And a clear number one, it's not a criticism on LeBron, but LeBron, between the money and the oxygen, he clouded the Lakers. He leaves. As a Laker fan, you may not want a title, but it feels like this is a real team with real players and positions that can compete with the best teams.

5:24 Where Colin was wrong.

5:26 Well, I was wrong on Sark at USC and Lane Kiffin at USC. I'm wrong on Lincoln Riley at USC. You can preach toughness, but it's the same problems. O-line play, can't run the ball, get pushed around on the road, lack an innate toughness in these big games. And college football's best coach is your Freemans and Cignettis and your Ryan days and your Kirby smarts, the one thing they have in common, their teams are physical and they push around and in crisis, they may be flawed, but they're tough.

5:57 And everything about USC screams convertible sports car in the winter. It just doesn't work. It's pretty at times snazzy at home. It just doesn't work. And I was wrong. Eastern Michigan scored more against the Badgers than USC did. Come on.

6:14 Where Colin was right.

6:16 Michael Penix, listen, nine touchdowns a pick and a 109 passer rating this season. I loved him out of college. I know he's a pocket quarterback, but he can roll a little bit. Jared Goff's a pocket quarterback, and right now he's the number one passer rating. I want my quarterback to stay in the pocket. I do want him to be athletic enough to be able to move the pocket.

6:33 I think Penix is. I think he throws a beautiful football. And do I worry about the health? Absolutely. Absolutely, I worry about the health. But for two years, I worried about Brock Purdy's health. Michael Penix is a franchise quarterback. Tall, deep ball. I mean, if you give him, like Goff, two beats, he is tough to stop.

6:58 Where Colin was right.

7:00 Finally, Deion Sanders. I don't think he can coach a lick. I do think he's interesting, but he could never build a legitimate staff. 20 games at Colorado. 5-15, four losses by 30-plus. That's Carl Durrell without the branding. You know, again, I think he's he's an interesting guy. Dion's about Dion. He can sell Dion. But the reality is the great coaches didn't want to join the staff because they didn't think he was a great coach. And Colorado now is just a poorly coached football team with a coach that has done a great job to market himself and brand himself.

7:35 And I did think for the first couple of years they were interesting. But this is no different than Carl Durrell, who is a good guy and was, you know, can be an assistant coach. But, you know, they're they're they're just over their skis week after week. Colin Wright, Colin wrong. And with that, 18 years in the NFL, a lot of it was Seattle. Matt Hasselbeck is now joining us live.

7:57 I'll tell you what the I always say this about Darnold. He's the only quarterback that. He's the only quarterback in the league where you have a great quarterback wide receiver combo. And the receiver gets a hundred percent of the credit. It's all JSN, right? I mean, with Jamar Chase, we acknowledge Burrow, right? With anybody, with Jalen Brown, we acknowledge Jalen Hurts or with AJ Brown. It's all JSN. And last night on third and nine, Darnold was five of six.

8:29 That's impossible. That hasn't happened since 2008. Is it just the jet ears that we are, which are the, I mean, what is it about Donald that just there's people that can't embrace it?

8:41 Well, I blame drew lock a little.

8:43 Bit because drew lock started a game this, this year. And I think his first pass was like an 80 yard touchdown to JSN, you know, JSN also, you know, he's taking plays that should not be touchdown plays and turned them into touchdowns. fourth and one, a little completion play touchdown, a little screen touchdown.

8:58 But I, I don't know.

9:00 I think Sam's getting his credit. I don't think he's looking for the credit. He's got a super bowl ring and a trophy and all that stuff. And, and he knows he can play better. I thought he was outstanding last night on third down. You know, first of all, the defense made my homes look mortal. He usually looks immortal.

9:13 Sam was incredible on third down, protected the ball. He had a critical error in the red zone that almost cost him. But, you know, he just needs to eliminate those things. He was great with his legs last night. I don't think he's looking for the credit. I think he realizes he learned it last year. There's enough credit to go around with a great team like this. And help is on the way at the running back position as well. So great win for Seattle last night. They really needed it.

9:39 Well, Kansas City had beaten up on the Chargers and the Colts and the Raiders and Denver came in. You know, Davis Webb was now the play caller with a new language. So then you watch him play Seattle and Seattle is so young and so athletic and so fast. And even Warren Witherspoon in the secondary, they can put nickel and dime packages there. Kansas City, you can't take advantage of it.

9:58 I did think last night. it felt like I was watching, Matt, a wave, a blue wall, and it did make Kansas City. And they're not an old team. They've got some old players. But do I just take it's a hard night in Seattle. But that game felt like, wow, there's a gap in personnel. But sometimes you go on the road and that's what it looks like. Do I should I take too much out of Kansas City getting bulldozed?

10:22 I think this is what people don't realize.

10:25 There's something really unique and special about playing against an old teammate. And, you know, Seattle, that organization, I've been there. I've been there recently.

10:33 I lived it there. You know, they love each other top to bottom.

10:36 John Schneider, the GM players, equipment managers, athletic trainers, like it's a family there. and John Schneider and company had been taking a lot of heat because canine is running wild on the NFL. And now he's paired with Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes. And this wasn't just another game for them. It wasn't just another primetime game. It was an opportunity in love to play against your old teammate, your super bowl MVP, your guy from last year kind of like playing against your brother or your best friend and doing it for your other brother, your best friend and, and kind of stepping up and sending a message. And it wasn't a perfect game by any stretch, but defensively, that was one of the more dominant performances that I've

11:18 ever seen, especially stopping a run game and a runner that's been lights out this year.

11:24 Yeah.

11:24 So I, I, We've joked that we think it's the substation in San Francisco with the injuries. But what it really is, is Shanahan is a high functioning, maybe the best play designer, play caller in the league. He likes older, mature, experienced players. He doesn't want to teach you how to play football. So, I mean, even when they are banged up, he's like, I want I want Mike Evans.

11:46 Right.

11:46 Right.

11:47 And so like in last year, McCaffrey had 400 plus touches. There is a recent history. If you do the following year, you get dinged up. So I look at San Francisco and I almost feel here's I guess my take is that Shanahan may have a little too much sand personnel that he wants older players. But I've I've got another October where the Niners are falling apart. Is it a flaw in the Shanahan brilliance that these older players, they just keep he doesn't get rewarded in November and on?

12:21 Yeah, I'm scratching my head. You know, the, the injury thing in San Fran is real. All I can tell you is the lifestyle out there is kind of nice and easy and palm trees and perfect weather and perfect grass. And that's just not the lifestyle in the NFL. You know, I had a daughter who played a sport at Stanford in Palo Alto.

12:39 It's beautiful every day. It's perfect conditions.

12:42 And then, you know, you go on the road and places like a dome in Atlanta, I've played there. And that turf is like playing in the parking lot. Like it's just, it's just different. So I'm I got no answers for you other than I feel like it's a team of Ferraris and not a team of pickup trucks.

12:56 You know, it just like they get dinged up.

13:00 I don't know.

13:00 I know that they're scratching their head about it. I'm not sure about the electricity transfer station. I enjoyed that game yesterday, though. I mean, I thought it was a great game. San Fran was right there to win it. Penix was really steady and impressive in a lot of ways. Brock Purdy, you know, the six points, six point deficit, he's taken them down to win the game. And the rookie line inside linebacker from Oklahoma. I think his name is Daniels. He makes one of the most spectacular plays that I've seen all season by a defensive player. So just, I think you just got to tip your cap to Atlanta and just say this 49ers teams for real. And they'll be back in it. They fumbled too much and party through an interception when he was trying to throw

13:40 the ball away.

13:41 So the Lions and the Packers, it's interesting. Green Bay not only leads the NFL in drops, they lead it by a mile. Yesterday, their DBs are dropping it. Their receivers are dropping it. And I wonder, in your years in the NFL, was there ever a year that Seattle or Green Bay, like, it's just a drop year? Are they not doing the homework on drafting? I mean, they don't lead the NFL in drops. They lead it by a significant margin. And yesterday, I mean, listen, they couldn't hit chip shot field goals. It was a lot of stuff.

14:14 Yeah, listen, I forget the year, but one year, our team, the Seattle Seahawks, we led the league in drops by a wide margin, like a ton.

14:22 It was crazy.

14:23 And what's going on? And all I can say is it does get contagious. It does get in your head, much like a kicker missing a kick. or a guy off the tee box in golf, like he just kind of gets in your head. And I always like coming back to my guys right after that. But I also appreciated when I saw them working on the fundamentals before practice, after practice, on the jugs machine, guys on offense, guys on defense. Put the extra work in. That gives me confidence.

14:50 You know, that wasn't the case with all the guys that had the drops. Some guys were putting work in. Some guys were like, my bad, my B. Like, what are we doing about it, guys? Like, what are we doing about it? So that, you know, I thought that, you know, yesterday's game was a game of inches and it was people making plays at the moment of truth.

15:09 Whether it's a running.

15:10 Back dropping a touchdown, perfect touchdown pass, or a guy deciding to like bust through somebody to block a game winning field goal, like whatever it was, it was playmakers making plays at the moment of truth. And that's really what happens with drops. You know, defenders are taught to have strong hands and wide receivers and guys catching the ball are taught to concentrate, look it in, you know, if it's above your chest, it's thumbs together. If it's below your chest, pinkies together, all the fundamentals that you talk about and coach, you got to do it when it's time to do it.

15:43 You, as a rule, defend young quarterbacks even when they struggle. And J.J. McCarthy, I sold my stock, and I generally don't. I like the Drake Mays, the C.J. 's, the Darnolds. I don't. But I thought he was nervous. I thought he didn't have an off-speed pitch. Everything's a fastball. I thought he lost his confidence. And then I watch him with Scataboon a run game yesterday, and I'm like, okay, I've got to slow down because do we have the next Darnold? Do you think it's Harbaugh? Do you think it's the run game? I mean, I'm sorry, but he never looked that confident for a football game in Minnesota.

16:17 You played the position. He had moments. He didn't look like that. What do I make of that? Because that was impressive.

16:25 Sometimes it's a long term investment.

16:27 You know, like you invest in something. It's not a flip it in two years. It's like flip it in 20 years, flip it in 10 years. I think that's the way we get wrong in the NFL with quarterbacks. I will also say the quarterbacks deserve some blame. A lot of people are like, oh, organizations fail quarterbacks. Quarterbacks don't fail organization.

16:43 No, no, no, no, no.

16:45 There's plenty of blame to go around these quarterbacks. I'll use JJ as an example. It was a wake up call. Like he went in there thinking like, Oh, that's going to be just like, I'm the man it's handed to me. No, like people, there's a standard that people expect for you on the field, off the field at practice in the film room.

17:02 All of it.

17:03 And he's getting a second chance to kind of sink or swim. I do think Harbaugh matters. I do think the fact that his brother was his college coach at, at Michigan, like the scouting report. Hey, here's what you need to say to this guy. Here's what, it's not what he can't do. It's what he can do. He has tangibles. He's got the ability to run. He's got a strong arm. You got to maybe keep it simple for him. Mike Holmgren used to always say, Hey, with young quarterbacks, they need to walk before they can run.

17:28 We're not taking the training wheels off right away. And he'd say that about guys like Brett Favre and And, and, and Steve young, I mean, you'd say great players. So, you know, he's been, he's been outstanding, like cam Scataboo neighbors, this offense, I give Harbaugh the credit. It's an attitude thing.

17:47 And also when you coach a quarterback, keeping it super simple, something like they can hang their hat on, Hey, I want this, this, or that done.

17:55 Not like, Oh, you could do this.

17:57 No.

17:57 What, what do I actually want right here right now? And then that allows you to go out and play free. And that's what I see. I see a quarterback who's got a second chance playing free.

18:07 Something I've never figured out in football. And so let's start with this. It's a, it's a Joe Burrell question, but I want to start with this. When you get to the locker room, how much time do the coaches have with the players to tweak? How much seven minutes, six minutes.

18:23 Depends on how quickly they get their, their act together. Like if they're organized going in for their little coaches huddle, what happens is coaches come in and they huddle up, players go up and they, you know, huddle up, use the bathroom, literally have orange slices and something to drink like you did when you were growing up. And then the coaches come in, they come in quickly sometimes like when they have answers or they come in late when they're, they don't have answers. What usually happens in that waiting time is is players will either say nothing or speak up.

18:51 It sounds like Jamar chase spoke up and sometimes that can be helpful. Sometimes that can be detrimental. But, but to think that halftime adjustments don't happen, that's not actually, that's not a fact. They just maybe don't get shared with the group or maybe they're not advertised, but, but it's an important time to me. I feel like halftime is an important time to regroup and have a plan coming out to second half.

19:17 I've never seen a game where a team Cincinnati could not 40, 50 yards. And then in the second half, it was a seven on seven drill in Los Angeles with high schoolers. It was literally catch pass and catch. Cincinnati was flawless. And I'm thinking the whole time, what happened Cincinnati? I mean, what happens in seven minutes that Cincinnati can't get a first down to unstoppable?

19:40 This is my take.

19:41 I thought Cincinnati looked lethargic. I thought they were bad on third down and sometimes a great player and a great personality and a great leader.

19:49 Oftentimes, the quarterback, but not always a.

19:52 Great player can drag his team into the fight. And I feel like that's what Jamar chase did. I felt like Jamar chase at halftime, he dragged his team into the fight.

20:01 He's like, Hey, I don't know about y'all. I'm getting into a fight. Who's with me? Like, who's got my back.

20:06 I'm in count on me, put it on me, find me. It'll start with me. And Joe Burrow, I know the respect he has for Jamar. He's like, Hey, and coaches like, okay, Hey. Let's where, where's our call sheet and where our plays for him. Let's get him going. Let's get us going. And that can absolutely happen. Sometimes it happens with a guy on special teams or defense, but when it's one of your great players, it's, it's a little bit easier because now, now, now.

20:30 All of a sudden he's in the fight. And if you got love for your.

20:32 Brother that way, like, Hey, I got my brother's back. I'm stepping it up. And it was like a completely different team. And the game wasn't even close at the end. That's the funny part. It was like a pretty solid win. But at halftime, it absolutely like looked like the Bengals were going to lose that game.

20:48 So by the way, people don't understand that you always played hurt as a player. We have a video that when you sat down today, you broke your chair and yes, literally broke your chair. And yet you have performed. You're like the Bengals yet. You have performed despite not getting off to a great start. And we really appreciate that.

21:08 Speaker 2, you're amazing.

21:09 You know, who needs enemies with friends like you guys? Can I just give one little shout out though? This is, I love this.

21:15 Okay.

21:15 The tight ends have done such an amazing job of marketing themselves. Tight end day, national tight end day, whatever these, if you think that these offensive coordinators aren't actually thinking about that. Like when they look, oh, we got a nice tight end day coming up, blah, blah, blah. Like there were so many tight end plays like opportunities for tight ends, even Barner last night on the tush push, like all of it. Like, I promise you, if you think that these play callers are just blind to that, they're not. So I don't know if there's statistics that back this up or you can go back year to year.

21:50 I promise you it's a thing.

21:51 So to the other positions out there, I don't know if it's like big man touchdown.

21:55 Day or whatever.

21:56 Like you need to hire a marketing group for your position, the way the tight ends have, because it's been outstanding.

22:03 I just had to say it.

22:04 Sorry. Well, I was at the Chicago, New England game live on Thursday. And there's no question that Drake may does not have a number one receiver that AJ Brown did not look good. The backs are kind of pedestrian. He is looking for Hunter Henry. And there's no question that Luther Burden and Colston Loveland, you know, the tight end of Michigan, are clearly Caleb Williams' number one guy.

22:28 It's interesting watching that game. Caleb really, I feel like I feel bad for Drake May. I don't think they've drafted skill positions very well. I feel like Chicago really has. Ryan Poles has nailed the skill positions. When I was watching that game between Drake May and Caleb, and I'm sure you were, one of the things I said is, watching Caleb in person is different than TV. Drake may is great both ways, you know, TV there. He's really good. Uh, Caleb is just different. His arm strength is the way he moves. Um, I mean, now you get surgical and you get the explosive stuff. Where are we today on when I said, sometimes I think he's Josh Allen without the picks and that's way out there. I know you're smiling.

23:14 You think it's the craziest thing you've ever heard. Am I going overboard?

23:19 You said something that maybe makes sense. It like clicked in my brain that you said he looks completely different, way better when you watch him in person than he does on TV. Because the way you talk about Caleb is literally you think I'm joking. My buddies from Chicago, Sully, Fitzy and Murph. I got Jack Murphy blowing.

23:37 On my phone. What do you think about Caleb now?

23:39 He was at the game.

23:41 So, you know, and I was watching on TV.

23:43 So maybe it's the in-person thing, you know, like you better believe it. Colin was right. You know, Caleb's the best. He's the MVP of the league, you know? So maybe it's the in-person thing. I got to get off my TV. Maybe, maybe that's what it is called.

23:55 Okay. Well, be safe. Sitting down is a problem. Be safe, Matt Hasselbeck.

24:00 I need to mix in some salads, no dressing, no croutons in a water.

24:03 Sheesh.

24:05 The great Matt Hasselbeck, 18 years in the NFL. No, the, um, you know, it's, it's like, I can remember when LeBron was great. I, my wife and I, and we went down to Miami. I'm like, I got to see him in person. You know, I, like, I got to say, I can remember when Conor McGregor in the UFC, uh, I was like, I got to go watch some of these fights. Like you do get these rare players. Oh, Tony, where you're like, I want to see it in person.

24:27 And you know, with Caleb, uh, I have not seen Josh Allen in person, but with Caleb, you go watch him in person. I went to a practice this year and I went to the game and it just feels a little different. His escapability, how pedestrian he makes other great NFL players. New England's defense is really good. Like no other team is going to have eight chunk plays against New England this year. Will not happen. And he did it, and it was kind of like, ho-hum. So there you go. In LA, it's the Herd.

24:56 Want more Herd?

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25:06 Welcome to Football Doesn't Lie.

25:08 Hi, I'm Bill Parcells.

25:11 And I'm Catherine Zazzora.

25:12 I have a lot of experience in the game of football, Catherine.

25:16 And I'm learning the game with Bill's help. Every week, we're going to talk about the NFL slate through the lens of Bill's expertise as he coaches me from novice fan to football expert over the course of the season.

25:27 You know, I'm looking forward to this show, Catherine, and hopefully we can give our audience a little in-depth look into the inner sanctum of pro football that they can't get anywhere else.

25:37 Tune in every Thursday for unfiltered stories from Coach Parcells, analysis on the state of the modern game, and education on how football really works.

25:46 Continuity is very important. But what happens when you.

25:50 Get good coaches on your staff and people begin to recognize them, then they want to hire them. And then you can't stop a guy from trying to improve himself, but you have to replace them.

26:02 Because once you understand what's going on inside the mind of the coaches, you'll understand more about the whole game.

26:08 So all aspects can be discussed. The only thing I haven't done, because I didn't have enough money, I don't own the team. I never owned a team.

26:17 Listen to Football Doesn't Lie on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

26:27 Here we go. It's hour two. Cowboys win, score 38 points, finally discover a run game. Boy, Shottie likes to throw it, doesn't he? He loves to throw it. Apparently he had a short press conference last night. He got in his feels like, I don't want to deal with the press. It's like, I like the fact that he just ran the ball. Listen to this stat. So Dak last night threw...

26:50 27 pass attempts. That's appropriate. This year, this weekend, the winning quarterbacks in the NFL this weekend threw 28 times. Quarterbacks with over 40-plus attempts this year are 7-34-1, 0-4 this week. Hey, Shoddy, run the ball. Run the ball. Even Dak Prescott, you ask him to throw 45, 50 times, that's what the Bengals have been doing for years with Joe Burrow. He can't make the playoffs. And if you're trying to hide a mediocre defense, and that's what Dallas has, that's what the Bears have. What do you do? Ben Johnson, run the ball. Shorten the game. It's not that complicated.

27:33 Run the ball if you have Dallas' defense.

27:37 All right.

27:38 It is time. It is Tuesday. Here's our top ten.

27:45 Heard hierarchy.

27:46 Time is now.

27:47 Let's go.

27:47 The top ten NFL teams according to college. Number ten.

27:52 Listen, it's an offensive league in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow right now, 72% completion percentage, second and passer rating, offensive coach, two great receivers, top five scoring offense. Listen, they lost to the Steelers and the Jags. I don't think they're a Super Bowl team, but I do think they went and bought a defensive front.

28:11 It's better. They dogged Baltimore this weekend. Clearly the better team. I'll put Joe Burrow and the guys at 10.

28:18 Number nine.

28:19 Listen, the Rams are out gaining their opponents by over 97 yards. It's number one in the league. This weekend, they finally look like the Rams. I'd like to see Miles Garrett, Puka, Devontae Adams banged up as they are prone to be. But I did think the tight end usage, Stafford had an extra beat to throw. They look like a team that could make a playoff run. Rams still have egregiously bad special teams. So I put them at nine.

28:44 Number eight.

28:46 Listen, the Broncos have only lost to the Chiefs and the Niners. They are 4-0 in one-score games, but they are terrible on third down offensively. And I don't care if I like your coach, if I love your roster, bad third down teams end up being weak or below average playoff teams. I put Denver at eight.

29:11 Number seven.

29:13 The Lions, weird win over Green Bay, number one passing offense. It's their first win this year, however, scoring less than 30 points. And if Green Bay could catch, they would have gotten close to it. Their offensive line is excellent. Jared Goff needs that. We all love Jamison Williams, Amaran St. Brown, Jameer Gibbs, Laporta. This is just, you know, 90% of their talent on offense. I do think Brian Branch coming back matters. He had a pick. I put Detroit at seven.

29:42 Number six.

29:44 Well, for the fourth straight week, I have the Buffalo Bills. at uh number uh no that what did i didn't do i did five yet oh yeah my bad bills at six number one scoring offense but there are 29 points five times they've given up 29 points so again i feel like it's a little bit like the lions with a mobile quarterback they gotta score a lot to win i don't think you can win a super bowl with that secondary so trading deadline seahawks just made a move i'm the bills i make a move at the deadline which is in a couple of weeks Number five. Yeah, I forgot how to count. Kansas City's at number five. Listen, they had a lousy game in Seattle, and I think Seattle's the best team in the league. You just throw

30:27 it away. I do worry about the wide receivers, and I'm sorry, and it's not just Kenneth Walker. I just don't like this receiving core. I don't trust it. But this was the first team in the Super Bowl era to have no rushes of 10 yards, no completions of 20, no red zone drives, no touchdown and multiple missed field goals.

30:45 That was an awful performance. They rarely have them. Burn the tape. I still think they're a team that can get to a conference championship. And if they're healthy, maybe more.

30:55 Number four.

30:56 I think I saw him play live. I think it's the most underrated team in the league. Top 10 in offense and defense. And that's with A.J. Brown. just not being anything.

31:08 A.J.

31:08 Brown's going to get better. Now, he may, I'm not saying he's going to be A.J. Brown, but he will become something more than he is now. I think Travion Henderson has been a disappointment as a second round pick out of Ohio State. I just like their coaching. I think Drake May is really special. You'll watch him live.

31:26 He's not working with a ton. I think they're underrated. I think they can win in cold weather. I have him at four.

31:32 Number three.

31:33 The Bears. Listen, they're 3-0 average and 40 a game when Caleb plays, start to finish. They're a big play offense. They can also run. So they're built to play in cold weather. The last two games, Caleb's 75% completion percentage. I think they need a rush end. I think they should go after Khalil Mack of the Chargers. I really do.

31:52 If the Chargers lose, I'd go get draft picks. This team feels like they're just missing one edge piece today. I get the coach. I get the run game. I got, I get Josh Allen at quarterback without the interceptions bears at three. Number two, they're falling apart. Don't take much from the loss. Their, their schedule lightens up Brock Purdy.

32:16 I mean, he's thrown to backups to backups. Christian McCaffrey off the buy will be available. I don't worry too much about it, but I do think when I do the herd hierarchy, you have to consider everything. And they're old. And the number one team just got better, and they're not old.

32:32 Number one.

32:34 Seattle's got a better defense. Seattle is younger. Younger players get hurt less. And when they get hurt, they recover more quickly. Quentin Nelson with Gray Zabel gives you two world-class guards. What Seattle is telling you with that move is, listen. We don't know if Jadarian Price and Charbonnet are going to combine be Kenneth Walker. So we're going to upgrade the interior line to guarantee a viable run game because we got a recipe and it got us a ring and the Niners are falling apart and the Rams and the Packers are not as good as everybody thought in the NFC. So I love the move. And I said this about the Brewers, and I'll say it about the Seahawks.

33:15 When you turn the sound down, some teams just look different. And Kansas City hasn't played that bad in like ever. There's only one team in the league that can make Kansas City look like that, and that is Seattle. And with that, Nick Wright co-hosts First Things First. I finally figured out how to count, and I can always count on Nick. All right, just look at the herd hierarchy, your macro, your overview of it.

33:39 All right, so let me just start with the Chiefs. I would like to compliment you and thank you for not being one of the Pollyannas that are like, oh, my God, the sky is falling in Kansas City. I understand they looked awful, and they got blown out. You know they hadn't lost a regular season game by three scores in five years?

34:04 Yeah.

34:06 Mahomes has now lost five games in his whole career by three-plus scores, two Super Bowls, sadly, two games in 2021 and Sunday night. And Kansas City looked bad, and Patrick didn't play well and all of it. But I agree with you wholeheartedly that that was more about a rested team almost desperate, certainly needed the win. Seahawks team saying we are not losing again at home on Sunday night football. Then it was about everything that's wrong with Kansas city. They probably need to add a receiver. Maybe they follow Seattle's lead. They traded for a guy, a great player in Quentin Nelson today. Maybe the chiefs follow that in the next couple of weeks, but I agree with you that Sunday was more about the winner than

34:53 it was about the loser. My only other critique is I think you have a team at four in new England that got beat 35 to six by a team in Jacksonville. That's not in your top 10. That seems a little unfair to the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence and Liam go it.

35:14 Well, I told my guys, I always preface it. When I give it, my staff looks at me. I said, Jacksonville's 11. I like Jacksonville. They get a little loose with penalties. I think Jacksonville's very good. I want to say this about the Seahawks, though, adding Quentin Nelson. So what they're basically telling you is, listen, we lost Kenneth Walker.

35:33 We know Sam Darnold play action can win a Super Bowl. We watched it. But Sam, without play action, the picks come back. And so what I think they're telling you is Charbonnet is coming back, but he gets banged up. Price is good. He's not special. So we're going to make our own line even better than last year. And that will, we, I think what they're telling you is we've watched the Rams. The Niners are getting beat up.

35:57 And the Packers aren't as good as we thought. The Eagles are falling apart. I think part of Seattle's move, Nick, is we're watching all these top NFC teams, and they're not as good as we thought they would be. Let's go for it. That's what it feels like to me.

36:12 Listen, I support it wholeheartedly. I think they are looking at the NFC and saying, we can be the best team again. We can do what we in Seattle did more than a decade ago, which was had a quarterback that people had question marks about. Now, Russ ended up being a great quarterback, but people thought that was defense running game, and we can be a good enough overall team to get to back-to-back Super Bowls. I think this is a, relatively speaking, low-risk trade that an A-list contender absolutely Absolutely should go for. And when they look at it as we played the Niners once already, that was a good close game that came down to the finish.

36:58 We're going to get them again.

37:00 So we'll see how it looks when we play them a second time. I, I like their chances to at least split with them. I don't think they are eliminated from the division. And then they look at the, to me, the NFC is the Niners, the Seahawks and the NFC North with the Rams hanging on by a thread.

37:18 Right.

37:19 And I think Seattle says, if we are going to get through, if the Rams end up turning it around, it will in part be cut, be because miles Garrett comes back and that D line is ferocious.

37:32 The Vikings. obviously have a ferocious defense. I think the.

37:35 Seahawks are saying we have to make sure we can protect Darnold.

37:39 I love the trade for them.

37:41 I don't know if I would yet have them number one in the league, but I do think your point, I think they are the only team in the.

37:49 League that's deep.

37:50 That defense could have done that to Kansas city on Sunday night. That's a special defense and they're going for it as they should as the defending champs.

37:59 Yeah. It's almost like the rays swept the Yankees. They're very good. Milwaukee's humiliating them. They swept the dot like their teams. And I compared them earlier Brewer, Seattle, which is they got hot later in the season. And you're like, now they're humiliating people. And like, sometimes you have to chalk it up to on the road, desperate team. They're good.

38:20 And it's like, throw the tape away.

38:21 Okay.

38:23 JJ McCarthy was the one quarterback out of his draft. I liked panics. I liked everybody. I like Bo Nix more than people. I like Jaden, but with JJ McCarthy, I said it was more Harbaugh. than it was him. It was more Blake Corm. It was more defense. Well, now we get to another hard ball and I'm watching Sunday and I'm like, okay, those are, those are big boy throws. This is not turning. And I'm like, scataboo is say what you want is odd. And, and unstable as that will be over the course of 10 years for now. And Sunday, that's hard to tackle. Am I just wrong on JJ McCarthy? Cause that was not a mirage.

39:01 Those were big time throws.

39:04 Well, if you're wrong on J.J.

39:06 McCarthy, luckily for you, so was a third of the league.

39:10 And the team that knew him best.

39:12 As excited as the Giants should be about what they saw from J.J., that's how nervous every person of power within the Vikings should be right now.

39:23 If J.J.

39:24 McCarthy ends up being a legitimate, the guy they draft, like think about this decision flow. We have Kirk Cousins. We're consistently in the mix. We need to get better. We're going to draft a quarterback, move on from Cousins.

39:41 Fine.

39:41 Quarterback gets hurt.

39:43 Our backup, Sam Darnold, wins 14 games.

39:46 Looks amazing.

39:47 We believe in JJ so much, we're going to move on from Sam Darnold. The next year, he plays half the season.

39:55 You sour on him so much.

39:57 You're like, Kyler Murray, come in and compete for the job. But it's your job immediately. And JJ can be had by anyone in the league. If that player ends up being really good... And meanwhile, the Vikings, the biggest question mark is, is Kyler holding them back?

40:15 It's a catastrophe.

40:17 But as bad as it is for the Vikings, if I am the ownership of the Browns or the Jets or the Cardinals, I'm calling my GM in and I'm like, We couldn't have traded a fourth round pick for this player. If he ends up being good, it's a disaster for so many teams, most notably the Vikings. And for the Giants, it would be an unbelievable problem to have if all of a sudden they have two high upside young quarterbacks.

40:48 I'm not ready yet to say that last week was who he is. I'm not, he's making a hell of, he's making a hell of a first, a second, first impression in the league so far.

41:00 That was a great game.

41:01 And I think also bonus take Colin, I think it killed the Texans.

41:05 Yeah.

41:05 I think the Texans are a scratch off now. I don't think there's coming back from this start.

41:10 So I said this and, you know, I was a little, you know, a little too braggy. But I said, oh, I said before the season, I said, Caleb will be a top three quarterback in the league. It'll be Alan Mahomes, some order and Caleb by the end of the year. It just will be. And I've watched I went and watched him live last week. And my takeaway was he's Josh Allen without the occasional egregious mistake with Josh in a lot of games.

41:38 Pretty good.

41:39 I'm not joking. And I watch him. And the fact that now in a clean pocket, he's Brady. The numbers are ridiculous. I don't think it's I think it's one of these things where it's we don't want to say it. I think we are looking at kind of a. a Jordan ask like, like a guy that you get a lot of upside and not a lot of downside. And by the way, Michael Jackson got Quincy Jones and MJ only one big with Phil Jackson. Part of this component is, you know, LeBron never got the coach bolster was darn close and they got to four. But I think the Ben Caleb thing are, I honestly believe this. It's going to be 10 years and trophies.

42:23 I believe that.

42:23 So listen, I think that it's, you know, I got a lot of flack five years ago.

42:29 Was it five years ago? God, I'm old.

42:31 When he was a sophomore in college and I ranked him as the sixth best quarterback alive, I think, on Mahomes Mountain.

42:38 Like, and.

42:40 I, so I thought from the moment he walked on the field in the red river shootout as a freshman at Oklahoma and turned that game around.

42:50 And then what.

42:51 He did at USC, I just thought the combination of doesn't throw picks, crazy athleticism, one of the strongest arms in the world.

43:04 It's insane.

43:04 It's insane. It was just totally unique.

43:07 It's one of the reasons why I dislike so much how much rabbit ears he seems to have about what is said about him, only because I think that's one of the only things that could at least temporarily derail him is getting too caught up in some of the noise surrounding him.

43:25 He is a unique talent.

43:27 I called him when he was coming out of school, Mahomes 2.0. Not better than Patrick, but the evolution of crazy arm angles, crazy arm talent. He is faster than Patrick. And so I think that, I think I said to you that going into the year, If the whole league were free agents, my draft picks would go like, and you could have anybody.

43:52 It would go moving forward. Patrick, Josh, Caleb. I think we were in lockstep on that.

43:58 And I think that he has only buttressed that point.

44:03 So let me, can I ask you a question?

44:04 And again, I'm not, I won't hold you to this, but are you looking at Monday night football as a potential NFC championship game preview?

44:15 No it is okay san francisco i san francisco is great every september and then whether it's the substation or they have old players they'll fall apart so i just i'm watching that is the nfc championship which.

44:26 By the way that's what i thought you were thinking.

44:28 It's probably the super bowl like last year it feels like i don't trust the chiefs receiving core i i just don't in a big game i and i don't by the way i don't know what's going on at left tackle and i don't want to no supposition okay i gotta throw this i want to give you a look at lebron time yeah So sometimes divorces, both teams win.

44:47 I said, before LeBron went to Philly, I said, there's only one choice. You have to protect your defensive liabilities. You have to choose Philly. It's the only choice veteran coach, Jalen Brown, BJ edge comb. You got a rim protector. Philly is the only choice. Don't put your career in Donovan Mitchell and hardened quirky. Don't play defense. So it's been good for him. It clearly works. He's the stabilizing EQ IQ force of a great roster. But I said yesterday, and this is not a criticism, part of being LeBron is his presence is so ubiquitous. It just steals so much oxygen. The Lakers are better without him. They can afford a rim protector and a couple of decent wings, and there is now a clear pecking order. Like it

45:30 or not, Luka won, Austin too. That could never be with LeBron. LeBron's presence, not that it's burdensome, but the Lakers were actually.

45:40 It's a lot.

45:41 They were right moving off him. They looked like a team that could win a playoff series.

45:47 So.

45:48 I mean, they were a team that won a playoff series last year without Luka and without Austin, thanks to the 41-year-old.

45:53 I mean, thanks to the 41-year-old who.

45:56 Just carried them, you know, as a huge underdog. They did win a playoff series. So better off?

46:02 I don't know. They made round two last year.

46:05 We'll see how, you know, we'll see if they go to the conference finals this year.

46:09 I love Luka.

46:11 And given the all of a sudden, you know, pretty sad situation, I'd say that totally sincerely, by the way, like sad injuries that Oklahoma City suffered.

46:21 Brutal.

46:22 And given it's just awful and you feel sick for Jalen Williams, who's just had some terrible injury luck. So they all of a sudden are shakier, given the fact that somebody hypnotized Victor Wimbanyama yesterday. into thinking he should model his game after Kevin Durant, who's half a foot shorter than him at 100%. That's 100 out of 100 for folks who are confused about percentages, by the way. 100% of a better shooter than him, as opposed to modeling his game after Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, which is what he should do.

46:54 The Spurs are maybe a little shakier, so I am giving the Lakers a real shot because I have seen Luka, with a roster similar to this one, make the finals. With Austin playing the Kyrie role, Walker Kessler playing the rotating Daniel Gafford role. Like, I see it happening. I still, my beef with the Lakers is I don't think they maximized the last few years of.

47:20 The LeBron tenure.

47:22 But I do understand them wanting to totally turn the team over to Luka. which, to your point, was just going to be impossible from almost a media and narrative perspective with the greatest athlete to ever live still being on his team.

47:38 Nick Wright, how'd you do this weekend? I had another good one. How'd you do this weekend?

47:42 Well, you know, I was.

47:43 Going to win a $ 21 million survivor contest, Colin. We were down to 1,000 people. I had the third most valuable entry, and I put my fate in Aaron Glenn and the New York Jets' hands. So I did not do well. And I knew I was going to regret that 98% of the time, which is 98 out of 100.

48:04 Good to see you, Colin.

48:07 Good to see you too, Nick Wright. I asked him that because I knew that was rough. That is, I mean, you just see that gigantic lottery ticket out there. Can't sleep. Every lottery ticket I've ever purchased, by the way, I'm absolutely sure I'm going to win it.

48:24 When was the last time you played the lottery?

48:26 I always buy a ticket.

48:27 Always?

48:28 Why not?

48:28 Like every week?

48:29 Well, I mean, when it gets, you know, big.

48:31 Somebody once told me that's called the stupid tax.

48:34 Well, I guess I'm stupid.

48:35 Hmm.

48:37 If it's like $ 750 million, I'll buy a couple tickets.

48:40 I'm not buying $ 600 worth. I'm buying like $ 10. If I have a $ 10 bill in my pocket, there's $ 10.

48:48 No wonder you haven't offered me to take me out to a meal or anything lately. You're spending all your money on lottery tickets.

48:55 I'm not going to give the name, but I had somebody who I respect greatly years ago in the financial sector say, If anything gets to a billion and you have as good a chance as anybody else to win that billion, go buy a lottery ticket. Okay.

49:09 Just go buy a couple. Can you text me next time it's at a billion? I don't check the lotto numbers regularly.

49:14 Uncle Colin does.

49:15 Want more Herd? The Herd streams 24 hours a day, seven days a week within the iHeartRadio app. Search Herd to listen live or on demand whenever you'd like.

49:26 This is how you open a season.

49:28 Villanova and Notre Dame men's and women's hoop teams head to Rome for the first ever Eternal City tip-off. Catch the doubleheader Sunday on Fox and FS1.

49:42 You been to Rome?

49:44 Not yet.

49:45 I don't have the travel budget you do.

49:47 Well, I'll tell you, it's a little hot in the summer, but if you can get there in May or maybe September.

49:52 I have seen Gladiator.

49:54 Oh, that doesn't count.

49:55 Did that make your top.

49:55 Of your list?

49:56 I didn't do all the touristy stuff. I rented Vespas and I traveled around.

50:00 You just rode a Vespa around Rome?

50:02 It was bad.

50:03 Did you wear like a GoPro?

50:04 The parking in Rome is, hey, good luck. It's not great. People park right in front of the restaurant on the sidewalk. Just not a lot of rules and regulations there.

50:11 Oh, I love that.

50:12 I love no rules.

50:13 So congratulations to the Milwaukee Brewers. You know, I've been preaching. I said in the middle of the season, it's been archived. I said, what's going to happen if Milwaukee and the Rays make the World Series? Because you've lectured me on that you can't compete when you have a small payroll. Well, that's what we got. And Milwaukee's not just a good team.

50:35 They're a powerhouse. I mean, they've been great for six years, seven years. This year, it was everybody hit. Everybody, bullpen, 105-mile-an-hour throwing ace. Here's Joe Davis with the final call.

50:52 2-1 pitch, Palacios.

50:57 Grounds won softly, unshakable, unstoppable, and champions at last, the Milwaukee Brewers.

51:14 Were the only old guys on the team, Christian Yelich, like one of the only guys that may get a little gray here in the next seven to 10 years. Here he was after.

51:25 Best feeling ever.

51:25 Look at all of our fans are here.

51:28 I know the city's waited a long, long time for this, and we're so happy to bring it home to them.

51:33 Can't wait to get back there and celebrate.

51:35 I wish everybody could experience what this feels like.

51:38 It feels amazing, and I'm just so proud of this group of guys.

51:41 It's so nice to win a World Series at home, and that's what it sounded like. It must have been 70, 30 Brewers fans. There were legendary stories down there. The beer consumption, and yes, Wisconsin beer. You can look it up. Use Claude, GPT, or whatevs. Chat GPT. Wisconsinites drink more beer on average than anybody in the country by far.

52:04 And so congrats to all the bar owners in the Tampa-St. Pete area. But I found them an easy, easy team to root for. The postgame, it was like watching the College World Series. I said that earlier. Just a bunch of kids crying. It was just wonderful. So, often in football... in college football, you will see a wounded team and they will rally around their coach. And as an underdog pullout, an unthinkable win and Lincoln Riley at USC is the definition this week of wounded. This is a moment. The Buckeyes are starting not only a backup, but a first-time starter.

52:48 It's in LA where the Trojans have been pretty good. It's going to be sloppy and rainy weather. That could help. And it's also 2026 college football. You don't know what the hell's going to happen Saturday to Saturday. If the Buckeyes roll USC, it's not competitive. That will tell us a story about how much the players believe in what Riley is preaching. And Ohio State's one of the more physical football programs in the country. That has been a very fair criticism of USC. Some of the criticisms aren't fair.

53:21 The lack of toughness and physicality is totally fair. So it's a new day in college football. Two weeks ago, five of the top seven teams lost. Last week, three of the top ten teams lost. And the number one team, or the number two team in the last couple of weeks, has lost to an unranked team. So, and again, this is one of those games where... USC's at home. They have a veteran starting quarterback off a bad game, so he'll probably be very focused. I think it's the best offensive line they've had at USC, so they can hold Ohio State defensive front always a factor, a little at bay.

54:00 USC is healthy. Again, they come off an embarrassing loss, so that can often help. Ohio State was inactive last week. Will they be a little rusty early? But, I mean, you know, It's interesting to watch when and if programs rally around their coach. Ryan Day was in trouble a couple years ago. He lost to Michigan again. He lost to Harbaugh again, and everybody wanted him fired. The Buckeyes totally rallied around their coach and played perfect football for the next month and won the national championship. So this is Project Hail Mary for USC. Ohio State's been the better program for the last 10 to 12 years. Saturday night is the last chance for Lincoln Riley. He beats Ohio State and he beats Indiana. A lot of the

54:50 people are going to look up and go, well, it is a $ 55 million buyout. Here's his left tackle, one of his best players on Riley and his leadership.

55:01 I know he's the right guy. Coach Riley is actually the reason I came here. I believe there's not a better leader in the country, and I love going to war for Coach Riley. I believe that everybody in the locker room and this entire building thinks the same thing.

55:16 So we'll see that this is the classic upset where you got a star program off a buy in the NFL. You know, it's funny about buys. Andy Reed is great off a buy, but we've found this in the NFL playoffs. You know, they, the number one seeds are the only teams that get buys. It doesn't necessarily make you a greater team. It's a great time at the end of the year to get healthy, but college kids off a buy, you know, I think it helps for some coaches. We'll see if it helps for Ohio state. Um, But, you know, USC off an embarrassing loss at home, going to be wet, sold out crowd, according to the, you know, the people who send PR people who send that out. And you've got a veteran quarterback off probably a shaky start in

55:59 the last couple of years. So he's ticked off. So USC schedule to me, there's too many losses on it to retain, you know. the position as head coach. I think Ohio State-USC is going to be very, very close. I would take Ohio State. Would not be shocked with a backup quarterback who hasn't ever started if they won.

56:21 This is a tough spot for Ohio State, but I think their defense, special teams, coaching, physicality will prevail. Indiana's a bad matchup at Indiana. USC has not played well in November on the road in the Big Ten. Indiana's receiving core is a problem. Maryland's a W at home, but UCLA now is undefeated. So you've got an Ohio State-Indiana-UCLA schedule going forward. That's rough. That is rough. But this will tell us a lot. If they come out and lose over time or it's competitive, that tells you the team's still buying into Lincoln. If they get rolled and pushed around or perform like they did at Wisconsin they have too good a talent to do that too good of a quarterback that'll also tell you something all

57:01 right NFL schedule is out already I think tonight Green Bay and I know Milwaukee's feeling great right now with the Brewers but I think Carolina got humiliated last week I would take I would take the points and Carolina tonight at Green Bay um I I think it's a really really interesting Sunday Minnesota Detroit is going to be excellent and it's going to be close uh Lamar Jackson, we think, playing against Josh Allen, a defining game. I think Chicago at Seattle is fascinating. I told you, upset.

57:40 alert if there's one i don't know i don't really consider cleveland winning at pittsburgh as an upset.

57:45 Well i think pittsburgh has won something like 22 straight in the regular season at home against the browns they did have that playoff loss uh to baker i think bed ben had like five interceptions but uh a lot of divisional matchups this weekend colin all over the board you know what the public likes give me the home team in the division favored what about that washington philly game that's a i mean i've seen that six and a half seven Are you laying seven with Washington against the Eagles?

58:13 Even though it's Tanner McKee, I mean, maybe Joe Milton.

58:17 Do you and I trust Washington?

58:20 Well, that's the thing.

58:21 Some of these guys take pride, right? Tennessee just traded Jeffrey Simmons. I don't know what the locker room's like. What's your best guess? Right now, today, that was your locker room leader the last five years.

58:31 He's out the door i think cincinnati's the play but the numbers.

58:35 But the numbers like 11 and a half but do the guys quit when who does somebody step fill into that void as leader it's cam ward or do you think that's over guys they don't they don't trust us they're building for next year trade deadline as it nears it's interesting outcomes it's interesting reactions by players who are in the paper they're going to get traded how do they play are they showing off or they're Not showing off.

58:58 Be sure to catch live editions of The Herd weekdays at noon Eastern, 9 a.m.

59:02 Pacific.

59:04 Here we go. It is Friday, hour number two. the big talk this week has really been jeffrey simmons to the bears it developed late danny parkins around the corner lamar jackson is going to be facing josh allen that's in my picks A lot of mystery around Lamar in the last year and a half, two years. Not a fan of it. I'll say it again. The knock, John Harbaugh took the hurt, the hit. The coach took the hit for all those blown leads in games. Harbaugh goes to the Giants where they had, the year before, an egregious number of blown leads. Harbaugh goes to the giants.

59:48 They no longer blow leads. He leaves the Ravens. They still blow leads at a league leading pace. So maybe it wasn't Harbaugh's issue. It was cultural, the quarterback, whatevs. So off another winning week, three, one, and one last week. Here we go. Our blazing five.

1:00:07 Let's blaze it up. It's Collins blazing five. Vikings and lions.

1:00:13 Well, I like the hook. I'm going to take the Vikings plus three and a half divisional game. They've won 11 straight. That's the best in the league. They're tremendous in close games for the last five games have been one score games. And under Kevin O'Connell, there are 35 and 13 in one score game. So they're in a lot of them and they're good with them. Also opposing quarterbacks against Brian Flores defense this year, passer rating is 62.

1:00:35 So Even Jared Goff of the Lions, 0-2 last year against them. Jared Goff, an excellent quarterback, has struggled. Last year, sacked 10 times against Brian Flores' defense. And right now, 34% of the time, offenses score against Detroit. Now, this is a BB gun of an offense. But three and a half is too many points in what I perceive is a very low-scoring game. Lions will win. Vikings will cover 24-23 Detroit.

1:01:10 Ravens and Bills.

1:01:12 I like the Bills minus three, eight and all after a bye in the Josh Allen era. They've now got an offensive coach. They tend to love bye weeks, 31 and six at home over the last five seasons. So a good home team off a bye with an offensive coach and their offense right now is 33 a game. It's number one in the NFL. The Ravens Their second half's were abysmal. They were last year. They are now lost back-to-back games and held under 14 in both shut out in the second half of three of their four games.

1:01:42 Is it coaching? Jesse mentor saying this week, we're looking for leadership. Their second half offense, even if they start strong is anemic. I like the bills to win. I like the bills to cover 28 to 23. Chiefs said Broncos. I'm going to take Kansas City minus one and a half. Why? My rule is if good coaches and quarterbacks get humiliated on national TV solo games, silo games, they always play well the next week. The offense, despite no Josh Simmons, fewest sacks allowed, and that's because they're running it and passing quickly. They're defense number two. They're red zone number two.

1:02:22 And Bo Nix is not exactly lighting it up against Kansas. Steve Spagnuolo. Jalen Waddell is also banged up. I'm going to take Kansas City's defense to create turnovers in field position. I'll take Kansas City minus the points, winning 27-21.

1:02:42 Patriots and Dolphins.

1:02:43 People are too high on the Dolphins now. Oh, man, they're starting to play well. Patriots minus seven. They blow them out. They're coming off extra rest. I watched them live. That defense is going to gobble up Miami. Drake May leads the NFL in several categories, and that's without a number one receiver. At least A.J. Brown's not playing like it or a number one back. Their defense, two of the last three games, has been outstanding. Miami's got four of their five losses have been over a touchdown. I do think they're playing better now than a month ago. But, I mean, they faced two top ten offenses this year, the Niners and the Chiefs. They got blown out in both.

1:03:19 Patriots win. They pull away in the second half. Jeff Halfley's doing a good job with a limited cupboard. 34-13. Swallow the touchdown. The better team, the better staff, the better quarterback pull away easily in the second half.

1:03:36 Bears at Seahawks.

1:03:38 I like Chicago plus a field goal coming off rest. Seahawks playing in their third straight prime time game. Those are over taxing, heavily emotional games. By the way, the Bears are 3-0 and average 40 when Caleb starts and finishes. It's a good offense with a lot of weapons. Luther Burden, Colston Loveland. The Seahawks, 12 giveaways since Darnold returned. And I love Sam, but they don't have a consistent run game.

1:04:04 Darnold tends to press when he doesn't have a consistent run game. Their rushing grade this year is 29. Not good. We're still waiting for Price to come back. He can be their home run guy, the rookie out of Notre Dame. Again, these are emotional moments. prime time games seattle their third straight i'm gonna take the bears to win a good one 28 to 24 winning straight up and with that we said it is i moved to chicago i mean you're just we're scheduling parades now let's go to danny parker.

1:04:43 Calling all sports fans. Calling all sports fans.

1:04:47 It's time to park it for parking.

1:04:53 He is joining us, the former Chicago radio legend. Okay, I thought there was something very funny this week. Fans often say, you sports guys, me specifically, you flip-flop. Well, the ultimate flip-flop happened this week. So tell people about the poll that you did this week, the reaction to the Simmons trade.

1:05:13 Yeah, so I.

1:05:14 Had gotten, listen, nowhere near enough to even consider reporting on anything, but I knew that Ryan Poles was big game hunting, the Bears general manager, and I knew that, you know, his time in Kansas City, they had Chris Jones. I knew the Bears' biggest weakness was defensive tackle, 28th in pressures, last in double teams among Bears' defensive tackles.

1:05:32 So I was like, you know what, let's take a shot, you know, day before yesterday, and I put it out on Twitter. Hey, Bears fans, how would you feel if the team traded two first round picks for 29 year old Jeffrey Simmons? And over 12,000 people voted and 62% of bears fans said.

1:05:48 They would not like it.

1:05:49 And many people, frankly, were very mean to me, Colin, in the cop, in the comments, you don't know what you're talking about. He wouldn't go for two first round picks the day it happened. I waited like an hour or two and I said, Hey, bears fans, uh, do you like the trade of two first round picks for Jeffrey Simmons? And 62% said, yes, you know, it's a very, uh, yes for me and not for the type of situation.

1:06:14 And I get it because it is a, it's a huge acquisition cost to go out and get a non quarterback, but he's a special player. And it's very exciting when your team says we are good enough to make this type of move and make no mistake about it. It is expensive, but it's an all in move for this year and And for the rest of Caleb Williams' rookie contract, that's the window in which the Bears are being hyper-aggressive to go win a Super Bowl.

1:06:39 Yeah.

1:06:40 And I was told this years ago by an executive late first round picks tend to be players often talented enough to be the number 11 pick. But they've got a red flag or they've got injuries or there's some emotional stuff. So they drop. They're still really gifted, but there's something there. And my argument is Simmons is not only great, he's a team captain. He's one of the 10 players in the league. That's coordinator proof in 2020.

1:07:08 They didn't have a defensive coordinator. He was still great. So to me, it makes a ton of sense. Do you have any, anything about this move?

1:07:15 You don't like. No, it's hyper aggressive.

1:07:20 Listen, he's the oldest player ever to be traded for multiple first round picks. That's not a quarterback. So like there is some risk, right? There's risk with this stuff because you shrink your margin for error. The Packers saw that when they traded for Micah Parsons and then he got hurt. We saw this with the Colts last year.

1:07:36 They traded for Sauce Gardner and then Daniel Jones got hurt. So you do shrink your margin for error. But what I would say about this particular set of circumstances is there aren't that many data points of defensive players being traded for multiple first-round picks, and we can go through all of them. When the Bears did it for Khalil Mack, it was the most ever given up for a defensive player, and they had to sign him into the biggest contract ever for a defensive player. They didn't know if their coach was good. Matt Nagy had never been a head coach, and they had only seen one year of Mitch Trubisky, and they were hoping he was going to be good.

1:08:08 The Rams did it for Jalen Ramsey and they won a super bowl, but they also had to trade for Matt Stafford.

1:08:14 In order to do it.

1:08:15 The Seahawks did it for Jamal Adams. That was a disaster.

1:08:19 The Colts did it for sauce Gardner.

1:08:21 Why I didn't like that move is I thought sauce Gardner was very good, but not the best at his position. I had him as like the fourth or fifth best corner and you were backing up Daniel Jones. And so then you get, and the Micah Parsons, You know, he gets hurt. OK, bad luck. But you had also already paid Jordan Love. So the Bears are in a very unique circumstance. We're already into the season. So we know that they're good. To your point, the first round pick should be low draft picks. Their quarterback is excellent. Their quarterback is cheap. And Jeffrey Simmons has already been signed.

1:08:53 You don't have to give him a top of the market deal or worry about a contract holdout like you did with Micah Parsons or Jalen Ramsey or Guy like that.

1:09:00 So it is risky.

1:09:02 These moves are always risky, but they check a lot of boxes why this is the least risky of all of those times it's happened before.

1:09:10 Jordan Love's interesting. So you can look and I'm not in any way discounting how good Favre and Aaron were, but there was an understanding almost they only each won one trophy. That's the same number of trophies as Trent Dilfer has and the same number as Brad Johnson and Sam Darnold. So there's a sense with those guys, though, they had good marketing. They had kind of images. Aaron was this California cool guy on a lot of commercials.

1:09:38 Favre was this Southern guy, relatable, the hunting cap. Jordan Love has no marketing. He has no image. He's just a nice kid. And so I'm watching him last night. This team is number one in penalties. They fumbled twice. It's the worst O-line. It's the worst run game since the 19-something Baltimore Colts. I mean, like 1942. We don't know if we love Matt LaFleur. The defense is OK.

1:10:00 Mike is not available. And the guy literally does something that's impossible. He has the least amount of time to throw and yet leads the NFL in big plays. That's I thought that was impossible. Is Jordan Love the victim of he doesn't care about an image. He doesn't have national commercials. He doesn't appear to want him. But if you start looking at what he's doing, he's a lot closer to Aaron Rodgers than we want to admit.

1:10:26 Yeah, especially for Bears fans. It is really sickening that that franchise gets to go from Favre to Rodgers to Jordan Love because Love is fantastic. And I think that he is the number one case study this year for the numbers being a bit misleading. And his numbers are very, very good. But you have to watch it to see it.

1:10:47 The Packers have 20 drops this year from pass catchers.

1:10:51 That's the most in the NFL.

1:10:53 The Titans are second with 12. So he's had to deal with 20 drops. His receivers, the next closest is 12. They've gained 150 yards from pass interference penalties, Colin. So he's drawing pass interferences. His receivers are dropping the ball. We went back, my researcher Troy today went back and charted it. Five of those drops, according to NextGenStats, have happened in the end zone. So that is five touchdowns off the board from passes that hit his guy in the hands, and that is not including Matthew Golden's drop touchdown last night, which was not graded a drop somehow, according to NextGen, I guess because he had to turn his body.

1:11:29 A little bit.

1:11:30 He's gotten nothing from the run game. He has gotten nothing. Not nearly enough from his wide receivers. As you mentioned, his offensive line is injured. But every pass that Jordan Love throws out there is hitting his guys right between the numbers. He's been excellent this year. I hate to admit it as a Bears guy, but he's been simply fantastic.

1:11:47 So the NFL tends to be a buy low, sell high league. And I sold all my Lamar stock this offseason. And I said, I want... I like my movies to have mystery, not my quarterbacks. Is he practicing? Is he playing? Nobody knows. Is he mad at the team? So they get rid of Harbaugh because he's the reason they blow leads.

1:12:10 And then he goes to New York, a team that blows leads, and they've solved it. And Baltimore still blows leads. So it's like, you know, you're going to fire the coach. You're not going to fire the star quarterback. But I said during the off season, the minute I get mystery and I'm not saying Kawhi Leonard level, but there were moving in that direction where I'm not. Is he practicing?

1:12:29 Is he playing? The team was shocked. According to Tracy Wolfson last week, shocked. He didn't play. That's not good. Where are you today on the Ascension? If there is any with Lamar, where do you stand today with him?

1:12:44 If you told me.

1:12:45 Right now Lamar Jackson was going to play every game the rest of this season, I would tell you the Baltimore Ravens are a Super Bowl contender. But I would also ask you, how do you know he's going to play every game the rest of the season? It's just like, I know it's a league where there is injury, but there was a front page article at ESPN.com this week about the mysterious case of Lamar Jackson's injury history with the Baltimore Ravens. And it had a quote in there from Marlon Humphrey, longest tenured Raven, extremely respected player, who's like, we know that if Lamar is good to go, he's.

1:13:17 Going to go.

1:13:18 And then the article has four separate incidents from four separate seasons. of which Lamar Jackson and the team were not on the same page with whether or not he was going to go from injury.

1:13:30 And Marlon Humphrey's like, it's not fair. It's this media creation. Other guys don't get it.

1:13:35 And then the writer's like, except for A, B, C, and D example, where the team said one thing and the player did something else. I agree with you, mystery isn't good, but again, he is so special. He is such a singular talent in the league. Honestly, if you told me you were going to get a guy's A-plus game, he might be, because of the dual threat nature of it, the single hardest player in the league to game plan for if you know you're going to get his A game.

1:14:02 They're a contender, which is why no team is going to be able to quit him, even if it is weird with all this injury stuff that keeps happening.

1:14:09 Monday Night Football, you get the best defense in the league, Seattle. It looks the part. It is the part. They can play nickel packages. Their safeties and corners tackle so well, it doesn't really matter. Even their secondary, they play like linebackers. Against the best offense, Caleb Ben Johnson and the weapons.

1:14:28 I like Chicago in this. I tend to think great offense, great defense in the NFL. Even the Seahawks defense last year, the Rams had no problem moving the ball up the field. And now I get a quarterback playing like Stafford with mobility. How do you see the game? What do you what do you project? What will it look like?

1:14:46 Listen, I think that Caleb Williams and the Bears' offense will have more success than anyone has had against Seattle this year in terms of statistical production. The Niners scored 32 points, but they got four takeaways. There were giveaways, honestly, from Seattle. The Commanders scored 33 points. They got three turnovers.

1:15:05 The only team to crack 300 yards of offense against them was the Chargers.

1:15:11 And over 220 of.

1:15:12 Those yards came when they were down three scores in garbage time. So I think the Bears' offense will look better than any offense has looked against them. This was a game I predicted the Bears to lose before the year. Just like everybody predicted, it's going to be Seahawks-Bears, Quentin Nelson blocking Jeffrey Simmons. The league is just unbelievable that they get that matchup in this spot. So all I will say about this, I'm keeping it away from Parkins' picks.

1:15:37 You know, I'm not terribly confident that they're going to go into Seattle and win in prime time. But if they do, I just want it on the record right now that I'm reserving the guest bedroom at your condo or the house, whichever one, a parade weekend. And I've already looked into red-eye flights to get back to New York to do the show after the Super Bowl and SoFi if they win this game. I've got a soft hold on it. They are Super Bowl contenders officially Tuesday morning if they win this game.

1:16:03 Danny Parkin is always a buddy. Great seeing you.

1:16:04 All right, buddy.

1:16:06 We'll talk soon.

1:16:07 All right.