Sharp or Square - NFL Week 8 Reactions: Chiefs-Broncos, Ravens-Bills and more

0:00 Welcome to Sharper Square presented by PolyMarkets. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.

0:13 I am Chad Millman.

0:14 I'm joined as always by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter.

0:23 Hello, Simon.

0:25 Chad, how are we doing?

0:27 What a crazy.

0:29 Crazy, weird day full of laid eggs, backdoor covers, injured quarterbacks, injured second string quarterbacks, games in which we were dead from the get-go, games in which we won with miracle comebacks.

0:48 Just a riotous, glorious, exciting, insane gut punch of a day, Simon. After all of it, after all of it, we are two and three. Our last game in, after eight years together, we finally started to learn some lessons. Both of us were feeling icky about the Cleveland Browns this morning. At plus three and a half, we took them out. We put in the Miami Dolphins at seven and a half, a number we had been saying.

1:24 All week we have to play. We got it. We did it.

1:28 Also on the table was Denver plus one and a half.

1:30 You're watching that right now. I don't know how that's turning out.

1:34 Miami replaced the Browns in the final seconds before we chose the line on the Jets. It had moved from one and a half to two and a half. We didn't hesitate on that. It didn't matter. Like I said, two and three on the day. Crazy day. I don't know about you, but I watched the whole day. It just felt the first hour of red zone was just insane.

1:58 Honestly, this felt like it was great games. Coming into it, I thought it might be not a stinker of a day, but just not that much juice for the day. And it ended up being a great day. I mean, that Tennessee-Cincinnati-Arizona-Dallas game. Yeah, you got two games over time. It doesn't get much better. And we've just been very spoiled this year. It feels like every week we have yet to have a dud. Every week is really competitive and really intense games. And unfortunately... didn't bounce our way for our bets wise, but overall I'm, I'm happy to survive a two and three day where, like you said, you're basically, we're guaranteed to be own one to start the day, no matter what, as soon as Lamar went down. So, um,

2:34 you know, the fact that we can crawl our way to two and three, I'll, I'll take those weeks on a week that felt really tough from the start.

2:40 This is our Sunday night NFL week eight reaction show. We'll recap the misery and the glory of the day from our final five picks in the sharper square pro football pick them contest. Simon, We weren't going to avoid the New York Jets. One and a half, two and a half, underdogs, whatever. All the conversations we both had with professional bettors were about people betting on the Jets.

3:05 And for two and a half quarters, dude, we were freaking geniuses. It's such a bummer that they got to play 60 minutes because the Jets had five scoring drives in their first five possessions. First time they had done that in 20 years. And then the Raiders went and scored 28 points in the second half.

3:33 And the Jets lose outright.

3:35 What a, what a, uh, cluster of a game that you just, you could feel it slipping from your fingers the entire second half.

3:45 Yeah.

3:45 Brutal, brutal game where it felt like it was all going our way with that Jets team. And, um, Two biggest plays stand out to me is, you know, they get basically a stop on third down against the Raiders. And it was a penalty. Like, I think it was a false start by the Raiders. They backed them up five yards. It was third and 11 to the end zone.

4:04 And of course, Kirk Cousins throws a touchdown pass. I scored a touchdown that play. And then obviously the kick return first kick return of the season scored by anybody. Just, just deadly where it's like, those are 14 points that shouldn't have existed. Unfortunately they did. And, Can't really be mad at Gino at the end of the game. Like, yeah, he didn't live up to the moment, but you put up 33 at home. You expect to win that game.

4:26 And just a total no-show by Jets defense and their special teams. And a game I thought was going to be a really good spot. And like that Jets fan said, there is no Jets spot. And he is so true. But my God, that was just brutal if you're a Jets backer. Because like Chad said, it felt good to start. And then it just all went sideways in that second half.

4:44 Not just good, but the Jets were competent.

4:49 Like Gino was dealing.

4:51 I think he had four or five incompletions in the first half, 146 yards, two touchdowns. Braylon Allen had 120 something rushing yards in the first half. They have limited the Raiders to 14 points after a really good opening drive, touchdown drive for the Raiders. Like they were completely and totally dominating this game. And even after the Raiders went down the field and scored a touchdown to open the second half, The Jets just answered, but then the Raiders had knockout punch after knockout punch after knockout punch, and the Jets couldn't put it together. It's such a bummer because Geno doesn't look terrible this year, and there are moments where this offense looks halfway competent. Whatever they did

5:39 at halftime, the Raiders made so many adjustments to start getting the ball to their tight ends, and the Jets had no answers for that.

5:47 So... So disappointing. That was a big pivot game for us.

5:53 Well, Judd, the man who mentioned his athletic article no smaller than 10 times, it looks like you were right. The Kansas City Chiefs got down to the one and got stuffed three times, four times.

6:05 Wow.

6:06 Denver just won the game 28-24.

6:07 Are you referring to the story I wrote for The Athletic?

6:11 I am. What was it about?

6:14 I wrote this story for The Athletic in which you looked at the data of quarterbacks from 2018 when Patrick Mahomes began his epic run and of 101 quarterbacks who had been favored and were getting the majority of the tickets, Patrick Mahomes is.

6:37 101st out of 101 quarterbacks The streak continues today. Good for us. I wish I had had the courage.

6:47 You laid it on me earlier today to put the Broncos in. And the other game that I might have taken out, other than the Browns, was the Minnesota Vikings. Matt, I'm going to transition to that one, not in order. Because I do want to say, Simon, of the quarterbacks who have been favored getting the majority of the bets since 2018... Do you.

7:11 Know who is the most profitable?

7:14 Jared Goff.

7:15 Jared freaking Goff.

7:19 And today, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions did us in. I'm dying to get your take on this game because the Vikings defense was so freaking good and so dominant. Kyler doesn't look like he can play in the NFL. Every throw was back foot. heave it up, hope and pray, prayer hands emoji. But this defense was amazing until they were just too tired to tackle anybody anymore.

7:51 Yeah, no regrets. I still think it was a good bet. They missed a field goal and the score was 12-7 and KOC went for it on fourth and five with 14 minutes left in the fourth quarter. So that right there is six points left on the field in the game. They lost by how many, Chad? Four. So it's like we give a guy praise. We got to shit on him when it's his fault. This is totally KFC's fault.

8:18 He mismanaged his game, called it wrong. You just said it. Like why is he having faith in Kyler with 14 minutes left to go for him, fourth and five from Detroit's 25-yard line?

8:27 Yeah, made no sense.

8:28 Made no sense. Made no sense.

8:30 Well, especially because later in the game they had a fourth and four with like three something minutes left. It was deep in the Lions territory. But at that point, he didn't go for it. You might not get the ball back. And that's exactly what happened. Like they had just given up a hundred yards rushing on one drive to the Lions. They threw one pass at the goal line.

8:58 Other than that, they went the entire length of the field running. And then he was expecting that his defense was just going to be able to stop the Lions again.

9:05 So It made no sense to me.

9:08 Terrible game. I'm broken up about it. Honestly, brutal. It was like, you know, at halftime, it's going exactly how we had hoped, right? The defense was dominating. The offense wasn't having stupid turnovers, and that was going to be the key to it. And, you know, Kyler was going to throw one. He eventually did. And like you said, he's so inconsistent. He's so bad. But the defense is so good. They've done so well the whole game. I think they had four sacks, but it didn't matter. Just mismanagement by KOC there. Not taking the three when he had the chance. And obviously, it's not his fault. His kicker missed the other field goal. But yeah, just pretty brutal.

9:43 And it's such a close game that, you know, yeah, their defense gave up 150 or whatever. It was 200 yards on the ground. But they dominated golf in that game. I know we talked about the stats coming, how good he is.

9:53 Crushed him.

9:54 Yeah, against the Blitz. But he really needed that run game to save him today just because the exotic Blitzes is so tough. Doesn't matter how good you are, the looks they're giving him, he didn't know which guy was coming at certain points. So, yeah, it's tough. This is like the whole reason though that I wanted to back this Vikings team is I knew, you know, Detroit's the better side. They're obviously the more complete offense, but that was just going to be such a public side and Yeah, the public got away with one. They had a couple of games today they got away with one. This was definitely one where it's like, yeah. Yeah, that fourth quarter, it all went their way with Detroit. On the flip side,

10:28 it all went the other way for the Vikings.

10:31 Yeah, it was a brutal game to watch at the end. At one point, it was 12-7, like you said. The Vikings were up.

10:43 No, wait. The Vikings were down. The Vikings were down. What was it? 7-6 or something like that?

10:48 No, you're right. They were down 12-7. Vikings were up 7-6. Right.

10:52 They were up 7-6. And Jameer Gibbs finally sort of broke free for a touchdown. And in that moment, I was like, this defense can't hold them forever. Like, they're going to break one time. It's too physical of a game. And then we saw it at the end, like that second string running back for the Lions was just Again and again and again, they couldn't stop. And it was so, so frustrating. So frustrating to watch, Simon.

11:24 That one hurt. That one did. Not going to lie.

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12:09 In the description to join my squad today. And Sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use SHARP. You sign up that SHARP to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Let's talk about a game that made us really happy today. Arizona Cardinals plus seven and a half at the Dallas Cowboys.

12:34 Jacoby Bursette was struggling nonstop In this game, the Cowboys weren't playing so well. So like the Cardinals were keeping it close, keeping it close, keeping it close. They fumbled at the goal line and then the Cowboys recovered in the end zone. Jeremiah Love limped off the field through his helmet in the first quarter. Then Simon. Cardinals are down 17-3. Jacoby Brissett has a 41 quarterback rating. And Mike LaFleur pulls the plug and brings in Gardner Magic Man Minshew.

13:17 And chaos ensued.

13:19 I don't know about you, but as soon as he came in, I'm like, we got a shot.

13:26 No chance. I had that feeling. Did you really? No, that was never my mindset. My mindset always was going to be, well, we're just seven points away from covering. That was my mentality. Like you just said, the whole time, you're always just seven points away from covering because it's such a huge number. And we've talked about Dallas defense is atrocious. They really are. And I'm so happy they took Brissette out because he was missing open guys. He had happy feet. He just was not playing in the offense and rhythm. Minshew coming in and throwing for 190 in three touchdowns is mind-blowing. It's truly mind-blowing. Even saying that out loud sounds made up, but that's a real stat line. He came in, what was the second half

14:02 or midway through?

14:03 Midway through the second half and three straight touchdown drives for this guy.

14:09 So just we talk all the time about playing the number and not try not to overthink it. And Arizona is definitely a team that we overthought some weeks. We overthought them against the Rams, overthought them not playing the Denver against them. And I'm so glad this week we stuck to it where it's just like a lot of people message me just like, aren't you worried the line's moving against you guys? And it's like, I get what you're saying, but there's some times where that's a good thing because we're getting even better, a better number. And I already talked about it. There's just so much public money on these teasers, parlays. The books needed Arizona money.

14:42 They really did. And I, you know, was happy to oblige them and take the seven and a half. But yeah, that was a game where I feel like I used up a lot of my luck until they missed that extra point where it's like, okay, now I'm even like this, this is a type of game where they probably are still going to lose Arizona. They still somehow won that game.

14:59 All right. Despite punting and overtime like Dak, I think it was some stat. They had 27 offensive possessions. They had a total of 26 yards from that point forward after Minshew came in. So that's an incredibly damning stat. I mean, I will send you this article, but I basically read a whole thing about how Arizona knows basically what's coming from the Cowboys. There's this whole crazy fan theory about it where Gannon went there and had a ton of success against Dallas Cowboys. And apparently he was getting information to this, you know, coaching staff defensively. And at first I was like, that was such a BS article.

15:38 Why did I even read that thing? Because the Cowboys were ripping them on, you know, they're just destroying this Arizona defense. And whatever happened, those adjustments they made, they really totally shut down the Cowboys in that second half. So I know it wasn't looked that way because they put up 30, but Arizona was doing everything they could to give this game away. And they somehow came back and found a way, not just to cover, but to win this game outright. And yeah, Jerry Jones, I mean, You're 3-5. I don't know what he's going to do at this point. What can he do? But I think the first move is to fire the D.C. You have to get rid of somebody here. You can't be 3-5 with Dallas right now and not be fully embarrassed. Some

16:13 of these losses are just embarrassing. And Arizona now has never lost still in AT & T Stadium. Crazy stat.

16:21 I'm just surprised.

16:22 So you read an article that I didn't write.

16:26 That's very surprising to me.

16:29 I didn't even know we brought up articles or books, for that matter, on the show, even though we're such a literate podcast, most literate sports betting podcast.

16:37 But I'm glad you're reading. I'm glad you're reading. I'm glad you're reading something.

16:40 Other than this stuff. The problem for me is I'm California sober, so I'll read stuff while I'm having a good time. I won't remember anything I just read. That's why people get mad at me. There's some information in my head. It leaves, unfortunately, because of my habits.

16:57 Ah, California sober. That's so good.

17:02 Well, listen, good for us and good for the Cardinals and good for us for not walking away. We stuck with that one. We believed in it. When Gardner Minshew came in, I'm like, okay, there's going to be some pep. And we got to give some credit here to Tyler Algiers, who I do want to talk about later in the show, foreshadowing Hint as a hero of the week. But the dude came in, the Cardinals were out of running backs.

17:30 And the guy came in and he was basically getting oxygen after every play.

17:36 But he was huffing and puffing.

17:37 63-yard touchdown on the second play of the series after Gardner Minshew comes in. A 50-yard run in the next series. A receiving touchdown. The dude was bonkers in this game in the second half, him and Gardner together. I really like Michael Flohr. I think, like, is this team playing for him? Is he making good calls? Is he getting lucky?

18:06 There's something about him.

18:07 A game away from him is win total. They already have three wins.

18:10 Isn't that insane?

18:11 That's insane.

18:12 Like, good for them and good for the Cardinals. They're a tragic franchise. They're cursed and they'll never be good.

18:17 But I.

18:19 Hope he makes a go of it and gets them a better job in the long run. Let's talk about.

18:28 The last game I want to talk about is going to be Miami and New England. So let's talk about Baltimore and Buffalo for a second. I mean, good Lord. Lamar Jackson, we had him at three and a half. One play fractures his thumb on a Bill's helmet.

18:45 It's over.

18:46 Half a quarter, Tyler Huntley, he's out.

18:50 So now we're down to, hold on, John Fignano, Joe Fignano. And the dude, two times, twice through two dimes into the Bills red zone, then got sacked. The Ravens missed a field goal. I don't know about you, but in that moment, I had better on one of the prediction markets. And I just had my thumb on the cash out button, ready to cash out of my Ravens trade. As soon as Tyler Loop hit that field goal Alas, he missed it.

19:31 And the whole thing just sort of flittered away. Flittered away from there, Simon.

19:37 Yeah, definitely wish I had put more money right away when the third string guy came back in on the Bills. that you know it's just we had no hope like i said that that's the toughest part about these days we have five vets where you have a game like this you're just guaranteed to own one already and it's like oh god now the start now we need to get some luck in these other games or stuff to bounce our way but um yeah this is just a looks like a lost season obviously for the ravens and i don't know what they're going to do going forward they have so many questions obviously to come in this up up season and Minter maybe got lucky here because there's no way he can lose his job at this point.

20:11 It's just how are you going to blame him? Their defense, once again, gave up in the second half. You could say, well, they lost their quarterbacks and they really were getting nothing from their quarterback. It was just bad luck. Even in this game, I think at one point it was 16-7. Derrick Henry runs in for a touchdown. They call it back on a hole. That's the type of thing where maybe we had a chance and there was an outside chance that changes the game, but Because you saw, I mean, Josh Allen did not have it in this game. No.

20:40 He was not his normal self in any way. So another game where I don't know what to make of the Bills and the same with the Ravens going forward. I think now, you know, they're playing the Jags. They were– I think they might have been a minus three favorite or a minus three dog. I'd have to look at my notes. But then, you know, Lamar is out now.

20:58 They're on the third stringer. What's that line going to be? Seven, seven and a half, something eight and a half maybe. I don't know what they're going to open it. It is.

21:04 It's seven and a half Thursday night.

21:07 Yeah, and that's the tough part. It's Thursday night, so it's like, what would have been a great spot, obviously, for this Ravens team is now an absolute nightmare. Like, you're playing a top three team, the AFC, with a team that just looks like they've given up at this point. So, yeah, just brutal, obviously, if you're a Ravens fan. It just feels like a total lost season.

21:29 Yeah, the line is seven and a half. Some places it's eight.

21:33 Looks like it's moving to eight Thursday night at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I looked at the stats in this game and it was shocking to me. The bills were only ahead by, I think nine at the time. Like it was closer than you would think considering the Ravens had 50 yards in the first half and the bills had 202.

21:54 Yards in the first half.

21:56 Like if I'm the bills, I'm a little, like maybe you were pulling the, your foot off the gas, but there were fumbles.

22:03 There were errant throws. Like you said, they.

22:06 Were not, as good as they could have been given the circumstances. It didn't need to be as close as it was. It ended up looking like it was a huge blowout.

22:15 You say they put their foot off the gas. With six minutes left in the fourth quarter, after Cook had already gotten hurt, Josh Allen was still in there throwing a touchdown pass to Kincaid. Very bizarre. Very bizarre why the Bills were still going hardcore at the end of that game.

22:29 When I say foot off the gas, what I really mean is it just felt like They knew they had the game and maybe that's why Joe Brady had him in late in the game is because they kind of weren't performing up to their expectations and didn't look like they were executing as well as they could have.

22:47 And he's like, screw it. You guys figured out how to do this well.

22:51 And I'm going to keep you in there and you're going to score a touchdown and we can feel good about something and not feel like we cakewalked, sleptwalked through a game that shouldn't have been as close as it was considering how dominant.

23:02 They were statistically. I think that's what I'm trying to say.

23:09 New England at Miami Miami plus seven and a half dude like in the first again this was like the Jets the first half easy breezy I had some butternut squash soup that my wife decided to make today I'm enjoying the game and then in the second half all of a sudden Drake May Steps up in the pocket again and again and again and again. They start slinging the ball downfield. This looked like it was going to get away from us. With three minutes left, and the Dolphins missed the field goal, I'm like, that's a bummer.

23:56 But they snuck it in. The rains came down. And from when I left my TV room on the second floor and walked up the dark hallway to the third floor, I log on and Matt Mitchell's like, dolphins are going to cover. And I'm like, I can't believe I missed it in those 30 seconds, but a gift, a gift for us.

24:19 Yeah. Another time you're just playing the number and hope. And, you know, I don't take it lightly. It's rare. I give out what my model is just because I take so much stupid bullshit where it's just people. You don't have another pro coming on and saying they think the line's off by three points in this Patriots-Miami game. I promise you. You won't find another show a pro is saying that just because you're putting yourself on a cliff edge.

24:43 They could have lost by 20. Miami's a bad team. People watch this game and it's just you're betting them. We know we're betting to a bad team, but you just see how they're so due for things to keep breaking their way. That's just how football is where teams will come and play these other teams where not that Patriots have had a lot of good luck this year, but they have offensively with these stupid turnovers. Like they've gotten away with a lot of stuff where I've talked about Drake May throws a lot of 50-50 balls. In this game, he looked like a whole different quarterback from first half to second half. First half, he couldn't do a thing offensively. Second half, I think they said he didn't have an incompletion until like five minutes left in

25:18 the fourth quarter. He was just incredible at second half. And game flipped, honestly, in my opinion, it came down to I think they're up 13-10. And it was fourth and two. Miami gets a stop. variable challenges it i'm watching the game live yep they show all the angles and he looks short and every angle they show and they just come out and go it's first down yeah i felt.

25:44 Like i missed it i felt like i missed the.

25:47 Watching the game live and it was just very bizarre they just they they said he extended his arm up you can see the line where the the marker is and he's clearly short of it so That was a game where I was like, oh, my God. This is literally going to be the greatest day ever for the public. Like, things are just going to keep breaking their way. But, yeah, thank God the back door came through. It's just such a big number. And, yeah, obviously the two-pointer didn't hit, and we could have lost again at a last-second field goal.

26:11 But New England gets the first down, and they kneel it down in Miami. One win, but they're now, what, 50% cover percentage this year? I feel like they're split. And we've been pretty good about timing when to bet and when to fade them in. I know a lot of people didn't feel comfortable betting this week just because they're coming off a win, which I totally get. But it's like, don't you guys see what I'm seeing where these lines are just inflated? Like A.J. Brown's playing maybe seven points or six and a half points makes sense. Drake May's throwing to garbage men and plumbers right now. Like Mario Douglas.

26:42 He was out four receivers and then Hunter Henry left the game.

26:45 And like nothing is tomorrow. Douglas look great. Like the guy's got burners. He's got wheels. But it's it's pretty, pretty impossible situation or putting Drake May into. And respect him. He obviously succeeded in that second half and really stepped up. Like Chad said, they scored 21 straight points. We were deader than dead. And then luckily, Elmery, three minutes left.

27:04 Malik Willis, a little foreshadowing by me. Deep ball, touchdown, gets us the cover, which we desperately needed.

27:11 Drake May. Drake May. Could be a top five quarterback in the NFL. Drake, Drake, May, May. Drake, Drake, May, May, May. Love Drake May. Good for Drake May. Good for us. Good for us.

27:25 A miraculous, glorious, backdoor cover in two and three week. Other games, Cleveland and Pittsburgh, good for us for taking us out. I felt like that was really good communication. Like in a team, you got to communicate. And we both were feeling a little bit off about that game. And I'm glad we said that to each other and took the game out because we put Miami in and that led to a win. This game was From the beginning, Deshaun was knocked out early. He fumbled when he came back in. The Steelers kept scoring. This one was terrible.

28:05 Nothing to say there. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you were locked in on them all week. Professionals were locked in on them all week. Bucky Irving had 100. On a day where Jameer Gibbs had 153. Jalen Warren had 143 yards rushing. Bucky Irving had 173 yards rushing. Baker Mayfield had zero completed passes. The Bucks became the first team since 1974 to not complete a pass and win a game.

28:39 Did you watch that game?

28:41 Every second, yeah. Anytime you have a stat that's 52 years old, the first thing to do in something in 53 years, it's a good feeling to be on that side of the betting.

28:49 Remarkable.

28:50 Yeah. Like Chad said, it was miserable, but I honestly felt like from the second you saw Penix drop back and throw the ball, I felt pretty, I don't know about you, I felt pretty good about being on the Bucs side. It was like, man, this kid looks totally uncomfortable and it looks like they're going to be, even if they were down by three, you're still going to have to put them in passing situations because you're down.

29:09 Where on the flip side, I love that Tampa just leaned into it. It was like, Baker doesn't have it. No one's going to have in this type of weather regardless. And Bucky and Gainwell are just two animals. Like they really are really good running backs and they lean into it with that offensive line. And yeah, that was probably my biggest complaint was that we missed on that one, but the weather just threw me off with Baker. It really did.

29:31 And yeah, me too. And his hand and yeah.

29:33 And like he was on cart, but he even took the glove off. Cause he said, I just, he couldn't grip the ball with the glove on in the rain. And. And little did I know, Baker, back-to-back weeks, six completions last week, zero completions this week, 2-0, both double-digit wins. Football is so stupid, but it's the best. It's like what we talked about, those Bucs defense is legit. You can say it's the weather. Robinson's top two, top three running back in football. And he couldn't get anything going in this game. Like on the flip side, as good as they were running, you know, anytime he averages four yards per carry, that'd be pretty good. But not when your quarterback can't pass the ball. Like you needed more

30:11 from B. John Robinson. The Bucs defense totally shut him down. I was really shocked by that and the fact that the weather was so bad and they were able to take him away. But, yeah, that was probably my biggest complaint from the fans. We missed on that one. And a lot of people ask why we don't flip. We knew something was wrong with Pittsburgh and the Cleveland. Yeah.

30:30 Why did we not just put Pittsburgh in? I hear you guys. I know. I don't know. It's a weird thing to do on Sunday morning because I haven't bet it. And that's the hardest part where it's like, we bet these things for real. And yeah, like the Bucs, I probably should have fought harder for it. But yeah, it was just the rain and late pro money coming to Atlanta was throwing me off on that one. It was like, am I missing something here? Because that one felt like it was too easy going into it.

30:52 I felt like we were going to wake up Sunday morning and put the Bucs in. And then the monsoon threw me as well, but also the money. Like we started to see a line move and we knew that was a late move from professionals. That definitely threw me off. The other one, obviously the Broncos. I started thinking I liked it a lot more late in the week, hearing more and more about professionals loving the Broncos here. In the end, I would have felt like it was a cheap win. I would have happily taken it. But this is a weird team. It's a weird team to be in first place in the AFC West. It's a weird division because the Raiders are fun and competitive. The Chiefs all of a sudden look vulnerable. Bo Nix looks dreadful.

31:43 Like it is a miracle he's getting catches down the field. I don't know what to make of any of these teams right now.

31:52 Definitely definitely got lucky here with uh denver but i'll take it so lucky it's just nice to be on the right side of it though but at the same time i'm with you like i had no confidence in because it's like i forgot about taking him a teaser but bo nicks he's still doing stuff i hate like these back throw back foot nonchalant throws not stepping up into the pocket not using his legs i hate it like even when he uses legs to get first downs it's like yes man this is you should be doing this more often these they're letting you get these free runs and He's not taking it, but yeah, what can you say? He scored 15 points in a fourth quarter and another day where the kicking game has let him down the Chiefs, man. It's put them in these bad

32:30 spots where their kicker makes that kick. Mahomes technically let him on a game-winning drive tonight, but they didn't because they needed a touchdown because their kicker missed kicks in high altitude, too. So, we talk all the time. These teams, I mean, it's the Rams' Achilles heel. It might be the Chiefs' Achilles heel this year. They just don't have a good special teams, and It's costing them games right now. So, yeah, Mahomes, I'm interested to see if they play next week. Two straight losses. My God, it sucks to be the team playing them this week after those type of games.

32:59 Yeah. I forgot. Hold on. I'm checking it right now because it popped up to me.

33:05 Oh, yeah.

33:07 They're 10-point favorites over the New York Jets in Kansas City.

33:11 That's going to be an interesting one. Hero of.

33:15 The week, I'm going to go with Tyler– Al Gere. Tyler Al Gere today playing for the Arizona Cardinals. Third string running back, pulled into emergency duty because the two guys ahead of him got hurt, came on the field with Gardner Minshew. Second play of the series with Gardner Minshew runs 63 yards. They show him for a touchdown.

33:41 They show him on the field on the sideline after that. And the guy is gasping for air. He is sitting on the bench. He's got the whole face mask of oxygen over his face. Next, very next series, 50-yard run, scores a touchdown in which he runs directly over someone on a pass he caught from Gardner Minshew. He won the game today for the Arizona Cardinals. He had 191 total yards of offense. I think 187 of them were in the final 20 minutes of the game. I mean, that's– he's a hero. When a hero comes along, he's got the strength to carry on.

34:28 Yeah, my hero's got to be Malik Willis. I just can't get over it. We were done. I can't believe he made that throw at the end of the game because that touchdown to get the cover. And this Miami team, the general public has just made fun of them and hated on them. And, you know, I just– I keep going back to their schedule because I just think it's so– Interesting how the story tells of coming into the year, we were all so down on them. They're laughing. It's not going to fail. And I took them number one pick in my loser's draft to have the most losses this year because, I mean, you look at this team on paper, they're a practice squad team. First game of the year, they lose 27-13 to Vegas. Then they play

35:02 the 49ers. They lose 35-13. Then they play the Chiefs at home and lose 24-10. So three straight games, three blown out games, double-digit losses. They then lose to the Minnesota Vikings by five, the Bengals by seven, beat the Jets, and they just lose to the Patriots by five. You have to say it's really impressive and an incredible turnaround. Malik, he's the quarterback. He deserves a ton of respect on a team that they could have packed it in. That's an embarrassing way to start the year, getting just absolutely blown out. And all those teams are really competitive. You're talking about Minnesota division leading, Cincinnati division leading, Patriots potentially could be a division leading team. These are really tough

35:37 teams they've stayed highly competitive with. So I just want people to adjust. I get the Miami 8, and we will eventually flip on them. We'll be batting against them. I'm trying to make a point to you guys. The general public is so low on this team, and every week you're getting two or three free points, and they've just been covering. So, yeah, really impressive stretch here by Malik Willis.

35:55 I think it's because most people just look at the final score. They look at the final score on the record, and they think Miami's terrible. They hear the stats about how Miami has the highest percentage of snaps taken by rookies in the past 20 years, 14 rookies on the roster, the most in the NFL. But they kind of play a little bit like a college team that doesn't know any better. And Malik Willow is like, is athletic enough?

36:20 And they kind of all are rallying around him. I don't know if you watched a lot of this game, but that running back, Ali Gordon, he lost his mind today. He got called for a taunting penalty after a run that could have been a real turning point in the game for them.

36:40 They got it to third and short. He gets up. He's hyped.

36:43 He taunts. It's now third and 20. He's taken off the field. He's yelling at Halfley. He's yelling at the coaches. He's yelling at Malik Wills. It looked like he was just yelling and yelling and yelling, like so angry about it. But he got back in that game and had some really important runs that put the Dolphins in a position to cover this. So they're fun to watch. Like they just, they got a spirit, even though they keep losing. They got a spirit.

37:08 Exactly.

37:09 Simon. Give me your shame on you.

37:13 Oh, man. There's so many choices to pick, obviously, because we went two and three this week. I guess, man, should I do a game we didn't do now? I guess I got it. I have to shame Dallas, right? Or just Dak, maybe. I have to shame the Cowboys. This is embarrassing. Divisions up for, you know, you could steal this division. it's really there to take. You guys should easily be, you're three and five. You should easily be four and four, five and three. And I know that was a big win against the Eagles, but losing that game against Tampa, losing that game against Green Bay, and now losing this game against Arizona, it's just, shame on the Cowboys organization, Jerry. Like, he's mortgaged their future

37:58 on all these draft picks. Have these guys worked out for them? Has this defense been any better when you're giving up three touchdowns and 200 yards to Minshew? I just, I gotta shame the Cowboys. Like, there's just, Of all the teams that have expectations coming in, I bet them to win the division. They've totally been a huge disappointment in a division that's wide open. They're the only team that has a healthy, consistent quarterback, and they're wasting it.

38:19 Dak's putting up numbers, but overall, he's been inconsistent. This has been a really disappointing year for the Cowboys.

38:24 Shame, shame, shame. Kevin O'Connell and the Minnesota Vikings.

38:29 I said shame, shame, shame, shame, shame.

38:33 Shame, shame, shame on you.

38:36 He just did nothing in the play calling and in the game management to give his defense the win. Based on that alone, the Vikings defense was phenomenal. They should have won that game. It shouldn't have been the defense having to stop the Lions rushing game on two straight series at the end of a brutal physical game because you went for it when you could have scored a touchdown when you're down 12-7 and when you could have kicked a field goal when you're down 12-7 and didn't go for it on fourth and four with three minutes left when you didn't know if you were going to get the ball back. Just terrible, terrible game management from Kevin O'Connell. They had that game. They had that game.

39:28 Let's talk about quickly, Sunday Night Football. I might not even watch it. I might have to watch something else.

39:38 Yeah, I would say if you've got someone you love or you're with your significant other, watch one of their favorite shows. Be like, hey, babe, there's a great game on tonight. I'm going to be a gentleman. We can watch whatever you want to do.

39:50 That's how much I love you.

39:52 Yeah, exactly. Because this, yeah, like Chad's saying, this is, I'm going to watch every second of it. Even if it wasn't the Eagles, I'd still watch every second of it. I just love football. But the general public, the masses, I get it. I'd skip it. But yeah, I honestly can't wait for this game. It's, to me, two very desperate teams that either team loses game, their season's basically over.

40:11 So yeah, for me, my pick is, It didn't work last week. My Eagles first half, Fadum second half. Obviously second half back came through, but Eagles lost the first half to Dallas somehow. Even though they scored two touchdowns, they still didn't cover the first half. So back to the well again, taking Eagles first half, Fadum second half.

40:29 Hopefully I go 2-0.

40:31 Before we get to our early leans for week nine, final thoughts for Monday Night Football, Chicago and Seattle. The Lions at three. It was a three and a half. Huge trade for the Bears, Jeffrey Simmons. Hard to know how much of an impact he can have on the Monday Night Football game. But Caleb is dealing. Everyone's understanding that he is playing at an elite, elite level right now.

40:54 Great weapons in Roma Dunzey, in Luther Burden. Colston Loveland is supposed to play. Like, this offense is peak. Will it meet its match with the Seattle Seahawks? I feel like this game is perfectly lined. I see no advantage. I have not made a bet on this game.

41:14 Fortunately for you, just like all the other plus three and a half, I've taken the plus three and a half on the Bears. So sorry, Chad, I have to go 0 for 4 this week. But that's my position. And I love the Bears. They're like, we're going to ease Jeffrey Simmons in. He is so by far their best player defensively. I think they see him on the field.

41:30 He makes one or two plays. They go, okay, let the beast play. There's no point of easing this man in where you desperately need him in this exact matchup. So I think that's just all coach talk.

41:40 He is also– Legitimately the best defensive lineman in football. So he knows how to play the game. Early leans for next week. God, there are some just terrible, terrible, underperforming, disappointing teams that are playing each other next week. The Bengals are three and a half point road favorites on the road at Atlanta.

42:07 Grab Atlanta.

42:08 Yeah, that immediately stuck out to me that you want to take Atlanta plus three and a half right there. Broncos are two and a half point favorites on the road at our favorite team, the Carolina Panthers, who tried their hearts out to backdoor us on Thursday.

42:31 It's the definition of the fishies line of the week.

42:33 Yeah.

42:35 If you want to be on Denver's side, I'd take the two and a half now. I would be shocked if that line drops. There's just going to be so much public money coming on Denver right here. So I'll be patient, Carolina. I hope I don't miss the best number. Hopefully it goes up. But the books know exactly what they're doing hanging two and a half on that one.

42:51 My God, are people hammering Denver right now. But we'll definitely be on Carolina this upcoming week.

42:57 What do you think of the Lions on the road? I'm just checking to see if there's any moves yet. At our favorite team, the Miami Dolphins, seven-point favorites. By the way, this thing, oh, good Lord, this thing has already moved from eight and a half to eight to seven and a half to seven, basically since we've been on this show.

43:24 And I wish I could say I'm the cool guy and that's all me, but sadly he's not. I do love Miami, obviously. I'm going to take a position on them, but. Chad just said I'd miss the best of the number because I'm doing a live podcast with Chad. Smart business decision by me.

43:39 Costing you money every second of the day.

43:42 Truly, though. I'll be on Miami, but you guys just heard my whole spiel. I'm not going to do it again. They're undervalued by you, the general public, the number one tease team. Everyone's going to be all over the lines. Why wouldn't they? They just covered for them. Be patient on that line. Hopefully, It goes back up. I mean, it happened this week. They got down to six and a half. The pros made a little move on it where they acted like they're betting the Patriots. They gave us the seven, seven and a half. Huge money came in once again in Miami before kickoff on the seven, seven and a half. And you saw a kick. It was down to six and a half. So I don't know what the pros will do at this time, but

44:17 Chad just told you they've already came in and hit it down. So if you can still get seven and a half, I would grab it on Miami at the seven or six and a half. There's no point. You've already missed the best of the number.

44:25 Who am I missing?

44:28 I mean, there's so many gross games we can talk about. Like, I'm not betting it because I'm so mad at them after today. But the Colts are plus six, plus five and a half at home against Dallas Cowboys. That jumps out to me. The Saints, after a bye week, are minus two and a half at home against Cleveland. Don't know what to do with it because I know how much the public's going to hate Cleveland here. But I want to grab that number now just in case it goes up three. And then I could talk Cleveland side.

44:53 But two and a half, I'd rather be on the Saints. Three, three and a half. Then I will start talking Cleveland. That just jumped out right away. Commanders who are playing, obviously, tonight, they're five-and-a-half point dogs against the Rams. I know for a fact my model has at least seven, seven-and-a-half. I continue to say it. This week I even said it.

45:13 The Rams, to me, are being undervalued against the Chargers. And I knew some really smart groups are betting heavy into the Chargers, and they held that number at six-and-a-half all week with the books. They blew out the Chargers double digits, and they did not look good to start the game. So that's another one where I'm interested what the public will do with that one. Do they trust the Rams? I sure do, especially at this number. I'll take it as long as it's under six. Big number jumps out to me right away. Eight and a half Raiders at the 49ers after a bye week. We've talked with Kirk Cousins. I don't want to be bet on, but if it's a big number like this, Kirk always gets the back door for us. So these– These books

45:52 know that a sucker like me exists. I'm going to take that 8.5. It's just a big, big number on a team that we'll see. If Mike Evans is back, if Debo is back, if they get all these guys back, all right, me and Chad can not talk about it or buy off our positions or not play it on Sunday. But right now, with the information I have at hand, I don't know if they're going to play. That's a huge number to try to cover for the 49ers. And one more really bizarre line to me, Patriots minus 2.5 at home against Green Bay. What is that? What is that line? I can't believe it's below three. So I know the Patriots have a ton of injuries, but I will grab that number. The Green Bay hype feels like it's peaking right now a little bit. Feels like it's

46:33 peaking a little bit right now. They've obviously looked good offensively. I know they're coming off extended rest here, but that's too much respect for them going to New England, catching under three points.

46:43 Two other games that I'm going to want us to look at and then spend a lot of time talking about on Tuesday are Buccaneers plus six and a half at the Bears. Bears will be on a short week on Sunday night football. The Buffalo Bills going to Minnesota as three-point road favorites.

47:08 My feeling right now, let me just look at the juice here.

47:12 Yeah, this thing, it could be It could be going to two and a half very soon. So I'm inclined to take the Vikings right now at plus three.

47:27 Shocked by that. I thought all the money would just be all bills. So I agree with you. I'd take the three now, but I obviously want to wake at the three and a half. I just, Kyler's so bad. I want the hook. I need the hook. It's so much better to have the hook. And like we said today, KOC, if you didn't blunder that game, Potentially could have won.

47:43 Definitely should have covered. So I'm trying not to overreact too much. This Vikings team's defense is so good.

47:48 So good.

47:49 Exact type of defense that can give real problems to the type of Josh Allen quarterback. The playing style he plays, right? If you can blitz, he can't scramble. That doesn't work against a blitzing defense like that. So, yeah, early line, that's interesting. The public and the pros betting the Vikings and betting that down at two.

48:04 And a half.

48:05 Simon and I will return on Tuesday with our NFL weekdays. 10 betting preview. This has been Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen to us on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel, download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.

48:29 Until Tuesday, love you.

48:32 Super Bowl dreams that glowed in the summer sunshine flicker and fade in the autumn shadows. and hopes that were high in the heat of September can wilt and die in the chill of November. November can be cold and gray. November can be surly, with bitter rain upon the world and winter coming early. Do you fear the force of the wind, the slash of the rain? Go face them and fight them. Be savage again. The palms of your hands will thicken, the skin of your cheek will tan.

49:16 You'll grow ragged and weary and wet, but you must do the best you can