THE HERD – HOUR 3 – Bo Nix & Broncos Are Back

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Been a fun week here in Los Angeles. Hitting the town. Great, great week. Mark Schlereth, Denver and Kansas City are playing this weekend. So whenever Denver's in a big one, we bring on Mark Schlereth. Their Broncos are hard to figure out. Always play from behind, yet win most of the time. It's not the way it's supposed to work. So last night, I don't think those are two great teams. Green Bay beats Carolina. Green Bay's the better team. But I thought last night, when you watched on Thursday Night Football... What you watched was Jordan Love proving not only what he is, but that's what a star NFL quarterback looks like. Green Bay is 29th ranked O-line. You have to go back to the 1946 Baltimore Colts to find a run game

in the league this bad. Lead the NFL in penalties and drops. Both their star receiver left the field in an ambulance and fumbled twice. And Oh, by the way, with the Packers, there's no such thing as a chip shot, even short field goals and PA teas are a real struggle. And yet Jordan love behind this whole line with no run game, number one in the league in passing yards, passing touchdowns, big pass throws and big time throws. How's that possible? his ability to be the lighthouse. There's a storm around him. He's standing tall. He's the light because the green Bay has got a million problems and he's not phased by any of them. I mean, they, their run game is so bad last night. First team league history to have a winning record and to rush for

fewer than 500 yards through eight games. So Jordan love is the exception to my rule. Please have him throw over 40 times a game. every other quarterback, I don't want you to have more than 34 throws. The numbers tell you if you throw more than 40 times, it's a disaster except Jordan love. Here's the other thing I love when Aaron Rogers teammates let him down. Oh, you knew it. The body language, snarky, the moods, this guy's entire franchise has let him down. Total pro not burdened with it. No big deal.

Aaron wore.

You'd never know. So no, no quarterback in the league this year has dealt with more negativity and crap than he has most penalties, most drops. You know, the knock is the coach, you know, they, they're not great in fourth quarter situations. It's it's in, by the way, the bears are adding Jeffrey Simmons and they're just adding more on Jordan loves plate. So it's almost inconceivable. He has the shortest. This is weird. He has the shortest time to throw. That's how bad the O-line is. He has the shortest time to throw in the league, yet leads the NFL in explosive plays. That doesn't make, that'd be like leading the NFL in fumbles and being 12 and 0.

That doesn't make any sense. So I just think he is, he is taking an extreme and creating a pretty good movie. I don't think the Packers are great. I don't think they can be great. They do too many things historically that make you lose games, but he is the only quarterback in the league. Now, please throw over 40 times.

He has got nothing to work with here. And here's Matt Lafleur after a semi-impressive win over Carolina.

I know who he is and I know he'll, he'll learn from that. But I thought outside of that play, I can't say enough great things about him because he's carrying the burden of everything right now. Just, you know, just dealing the ball and throwing a lot of great passes.

So yesterday the Packers rival, the Chicago bears went all in by getting not only the best defensive tackle in the sport, Just to give you a sense of how good Jeffrey Simmons is, last three years, he's the best defensive tackle against the run, and he has the most sacks. Micah Parsons is good on third and long. That's when he's good. Jeffrey is your ace, your middle reliever, your setup guy, and your closer. He does everything well. Now, there are critics that say he's 29, that's old for a guy in the trenches, and you're giving up first-round picks. Okay, so first of all, he's not just the best interior D lineman against the pass and the run. Six-time captain, great in the locker room. Okay, people... It's like collecting coins.

One out of a thousand may be worth something. Mostly they're just, you know, nickels and dimes and coins collecting first round picks, especially mid do late first round picks. You got to get over it. I'll give you an example. The classic late first round pick is Josh Simmons of Kansas city. Whatever the reasons he can't get on the field.

Or it's Keon Coleman, the receiver for Buffalo, who was actually the top pick in the second round. It's a guy that's really talented, but really immature. So historically, the way general managers look at late first round picks, they'd like to trade them because what they are is their first round talents with red flags, immaturity issues, or their first round picks that have a bust potential. Lance Erlein was talking about it this morning. the bears currently would have the 28th pick in the draft. And he went and showed everybody the last four years of 28 picks in the draft and outside of Caleb Lomu for new England, who should be a starting tackle. It's a bunch of guys.

You don't know who they are.

Right?

So late first round picks, the bears gave up two of them. And it's, we've said this GMs would rather trade all of those away and get pick second round pick. Those are, it's a bad place to be. You have to overpay. And they're usually first round talent with a red flag or an injury history or something. Here's the other thing. The bears need somebody who's good. Now they need somebody who can deliver two sacks Monday night against the Seahawks. Somebody who will be double teamed Monday night against the Seahawks. And this guy's been in an NFL weight room for eight years, but because he played at Mississippi state and then the Titans, you just don't pay attention to him. He is Aaron Donald dominating, but the

games are, I mean, I couldn't even tell you the last time the Titans had a national TV game. I think it was two or three years ago. So the other thing is about Jeffrey Simmons. He's one of these rare players. Calvin Johnson was like this, the receiver for Detroit. He works with any coordinator, every coordinator and head coach they've had in Tennessee. He's their best player. In fact, in 2020, they didn't even have a defensive coordinator. He was great that year too. He's coordinator proof. Do you know how few players in the NFL are coordinator and head coach proof as like 12. I mean, even Caleb Williams, as good as he is, limitations with Matty Ramflus. So, and again, this is the key. The last three years,

he's the number one run stopper, like as a defensive tackle. In the last two years, he has the most sacks. So a lot of these edge rush guys like Micah Parsons get all this love and flavor, but Micah's good on third and long. Micah can't defend the run. They tried him at linebacker. It didn't work there. He wasn't, he was too reactionary. He was too slow. Didn't see the play develop. Simmons is everything you want. Plus he's a team captain guy. But I also think there's a truth about the NFL and about three teams at any one time in the NFL have the Powerball ticket. Here's the Powerball ticket. superstar young offensive coach and superstar athlete at quarterback with a couple of weapons the bears have

that ben johnson may be right now as good as any coach in the league offensively caleb is certainly the most talented young quarterback in the league i don't consider josh allen a kid anymore and they've drafted well enough offensively i mean they've hit on almost every offensive draft pick they've hit on so let's just go spend money on the best defensive player in the league I have no problem with it. That, that is the power ball ticket that about three teams have in the league at any given time, superstar young offensive coach, superstar quarterback, and enough weapons where you don't have to buy them. You've got them in house. That's when you go, that's when you go buy, you know, I don't care if it's

a miles Garrett, it's an Aaron Donald, it's a Jeffrey Simmons that it because super bowl windows close very quickly in this league. And it's the only professional sport in the world. There is a hundred percent injury rate. Everybody gets hurt. Caleb Williams never gets hurt. And then he got hurt. Everybody gets hurt. So these Superbowl windows, the variables change weekly. When you get that Willy Wonka ticket, that Powerball ticket, brilliant coach, rookie contract, superstar quarterback, and enough weapons, you don't have to buy them. You do this deal. By the way, Quentin Nelson, who just faced Jeffrey Simmons, best guard in the league couple weeks ago is facing him again on monday night as the bears

face the seahawks.

He's an amazing football player and competitor um and uh yeah i was like man can't get away from this guy um so yeah it'll be another battle uh against him this week.

Mark slareth denver kansas city joins us headline news, Jason's picks before the end of the show on a Friday.

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Uh nobody at fox sports cares more about interior o and d line play than mark slareth and he's damn proud of it uh fox sports analyst mark slareth three times super bowl champ multiple time pro bowlers joining us live Yeah, you've done. You were joking with me off air. You know, the NFC and AFC South very well.

You're damn right.

I'm the guy they send to those divisions when they need when they need things broken down.

So is there a comp in your career of Jeffrey Simmons? I mean, was there a player that was basically and Mark, you were a pro bowler. You knew you needed help on most snaps.

Yeah.

I mean, guys like guys, like Warren Sapp, guys like John Randall. Although you look at, you look at Jeffrey Simmons, man, he is so big, he is so thick and powerful. And then he's got unbelievable movement skills. So he can beat you with power. He can beat you with quickness. He can beat you with speed and just relentless effort.

And so when I saw this trade go down, you know, people saying, Oh, they gave up too much to first rounders.

I've talked to multiple GMs calling over the years.

And most guys will tell you in this business, there's about 16 to 17 really, truly graded first.

Rounders in any draft.

Yep.

And then after about 17, you're into the second round, even though you're still picking in the first round. And it was funny because I went through a couple of weeks ago. Cause we were talking about the Jalen waddle trade here in Denver. And so I went through the 30th overall pick.

Cause you've got to think if you're Chicago, man, we're going to.

Give away 28, 29, 30, somewhere in there.

That's the picks we're giving away. Right?

So I went through the 30th overall pick over the last 10 years. There was two guys that are really good players. TJ Watt, phenomenal player, right?

At the 30th.

Overall pick and George Karloftis for the Kansas City Chiefs, really good player. The rest, the other eight guys, I mean, I'm on a team, I'm covering a team every week.

I couldn't tell you who those eight guys were. You can't, you don't know who they are.

And so ultimately I look at this and say, hey, you're giving away two guys that are maybe also rands. You might get a good player in there, but the bottom line, you're giving away two guys for a difference maker on the defensive side of the ball.

This is a signal to me.

The Chicago bears are saying it is championship or bust. We have a contract, our rookie quarterback. That's still on a rookie contract. And by the way, you watch Caleb Williams play the last couple of games. Are there the best two games I've seen this kid play? He's always dynamic. He's always one of the best. I mean, off schedule playmakers in the world. But my big question mark was him is can you do the boring stuff?

Can you stay on schedule?

Can you play within the structure of the offense? And the last couple of weeks, it's been the best he has played being in structure by far. So I look at this move like, man, this is a super bowl or bus type of move. We got to win this division. Everybody's over 500 in this division. Here's the first step to doing that.

So I also loved, and again, your, your knowledge of guard play surpasses anybody at Fox, but Let's talk Quentin Nelson, who's kind of a no-nonsense bully. He'll move over to a different guard spot. I thought, you know what, I'll tell you, the signal that it sent to me was, listen, we got a formula here with Darnold. If our run game is plus, doesn't have to be the best in the league, but if it's plus, we can win a Super Bowl with his defense. Well, Charbonnet and Price... maybe combined aren't Kenneth Walker, but if we have gray Zabel and Quentin Nelson, we have the best guard tandem. So I thought it was John Snyder saying we have a formula.

Like let's, we may not get it at running back, but let's give, let's give Sam play action at guard. That that's, that's my take your thoughts.

Speaker 2.: Yeah.

You know what? I'm a hundred percent on board with you.

Hey, what's going to happen is gray's Abel's going to move over to right guard and Quinn Nelson is going to come in and play what he's familiar with, what he's been playing for the last, whatever, eight years left guard.

But when this kid came out in the draft, I was in my study studying.

Him and it was like, put a tie on the doorknob and tell your wife not to come in here. I'm watching freaking Quentin Nelson film. This guy was crushing, crushing people. And I went back and looked at him this year, just after the trade, I go, let me go look at how.

Quentin Nelson is playing. Let me go really study him.

I'm telling you what, when it comes to coming off the ball, creating a new line of scrimmage, Colin, he is still as good as there is in this league, just snapping his hips through coming off the ball, driving defensive lineman off the ball, creating separation, creating movement on the line of scrimmage. And then when it comes to pulling on powers and on counters and He is trying not only to block you, he's trying to hurt you.

He's trying to run you over and put you on your back. He's a physical presence. He's a damn good player. And then all of a sudden you move him into the left guard position. Gray's able gets comfortable playing right guard. And I will tell you, with Seattle, the biggest weakness on their line has been.

Their right guard. They were in a two guard rotation earlier this year. This is a big.

Time move for the Seattle Seahawks. I think it's, I think it was as good a move as you could make it by John Schneider, their GM.

So you've got one of the marquee games of the weekend, Kansas city and Denver. So Kenneth Walker forced Denver into 14 missed tackles. And a lot of that, I push off to none of the starters playing the preseason tackling in the league stinks for about three weeks. You know what I mean? It just is what old line play and tackling is not good in September because we don't want any of our best players, the veterans to do that.

So I think it's a much different looking game. but it is remarkable. Like last week, Bo Nick's got some chunk plays, but it is, it is remarkable that Denver's doing something that's not possible in the league. We're going to play behind into the fourth quarter every week. And we're going to win 90% of these games. I would say it's unsustainable. You watch every Denver snap. So is Bo better today than a month ago?

Speaker 2.: Yeah.

Last week was the best game he has played. It's the first time I've seen him climb the pocket. It's the first time I've seen him throw a receiver open. He had a seam, a seam throw where they stayed in a single high look to Jalen waddle linebacker inside driving, like driving with the receiver and he threw him.

On the back shoulder.

And it was, I mean, it was as good a throw as I seen Bo make at any time. And that was a great signal him climbing the pocket. You know, it was the second drive of the game. He climbed the pocket and took a sack. And I wrote down on my notes, Colin, hallelujah. Cause he finally climbed up in the pocket. And then later in the game, you saw it. He climbed the pocket, bam, took off in a man to man situation and went 62.

Yards for a touchdown.

So I think that got him out of that psyche of, man, I don't know if my ankle can handle it. I'm a little bit nervous about it. I don't want to drive up in the pocket. I don't want somebody to fall on my legs. So I think he took strides last week. We'll see if he can continue to improve because up until that point. Bo Nix was, was horrible.

And this defense was what was keeping them in football games. Go back to that first weekend matchup, that Monday night matchup between Kansas city. Not only did they miss a ton of tackles in that game, but to your point about preseason, they didn't play a whole lot in the preseason guys were not only getting blasted, but they were staying blocked. And what you see with Denver now is they're not staying blocked. If you block them, you block them for a thousand one. Now they're going to disengage and get off those blocks. They did not do that.

in Kansas city and Kansas city ran rough shot through them.

The big question to me, and this is crazy. Cause I was talking about this on the stink of truth podcast.

I was like, at what point have I ever said, Hey man, you got to stop Kenneth Walker and put the game in my homes, his hands, see if my homes can beat you. Like I'm living in bizarro world. I've never said that in a hundred years, he's 14 and two. in his, in his career against the Denver Broncos. And I'm sitting here going, Hey man, we got to shut down Walker because my homes ain't going to beat us.

I mean, that's crazy. It's crazy.

No, but I, you know, it's, it's, it's real because they've had kind of an immature injured. Listen, we all know this. You pay the quarterback, Josh Allen money, and you have holes. Now the holes for Buffalo are on defense. The holes for Kansas city are on offense. I will say this though. you've watched this league top to bottom Seattle, Chicago, Monday. I, I, I think the Rams are good. I don't think they're special.

I don't think you can win a super bowl with those special teams. I don't, I think it will cost you at some point. I feel like bear Seahawks. They look different. Seattle looks different. If you turn the sound down defensively bears look different offensively. I went and saw him in person last week. They're better in person. Do you feel that way? If I said to you, Bears Seahawks 1-2, where are you like on the Niners as they fall apart a month before Thanksgiving physically?

Yeah.

Well, they're going to get all their receivers back, right? Debo's coming back. Mike Evans will come back. Stribling, the rookie is going to come back. I still think they're a really good football team without question. But again, the injury issues are a big deal. They went out and got to Forrest Buckner. That's a nice rotation. If they get, you know, if they get Bosa back, I think they'll be okay. I think that's a really good football team.

I think Seattle is just built different on the defensive side of the ball.

Colin, they are special.

They have multi guys who can play multiple three, four positions. So they become really hard to ID when you've got E-man worry playing. You know, nickel playing safety, playing rush defensive end, playing linebacker. You've got Witherspoon doing the same thing. When Drake Thomas is in there, he's been hurt the last couple of weeks, but he'll play nickel. He'll play inside linebacker. He'll play rush defensive end. So they've got all these guys that makes it really hard to ID.

and their front seven, you look at how they shut down the only team that shut down Kenneth Walker. And they did it with playing a shell coverage with their front seven. They were just like, Hey, we're better than you. And we know it's like global gym over there.

And when they're at home.

And they've got that noise, they are really, really tough. So I think they're a great team. I love what Chicago did with Jeffrey Simmons. We've talked about that. Well, people don't really realize about Ben Johnson. is he is as good as there is in, in devising a run game plan, right? With Swift, when they get Manunga, excuse me, when they get Manunga back. And, and the first thing when Ben Johnson took over there, I had talked to him, I was on the phone with him. This is, you know, his first year there. He goes, wait till you see what we put together up front. So Ben Johnson is one of those dudes that everybody looks at the, like the passing game and everybody looks at all the stuff, you know, the bells and the whistles, but it's really

based on, we're going to cram it down your throat in the run game. We're going to set up our play action app off of that stuff. And we're going to get you in those situations. So they are exceptional when it comes to running the ball and exceptional.

What they play off of that. And I think as a.

Play caller, I go back to a couple of weeks ago, I think against Atlanta, when, when Caleb Williams started 12 for 12 and it was, Hey, bootkeep right off the bat, you know, get a layered concept with a flat and a little over route, bam, hit the over, man.

Okay.

Now we're rolling now. Three-step drop.

Let's get it. Let's do get some check downs in there. Let's get this thing moving. The quick game, the quick game. And all of a sudden you watch Caleb Williams and we'll roll out front side, like on a waggle and dump one off into the flat and And now we're 12 for 12 and now they're unstoppable, right?

Now they're just rolling. Now we're rolling.

And that's who the Chicago bears are. But I don't think Ben Johnson gets the credit he does for being a unbelievable run game designer. And that goes back to his time in Detroit with Dan Campbell. Yeah.

Can't wait. Mark is always into, when I talk interior O-line D-line plane, there's only one guy to call it Fox. It's Mark Slareth. Good seeing you, buddy.

You too, bud.

J Mac with the news.

No, no, no, no. Turn on the news. This is the Herdline News.

Got a fun stat for you, Colin.

How many sacks for Aaron Donald through five games for the Rams so far?

Any guesses?

Half a one?

Doesn't have a sack. I don't want to say he's been a non-factor, but he hasn't lived up to expectations. Now he has not played yet with Miles Garrett, obviously, which would matter. Donald was asked about this yesterday, and I think you're going to like this answer.

I'm here to just, you know, play the game. When the players present themselves, take advantage of it, trying to get my plays. But my main focus is trying to find ways to help this team to win.

You know, that's the goal.

You know, I ain't come back to try to, you know, I earned no individual accolades or anything.

I did that.

Accomplished that. Don't excite me. The only thing that excites me is winning.

Yeah, I mean, I think we all acknowledge, could he be 75% to 80% of what he was? I don't know if the film says he is. Where is he? PFF, does he rank in the top 10?

No, he has not been amazing.

But again, it's early, and he has a great matchup this week against a rookie center for the Chargers who has struggled. Second round pick out of Florida. Again, no Miles Garrett, so I can't totally judge him. I don't know what to make of this game. I'm going to guess the Rams won a close one. But I do think the Chargers come out with their best effort.

They better. Or McDaniel's probably gone.

You can't fall to 0-7, can you, if you're the Chargers?

Well, I mean, they're going to lose the game. It's a bad matchup for them. To me, you're not going to... I mean, also, you got, I worry about this with the Chargers. So Harbaugh, they didn't move anybody at the trade deadline yet because I think they wanted to play this game at SoFi. Let's go. Let's play the Rams.

You lose this game. Then I think you start accumulating draft picks. This is a, if they play well, I think there's a, the Colts decided with the GM gone, we're moving picks. I think this weekend, the Chargers, one of those teams they lose, they'll become the Colts, and Mack and Derwin James will be on the market.

I don't want to write off the season. It's been a major disappointment. When I go to Vegas in August every year, I buy futures for Super Bowl tickets, and I had Rams versus Chargers at SoFi, thinking they were legit.

Super Bowl teams.

That looks like an idiotic bet right now because the Chargers are so bad. That being said... Colin, in some ways, this is kind of just a gap year. Hey, guys, it didn't work out. We had a ton of injuries. Quarterback wasn't great. OC didn't fit. Let's just flush it and move on. Let's not overreact and make sweeping changes.

Right.

Would you agree?

Yeah.

Or do you think there needs to be major changes?

No, I think the OC didn't work. I would move on. And I also think for the 28 straight year, they have to address the offensive line. I mean, it's hard. You think the Niners have injuries. They're not to one unit every year.

And they're not falling apart. Niners are thriving. Anyways, let's move on.

Steelers, Browns.

We keep talking about this game because it's a big one. Obviously, there's a lot of trash talk in this game.

But how about this?

This is shrapnel coming from outside the organization. So people are wondering what's going on with DK Metcalf. I think you said he's no longer that guy. Well, Adam Thielen, surely you remember him, former Steelers Vikings receiver. said, Aaron likes to have guys who just line up and play football. DK's not that guy. He's not a guy you can just put out there at the X and it's third and five and go win.

Oh, that's right. It was five years ago.

That's kind of shots fired.

DK Metcalf has sat here on the couch and he's one of the most physically imposing dudes that's been in here.

Nice guy, but this is a great GM working a brand new GM in Pittsburgh. John Snyder moves off him, gets picks, replaces him with JSN, who's already on the roster. He goes, he's a one. And DK was getting a little noisy. DK was never a great route runner. This was GMing 101. The top GM in the league sees a new young GM. and worked him.

Yeah, this is a tough matchup for him this week against Denzel Ward, who is.

One of the top receivers. First year was okay. He is a regressing former star player, and you got work.

And just for the record, Thielen was with the Steelers last season, so he was in the locker room with DK, knows the skill set.

Well, it's a four straight season. Of a decrease in production. So, I mean, all the mismatches aren't on the O-line or D-line. Some are in the front office. Snyder works the kid.

All right, so final story. I wanted to leave some room for this one, Cowherd. NFL draft.

Obviously, people are talking quarterbacks and teams are bad. So, the Athletic has the Titans projected to hold the number one pick. And their writer put out a mock draft today. And this guy claims the Jets will trade up. to the first pick. The Titans will drop back and the Jets will take Drew mestemaker from oklahoma state hold on jets have three picks in the top 15 currently 7 11 and 12 this is nonsense but i'll let you go.

First well the jets would move up to take a quarterback that didn't start in high school That is very jet.

That is on brand for the jets.

It's a very good defensive line draft.

I mean, listen, I'm sure this guy's a nice individual. A linebacker at 10, sorry you don't do that in the NFL. No, Arvel Reese has been a fan. He's an edge rusher, man. That guy's an animal. Cole, not in that same breath. That being said, one quarterback in the top 10, Colin?

Where's Dante Moore? Where's Mensah from Miami?

Yeah, I mean, whenever they do these mock drafts.

It's to stir up the pot.

Well, we're going to have... The kid from Miami, CJ Carr, and Mastomaker are all going in the top 12.

Let's slow down on Mastomaker. Again, he's flashed. He wasn't a star last year. He was at some random school and transferred in with the coach. This isn't a guy with a lot of tape, so he's the shiny new object that people love. He had a nice game against Oregon. Again, you couldn't beat out anybody in high school.

So I told you I spent this weekend with a young man who played college football quarterback and went to camp with all these guys.

Yeah.

Mastermaker is a good player.

He's a good player.

Big arm.

He's got he's the process.

I need to see more, man. You can't give me 20 starts and say that's the guy.

The track.

What did Parcells say? 30 starts. Well, you need to be a certain age.

It holds true. The Parcells. In theory, he's right. Like he said, I don't want my quarterback to be a star. Quarterbacks didn't have NIL money. Caleb Williams is going to be a star. Like, sorry in college. Like, Arch Manning's a star. Does that make him undraftable?

So Jets 7-11-12, and they have the Colts pick. Colts are going to lose this weekend. We'll do that in headlines. There's no way the Jets are trading up. They've got the most draft capital in this draft. I see you smiling because I know your bears are on top now, but we coming. The Jets are on the come up, right?

I'm telling you that roster is good. We're not trading Garrett Wilson. He's not going anywhere.

Hands off.

Breeze Hall could be had at the right price. The defense looks really good. We just need a quarterback and a coach.

Not a big ask.

You got Ben Johnson. Why can't we get a Ben Johnson guy? One of his alkalites.

Come on.

That'd be great. You could have a quarterback who didn't start in high school and maybe a linebacker coach from, you know, the Titans. Everything's looking up.

Yeah.

Jay Mack with the news.

Well, that's the news. And thanks for stopping by.

The Herdline News. Be sure to catch live editions of The Herd weekdays at noon Eastern, 9 a.m. Pacific.

So, J-Mac, you've had a nice year, as always. I am looking forward. I didn't think it was a big slate of tradable, bettable games, but I thought it was fine. So we call it... We forgot the name of it.

It's so memorable.

My guys didn't send me the picks, by the way. I don't know his picks.

All right.

Tomorrow's headlines today. Who you got to start?

All right.

We'll start with the Dallas Cowboys playing the Arizona Cardinals in Dallas. Should be a good one, right? I mean, we talked a little bit about this matchup. Dallas at some point is going to get it together, right?

You would think.

Our Halloween theme headlines begin in Dallas. The headline for Cowboys Cardinals will be the Texas time of possession goes to pokes. I'm rolling with Dallas here. Colin, interestingly, Arizona has actually been better on the road. They have two wins at SoFi. They've gotten skunked at home badly. And then they showed well on the road.

And other matchups.

But this is an interesting stat. They've played the toughest schedule in the NFL to date. So if you're wondering like, oh, maybe they don't show up here. No, this is going to be a fight. But I'm betting that Dallas, which probably just saw Carolina have a defensive performance bad and fire their D.C. Boy, Christian Parker, you better get it together.

You need stops here against percent and company. And I will round this out with there's a word on the street for out of Vegas that Arizona is something of a public underdog here. Public seems to like Arizona, but the line's moving up. Arizona has covered, right? They beat the Rams. I like Dallas here to cover seven and win handily. I think Dallas is about to get hot, Colin.

All right. Tomorrow's headlines today. It's the Ravens. Lamar's supposed to be playing at Buffalo. Who you like?

Supposed to be playing. That's that's what they say. Now, Lamar's done better in this matchup in the regular season.

Head to head. The headline for Ravens.

Bills will be the bills have eyes. Ravens make one wrong turnover. We're doing scary movies, Colin. How about this stat? Rest edge of three or more days this season. Teams are 17 and three straight up. If you've got the three day rest edge, 13, five.

And two against the spread.

So Bill's coming off the buy. They should be fully healthy. The Ravens are actually pretty healthy, but I look at this Ravens defense. I got to ask you, Tyler Shuck had his way with them in the second half. Saints got the win. Really struggled.

Michael Penix up and down the field.

Up and down the field late.

Easy.

Dak Prescott, they hung 31 on this team. And Joe Burrow last week eviscerated Baltimore. So what's Josh Allen going to do to these guys? I don't know that Baltimore can get the stop.

Well, you and I don't understand this line. It doesn't make sense.

Maybe somebody thinks that Lamar has been kind of, I don't want to play.

I don't have that contract.

And he's going to come back at full strength and be superstar. Lamar Zay flowers has been excellent. Derek Henry has really missed Lamar. His numbers have cratered the last two weeks. So maybe it's a high scoring game first to 30 wins, but I will take the bills.

3127. over Lamar Jackson.

All right. The Titans traded their kind of spiritual sack leader, their team captain. Tomorrow's headlines today, it's the Titans at the Bengals. I sniff this game, but it's a big number.

It is.

And big favorites, 5-16-3 against the spread. A lot of big upsets. For the big favorites, will the Bengals fall victim at home? The headline for Titans-Bengals Sunday will be Bengal juice. It's Joe time. Give me Joe Burrow here. The Titans are going into a bye next week, Colin. And I just wonder what the mindset is after you trade Jeffrey Simmons.

You got to go on the road here.

This number has gone way up. Twelve and a half is a huge one. But some signs point to the Bengals really cresting here. Last week, in a divisional matchup, they went to Baltimore and won by over 20 points.

So I looked up, how have teams done divisional matchup on the road?

You win by 20.

That's a sign you're a good team. Those teams the next week cover 61% of the time.

There's some trends that are pointing to Bengals have Superbowl future value in the AFC.

Now, I don't know if you.

Fully believe that, but this offense really starting to look good. I don't think the Titans can keep up here.

You know, Kim.

Ward has had some backdoor attempts to Philadelphia, obviously. And there was the Baltimore game after Lamar went out, but. I think Burrow puts it on him here, and the Titans kind of just cruise control into bye week and.

Salah and company recalibrate. I'll go Bengals 40 to 17.

So we're about a week and a half to the trade deadline, but it's going to be fascinating to watch sort of the— The personality of the Colts this weekend, who trade two of their three best players. Tomorrow's headlines today, Colts at the Jaguars. And, you know, Jacksonville can be mistake prone, but when they start playing downhill, now it should be noted, they've been good historically at home against Indy in this spot.

They have, 100% agree. However, there's been, you know, divisional matchups, a lot of upsets this season.

This is divisional, despite the trades. Remember that, the headline, 49ers.

Jags Colts on Sunday will be the headless horseman Colts lost without centerpiece.

They are.

I think they're reeling here, losing Nelson, losing Buckner. Jonathan Taylor said he wants to say, you know, wonderful.

Hooray.

Now I will give a word of caution. There is a lot of rain in Florida for the Tampa game. for the Miami game and for this one in Jacksonville. So keep that on the radar. But Colin, something I noticed with the Colts, fifth road game in seven weeks.

Oh, wow.

Third road game in four weeks. Since they got back from that overseas trip, they beat Washington. Remember, Mariota got snuck out. They've been falling apart in the second half. Is this team just fatigued? Second half against Pittsburgh, nine points. Second half against Tennessee, seven. Second half against.

Minnesota, zero.

Good homework.

And I just wonder if the wear and tear, these road games, now you lose two stars, and they are stars in the trenches. Jacksonville is a physical defense. They're almost undervalued. I think Trevor Lawrence, again, we got the rest edge here. I can't find an edge for the Colts. Maybe in the slop, Jonathan Taylor goes for 150 and it's close. But I like Jacksonville here and a comfortable win.

Okay, this next game I thought a lot about because I've been on the Brownies this year a little bit. Finally, tomorrow's headlines today, the pesky first place rounds at the Steelers. Aaron's been pretty good at home. T.J.

Watt.

They play a little higher-end brand at home, but the Steelers are limited offensively.

This is a good one. It's a divisional matchup. I wanted to go Bears-Seahawks here, but that's Monday. I figure we'll talk about it a lot on Monday. So I went with Steelers-Browns. Is it a revenge spot for the Steelers at home? The headline for Browns Steelers will be a run for your lives. It's killer Browns from outer space.

Yes, I'm going with the upset. I'm going to go with Cleveland again, covering three and a half. And I think they went out right.

I think they have more dynamic players offensive.

I don't disagree. And you were on this in the offseason. I thought so. Todd monkey.

I thought he was a bit of a joke. Some of the stuff he was saying in the preseason, it's kind of sounded laughable. Watson was horrible. They're one of the most impressive teams so far.

The wide receivers. The biggest surprise in the league.

Yeah.

The wide receivers, Concepcion looks super good.

Boston's good.

Judkins.

Judkins, the star, Fano, the right tackle. Yeah, Fannin. He's been great.

The tight end.

From Bowling Green's been great.

So it was interesting. The Browns moved the ball well against Pittsburgh. Touchdowns on three straight drives for Deshaun Watson. It's like unheard of.

Obviously, everybody's seen the stat when you go overseas this season and return to it's not been good from, from Europe. Oh, and eight, not great against the spread, you know, so that's against the Steelers. But if you look back a couple more years, it's actually one of the better games of the weekend. It's a phenomenal game. I, again, you don't want to read too much into trends, but matchup wise, if you look at the X's and O's, this, this matchup is good for the Cleveland secondary. I don't know if that Steelers defense is that good. You know, Jalen Ramsey's had some dumb penalties, two.

Big surprises this year. Chargers stink. Browns are in first.

And giants, I think given the quarterback injuries there, there.

Are Jackson dart starts. We wouldn't be that surprised.

So if Cleveland wins this outright and Baltimore loses to fall to four and four, you know, bangles are going to win. You know, you got Cleveland as a legit playoff team at this point. I still don't think they're going to make.

It, but let me ask you top. I don't know why I'm forgetting this. Who are the big coaching hires this year? Jesse Minter was the hot defensive coordinator. Yeah, that has not been great. Munkin was not one. Robert Brady, although he wasn't a hot. candidate, he had the best quarterback. What was the other one? Stefanski in Atlanta. So I would say Atlanta so far, Stefanski, it's working with Pennix.

Yeah.

Joe Brady, I think it's working. Absolute. Munkin, surprisingly. It's working. I mean, we didn't know. It was kind of, he's older.

Kubiak has three wins with the Raiders. It looks like there's something there.

There's Yeah, I'm not going to make a judgment on the Raiders.

Sala, I don't think is working, but he doesn't have much to work with in Tennessee.

John Harbaugh is absolutely working. That's working. OK, so the hottest candidate was Harbaugh working. I thought the second best candidate was Stefanski.

Yeah, if you remove those Cooper Rush games, Atlanta is one of the stronger teams.

So again, usually, and I think Jesse Minter was seen as the third, the hot coordinator. Jury is still out. So the two top coordinator, or the two top coaching hires, by the way, a couple years ago, it was Mike Vrabel. And my point is, you generally know who's going to work. Sean Payton, like Ben Johnson was red hot candidate. D'Amico Ryans, he's mostly gotten to the playoffs.

He's been good.

Liam Cohen, I think we thought of was good, but we just didn't know much about him. It's good. Yeah. And we didn't know much about him. You know, we don't talk about Tampa. We gave Baker Mayfield a lot of the credit.

Yeah.

But Liam has been great for them.

Yeah.

All right. So there you go. We had thanks to Danny Parkins and Mark Slareth, who showed up. Have yourself a safe Halloween. I'll be on the. What are you guys giving out?

Full Snickers bars.

I will be on the doorstep. I'm going to give little pamphlets out.

THE HERD – HOUR 3 – Bo Nix & Broncos Are Back

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