Midterm Countdown ⏳ Tokenization Leaving U.S

0:00 Midterms could be affecting how the crypto markets lay up. And one other thing is happening, and that is tokenization. Is it on a countdown for maybe leaving the U.S.? Before we do that, I want to thank our sponsor. That's iTrust Capital, where you guys can get into your own crypto IRA, cryptocurrency stocks, gold and silver, all available over on iTrust Capital. One account, unlimited possibilities. This is one of the platforms they've been around for quite a while.

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0:46 I want to start with this. And that, of course, is where the market sensitivity is. And it is very sensitive right now as we look at where the stock market is holding. And this just dipped into the extreme fear this morning. So we've already seen a significant amount of fall off in the S & P 500. And also it has affecting crypto as well. When you look at that, we are now hitting 34. Last time we had pushed into that was around August. So this is a concern overall, but I think a lot of people are looking at what's going on in the midterms and trying to kind of come to an understanding that once this is over, maybe there's an upside to it or maybe things get a little crazy. And I think that's the question that we're trying to answer is where does

1:32 it go from here? One thing that is for sure is that we are seeing a continuation of the bleed. And that is $ 3. 4 trillion coming off of the AI stocks in October. You can kind of see the numbers here, guys. These are pretty amazing numbers. In one month, Intel down 43%, Corwi 37%, Nebius 36%, Sandisk 33%. You can see it. Dell, which had been flying, is now down 22%.

1:52 SK Hynix, 19.8%.

1:52 Point Bing and even Micron at 17.8% down in October. So definitely not a good month. for the AI trade. And how does this start to move from here? I think everybody is trying to understand. And there's one thing that starts to correlate to what's happening in this market, and it correlates to big tech. Well, if you look at the Senate race right now that's giving big tech the chills, it is this one right here with Sherrod Brown.

2:27 There's a few things I want to highlight in this article. It's a high-stakes gamble for Silicon Valley Titans that is making some of the tech world very nervous, and that's in reference to this, mainly because Sherard Brown, a victory, could undermine crypto's vaulted political operation and offer a new playbook, which could get very concerning around the issue with AI data centers. And I'll talk about that in a second because I think this may spin two ways, even if the Democrats win, both the House and the Senate. And then last up was this right here. This is definitely the most important race, at least in this current landscape, in terms of dictating the attitude towards tech and crypto for the next Congress. And then, of course, by Ron Hammond.

3:12 We're going to have him on tomorrow. He'll talk a little bit about that. And remember, this is because this was under the Senate Finance Committee. And this is kind of the, I won't say the do-boy for Senator Warren, but for the most part, yes, he has been the puppet of Senator Warren. And I think this will only continue.

3:30 So watching that race is a huge issue right now. As you look at the Senate race, 74%, highest it's been ever, of the Democrats taking the Senate and running a full blue wave across both the Senate and the House, which would put the Trump administration reeling in trying to deal with how the Senate and the House would go to market basically in D.C. around the things they're going to do to run Congress over the next several years.

4:02 So you've got that, and then you have the U.S.-Iran deal being dumped into the market. And that, of course, changed things up because US Iran deal and manufacturing data was beating expectations slightly up today. And the big one was really oil, and I'll show you that in a second, that started to do a pivot based on just hearing.

4:23 And again, this is maybe the 12th deal that we've seen. I want to go to a clip real quick. This is Mike McGlone, and he's talking about being very careful around a post-midterm rally. Take a look.

4:34 When everybody says the same thing for the same narrative, be careful. And that's the key thing I'm worried about is for this week right now, our macro Mondays is not as important. But next Monday's macro Monday is going to be very important. The bottom line is, will the S & P 500 be down from where we are now?

4:49 If it's down... That's the beginning of, upon me, potential biggest reset of a lifetime, just normal reversion. Now, we've pretty good significant peak in precious metals. They've just got support. We've got to support. We've had a significant peak in cryptos, Bitcoin. They've got to support levels. We all know the housing market's rolling over significantly, certainly with mortgage rates at a three-decade high. Energy looks like it's probably just peaked very significantly.

5:15 Natural gas is a great indication for that. So that's a deflationary force. The bottom line is if the stock market ends this week down, it's a go with. It's significant. If it goes up, I don't really know what to change or what to do. So maybe guide me a little.

5:30 All right. So some things you could look at, and I've got a couple more clips here that will show you. maybe the bullish potential signals to watch for, but also some of the things that are a bit more concerning, like what McGlone was talking about, oil and energy being one of them. Whether or not we've hit the peak, I think is still a question mark, but oil plunged another 7% down, 98 a barrel, Brent falls five. So all of this, especially around what's going on with the negotiation in Iran. I think still a lot of people are concerned that there might be something happening after the midterms of how the U.S. is going to deal with Iran.

6:04 So are we still in a potential where that could cause a major hit? If you look at oil over the long haul, this was the big dip right here that everybody is talking about. You would think that the market would have responded much more positively. The one thing that did respond was gold up 2%, also following right there with oil. And if you look at silver coming up 3%, these are the kind of things that McGlone was kind of getting at. Other things that kind of play into this, speaking of gold, there's Peter Schiff talking about it, and that is in reference to his thought that this is a manipulated oil market for the financial gain of insiders, especially around the advanced knowledge of some of these positions that the U.S. is posting around Iran.

6:49 Imagine if you're an oil trader. And you've got insight to that. This is like a money printer for you because we've seen nothing but whipsaw after whipsaw that has affected the oil market and, of course, that affecting the U.S. gas prices. Let me go to a tweet here because this is where it gets a little crazy. This is, of course, Tucker Carlson claiming that Netanyahu has somehow put some pressure on Trump to possibly put the United States within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. This is the kind of thing that I think starts to really get crazy. And if you read this, I think more of a rant. But the point is, is this rant got 60 million views right there, guys. So it is something that I just think when you look at

7:33 where the sensitivity of the markets are right now, you look at what is happening right now with the midterms and whether or not that does go to a blue sweep and what's happening in Iran, along with the macro pressure globally, things could get a little unusual. Now, the market's still saying, well, listen, if we get the midterms and we get the Democrats in, I think the market is pricing that in and maybe in a position where it's only going to go up from there. I'm concerned more around could something unusual happen that puts more pressure on the market? And I think McGlone was right in that last clip, is that next Monday, the end of this week's closing is going to be critical for the markets going forward. Speaking of that, you've got critical things

8:16 happening in Israel right now, and that is the fact that we've got a different potential party taking the lead again. And this has been one of those weird things. It's been swapping back and forth. You can kind of see there on the chart of it going back and forth between Ezenkot and Netanyahu. And I think the point behind this could be correlated, call me crazy, correlated to the midterms, finding out who wins, understanding how to deal with the United States, because obviously Israel is significantly tied to the U S in terms of strategy and potentially going forward on how the policy is going to be met with Israel.

8:53 So many things happening right now. Let's take a look at this. This of course is Trump coming out saying is going to be Mr. Veto. If the Democrats do take control of Congress. And that is the key thing. He says he'll block every damn bill passed until they give up and make a deal. He also agreed with Elon that the democratic sweep could leave the country. may be forever destroyed. These are the kind of things coming out of the White House right now. President Trump also promises to protect Elon if Democrats threaten Tesla and SpaceX.

9:24 So apparently they've got a pass right now. Speaking of that, there's further passes being handed out with the president making it clear he'd consider pardons for his staff. So this is already, it sounds to me like a White House administration that has conceded defeat. or at least understands that there's a high probability that this is going to occur.

9:46 And this does start to change things for sure, I think, going forward in the markets. And the real question is, are we going to go up or are we going to start to see some sideways action through the end of the year? I think if we get a Dem sweep and there's no funding business, then we may have an opportunity here for a market recovery. But those are the key terms right there, guys. Other things that concern me around a market recovery is what's happening around all these hacks. So you've got ZachXBT saying there was an EU entity. now suspected of losing $ 106 million from multiple centralized exchange accounts on November 1st, just this day. And you've got a variety of different hacks coming on, and

10:25 it's several of them. I'll just show you some of them. This was Brazil's top crypto exchange. This was Mercado. They confirmed a security breach. Then you had BTC Pay server. This one is a big one because BTC Pay, just so you understand, this is where merchants are operating. Think of this as the stripe for crypto, in essence, or one of. And it'd be like Coinbase Commerce or something where those wallets would become potential targets of hackers because these are the wallets of retailers who might be using Bitcoin or other payment processors out there for these kind of things. This is a big one because it does start to put a little bit of a thwart in retail adopting crypto as a payment source if these kind

11:09 of issues start to continue to happen. All right, so let's just jump over. And I want to go to this tweet because this is the point that I'm getting at. Because there are some signs here that the market could be nearing a bottom. There's equal weight there on the S & P. You've got yields and oil falling. How long is the question? You have some fund managers positioning near extreme risk off. And that's the key. And then you have crypto barely declining despite its biggest heist.

11:37 All right.

11:37 And I would agree with that one. Those are the ones that I do agree with. And then you have stocks near the bottom. We just looked at the list of October declines. I mean, these are significant in terms of the AI trade. And it's moving into a midterm cycle while all of that is happening. So the probabilities for an upside at least are lining up. I want to go to a clip here by Tom Lee that explains this.

12:01 You're not jumping up and down like sometimes you do, but you still think maybe 8,200 by the end of this year.

12:09 Yeah, I think you do.

12:10 OK, I do think markets are going to exit the year strong, but they have been struggling, you know, like underneath the surface.

12:18 It's been a real battle.

12:19 And I think everyone I speak to is nervous about one of many things, right? The war, AI spending, the debt markets, the Fed, inflation, midterms. And I think The markets held up really well in the face of all that. I think markets in some ways prefer gridlock because then you don't have too much policy creep. But I'm going to take the contrarian view that House Democrats will support AI post-midterms because it does bring money to their communities.

12:51 So I think it's sort of an important voting issue today. But I think at the end of the day, it's good for jobs and it's good for the economy.

12:59 All right. So a couple of things that he hit on there is, yes, there's a lot of macro headwinds. You do have some interesting timing, though, that is lining up with midterms. And I think that's been almost architected by the way markets play out. And then you have the AI trade, which could be a big deal. And I think that still has a play. going forward. And I think he's right. I think the Dems win. There's going to be a little bit of an about face on it. Maybe not because it's good for the communities, but I believe corruption wins, unfortunately. You look at this right here. Bitcoin's last three cycle bottoms came shortly after midterm elections. You had the 2014 cycle bottom 71 days later, 39 days later in 18, and then in 22, 13 days.

13:41 So That could be a signal as well if you consider the potential here. And that's not all. Look at this. S & P 500 returns in November. This is following the midterm elections. The 21 out of 21 hits, guys, were positive. That's a pretty insane record. Now, granted, you could say, well, we're in for one that could go the other way now just because of the odds alone.

14:10 But a 21 for 21 of positive S & P 500 returns, pretty significant. Look at these numbers, though. I mean, some of these were crazy. 1998 up 24%. Unbelievable. 15% in 22. 2018, 8. You can go all the way back even into the 80s at 25% in 1982, which was during one of the biggest inflationary periods and interest rate hikes that were happening to American people ever in the history of commerce. Other points I want to hit on right here is what happened with Binance, because this is the update right now. Binance users holding any of these 10 tokens can independently verify their balances on Binance and are backed a minimum of one to one. They are using zero knowledge to basically do this. The point is,

14:56 is that CZ is not concerned at all. In fact, he tweeted this 12 hours after the withdrawals resumed only 2.1 percent net outflow. So people are feeling as though they are safe. 98% choose to stay. Speaking of where the market could be going, here's Matt Hogan. He talks about his strategy on how we could actually come back. Take a look.

15:19 And again, the ability for Binance to make users whole is another sign that this industry is maturing. I'd also add that I think a lot of the pullback today was not, in fact, driven by this hack exclusively, but also by the broader risk-off appetite. And in fact, I think in a week, you'll see prices have moved beyond this and recovered from this. At least historically, hacks haven't had a huge impact on the long-term trajectory of prices.

15:43 I expect that to be true here as well.

15:45 All right, so a couple of things there. I think price does get impacted. That hack did impact Bitcoin. In fact, it pulled it down under 80K. So I disagree with Matt with that. Now, does this mean that that was a good pullback based on the impact of a hack? Sure, I would agree with that, is that it could have been a lot worse. It wasn't. And crypto was very resilient in general. I think the key here is going to be how the market plays into macro scenarios, obviously the midterms. I'm still concerned about what's going on in the Middle East and with energy prices. All of those correlated coming into the end of this year is the key factor. I think that has more bearing on if we're bullish or not after the midterms than anything, probably

16:27 not so much the hack. Speaking of being bullish, you've got to consider where RWAs are going to be and just tokenized securities in general. You've got 50 major U.S. companies now opposing to have their stocks tokenized on the OKEx and ISIS planned exchange. And there's major names in here, guys. You just look at it. IBM, Dell, Nike, Intel, Nvidia, Oracle, Costco, Verizon.

16:52 The list goes on. 50 of them, including Microsoft, JP Morgan. And I think the concern right now I have is if we continue to see this pushback from major companies, What happens if we start to see a contagion effect of nobody wanting this in the U.S. and it pushes tokenized stocks offshore? That's the concern that I think everybody is worried about. All right, just so you guys know, the OKEx Ice deal, it had a 30-day notice period.

17:23 So it was filed on October 3rd. That's going to push it in here to the beginning of November. This could also get a 30-day exemption. So this could push it all the way up to November 22nd. if the SEC sees this as a potential problem and changes maybe the date. And I think this is more something to watch than almost anything right now in the market, especially around tokenized treasuries. So keep a very close eye on how that's going to play out. Now, these are the companies that are actually at least not opposing, but they haven't just said, hey, yeah, we want to. But the point is they have not objected or at least not yet.

18:01 And you've got Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Netflix, Palantir, a handful of others, Coinbase, Obvious, Circle, Robinhood. And I think these are companies out there that understand how this could benefit their business. But more importantly, maybe it sets the rest of these companies up to maybe change their mind. Now, all of this is pending on two things. One, how does the performance of tokenized treasuries work? in terms of actually getting this done. If OKXI actually goes out and succeeds with this, that will be a major bellwether. And I think the other factor is just whether or not the market itself starts to adjust and we see an upward trend come off of what could be moving into at least an upswing on the market in general. Speaking

18:49 of what's happening overseas, you've got HSBC's Hong Kong dollar just launched the stablecoin RedCoin. It hits 50,000 users in its first week. We reported this last week is that Hong Kong is continuing to accelerate as is Asia, Japan, and many others who are moving quickly into tokenized treasuries. Stablecoins used as denominated assets for almost anything you want, including integrating into a lot of commerce. So things are changing in Asia while the U.S. is still very slow to react with no real action coming off the Clarity Act and now pushback from Wall Street. around tokenized treasuries.

19:28 South Korea is trading ONDO like the rest of the world missed the memo. It's now 62.5 times its overseas share on October 31st. This is the biggest gap among 52 different tracked tokens out there. So again, South Korea, another major mecca where we're starting to see activity. The real question, I think, does Asian... is one I've asked many times, does Asia become the crypto mecca of the world going forward? Last up right here is going to hit the market in a big way. One way or the other, it could be that Anthropix Q3 revenue right now, which has surged dramatically to nearly $ 17 billion from $ 1. 4 billion last year, and it's getting ready to hit the open stock market. The real question will be, what is

20:15 the valuation of this company? Does it exceed the $ 1. 4 trillion that was targeted and start to exceed and accelerate? Because if it goes above that, if we see a $ 2 trillion or higher, that's a very, very bullish scenario for the market in general. It means the AI trade is backed If it sucks in underneath that, that's the question that I think everybody's going to be asking, is the AI trade finally over? We're going to be watching this very closely, so stay tuned. If you like this video, hit like and subscribe, drop a comment down below, and also join our free private member group. The link is in the description.