Six Months of War With Iran, With Steven Cook

This episode unpacks the current state of the U.S.-Iran conflict, broader dynamics in the Middle East, and the shifting U.S. role in the region.

Host:

James M. Lindsay (cfr.org/experts/james-m-lindsay), Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:

Steven A. Cook (cfr.org/experts/steven-cook), Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, CFR

We Discuss:

• Who, if anyone, is winning the six-month war with Iran, and how freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's ability to menace its neighbors, and its incentives to pursue a nuclear weapon have all evolved.

• Why the extent of the damage to Iran's nuclear program remains unknown, and why Tehran now has every incentive to dash toward weaponization.

• How the war's decapitation strikes produced leadership change rather than genuine regime change, leading to a situation in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the hardest of Iran’s hardliners now call the shots in Tehran.

• Whether the supposed split between Iranian "moderates" and "hardliners" is real or a Western construct that makes the regime more intelligible.

• What President Donald Trump's "economic D-Day" is meant to achieve, and why it remains uncertain that economic isolation will lead to regime collapse.

• Whether U.S. bluster carries real costs, and how doubts about U.S. credibility have pushed Gulf partners to look elsewhere for their security.

• What the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey actually signals, and whether it represents an alternative to an American-sponsored regional order rather than a true Article 5-style pact.

• Why the United Arab Emirates was left out of the Mecca agreement, and what the rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh reveals about fractures within the Gulf.

• Where the region is headed as the U.S.-led Middle East order comes to an end, and whether a diminished U.S. role and greater regional agency is a good thing.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Steven A. Cook, The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East (global.oup.com/academic/product/the-end-of-amb…), Oxford University Press

Steven A. Cook, “The U.S.-Led Middle East Order Is Over. The Mecca Agreement Proves It. (cfr.org/articles/the-u-s-led-middle-east-order…),” Council on Foreign Relations

Steven A. Cook, “After Iran, It’s Time for the United States to Leave the Middle East (foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/16/iran-united-state…),” Foreign Policy

Marc Lynch, “The End of the American Middle East: Iran and the Last Gasp of a Failed Order (foreignaffairs.com/united-states/end-american-…),” Foreign Affairs

Robert Kagan, “Iran Unleashed (theatlantic.com/international/2026/08/iran-mid…),” The Atlantic

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/six-months-o…

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.