The Iran War and the Midterms

This episode unpacks America’s strategic stalemate with Iran, Trump’s post-midterm options, and how Tehran and the Gulf see the war.

Host:

James M. Lindsay (cfr.org/experts/james-m-lindsay), Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guests:

Cole Bucy (nationalinterest.org/profile/cole-bucy), former CIA analyst; former director for Iran at the National Security Council

Nate Swanson (atlanticcouncil.org/news/press-releases/nate-s…), director of the Iran Strategy Project, Atlantic Council

We Discuss:

• Why the United States has been strategically stuck in the Iran war for months with three bad options: escalate, negotiate, or hold the line.

• How the U.S. blockade and sanctions have squeezed Iran without cracking the regime.

• Why no Iranian elite or military defections have appeared and what that says about the regime’s staying power.

• Whether and how President Trump will “take the gloves off” after the midterms, with options including decapitation strikes and the “mother of all bombs.”

• How Tehran reads American politics, and whether the midterms are truly the pivot point each side assumes they are.

• Why China is the hole in the sanctions “siege,” and how Beijing is exposing the limits of Washington’s power.

• What Bucy and Swanson would advise the White House to do now, and why the Gulf may hold the key to regional security.

Mentioned on the Episode:

Cole Bucy and Nate Swanson, “Trump Unleashed (foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/30/iran-trump-hormuz…),” Foreign Policy

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-iran-war…

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.