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UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Precisely'
US monetary policy is in focus, with Federal Reserve Chair Warsh refusing to give forward guidance on policy at the IMF meetings—then giving forward guidance of a sort. Warsh failed to sound hawkish. The word of Warsh carries relatively lit
Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 74)
On this week’s episode, Burkhard acknowledges the fourth anniversary of the current bull market and weighs whether equities have further room to run, mindful of the impacts to the recent increase in the cost of capital. Burkhard also unders
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Peculiar US price increases'
The US inflation print underscored some established trends. While consumer price inflation has a large fantasy component to it, it seems fairly clear that real incomes have stagnated since January 2025. That means that increases in spending
How should I be positioned? with Steve Chiavarone (Federated Hermes) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Steve joins Jason for a wide-ranging conversation which spans the US macroeconomic environment, equity market performance, the AI capex cycle, Fed monetary policy, and market risk considerations. Plus, an exchange of views on portfolio posi
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation you can’t believe in'
China’s September inflation data was not especially exciting. Food prices kept the consumer price inflation figures moderate (food is nearly 30% of China’s consumer price basket). China is not a noted food exporter, so this has little globa
Top of the Morning: Election Watch - Foreign capitals, state capitols
This edition of UBS Election Watch looks beyond Washington precisely because that is usually where most of the attention is focused during midterm elections. Often overlooked is the impact of US elections on other countries and the impact o
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'A dangerous game?'
Chip manufacturers have been experiencing equity price volatility after Broadcom’s chief executive drew “casino” parallels. (US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent has already demonstrated the danger of making that analogy). The global econo
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Q3 earnings, oil prices, inflation data
Following what was a relatively quiet week for investors, the weeks ahead promise to deliver much for investors to digest - spanning Q3 corporate earnings, September inflation and retail sales data, and more. All of this while risk factors
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The Fast and the Furious'
A lot happened around the oil market: US president Trump announced a deal with Russian President Putin to buy Russian diesel; the Houthis attacked Riyadh airport in Saudi Arabia; Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukra
Signal over Noise: S&P 500 earnings are tethered to private fund flows
Over the past few years, markets have looked beyond a shifting economic backdrop and focused on the prospect of exceptional earnings growth. This episode explores why AI investment has become a key driver of corporate profits, how private c
Talking Markets Podcast Series (Private Credit) with Marc Lipschultz (Blue Owl Capital)
Marc Lipschultz is Co-Chief Executive Officer of Blue Owl Capital and a member of the firm’s board of directors. Marc drops by the 1285 podcast studio to share his perspective on how the landscape for private credit has evolved throughout t
Washington Weekly Podcast: SCOTUS cases, U.S. midterm election update
As the U.S. midterm elections are quickly approaching, Shane identifies the Senate races that he is closely watching, and what polling is currently pointing to. With the U.S. Supreme Court now back in session, we also review some notable ca
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Worrying about the cost of war'
US President Trump’s social media account declared the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections. Other actors in the war may launch attacks. The post does reveal the concern about the political costs of the war, and rekindled s
Talking Markets Podcast Series (Preferreds) with Derek Pines (Bramshill) & Frank Sileo (UBS CIO)
Derek Pines is a Senior Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Bramshill Investments. Derek joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The policy-induced recession risk'
Crude oil prices and diesel prices are up (there seems to be uncertainty about whether last Friday’s pledge to release diesel reserves is actually just confirming previously announced reserve releases). Bonds and equities do not like this.
Top of the Morning: State of the US economy & Fed outlook
With the next Fed policy meeting just a few weeks away, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by the studio to share CIO’s expectations and the factors that will likely inform the central bank’s policy de
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Managing expectations'
The political costs of the Gulf war are evident—US President Trump suggested removing the federal tax on gasoline. Gasoline prices (unlike diesel) feed directly into US consumer price calculations. However, even supposing Congress was in se
Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Mike Cudzil (PIMCO) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
A wide-ranging conversation on the current rate environment, the road ahead for monetary policy, issuance implications, and the landscape for broader fixed income investing, recorded at the PIMCO studios in Newport Beach, California. Featur
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Wash, rinse, repeat
Investors and the Fed got a dose of relatively good economic data last week, yet interest rates rose again. Rising yields remains a dominant market story, however with a light calendar for economic data this week, and Q3 earnings season sta
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Revisions, resilience, and affordability'
The US employment report offered few reliable facts for investors, other than the reminder that data is revised a lot. If markets listened to economists with the reverence they deserve, that would not be a surprise. Markets were surprised—r
Signal over Noise: The 1999 analogue through the fixed income lens
As long-term US Treasury yields have climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades and today's AI investment boom draws comparisons with the internet buildout, the 1999 cycle increasingly offers a useful point of reference. This episo
Across the Pond: Is wealth reshaping the housing market?
Housing affordability is under pressure across many major cities. Yet the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026 shows that housing markets are following increasingly different paths as accumulated financial wealth supports demand in prim
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The labor market anomaly'
The US employment report has a wide range of estimates around the payrolls data. This is not surprising—labor market data precision is challenged by low response rates and structural changes in the way people work. The general expectation i
Top of the Morning: China at two speeds - Reflections from the ground
Xingchen Yu, Senior Investment Strategist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, shares reflections from his latest trip to China, where AI ambition and seamless digital convenience coexist with cautious consumers, fierce competition, and li
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Saving the US consumer'
The important point from yesterday’s US data was not the larger-than-expected downward pressures on reported inflation—these are technical changes that US consumers do not experience in their daily struggles with the affordability crisis. T
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The power of saving more, or less'
UK second quarter GDP was revised stronger, as new methods reveal how much new economic activity has been missed from the data. Rising real disposable incomes encouraged a rise in the UK household savings rate. If the Gulf war does not, in
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Implications of higher rates
The rise in treasury yields continues to be top of mind for investors - Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, explains why they’re rising. We also touch on an outlook for oil prices, new develo
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Bonding oil prices to yields'
Bond yields and oil prices continue their close relationship. Central banks are supposed to look through an oil price shock as being beyond their control. However, if central banks seemingly care about oil, the only policy remedy is to weak
Washington Weekly Podcast: UN General Assembly, US-China summit
Following what was a busy week in both New York and Washington DC, Shane drops by to share some takeaways and reflections on the UN General Assembly, along with the three-day summit involving President Trump and President Xi Jinping of Chin
Top of the Morning: Emerging Markets - Fed hikes matter, but global liquidity matters more
In the wake of the September FOMC rate-hike, we discuss the implications of a Fed hiking cycle to emerging market assets, including equities and fixed income. We also cover the risks to emerging markets that investors should be mindful of.
