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MOVE more important than VIX
Today a look at equity market divergences in evidence on Friday as many stocks were lower, perhaps on the fresh rise in bond yields, while many large cap and momentum stocks did well on the day and are off to a strong start this week. Elsew
Not the BoJ result the JPY bulls were looking for.
Today, a look at the steep JPY sell-off post Bank of Japan rate hike as the market was gunning for a firmer commitment to BoJ hiking and a stronger US dollar was already weighing in the background. Also, the BoE surprised slightly dovishly
Warsh hawkish, but market quick to reverse. Now comes BoJ.
Today, a look at the hawkish FOMC meeting yesterday, especially Fed Chair Warsh's positioning of the rate hike yesterday as merely removing accommodation, together with the sharp market reaction that has been surprisingly quick to unwind in
The AI slowdown narrative weighing more than bond carnage...for now.
Today, a look at a remarkably resilient equity market even as the fresh spike in oil prices weigh and global bond yields have rushed to new highs for the cycle in many key markets. Looking at US equity market internals, the impact of Anthro
Fresh oil supply woes and pondering the agenda behind an AI "slowdown"
Today, a heady cocktail of developments are coming at us across geopolitics, intermarket forces, but especially a new twist in the AI story as Anthropic CEO Amodei calls for an AI development "slowdown" with other key industry voices chimin
Yields explode higher, pressurizing the situation across markets.
Today, a look at the rip higher in global yields as crude oil prices spiked and the ECB surprised on the hawkish side of expectations. The market is trying to recover its equilibrium on hopes that a Monday meeting between GCC members and Ir
Trump desperation grows ahead of midterms. US yields pop ahead of CPI.
Today, we note the fresh pop in US treasury yields to new cycle highs after the Treasury market buyback and Treasury Secretary Bessent's posturing failed to shore up confidence. Elsewhere, it was a rather negative day for risk sentiment on
Is copper too cheap relative to gold?
Today, a thorough look across the commodity space with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, discussing the latest developments in oil, refined products and the natural gas markets, the drivers for the recent record highs in the coppe
Energy prices and yen top market agenda. Copper hits record.
Today, noting the significant technical break lower for USDJPY and what may come next, with spiking energy prices somewhat of a headwind for JPY bulls and for global risk sentiment in general. At what point could energy prices suddenly seiz
USDJPY breakdown despite firm US jobs data
Today, most interesting to note that the positive US jobs report was unable to inspire sustained new highs in US treasury yields or spark a US dollar rally, with USDJPY even breaking down below critical support to start the week as US marke
Big stakes for USDJPY over US jobs report.
Today, a look at the very confusing comments from the Fed's Waller, who waxed dovish so soon after Chair Warsh's recent hawkish musings that the market doesn't know what to do with the next FOMC meeting. Gold and crypto rose sharply on Wall
Markets pause for breath after yield run-up.
Today, a look at markets pausing to take a breath after the recent brutal rise in bond yields. The biggest mover Wednesday and Thursday was the Japanese yen on an apparent fresh round of intervention, although some interesting dynamics are
Have we entered the event horizon for a volatility spike?
Today, we look at the hefty risk-off tone across markets, if with a few notable exceptions, as risk assets are justifiably spooked by the further ramping in global bond yields. We argue that the situation feels like it has entered a zone of
Global yield breakout dominates market focus
Today a look at the implications across markets as global yields are breaking higher at the long end of the yield curve, from the US 10-year, which hit a new 19-month high, to the German Bund hitting a 15-year high and 10-year JGB a 30-year
Warsh spoils the gold party. Busy week ahead.
Today, a look at Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish posturings at the Fed's Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday and the reaction across markets, which seemed most decisive for gold more than for the US dollar or risk sentiment more broadly. Al
Can Fed Chair Warsh give the market what it wants?
Today, a rundown of key commodity markets as oil markets remain tame and refined products are the bigger pinch point, gold and silver seem ready to rally anew if Fed Chair Warsh fails to roll out a hawkish stance in his speech today, and gr
Nvidia does what it can to bring cheer. Dark geopolitics still lurk in the background.
Today, with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo we look through three of the key earnings report seeing very positive market responses, topped by Nvidia's strong report and outlook. We go through the details, the good points and a few conc
Waiting for what may or may not surprise from Nvidia and the J-Hole.
Today, while crude oil prices were crushed by Strait of Hormuz headlines and bond yields responded to a degree, much of the market is in a holding pattern ahead of a string of event risks that may or may not provide what the market is hopin
Geopolitics and US and European yields in the spotlight
Today, a look at the importance and geostrategic implications of the US-Canada trade stand-off, even if the current 50% tariff threat only impacts a small portion of the trade relationship. The geopolitical implications of the US threat to
Bessent panics, gold and crypto rip, equity technicals pivotal
Today, we look at Treasury Secretary Bessent out trying to massage the market again after the Wednesday treasury buyback announcement failed to crush long US treasury yields. The treasury's actions continue to provide fuel for the sharp gol
US Treasury buyback announcement sets fire to the US dollar.
Today, looking of course at the impact of the US Treasury's increase of its treasury buyback program and the knock-on effects across asset markets, particularly the plunge in the US dollar versus hard- and even more so crypto assets. Import
Beginning of a larger bearish correction here?
Today, a thorough look at the commodity space, especially crude oil as hopes for relief from geopolitical tensions fade and how it may be weighing on broader risk sentiment. With Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, we also take a lo
Speedrunning dead internet theory - an SMC listener weighs in.
Today, a brief wrap of yesterday's equity market session in the US, which repeated some of the recent AI hardware vs. SaaS performance divergences. A couple of key AI-chip and hardware names reported with results that didn't satisfy the mar
Treasury market reaction to US CPI the next key
Today, an emphasis on the importance of this US July CPI hurdle today and different scenarios based on what the data shows, all while emphasizing that geopolitics and the crude oil price are a very important independent variable as well. Al
Pressures from macro backdrop building ahead of US CPI
Today, we delve into the ongoing development of the "super el Niño" weather phenomenon, running through the difficulty in assessing the scale of potential impacts. Elsewhere, oil markets and refined product markets are spiking on the latest
Polysilicon supply chains may surprise you. US jobs data today!
Today, a look at how the market is positioned ahead of today's US jobs data and how a surprise - especially a negative surprise - might read across markets. Also, a brief discussion of polysilicon supply chains, which may surprise you, as C
RIP Victor Niederhoffer
Today, we look at the latest market moves as we position the importance of Friday's US jobs report, noting the reaction to key incoming earnings from Western Digital and Sandisk in particular and the impressive rally move in gold and silver
SpaceX's Starmind to start on terra firma. Gold rally a signal?
Today, a look at the very strong day for US equity markets yesterday as the S&P 500 vaulted to a strong new all-time high amidst broad gains across sectors, with tech stocks roaring higher but the Nasdaq 100 not yet reaching a new peak. We
Palantir beats and entertains. What can SpaceX deliver?
Today, a look at the broad market in a positive mood as recent divergences between AI hardware and other names were nowhere in evidence. We zoom in on Palantir's incredible quarterly reports and the wild and entertaining earnings call with
Coordinated JPY intervention and a cleaner AI hardware slate
Today, a look at the implications for a stronger JPY from coordinated intervention as the US has joined forces with Japan to force yen appreciation. As well, we wonder what the implications are for equities now that we trade with a much cle
