Pacific Peak or Phantom Spike? And the Return to Suez Begins.

Pacific spot rates are holding flat while futures signal the peak may already be over, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd just made a move that could mark the beginning of a Red Sea normalization after two and a half years of disruption.
In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover:
• Why Asia-USWC rates are flatlining around $5,200 while the futures curve still points sharply lower, and what that means for the rest of July
• The Gemini alliance's AE15 service switching back to Suez routing and what it signals about carrier confidence in Red Sea stability
• Panama Canal draft restrictions tightening through August as El Niño risk grows, and what history says about the ceiling on disruption
• Maersk's upward earnings revision and why it says more about Maersk's earlier pessimism than the overall market
• USMCA uncertainty and what a US pullback could mean for deeply intertwined North American supply chains
• EU shipping emissions data: container vessels down 6.7% per TEU year over year, even as total emissions remain elevated versus 2023 due to Red Sea rerouting
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