Sharp or Square - NFL Week 7 Reactions: 49ers-Falcons, Bengals-Ravens and more

0:00 Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.

0:16 I am Chad Millman.

0:18 I'm joined as always by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, my co-host, professional better Simon Hunter.

0:25 Hello, Simon.

0:25 Chad, how are we doing?

0:28 Brother, I'm so.

0:29 Overwhelmed by the day that I can't even get the words out of my mouth. I am completely and totally tongue-tied after today.

0:41 First of all, we were adults.

0:45 We did not let ourselves bet on the Tennessee Titans, despite all the wise guy love for the Tennessee Titans. Because who wants to get in front of a fourth quarter juggernaut that is Deshaun Watson. We also did get bullied into not betting the Giants, which was such an obvious smash spot. The good news, none of it mattered.

1:10 We are 4-0 on the day. We won outright with the Bengals, with the Bucs, with the Falcons, with the Miami Dolphins. Only the Bengals was a sweat, and even that was really only a sweat and looked like a dead bet. In the first quarter, we have the Chiefs tonight. We are against the wise guys on that one.

1:35 Will we go 5-0?

1:36 This is our Sunday night NFL Week 7 reaction show. Simon and I are going to recap the glory of the day from our final five kicks and five picks in the Sharp or Square Pro Football Pick'em Contest. Before we get there, I do need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best New way to trade in sports. In the past, if you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in.

2:03 And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all, and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys that are giving you a free $ 25 in your first trade when you deposit just $ 10.

2:24 And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweat pics together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. Download the Polymarket app today. Use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10.

2:43 Simon.

2:47 Our brass balls trade of the week was the Miami Dolphins. They were on the road at the New York Jets. All week, we said we had to be on the Dolphins. We didn't want to do it, but they've been playing tough. They dominated from the get-go, driving, passing, running on a touchdown drive. Crazy first quarter of this game and crazy last seven and a half minutes of this game.

3:16 But in between, the Dolphins were the much, much, much, much, much, much better team.

3:22 They were, but like we said, just two really bad teams. The line never made sense. So we should have just been three, but the public just hated this Miami team, which we totally get. This is a team we've been betting every week, so we've watched a lot of Miami Dolphins football. And I don't understand why they're so hesitant to bet this one. That's why I took some balls.

3:41 I mean, I really did. It's like, it's not a fun bet. It's not one you can tell your boys and they're like, oh, I love that as well. They're all going to say stuff to you, and it's a tough spot to take, but that's what this show is all about, right? Taking really ugly dogs, truly undervalued. And this week, not to say it was a really easy week, but it really was. It was a lazy bettor's dream week if you're a pro. You bet a lot of ugly dogs this week, a lot of outright wins. I mean, this was part of it. This game couldn't have gone our way in so many other ways. There were so many times Miami tried to give it away, but the Jets were just so equally as terrible, they gave it right back. Malik Willis using his legs, passing. All of

4:20 it had a good game. Gordon had over 100 yards rushing for Miami. All the hits finally hit for Miami, and we talked about it. The NFL, the worst teams, they're going to find a way to eventually win some weeks. Whatever it is, Miami versus the Jets. I think I saw some stat now. They're 14-3. Their last 17 straight up against the Jets. Bizarro world. No one knows why.

4:40 It's divisional games. Some teams just own other teams. Miami here. Pretty wild inside the shop. The book today where a lot of guys in there had the Jets in their survivor pools, and it's like, oh, my God. This is going to be brutal because they're already down 14 to start, and they just can never get it back. They got close, but like we said, everything just was going the Jets' way or Miami's way. So, yeah, great bet. And that's, like you said, all the 1 p.m. games, this was the one that never really worried about it because it was four and a half. It was just a great number to have.

5:11 I know. I felt really glad that we stuck to our guns and took the four and a half. We would have been fine with the three and a half too. At the end of this game, it got a little wonky because Miami was up 28 to 14 and had gone up like 28 to 14 late in the game. And the Jets immediately came back and they found ways to make it close. And they got a touchdown on a two-point conversion there. It's 28-25. I'm sure as I did, you would bet.

5:46 On the money line.

5:48 And there was a moment where I was convinced there was just a little bit too much time. And Miami had been going so well. And the Jets had a little bit of the momentum that on that next drive in my head, I was like, this could easily be three and out. Gino pulls a miracle out of his hat. They tie the game and the Dolphins lose this game in overtime. A lot of things had to happen for that.

6:18 That was the only moment I was really sweating. This game was after that Jets two-point conversion.

6:24 Stuff to be, that was an enjoyable watch for me. I never sweated it. It's just, this is a scheduled win for the Miami Dolphins. They're a horrible team. They might only get one other game like this all season. And they just got lucky. It was a great matchup for them. So Yeah, I never– honestly, never really– it was never really on the main TV. The biggest sweat we'll talk about was definitely that Ravens-Bengals game. So that's a game we should probably get to.

6:46 Well, hold on.

6:47 Let's talk about Tampa Bay and Carolina because Tampa Bay was a three-and-a-half point underdog. This was Simon Says. Baker came back. Eight-minute touchdown drive to open the game.

6:58 He's rolling out.

6:59 He's scrambling. He's throwing dimes. Then they score a touchdown. The Bucs defense sacked Bryce Young, forced a fumble. They recovered it to run it back for a touchdown. They're up 17-0 with 11 minutes left in the second quarter. This was my favorite stat, okay? The Bucs were up 26-6 at that point in the game, still in the first half. Baker was just three of six in the entire game at that point when they were up by basically three touchdowns. That was the game. That we never even sweat. That was the game.

7:38 Where at halftime, I started watching.

7:41 I took them out of the four box and put the Browns and the Titans on because that game was sweet.

7:49 Yeah. And I'm sure I had a big game through. I had a fan. I think I talked on the show. I don't know if it was last week or before that. I've been getting back into video games after not really playing them since COVID. Yeah. And I had a fan reach out to me and recommend Diablo 2 on VR. Do you know what VR is? Virtual reality?

8:07 Yeah, yeah, yeah.

8:09 So you have to wear this whole headset. And I hate VR. I own a VR headset. I just never get into it because I am a fat guy who likes to just sit down and play video games. I don't want to be up and moving or anything like that. This guy recommended this game. And he said, if you love it, can you give me your favorite bet of the week, like one you give to the guys you sell your picks to? And I said, of course. I was like, there's no way I'm going to like this game.

8:28 I told him I hate VR. And it's Diablo 2, this game from my childhood, and they've modded it. These people, they've made it into a virtual reality game. So this game I played as a kid, you're in the game now. Like imagine that dream of, I wish I could be inside this video game. It's happened, Chad. So I reached out to this guy. And I just said, grab the Bucs for your life right now, plus three and a half.

8:49 This is like Monday afternoon or maybe it was Tuesday after our show. And the guy's like, how much do you love it? I'm like, I really love it. And as the week went along, I still loved it, but I got a little nervous when it was announced it was Baker because I just love the spot so much for the Bucs. Yeah, yeah. You could have put a broomstick at quarterback. This game would not have mattered for the Buccaneers. Everything that could have gone wrong for Carolina went wrong. This is– As a bettor, this is a dream bettor. I wish I'd bet more on it because it was just a never– you were never going to lose this bet. It was a baker through for 60 yards in this game. Bucky Irving was running it down

9:23 their throat. They couldn't stop turning the ball over for Carolina. It's just– I wish it was always this easy. We talk all the time. You need some luck when you do this. But, yeah, that's when you really trust the spot and trust the model. Like I said, this morning, you're like, would you take the other side? I was like, no, I still have this as a line toward the Bucs.

9:40 Little did I know this was going to be an absolute blowout. So, yeah, this was– you try not to react to it. Good win by the Bucs. Horrible by Carolina. Probably going to have to be on Carolina next week just because everything went wrong. And this is such a nice buy low spot for them.

9:54 Number one, it was so bad for the Carolina Panthers today that they kicked an extra point.

10:00 After their first touchdown.

10:02 It was blocked and the Buccaneers ran it back for two points. That's how bad it was. It was that exact moment that I wrote in the Discord. I don't even know who the Panthers are playing next week, but we're going to have to be on the Carolina Panthers. It's the first one on my list. The line has already moved in the Panthers' direction, which is good news.

10:28 And we will get to that game when we talk about our early leads and who they are playing and where the line is at right now. For those just joining, a little bit of peace today. 4-0 so far on the day with Kansas City pending tonight. We had our brass balls, Miami. We had Chad's choice, which was Atlanta, Simon Says, Tampa Bay. Hit our favorites parlay of Cincinnati, Denver, and Detroit. Hit three of the five underdog round robin with Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Miami. We still have Kansas City pending. We both hit our sharper square with Denver and Detroit. The game that we swept today, Simon, Cincinnati minus one and a half at Baltimore. This morning when we did the show, this was the game we kind

11:17 of wanted to take out. We had such good numbers. We didn't want to mess with it, but what a weird freaking game. Two entirely different games. The Bengals were down 13 at halftime with four minutes left in the game. They were in garbage time because they were ahead so much and Joe Flacco was coming in to do mop-up duty. Weird, weird game. I have so many thoughts on the Bengals and their coaching staff. Uh, but I want to get your take on the tale of two halves.

11:57 Yeah, probably feel the same as you. I was raging. I was, I could not believe how bad the coaching was for the Bengals and start that game where it's just, you're getting third and 11 drill and Zay flower was the only guy who can beat you wide open in the middle with tons of space. Well, you're coming on linebackers.

12:13 The whole thing was bizarre world. So, um, I know players always dismiss second-half adjustments. Obviously, coaches do stuff. While you're eating your sandwiches, drinking your juice boxes, eating your sandwiches, these coaches are doing stuff at half because they came in and they scored five straight touchdowns. The Bengals, they obviously didn't give up anything defensively. They just totally flipped the page. Snoop, we talked about it. He's a good quarterback, but to ask him to come in and win multiple games in a row, it's impossible. I know why Ravens fans are so upset. If this feels like a game, Lamar plays it. They have such a higher chance of winning it because he's not going to just settle for threes.

12:49 He's going to get touchdowns. And, you know, there were just so many opportunities for this Ravens team. And on the flip side, the Bengals, they played possum. They got me. The guy just at halftime, I was like, oh, my God, I am going to kill Joe Burrow. Like, talk about laying an egg. The guy was so bad, sailing balls.

13:05 I mean, throwing medicine balls to his guys. Like, literally, his guys, I'm so happy they all survived. Because second half, it was perfect Joe. Joe, perfect touch passes. Not letting his guys get hit, putting perfect placement on the ball for guys going out of bounds. Joe was a totally different quarterback like you saw in the second half. So, yeah, we got away with one. It was a really easy bet.

13:24 We've got a plus number on it. You still could have bet a plus one and a half, like I said, on Friday, and everyone hit it. I don't know another person that was on the Ravens until this morning. I was like, okay, Ravens plus three now. I'm going to take a position on that. But, yeah, just another really bad line with the books, and they got killed.

13:44 You mentioned the Zay Flowers stuff. The Ravens had a third and 13 inside their 10-yard line. Snoop hit Zay Flowers for first down between two Bengals who had no idea what they were doing.

14:01 They were looking at each other like, do you got him? Do you got him? It was like that Spider-Man meme.

14:06 He had already had an easy touchdown catch and run to.

14:10 Open the game. The Bengals.

14:13 That first half, they had 10 plays midway through the first half, 28 yards versus 27 plays for 171 yards for the Ravens. Zay Flowers in the first half, six catches, 120 yards, and a touchdown. And then in the second half, like you said, something flipped because they didn't score any points. Zay Flowers had 17 yards in the second half. Like they just went down the field, down the field, down the field, down the field. Like within 24 minutes of the first 24 minutes of the second half, quarter and a half, they had scored five touchdowns. It was just, it was phenomenal. This to me is also a Zach Taylor issue. Like we have seen the Bengals for years.

15:13 come out slow to start a year. And then we see them come out slow to start a half after they've had a week off. What the fuck is this guy doing that he cannot get his team ready when the game actually starts? They looked like they were still on their bye through the first half.

15:30 Yeah, but it doesn't matter because they scored five straight touchdowns in the game. So he's going to get away with it, but I'm right there with you. It's like, this guy is so bad. They look so unprepared. But like you said, it's just a classic case of a bye week came out sloppy and slow. And same thing happened in Minnesota. So that's just some teams come out, you know, firing all cylinders after a bye week. Other teams sleepwalk through it. And yeah, that first half, it felt like it was just punt, punt, three and out every time with this Bengals team. And they totally, they flipped it on us. It was an incredible second half.

16:01 San Francisco at Atlanta. This one was Chad's choice. Close at two and a half. It had been at three and a half most of the week. This is going to be a luck rankings game. And we happen to be on the winning side of it because the Falcons looked so good and then so bad. The Niners looked so good, then so bad. The Niners, the only thing that stopped the Niners was themselves in this game. You know, four turnovers in the Falcon side of the field. They missed the extra point. But the way the Niners were playing early I'm like, Jesus Christ, the Falcons might get run out of the stadium.

16:45 Yeah, but they were due. Like we talked about, they were just due for a stinker. They were playing at such an insanely high level despite all the injuries. And we talked about the injuries are going to have to catch up to you. It's just, the NFL's too good. These teams are all too good and health matters. And in this game, it honestly really didn't because Purdy's that good.

17:05 I mean, offensively, like you said.

17:06 That's what I was thinking.

17:08 Whatever he can make work, he makes it work. But, He eventually just had stupid turnovers. That sideline pick was bizarre. Yeah, just bizarre. Not very Purdy-like. He just doesn't make those kind of stupid plays. I said it. He was the least sacked quarterback coming into this game. They would do for a bunch of sacks. To only give up five sacks through whatever it was, six weeks, that's insane. I think Hurts got sacked five times in their week one game.

17:32 Quarterbacks usually have hits. They're going to take hits. Purdy was just doing so well, and Atlanta– they're bad in the secondary, but their strength is up front. They get a ton of pressure. That front four has been really good for Atlanta this year. So another game, we just didn't overthink it. We played the spot and we didn't really care. We had a bad number, right? It was a number we heavily bet at three and a half and three. Said I had no problem still taking the two and a half. It was just like, you're just not, you don't overthink this one. Just simply play the spot, play the number. And even the two and a half came into play where it was like a weird lineup where I think at one point they're only up six

18:06 and then luckily they drove the field or at a turnover and got the field goal. So it didn't really matter, but it lined up anyway, whereas there was like, okay, we're never in doubt here. Other than what you said, the really sloppy start where we're dying. They, once they came back and we've seen the NFL now you're really, if you're down 14, three in the first quarter, it's, it's irrelevant. The new, the way the NFL is now, it totally is. It's just, we can't help ourselves. We're humans.

18:28 And I'm just like, you're when it started, it's like, Oh God, This 49ers team might be an absolute juggernaut. But luckily, they're not. They're human. And that's what we'll see tonight with the Chiefs, right? The Chiefs, like everyone's betting on them. They're betting on them to have a bad game. If they don't, they break all the rules.

18:41 They're the juggernaut this year. They're like the best team because, like you said, Chad, you saw two 6-0 teams today really struggle. And one guy lucky to be 6-0, and that's Minnesota. The other one, not so much of the 49ers.

18:53 Yeah.

18:53 So to me, this was a crazy sequence that was indicative of the game. It was in the second half, they're up 19-14, and the Falcons are getting destroyed on defense. This is before that. They cannot stop Brock Purdy. They cannot stop Kalen Black. After Christian McCaffrey is out of the game, they force back-to-back fumbles while the Niners are driving.

19:23 But the Niners recover the first, and the Falcons get the second. And then they go down and score. and they end up going into the half 19-14. That was amazing to me that they just consistently kept getting those turnovers.

19:37 And then you mentioned.

19:39 Purdy.

19:39 He was driving with ease into the third quarter through a terrible, ill-advised pass against the sideline. It almost looked like he was trying to throw it away and just couldn't get it there. And that was the second time they had sort of like the Lions later in the day had blown a really good opportunity inside the red zone.

20:03 What was I just going to say? Oh, I still worry about Purdy, man.

20:06 Like He was making some plays there in the future when he's got his wits about him. Dude, they're going to be a dangerous, dangerous team. I think we just got away with one a little bit today, but I'm happy to have it. Happy to have it because we also bet him on the money line.

20:21 So there you go.

20:26 We got Kansas City plus two and a half at Seattle tonight. We are the only people in the midst of the professional betting and myself tangential professional betting community that seemed to be on the Kansas City Chiefs. The trend you just mentioned, you want to fade teams that have been covering like the Minnesota Vikings today, like the San Francisco 49ers today, like the Kansas City Chiefs. So that's a big reason why this number has changed. Quickly in your head, Are you feeling more confident, less confident based on anything you've been hearing throughout the day?

21:09 No, I hate it professionally. I hate it because it doesn't feel right what we're doing where I should be on Seattle. But like we've talked about, I just don't think the Chiefs have played their best game yet. There's still a lot left on the bone, in my opinion. I think defensively, I like their matchups against the Seattle team.

21:25 And I'm trying to just trust the instincts here. It was the same feeling I honestly had with Denver today. Like Denver... was a bet i was pretty heavy on you had no interest in it you really didn't have that feel for that game i was just like okay i think this division this denver team is better than people perceive i feel the same about the chiefs where i think they're better just because they've played weak competition i don't know how true it is but um yeah just professionally lies this is just i hate going against the books in primetime games especially on a super public dog i mean we saw a public dog today and the giants win. And that's what Chad's talking about though. It's, it's rare. The public is all in on a dog

22:01 and they win, not just went outright, but cover same will be for the chiefs. The chiefs in my homes is always a public dog. And I've talked about he's 10 and one as an underdog against the spread. So yeah, I'm trying to stick to it, but yeah, it's not, not the greatest. Like you said, the other two teams are undefeated, just had all the bounces go against them today. And, Minnesota found a way because the Colts are that terrible.

22:24 I don't know if the Seahawks are that terrible. They're a championship caliber team, and this would be their third straight loss if they lose this game. So I'm really excited for it. It's like I have a lot of betting to it. I have a big– I had a big Tennessee Titans teaser plus seven and a half with this, the Chiefs teaser. No way. Yeah, I had a bunch of teasers. I got really lucky this week with teasers.

22:44 Because obviously we were all in on Minnesota's teaser and that. They didn't cover it, but they hit the teaser. Yeah, yeah. Same thing for this Chiefs team. I would just be shocked if they lose by a touchdown. But Chad's alluding to it. It's a lot of the trend's favorite, and I gave out that trend. Sam Darnold, 7-0 against the spread on primetime games since he's left the Giants, or the Jets. He's been really good. Minnesota primetime, he's been really good for the Seattle Seahawks. So we'll see if that trend continues. It's just my home's effect. I can't believe I'm with the public here, but I saw some sharp tell me it was like, I think he said it was like 90% of the money was on the Seahawks and me and you were suckers for taking, I mean, 90%

23:24 of the money was on the chiefs and we're sucking, taking them. I said, it's fair. But like I always say, the public, they, they, they've been pretty good this year reading some of these ugly dogs. So hopefully this one comes through.

23:35 The Los Angeles Rams talk about what the wise guys were doing.

23:39 They love the Raiders.

23:40 This one moved from five and a half down to three and a half, never a competitive game. The Rams came out, they made the Raiders look like the Raiders and, that we expected them to be.

23:50 I'm not off the Raiders for the year, but.

23:55 I never understood why professional bettors were backing the Raiders in this spot. The Rams proved that they are still not a terrible team, and Matthew Stafford got to do exactly what he wanted to do against a Raiders defense that could not sustain.

24:14 Yeah, I still don't hate it. The Raiders, I think they're a good team. This was, to me, a game that tells a story of two tales. The Rams, I didn't think they were going to be a playoff team, honestly. I thought this would be the type of game where the Raiders are a playoff team, in my opinion. They would win this game, and that's what you set up for the rest of these two-team seasons. I was dead wrong.

24:31 The Rams, like Chad said, they came out. They had a lot of stuff bounce their way. Kirk Cousins, he was terrible for two and a half quarters. I mean, two and a half. The first half, he was bad. The third quarter, he was bad. Then eventually, once he got it together, It was already too late because Stafford had such a good game. And, you know, the defense can't stop the running. I mean, they gave up 199 rushing yards. I mean, that's just insane.

24:53 Every time I looked up for that game, it's another one I stopped watching at halftime. Every time I looked up, Kyron Williams was pointing like he had just gotten a first down or a touchdown.

25:06 Yeah, the big thing, too, for a lot of guys, especially for me, I was trying to get ahead of the Puka movement. If Puka was out– They've been a great number because there's probably going to be a three by kickoff. And that was another position where it's just, you know, it was plus six at this time on Sunday.

25:19 It was a good position. But, yeah, that's the risk made in the Raiders. And Kirk Cousins, we live and we die by him. He tried his best to get us back into it. But like you said, they just can't stop the run defense of the Raiders. They're just a bad team. And that's life when you have bad drafts for 10 years. They're just so behind the eight ball in certain positions. It's going to be another year or two, right?

25:41 They will be interesting next week. It's another one we might want to talk about. Indy at Minnesota, look, I love the Vikings today.

25:52 They were terrible.

25:55 Even though their defense held the Colts to 10 points, they blissed 85% of the time. Every time you looked at that game, they were giving up a third and long and letting the Colts stay in the game. And offensively, they just couldn't execute. They were grinding, grinding, grinding. Such a frustrating game. When the Vikes finally went up at 1310 early in the fourth, I got a cash out offer at about 60% of my bet. I almost pressed the button to take it. And then I'm like, you know what? I think the Vikings are finally starting to get it together. I didn't take it. And obviously I didn't benefit from that because I lost the bet.

26:36 Yeah, it's just– it was a– we should have bought low on the Colts. It was a buy low spot. Yep. We knew. Like you said, the Vikings, I don't know how they're doing it. They're winning every week, and it's just disgusting. It's ugly, and it's gross. But that defense, man, they're just so good. Daniel Jones, we knew he was going to be bad in this game. 108 yards passing. Like, it's just– there was no hope. He has no weapons.

27:00 There's no one that can get open. Every time he dropped back, the Vikings were licking their chops. They were going to blitz six or five. Someone was going to get a sack. Minnesota, the key final weight is the wins. It's really impressive. Obviously, I loved coming into this season. I never would have jumped them to be 6-0 at this point. It's really impressive what they've done. As much praise as we give KOC, he's getting killed right now because obviously J.J. McCarthy looked great again today. It's another game where Kyler Murray, he's giving you something, but it's really next to nothing. He's just so inconsistent right now.

27:37 And it doesn't make sense what this is a quarterback offense. So it's tough. It's like, I want to be excited about the Vikings because it's so it's, it's amazing. They just keep finding ways to win, but they've looked so bad. This is a team where it's like, do we want to fade them down the stretch or just kind of figure it out? And they're going to be a juggernaut come December. It's, it's a really hard team to kind of get a read on.

27:56 Well, look, that's what, I was betting into today and trying to get ahead when this offense has started to look decent for a game and a half before they went into the bye. And my theory was that with the bye and with Kyler a little bit further removed from the concussion and with a healthy Justin Jefferson back, this was going to be a KOC offense. We were going to see the Vikings in full bloom against a bad Colts team with no weapons. And instead they couldn't do crapola. the entire game offensively. And meanwhile, the defense, as good as they were, they allowed eight of 15 on third down conversions. That's why the Colts stayed in the game. That's why the offense for the, for the Vikings was struggling so much. They could barely get into

28:41 a rhythm because the Colts kept staying on the field. So that was really frustrating.

28:47 Disappointing.

28:48 Scored 10 points.

28:50 No, no, I get it. I know, but I needed the Vikings to score 17 points.

28:55 Yeah. The defense literally did nothing wrong. I mean, yeah, that sucks, but.

28:59 Or I needed the Colts to score seven points and the Vikings to score 16 points. But there were a couple of times where the Vikings defense let me down.

29:07 That's all I'm saying.

29:08 They were great, but as a better, they let me down a couple of times today.

29:12 They let me down. Exactly eight times. They let me down.

29:17 I want to talk about one more game. Green Bay at Detroit, because we were watching this game together at the.

29:21 End, landed on three.

29:24 What, A juggernaut offensive game with two teams that were so bad and did not seem like they wanted to win this game. Packers missed multiple field goals. They had stupid penalties. They had penalties that shouldn't have been penalties. Dan Campbell is like going forward on fourth and five and his own 25 with four minutes left. I tried to find the logic in it. Here's what I came up with. Dan Campbell was thinking, just so people know at the end of the game, if they didn't see it, It's 17, 17. The Lions have the ball fourth and five at their own, say, 25-yard line. And no, fourth and one at their own 25-yard line. They had a second and one, didn't get it. A third and one, didn't get it. So now they're going forward on fourth

30:18 and one. My thinking is you're an idiot. But my thinking is also, all right, either your defense holds into a field goal, they get a touchdown. could be a missed field goal, given everything that's going on. You're just giving yourself the max amount of time to get the ball back instead of punting to the Packers, them having a long drive and potentially winning with a last second field goal. But I also think it just might've been a stupid idea.

30:45 Yeah, to me, it was one of the dumbest things we saw all day. I couldn't believe what was happening in real time. And his defense has played well. They've only given up 17 points to a really high powered Green Bay offense. And Obviously, they had a missed field goal, and that's part of it, but the fact that the guy came in and missed another field goal from 20 yards away, just Campbell got lucky for being a crazy person, and I know what to make of this Lions team.

31:11 This was such a great spot for them. They should have rolled this game and won big time, and we talked. Josh Jacobs was by far the biggest difference maker for Green Bay. He came in. It was just incredible. Catching the ball out of the backfield and everything he does for Green Bay, he's just, he's so good. And Green Bay should have stole that game. The kicker really let him down. And Jordan Love obviously didn't have his best game where we've seen him take a lot of those 50, 50 balls and it's worked out for him in a couple of games. And today just didn't, right. He just threw a lot of those 50, 50 balls in it.

31:41 It was just not heading for him. So yeah, type of game where I, I, I once again, I tried to overreact to him. It's like, if you got Detroit minus two and a minus two and a half or minus three, that was a sharp bet. And, If you'd waited and just took Green Bay plus three and a half, that was also a really sharp side. I mean, it was just a really competitive divisional game that both teams, like you said, it felt like neither team wanted to win.

32:03 But it just feels like when I watch these games, they want to win so bad that both teams lose their minds. And I know LaFleur's going to have a field day. I don't know if he will because he'll get fined. But he was losing his mind about the refs. They were absolutely killing him in this game. So, yeah, someone that was on Detroit on two and a half as well, it's like I feel like I got really lucky with that cover and win.

32:22 Terrible game.

32:23 It was honestly the most frustrating game of all the games we watched today. Obviously being a Detroit backer, just super frustrating. Final thoughts on Dallas and Philadelphia tomorrow night, Monday night football in your hometown. Philadelphia's a four and a half point dog right now.

32:43 It's tough. I would say from people I talk to inside the locker room, the vibes are just so low and defeated and I would hope this is a rallying game. It's a rivalry game, but it's also the type of game, if they get up 14-0, I don't know how hard the guys are going to be fighting. And it's just all bad right now coming out of Philly. So Dallas, they've been embarrassing this year. I mean, it looks like the Giants are literally the only team that wants to play this year, the NFC East. They're just the only competitive team week to week where every other team has just been laying a bunch of eggs. And Dallas losing this game would not be shocking. So I bet the Eagles, but, yeah, it's– Not even my top 10 of bets this week. I

33:25 just have no faith in this team, this locker room. But it's a big number. Home dog, primetime game. I'm the sucker. The Bucs need that coming in bet this Eagles team. Because why else would anyone bet them? They're just terrible. And if Dallas gets up 14, I don't know if they come back.

33:40 All right.

33:40 Like we said, recap. Chad's choice. Winner, that was the Falcons. Simon Says, winner.

33:45 That was the Bucs. Brass Balls, winner. That was Miami.

33:49 Sharp versus Square. I had Detroit. winner simon had denver winner our discord grouper of the week was a kansas city minnesota teaser we need kansas city to uh cover the nine point portion of that teaser our closing time was uh minnesota minus six and a half we lost that one simon who's your hero of the week.

34:19 Oh, man, that's tough. We have so many to choose from because it was such a good week for us.

34:23 Do you want me to go first? I got one.

34:26 Yeah, yeah, far away.

34:28 I mean, it's got to be Joe Burrow. The team was dead in the first half. Joe Burrow was 6 of 12 for 43 yards. In the second half, he's 16 of 18 for 243 yards and four touchdowns. Like I said, Joe, shout out to the old heads, battered Flacco. was in the game doing mop-up duty for the Bengals with more than four minutes left. They scored four touchdowns in about 24 minutes of gameplay. And like I said, credit to the defense, Zay Flowers, 17 receiving yards in the second half after he torched them for 120 in a touchdown. In the first, the Ravens did not score in the second half.

35:15 I like that we have all of them. crutch phases, like words we use to bridge words. And right now your bridge phase is like, I said, which I like, like I said, like I said, for me, I'll give it to our guy Malik Willis.

35:28 Like I said, like, like I said.

35:32 Big day for Malik, 200 yards passing two touchdowns. I think he ran for like 40 yards, ran for another touchdown. He just carried us. He was our savior today in that game where the jets, they tried. I mean, they put up 25 points. The Gino never died. He, had the two pointer and we needed Malik to come in and get that first down. And I'll be going at a couple of big runs and it all worked out.

35:52 So yeah, here of the weekend, their first one of the season, Malik Willis, the Miami dolphins.

35:57 Nice choice. Nice choice.

35:59 Shame, shame, shame on you. My first is going to be the Vikings offense. How you could not get it done today. They also had multiple times where they had third and ones, fourth and ones in the opportunities to continue driving the ball down the field. And they could not convert against a really terrible Colts team. And their defense gave up, you know, eight first downs on third downs.

36:32 And a couple of those led to scores. So you got to choose somebody.

36:36 You got to be critical. You got to shame somebody. They're the ones because they didn't cover the hook.

36:41 I'm going to go with the Tennessee Titans defense and Robert Sala. You're letting Deshaun Watson come in and put up 27-0 at home in the ultimate trap spot. My God. People keep saying this man is not a coach. I thought it was just Jets haters. I think they're right. What does he do? What does he do? In a game that was gifted to them, Like, you have a running back that scores three touchdowns, run for 120. Like, it was just all there for Tennessee. Just an ultimate trap spot. And, you know, we're going to keep giving out the stat because it's shocking that it's real. They're now 0-13 straight up after they win a game. That is insane how bad Tennessee is and how far they have fallen. So, shame on you, Salah. Tennessee's defense, just

37:31 embarrassing giving up 27 at home.

37:33 Simon, you can't blame Robert Salah. When he's trying to confront and overcome the magic of Deshaun Watson in the final two minutes of a game. That's not on Deshaun Watson. That's not on Robert Sala at all. That's just on the circumstances because Deshaun Watson is just that good.

38:00 I'll blame him for the first half then. Giving up 17 in the first half is embarrassing.

38:04 Let's talk about some early leads.

38:05 The first one I want to talk about is Carolina is now a three and a half point underdog on the road on Thursday night at Green Bay. The line was three. It is now three and a half. I don't know how we're not taking Carolina in this game.

38:20 Yep. Short week, quick turnaround. They got embarrassed. Flip side, Green Bay displayed a highly physical game. Same thing, short turnaround.

38:29 So many injuries for Green Bay.

38:31 Yeah, including their center as well. Yeah. Yeah, plus three and a half. We knew Carolina was going to be undervalued, and like you said, that was a number I knew right away. As soon as that game was over, it's like, okay, probably going to be on them whether I like it or not. I really wanted to be on Green Bay at two and a half. Went right to three, up to three and a half as soon as that Carolina game gave up whatever it was, that 24, 30 points, and all of a sudden they gave up 43. This number's exploding now, three and a half, like Chad said. So, yeah, early value right now is on Carolina.

39:01 I am seeing 1.4 out there as well. So I don't know if that's indicative, but at a lot of other places, it's 3.5 and still minus 1.10. So I don't know if that is indicative of where some money's going. That's interesting to me. But I do think people should grab the 3.5 for Carolina while they can.

39:23 Another game that I was looking at, maybe you want.

39:26 To talk about this one quickly because uh the Las Vegas Las Vegas Raiders are one point underdogs to the New York Jets and like you I I don't think the Raiders are a terrible team I do think the Jets could be a terrible team.

39:44 Yeah it's a tough read maybe you're right maybe I should grab that right now but um I would just wait and hope to get to two. Once it gets to plus two, that's how I'll take a position on the Raiders. Because right now, if you just want to take the money line, it's minus 102. Pretty much a pick going at most shops.

40:00 Okay. Cleveland Browns plus four.

40:06 There we go.

40:07 On the road at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

40:10 Grab it. Grab it. It's going to be three by Sunday.

40:14 Right?

40:14 Right. Of course it is. Yeah, just international team coming home. We've basically been in the same spot multiple times this week. We've just fade these teams that skip the bye week and they all look sluggish in the second half. So that's what we expect here. And it's a nice spot for this Cleveland team that they just play really close divisional games as well. And they've been playing really close games a lot this year. So we might be stepping in it. This is definitely probably a Steelers line here.

40:43 We're maybe overvaluing this Cleveland team, but I think they can win this game. You're telling me I'm getting three and a half, four right now? I'm going to grab that number.

40:50 Well, look, it's another one where I'm already starting to see for the Cleveland Browns, it was at four, and now it's generally consensus.

41:03 Three and a half. So you're right. It's moving in the other direction. I got one more for you. You ready?

41:13 Yeah, buddy.

41:15 Atlanta plus one and a half at Tampa Bay.

41:21 Like you like Atlanta.

41:22 I think I do.

41:23 I actually, I just don't know why I think Tampa Bay is being favored because of today. Even though I think Atlanta got kind of lucky with the game today, they were also playing one of the best teams and one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league right now.

41:41 That's right. I got no read on that game, honestly. Okay.

41:45 What am I missing?

41:47 Just lines I want to grab now, and even though it's disgusting, I'm severely biased right now in my current state. Miami's plus 7.5 at home against the Patriots, where Patriots, everyone's going to bet on. They're off extended rest, coming off a loss. You expect Drake to bounce back. So it's just a line I know I'm going to try to convince us to stay away from all week. I'm just going to grab it right now just in case it does go down because it's giving me the 7.5 for the hook. Alright, another one that jumps out. Just an ugly, ugly dog, but Arizona plus 6.5 against the Cowboys.

42:23 I mean, they're horrible, but they backdoor semi-decent defenses. Why would they not backdoor the Cowboys?

42:31 And they don't quit.

42:33 Yeah, they don't quit, and that's a lot of points, man. So, I'm going to grab that right now. Worst case, Cowboys blow the Eagles out, and this goes up to 7.5, and I bought a bad number, but Just for early bets, that's a key number. It's 6.5, so I'm just going to grab that now just in case. Cowboys look bad, and this number drops down to 4.5.

42:49 All right.

42:52 We'll get more into it as we get into the Tuesday show. Reminder, we're 4-0 on the day. We are on the Kansas City Chiefs plus 2.5. We are riding with the public. We are hoping they can come through for us to give us a 5-0 week.

43:09 We will be back.

43:10 On our Week eight betting preview on Tuesday. This has been Sharper Square presented by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe.

43:28 Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Tuesday.

43:32 Love you. Here comes Jared Allen and.

43:36 He's out of bounds. Poor guy. I don't even know if he realized it. and that's a safety he didn't even know he was out of bounds tough situation for a young quarterback