Imminent Squeeze?🚨Crypto Market Update

0:00 An imminent squeeze could be underway. And the real question is, how do the midterms play into it? We're going to dive into all of that stuff today. Before we do that, I want to thank our sponsor. That's iTrust Capital, where you guys can get into your own crypto IRA, cryptocurrency, stocks, gold and silver, all available over on iTrust Capital. One account, unlimited possibilities. This is one of the platforms they've been around for quite a while. You guys can go over and use them. If you have a current IRA, you can transfer that. If you want to start a brand new IRA, you can also do that as well. So just use our link down below. It's going to give you a $ 100 funding.

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0:36 And you're going to have to start tax planning soon. And IRAs are one of the diversification things that you should be doing to set yourself up for success. Let's get into it. Let's go to the first clip here. And this one gets into where we are in this current cycle, because many people think this is the final innings of this correction.

0:54 Take a look.

0:55 Would you call it a sell-off, I guess, some rotation or weakness in the overall averages?

0:59 You think that's over and we're going to start having better market performance at this point?

1:04 Well, I think the average stock is done. I mean, it's been a really nasty correction. It started in June, right? I mean, this is sort of the rotation from early to mid-cycle. You had the momentum unwind. You've had this now concern around the sustainability of the AI capbacks. You have a Couple wars going on. You have the midterm election anxiety. So, yeah, there's a lot that's been digested by the markets. If you look at the breadth of the market, it's been terrible. So I think we're in the final innings of this, but we still got to get to the next probably two to three weeks. And I think we can still finish the year pretty strongly and definitely into next year.

1:34 All right.

1:36 So two to three weeks. He's pointing toward midterms. That's where we are right now. You're recording October 20th. Basically, you've got about 13 days in. So the real question is, is how does that play into the markets? Post-midterms, do we see a major move into that? If you look at what Scott Besson is stating, he's saying that America.

1:56 Is and must grow our way out of debt.

1:59 And what he references here is economic growth, tighter government spending, all essential to addressing America's debt burden. A couple of points he hits here. Iran, he claims Iran's currency has collapsed. Panic is setting in and its economy could deteriorate sharply. This, of course, somehow is going to benefit the American economy.

2:19 And then Besson also maintains a positive outlook on the U.S. economy, despite these energy price pressures that we're continuing to see. And that's the big critical component that is going to continue to push against inflation. It's going to continue to push into the decisions around the Fed and what that looks like.

2:37 All of this still up.

2:38 In the air, I think, until after midterms. And I'll explain a little bit why that's important here in a second. Remember, though, this was on another note. France just put out something that was brand new, and this is in reference to an approved crypto. This actually got approved around crypto to stablecoin conversions. So you're selling your Bitcoin or your ETH to USDC. You're going to get charged 30% now for a crypto tax. One of the countries that have started to go in this direction, we're probably going to see a lot more tax proposals out there around the world.

3:09 Be watching those really quickly.

3:11 Let's jump back to the economy here, because there are some things here that could indicate more pressure on the market, and especially to what that previous analyst was talking about is, are we through kind of the thick part right now? Let me go and take a look at this clip.

3:28 So do we need a print before? You just said 7%.

3:31 So what do you think? Subtract core or headline inflation? Well, it's basically half real, half inflation. So this is the whole thesis of letting the economy run hot to try and grow out of your debt problem.

3:41 So you think GDP is running hot right now?

3:43 Oh, absolutely.

3:44 That's why rates are up so much.

3:45 And that's why rates are up.

3:46 And that's why stocks are OK, generally. I mean, they've been OK this year.

3:49 We're up 10%, 12%.

3:49 A lot of stocks have corrected now in the last two or three months because we're adjusting to a Fed that's now responding. We've always said, right? Stocks are fine, okay, with rates going up as long as growth is good and the Fed's not killing the cycle. And that's what the market is questioning. Is the Fed going to pull away the punch bowl too quickly here and not allow the economy to run? We don't know the answer. So I think Kevin Warsh has the right philosophy here, which is like, look, I can't control the oil market, right, as the Fed chair. I can't really control the speed of the economy. He knows rates are going up. He's allowing rates to go up, and he knows oil prices are up. That's your natural governor. 7%, probably 7%, 8%

4:28 is probably too hot. So let the market do the tightening for him, whether it be oil and or rates.

4:35 All right, so some things to consider there.

4:36 That strategy, of course, could boost wages, get into a position of lower unemployment. But in many cases, that would be a little bit of a triggering moment because you could get up with higher inflation. If that happens, obviously, we could see an economic scenario that plays out in the market as well. Higher inflation if we get into it.

4:55 So it's kind of a tightrope that is being walked right now. And all of this is really centered around the midterm election. Even Iran has been, and we've talked about this on the show before, is they are deliberately prolonging any engagement or negotiation with the U.S., mainly to deny Trump a political victory ahead of the November midterms.

5:15 Now, many people will.

5:16 Say, all right, well, let's say that after that occurs, the issue is dealing with the Senate and, of course, the House now being flipped, if in fact it does get flipped, into a Democratic control.

5:29 What actually gets done? Because most likely there's going to.

5:31 Be a lot of turn toward Trump And almost every entity related to Trump in terms of congressional hearings, impeachments, you name it. I wonder if they're going to have time to even negotiate with Iran because they're dealing with what's coming out of these houses. Other things that play into this is, of course, oil prices. Oil prices have been a big signal on how inflation is being translated.

5:55 Here's what happened.

5:56 Oil prices this morning come down 3 percent last two hours. Reports this was in reference to another preliminary approval.

6:02 Not going to happen.

6:04 In fact, this is what happened. You get a rebound after we see the situation where there is no deal. And here's what I don't understand, guys, is why is everybody buying this and continuing to see these whipsaw type approaches? Because this is exactly what's happened over the last 18 months in different market scenarios, especially in the last year with oil. So I just don't understand unless the market is, of course, has the other side of it, which is the manipulation of what's happening.

6:35 With oil prices.

6:35 So I don't know if you guys are investing in energy, but at least not maybe long term is fine, but definitely not on a trade. I want to go to a clip real quick because we're going to get into where midterms will clarify everything.

6:48 Take a look.

6:49 Is the market in the midst of a reset? I think this is a very interesting point in the market where we're noticing a very large differentiation between the institutional investor and the retail investor. So on the institutional side, there's rules-based unwinding based on either price or volatility level, but our retail clients continue to buy the dip pretty aggressively.

7:13 In fact, retail last week bought semiconductors, neoclouds, memory stocks at the largest rate in 16 weeks. At the same time, institutional clients continue to de-lever. Is the earnings all clear to get back in, or is it the midterm election? Everyone is using the midterm elections as a level that is a clearing event for risk. And specifically, I think that's the period when AI can outperform again. So the feedback that we're getting from our clients is happy to buy higher, but not buy now into a major price.

7:51 political event and on the geopolitical side, continue to be dominated by the macro tape.

7:57 All right.

7:58 That was Scott Rubner, who comes in from Citadel. And what he's talking about is what we are really facing right now. And that is, do we get a tech unwind? If a tech unwind does occur, what is that going to look like in terms of entering risk assets, which is what we're talking about today?

8:15 You look at.

8:15 Bitcoin right now, it seems to be that retail is starting to lead in, at least in the interim.

8:22 And this is going into a midterm. So again, many things can happen.

8:26 This is going to be a very volatile two weeks going into the midterms. The real question is on the other side, is there going to be something that starts to loosen up here? Citadel seems to think that might be the case as a clearing event.

8:38 For risk assets.

8:39 Other things, you have ETFs happening out there with BlackRock just had its biggest inflow since the start of 2026. The only recent I bet net inflow this large was a few months ago in August. So you can kind of see it. I'll zoom in on that right there so you can see the chart. Pretty crazy. $ 665 million on October 19th. So nice little move. The other thing they launched was this right here, which was PBIT. Many people will call it something else. You guys will know what I'm talking about in the comments. But BlackRock is now filing a limit to a Bitcoin's fund loss per tranche.

9:12 This means It kind of holds you down to about a 10% position in terms of a loss. But in exchange, you only get a cap number of gains. So it's kind of a little bit more of a safe play. I don't know if people are going to be going with this, but maybe there will be. Traditional finance, you know, might actually go into that if they're brand new to crypto and thinking, hey, this is the way.

9:33 I can go.

9:34 I can only lose 10%. even though my max is only set at this. So if you look at what BlackRock is doing on the security there of saying, hey, I can only lose 10%. Now you have JP Morgan coming in and saying, hey, we think this is going to happen, meaning Bitcoin is going to outperform every major asset class over the next 10 years. And they're setting at a compound return of around 10%. It's interesting because I think you're going to see a situation where you have investors simply saying, hey, I'll go this route, which is kind of the safe route. Granted, I may not get the upside, but look at what I'm getting here compared to what is maybe a slower growth for Bitcoin over the next decade. If you guys agree with that

10:13 or not, let me know in the comments. I think Bitcoin ends up outgrowing this And BlackRock wins both ways. So big deals coming out there for sure. Institutional capital coming in hot. Let's jump over to the Bitwise staking report. This is the Q4 report. A couple of points I want to highlight. Ethereum staking hit an all-time high.

10:33 43.8 million ETH.

10:36 Guys, that's 35.9% of the supply. You also have a stake rising while yields fail. And this, of course, is with things like Solana, Near Protocol. and a handful of others, including Hype. So one thing to look at there is that you've got institutions here that are committed, simply meaning that they're locking this up. They're holding 35.9, 36% of ETH supply. And they're not worried about the situation where a stake rises while yields are falling. So they're just holding right through this. So again, that kind of points to institutions playing in this game much, much more. Speaking of that, you've got a major institution in Hong Kong that have now listed a licensed digital asset, stablecoin, that's

11:21 going to be traded over on Jupiter. This simply means is China starting its entry into DeFi and is it coming through Jupiter? We've talked about Jupiter many times here on the show. You guys know you can follow the token.

11:33 Look at the app, though.

11:34 I would invite you to go out and take a look at the app because it's a pretty interesting app of what you can do in terms of DeFi. One of the best out there, I think, right now. Other things that are happening, of course, we have to reveal what's happening with Ethereum and Sharplink.

11:49 This was the latest news.

11:50 Sharplink deployed $ 400 million in ETH to earn yield. At the same time, the company was increasingly exploring restaking in DeFi to make their ETH treasuries more productive. While that was happening, you had Joe Lubin and ConsenSys selling $ 48 million worth of Sharplink.

12:08 This is a point that has kind of been hit on.

12:11 Now, many people would look at the two telling stories here and say, oh, this might look bad for Ethereum, but in reality, the Ethereum is.

12:18 Not being sold.

12:19 And in fact, it may be setting up for one winner in the long term when it comes to ETH DATS.

12:26 And we all know who that most likely will be. It looks like it would probably be a BM & R. Lubin and holders linked him.

12:32 To hold, told regulators the sales was to liquidate their position. One video that we just did here, guys, I'm not sure if this was going to land first or second. But make sure and check out the SEC findings.

12:43 We revealed a lot of that.

12:45 And it also gets into an interview that is a good one to watch around tokenized securities. If you're into stocks and what it's going to look like in DeFi, that's the one for you. We'll be covering more, so stay tuned. If you like this video, hit like and subscribe, drop a comment down below, and also join our free private member group.

13:08 The link is in the description.